Delivering valuable analytics solutions AND landing the benefits Dan Scott, Head of AM Transformation, SEAMS

Transcription

1 Delivering valuable analytics solutions AND landing the benefits Dan Scott, Head of AM Transformation, SEAMS

2 Introduction This session will describe the 7 year journey that London Underground has been on using detailed asset analytics and decision optimization and translating this into the that is delivered on the ground. This presentation details the journey that we took the LU Track Asset community on in order to embed complex analytics at the heart of decision making and achieve the benefits of doing so.

3 Introduction First, a little about me Joined Metronet Rail BCV in 2004, ed on various complex projects that required careful trade-off of requirements Transferred to London Underground following the end of PPP in 2009 Took over as Head of Track Asset Management in 2011 as LU was ing towards achieving PAS55 accreditation Led Asset Management in Track (and later other asset areas) until 2017, including through ISO55000 accreditation. 3

4 The early years Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track

5 The Public Private Partnership Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track

6 Process as I found it Gather asset data Carry out modelling, identify scope Create business case and get spend authority Miasma of plans, strategies and reports Close project, demonstrate benefit delivered Asset Management Erm.. How?

7 Process as I found it Gather asset data Carry out modelling, identify scope Create business case and get spend authority Miasma of plans, strategies and reports Close project, demonstrate benefit delivered Asset Management Wait.. What..? Look at all of s Decide which s we should do See how much money those guys have got Decide what we can afford Walk away Capital Delivery

8 Process as I found it Gather asset data Carry out modelling, identify scope Create business case and get spend authority Miasma of plans, strategies and reports Close project, demonstrate benefit delivered Asset Management????????!!! Look at all of s Decide which s we should do See how much money those guys have got Decide what we can afford Walk away Capital Delivery Look at all of s (all the time) Ignore everything everyone else is doing Inflate last year s opex budget by RPI plus new s Plan? What plan? same we always do Blame failures on those other idiots Maintenance Delivery

9 Additional pressures Mayoral reliability target Funding getting tight Competing for cash with high profile projects 9

10 Additional pressures This was not going to happen On 1 st May 2012 HRH Queen Elizabeth II declared this 300 yrds track Renewed 10

11 What should the process look like? Work delivery level across multiple sites / Programme level Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Asset level across multiple assets and asset types Identify the asset intervention strategy 11 The greater the collective strength of the 6 elements, the greater the value that will be delivered by the business.

12 Asset cond. and Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Take the learning from the previous element and bring it into the many different assets that constitute the system. Combine the root cause and general issue information with specific asset information to identify the impact that each asset has on the overall outcome both now and in the future. 12

13 Identify asset intervention 13 Based on forecasts in the previous element, and an understanding of the goals and constraints of the business, identify the various different intervention strategies and select the Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan

14 Develop the overall plan Bring all of the various asset intervention strategies together into a single overall plan along with any non-asset requirements and optimise by seeking to synergise delivery resources, access, logistics etc.. Ensure that the overall plan is aligned to, and delivers the business strategy. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan 14

15 plan Deliver everything in the overall plan across various sites to required quality and cost. Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Identify the asset intervention strategy 15

16 success/ failure Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan the effectiveness of the current process in terms of delivering value (e.g. cost, reliability, safety etc.). Identify where the current delivered plan across various sites is not giving the expected outcomes and carry out root cause analysis to identify the causal factors. 16

17 Define the Strategy Definition of an overall Strategy to steer the plan towards delivering the maximum value for money. Identification of business improvement activities by reviewing the maturity of the delivery of the other five elements. The maturity of the overall process is limited to the maturity of the worst performing element. Prioritise areas for focus and improvement. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan 17

18 Ideal process for driving value Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Identify the asset intervention strategy 18

19 London Underground Pre PPP Typical reactive approach to Asset Management, responding directly to what was found in each asset inspection. Driven largely by a lack of any long term budgeting for asset investment annual hand to mouth process. 19

20 LU the PPP years Strategy produced but not particularly mature. Overall delivery plan largely driven by PPP incentives, i.e. predominantly volume delivered Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ 20

21 21 LU Experience - before Attempts made at portfolio level planning, but this was exclusively driven around maximising the use of track closures and ignored penalty for early or late replacement. Not much of a look ahead so little optimisation was possible. Early attempts to identify the asset interventions but these were early in the maturity cycle and was generally overridden in the plan when other s were deemed more efficient. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ Very little effort targeted at improving the business. led from the delivery arms. Work delivered was either chasing bad KPIs or was reactive and driven from the immediate concerns of the given day No formal attempt to understand the root causes of failure, or to update the strategy or approach in response Reactive approach to delivery driving a contra-flow in the business process.

22 LU Experience Step 1 Through detailed shops with track engineers, agreed new methodology for calculating residual life. Linked residual life to maintenance effort and probability of failure through data analysis. Identified asset criticality and introduced full optimisation capability. 22 Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements

23 LU Experience Step 2 Introduced improved change control and project close out processes. Tracked actuals against forecast for cost,, volume delivered and asset reliability on a 4 weekly, quarterly and annual cycle Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Identify the asset intervention strategy 23

24 LU Experience Step 3 Introduced Measured Life calculation to the assessment of current condition. This brought maintenance bank data, track measurement data and rail defect data into the calculation to insulate against the impact of poor data quality in register. Also served to strengthen buy-in from the maintenance teams. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan 24

25 LU Experience Step 4 Developed an improved asset strategy with a more pictorial/diagrammatic approach and refined through stakeholder shops. Spent time communicating the strategy to all business groups to ensure that the overall strategy was well understood. Develop the overall delivery plan strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Identify the asset intervention strategy 25

26 26 LU Experience Step 5 Altered the engineering validation process and the maintainer s validation process so that they no longer led to direct input into the delivery plan, but instead became an input into the track model. Introduced the concept that the model must always contain the most complete understanding of the current state of. Introduced review process to refine asset information and model logic to close gaps between forecast and actual. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan

27 LU Experience Step 6 Introduced processes to use model to forecast impact of timetable changes on maintenance and long term renewal requirement. Process to test business cases for line closures to deliver s. Introduced planned maintenance forecasting and inspection optimisation. Tested and optimised delivery plans to ensure best overall value return. Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan 27

28 LU Experience End Game Closed the loop on the overall process and ensured that all was filtered through a clear understanding of whole life value at and asset level before being optimised as an overall programme of that was fully aligned with the overall business strategy. The quality and success of the is understood and there is a continuous improvement process which seeks to drive up the long term forecast accuracy of the models. 28 Develop the overall delivery plan Identify the asset intervention strategy strategy/ improvements the success/ failure of the plan Implementation of the new process was carried out in collaboration with community and against a clearly defined set of objectives. Everybody s knowledge and experience was valued within the process which helped to build a cohesive collective thought on how to proceed. Work well received both internally and also externally, which helped to cement confidence at a Board level in the quality of the plans and forecasts

29 Pre-PPP Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Process Model 29

30 During PPP Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Process Model 30

31 Post PPP, re-enter public sector Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Process Model 31

32 Improving processes Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Process Model 32

33 Final processes Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Process Model 33

34 The result on the business Track condition, reliability and totex cost by year km of Plain Line Track Life Expired Passenger disruption Totex cost of track Passengerdelays reduced by ~ 70%. Track totex cost reduced by ~$130m p/a Track Assets carrying more services than ever before Process Model 34

35 35 Any Questions?