BPS Reliability Risks and NERC RISC. Ryan D. Quint, Advanced Analytics & Modeling, NERC WECC RAC Meeting October 2017

Transcription

1 BPS Reliability Risks and NERC RISC Ryan D. Quint, Advanced Analytics & Modeling, NERC WECC RAC Meeting October 2017

2 Reliability Issues Steering Committee (RISC) RISC reports directly to NERC BOT; provides front-end, highlevel leadership and accountability for nominated issues of strategic important to BPS reliability Develops ERO Reliability Risk Priorities Report 2017 Risk Profiles approved Nov 2016 (currently revisiting) 2 Changing Resource Mix Bulk-Power System Planning Resource Adequacy and Performance Asset Management and Maintenance Human Performance and Skilled Workforce Loss of Situational Awareness Extreme Natural Events Physical Security Vulnerabilities Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities

3 Risk Profile Levels High Risk Profiles Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities Changing Resource Mix BPS Planning Resource Adequacy Low Risk Profiles Asset Management and Maintenance Human Performance and Skilled Workforce Moderate Risk Profiles Loss of Situational Awareness Physical Security Vulnerabilities Extreme Natural Events 3

4 Risk Mapping 4

5 Changing Resource Mix (Risk Profile #1) ERO Enterprise should: 5 Assess the risks associated with single points of disruption of natural gas as well as the uncertainty of supply Use special assessments to inform and educate policy makers, regulators, and the industry of reliability effects and interconnection requirements Gather data and insights on distributed energy resources in an effort to improve visibility, predictability, and the dispatchability needed to support BPS reliability Continue to provide independent technical assessments on reliability issues stemming from proposed regulatory rules or statutes as well as any significant tariff rules related to the changing resource mix Further develop lessons learned based on operational experience with variable energy and distributed energy resources Benchmark and support technical studies on frequency and inertia response, voltage support, short-circuit analysis, and inter-area oscillations

6 BPS Planning (Risk Profile #2) ERO Enterprise should: Coordinate with industry, manufacturers and developers of asynchronous resources to develop and make available accurate dynamic models Identify the type and frequency of information needed from distributed energy resources Create guidelines and best practices for developing and maintaining accurate system, dynamic, and electromagnetic models that include transmission, resources, load, and controllable devices for use in long-term and operational planning Continue to assess ERS performance to develop necessary guidelines and to determine if Reliability Standards are required Continue to collaborate with Planning Coordinators to expand development of interconnection-wide models commensurate with expected dispatches 6

7 Resource Adequacy and Performance (Risk Profile #3) ERO Enterprise should: Continue to improve modeling and probabilistic methods with industry to evaluate resource adequacy to include impacts from ERS, unit retirements, and load and resource variability during different timeframes Assess and develop mitigation recommendations to address single points of disruption that will result in large resource outages Develop new measures of reliability beyond reserve margins, including the sufficiency of ERS Continue to assess vulnerabilities of fuel availability as part of evaluating resource adequacy and operational capability Industry should evaluate opportunities to develop more accurate shortterm load forecast models Analyze data requirements necessary to ensure sufficient detail on capability and performance of the BPS as it is impacted by distributed energy resources 7

8 NERC Activities Assessments & Input Special Reliability Assessment: Potential Bulk Power System Impacts Due to Severe Disruptions on the Natural Gas System Probabilistic Assessment Working Group (PAWG) Comments on FERC NOPRs Frequency Response Studies for Changing Resource Mix Short Circuit Strength, Modeling, and Coordination Studies Special Reliability Assessment: Inter-Area Oscillations Tracking & Trending Essential Reliability Services Working Group (ERSWG) Metrics voltage, frequency, and ramping ERS Sufficiency Guidelines LTRA & SOR Voltage and Reactive Devices 8

9 NERC Activities Reliability Guidelines & Reports Special Reliability Assessment: Potential Bulk Power System Impacts Due to Severe Disruptions on the Natural Gas System Distributed Energy Resources Sub-group (DERTF) Report Reliability Guideline: Integrating Inverter-Based Resources into Low Short Circuit Systems Reliability Guideline: Power Plant Model Verification for Inverter-Based Resources Reliability Guideline: Inverter-Based Resource Performance Reliability Guidelines: DER Modeling Blue Cut Fire Disturbance Report IEEE-NERC TF on Low Short Circuit Systems 9

10 NERC Activities Modeling Engagement MOD-032 Designee Feedback Loop Case Quality Metrics Assessments NERC Acceptable Model List Industry-Coordinated Model Improvements & Recommendations Lessons Learned STATCOM Aux Power Loss Loss of Wind Turbines due to Transient Voltage 10

11 Ryan D. Quint, PhD, PE Senior Manager NERC Advanced Analytics & Modeling (202)