GWRC Scenario Planning Phase II

Transcription

1 GWRC Scenario Planning Phase II DRAFT SCOPE OF WORK/BUDGET PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF & SEVEN HILLS TOWN PLANNING G ROUP A PRIL, 2014

2 BACKGROUND Your Vision, Our Future completed in 2009 (Scenario Planning Phase I) CommunityViz model developed to test alternative land use growth scenarios Community Plans Growth Scenario used for FAMPO 2040 CLRP Update (Phase I preferred alternative)

3 PHASE II OBJECTIVES Update and enhance CommunityViz model to increase its value to GWRC members Continue transition and ownership of CommunityViz model to GWRC/FAMPO Examine potential alternative transportation futures and their implications Produce socioeconomic datasets for 2045 CLRP Update

4 PHASE II SCOPE OF WORK 1. Advisory Services Related to CommunityViz and FAMPO Travel Demand Model Applications 2. CommunityViz Database Verification/Update Support 3. CommunityViz Model Enhancements 4. Interim Horizon Year Allocation and Analysis 5. Test Alternative Transportation Scenarios (e.g., Futures) 6. Meetings & Documentation

5 TRANSPORTATION SCENARIOS 1. All-in-Transit What are the implications if transportation infrastructure and land use planning initiatives are enacted aimed at significantly reducing automobile travel? 2. Region of Telecommuters What are the implications of a significant labor force shift from commuting to telecommuting? 3. Thinking Cars What are the implications of a future where ITS and vehicle technologies expand the operating capacity of existing infrastructure?

6 TESTING METHODOLOGY Run CommunityViz for All-in-Transit scenario Community Growth Plans Scenario for Telecommuting & Thinking Cars scenarios Run FAMPO travel demand model to quantify 2045 systemwide MOEs used for Phase I Perform corridor-level analyses for US 1, VA 2 & VA 3: Existing 2045 Community Plans Growth Scenario 2045 All-in-Transit 2045 Telecommuting 2045 Thinking Cars

7 PHASE II PRODUCTS Updated and enhanced CommunityViz model Interim horizon year systemwide model results 2045 socioeconomic datasets for 2045 CLRP update efforts Transportation Scenario Summary Report Systemwide MOEs Corridor Analysis Results Discussion of cost, planning and implementation implications

8 TASK ORDER DETAILS Chris Gay (PB) & Matt Noonkester (SHTPG) key people PB travel demand model and corridor analyses SHTPG CommunityViz Schedule: 1 year Project Budget: $145K

9 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia February 12, 2014 Mr. Lloyd P. Robinson GWRC Director of Transportation Planning FAMPO Administrator George Washington Regional Commission-Fredericksburg Area Metropolitan Planning Organization 406 Princess Anne Street Fredericksburg, VA RE: Scenario Planning II Task Order Proposal Dear Mr. Robinson: This letter presents our proposal to conduct a follow-on phase of the Your Vision, Our Future scenario planning initiative that was completed in Background Your Vision, Our Future was a scenario planning initiative to develop socioeconomic data for the George Washington Region, which was used to forecast future travel conditions as part of development of the 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Scenario planning represents the next generation of analytical processes created to evaluate the influence of development intensities and land use patterns on the efficiency of a proposed transportation system. This initiative confirmed that stronger linkages between land use (demand), urban form (design), and transportation (supply) could significantly improve the efficiency of the regional transportation system; while also promoting a variety of local planning initiatives underway revitalization of cities and towns, suburban place-making, rural preservation, and protecting the natural environment to make the region more livable and economically-viable. The software tools for Your Vision, Our Future afforded FAMPO the opportunity to study five distinct growth scenarios for evaluating the relationship between land use, urban form, and travel behavior. Testing of alternative development scenarios validated the planning process and built support (both empirical and political) for the preferred growth scenario used to develop socioeconomic data for the FAMPO Travel Demand Model. The preferred growth scenario prepared under Your Vision, Our Future Community Plans Growth Scenario met federal rules and requirements for updating the FAMPO Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Specifically, it considered land use and development controls reflected in adopted local government plans and ordinances for preparing the document. Data and tools for the preferred growth scenario informed the LRTP planning process, and were useful for identifying, prioritizing and scheduling certain transportation projects included in the 2040 Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan. Objectives of Scenario Planning II Effort The Scenario Planning Phase II effort will build upon the work completed under Phase I and examine the transportation and land use effects of three future transportation scenarios: 1. All-in-Transit Growth 2. Region of Telecommuters Growth 3. Thinking Cars Growth 1

10 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia Each of these scenarios is described in detail below under our Task 5 technical approach description. The objectives of this Scenario Planning Phase II task order are as follows: 1. Provide value to the regional local governments by providing them with transportation and land use analysis tools and data they do not currently have, in addition to updating them on CommunityViz; 2. Reduce the cost of FAMPO s next Long Range Transportation Plan update by simplifying the socioeconomic data development phase of that update; 3. Provide a meaningful and up to date examination of the implications of potential future scenarios in terms of their effects on transportation infrastructure costs, local land use planning and operations of key arterial corridors in the region; and 4. Transfer ownership of data, tools and outcomes from the consultant to FAMPO staff so that future scenario planning efforts can be performed in-house. Scope of Work Task 1: General Advisory Services Consultant representatives will be available throughout the scenario planning process to provide client staff general guidance related to regional scenario planning, application of CommunityViz software, and application of the FAMPO travel demand model in the context of this scenario planning effort. Regular coordination under this task will occur via conference call or on-line, screen-share meeting. A maximum of sixty (60) man-hours of labor are assumed under this task for budgeting purposes. On-site meetings and briefings are included under Task 6. Task 2: Database Verification Support The objective of this task will be for FAMPO staff to verify and/or update data in the CommunityViz model for use in this scenario planning phase. The consultant team will provide a technical support role under this task.. The client will review city and county comprehensive plans in the George Washington Region adopted since July 2012, and verify or update place type or development status data (as appropriate) for the Community Plans Growth Scenario, which was the preferred scenario from the Your Vision, Our Future effort. Focus will be on new, major development projects built since 2012 and/or land use changes reflected in the future land use map of locally-adopted comprehensive plans that may have occurred since Your Vision, Our Future was completed. The consultant team s role under this task will be to provide training and technical oversight to the client up to a maximum of eighteen (18) man-hours. Task 3: CommunityViz Model Enhancements The objective of this task will be to enhance the current CommunityViz model (e.g., the model version used for the previous effort) to include: 1) updated data inputs from Task 2 above, 2) adjusted formulas and lookup tables, and 3) updated equations in the model architecture. This will be a joint effort between FAMPO staff and the consultant team. The client, with assistance from the consultant, will review the sub-region and region CommunityViz models created for Your Vision, Our Future, and adjust formulas and/or lookup table formats to improve overall model performance. The consultant will fill the role of project advisor under Task 3 (except as noted in the paragraph below). The client will be responsible for revising the sub-region and region CommunityViz models as a technical training exercise for working with the models independent of the consultant. Changes will focus on lessons 2

11 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia learned from building scenario planning tools for Imagine 2040: Triangle Region Scenario Planning Initiative (Raleigh-Durham, NC), CONNECT Our Future (Charlotte, NC), and Piedmont Together (Greensboro-Winston Salem, NC) since Data for the Community Plans Growth Scenario will be used to enhance the FAMPO CommunityViz model (see Task 2), which will then be available for subsequent tasks in the Scope of Services. The consultant will update equations in the FAMPO CommunityViz model architecture to switch from parcels to graduated grid cells for the dynamic data layer (up to 10 variables will change equations), which will improve overall model performance, minimize run time, and reinforce the regional nature of the scenario planning initiative. The product of this task is a revised set of equations under the same dynamic attribute names in the current model. The budget for this task assumes that development of the final revised set of equations will require no more than two rounds of iteration. Task 4: Interim Horizon Year Allocation and Analysis The objective of this task will be to run the current FAMPO Model (Version 3.0) for the 2020, 2025 and 2035 interim horizon years. These runs will be performed using socioeconomic data based on the Community Plans Growth Scenario. The testing of these interim horizon years was not performed in Scenario Planning Phase I. The consultant will develop scripts in CommunityViz to allocate growth by horizon year used in the FAMPO Travel Demand Model. Scripts will follow a step-up process, where the previous horizon year becomes the base year for allocating new growth in the next horizon year. The consultant will also work with FAMPO staff to migrate output data from CommunityViz to socioeconomic datasets by horizon year required to run the FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0). Three interim horizon years are anticipated for the task: 2020, 2025 and The socioeconomic datasets for all three horizon years will be based on the Community Plans Growth Scenario. The current FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) will be run by the consultant for the 2020, 2025 and 2035 horizon years with the updated socioeconomic datasets. Outputs from the model runs will be evaluated using the same model scripts and measures of effectiveness (MOEs) developed by FAMPO staff for Your Vision, Our Future in System-level MOEs will be reported at a regional level only for each horizon year. These system-level MOEs will provide input to FAMPO as they evaluate the results of each horizon year. Task 5: Test Alternative Transportation Scenarios The consultant will define and test three alternative transportation scenarios to support preparation of the FAMPO Constrained 2045 Long Range Transportation Plan. Descriptions of each of these three alternative transportation scenarios, as well as the proposed modeling approaches to test each one, follow: 1. All-in-Transit Growth Scenario The All-in-Transit Growth Scenario considers how the region might develop if initiatives were enacted to shift a significant number of single-occupant automobile trips to transit trips (either regional bus or commuter rail) or vanpool trips. Government investments in the transportation system would focus on the infrastructure required for a viable transit system in the George Washington Region, while each city, town, and county in the Region would also adopt rules and procedures in their local plans and development ordinances that require minimum participation criteria for promoting transit and vanpool trips in the private sector. Opportunities to live, work, shop, and be entertained in mixed-use, walkable transit activity centers (existing or proposed) would draw people to transit service areas. Significant investments in an expanded transit system, reduced service headways, and inter-regional connections (especially to Washington, D.C. or Richmond, VA) would connect activity centers in the region and reduce residents need for a car to satisfy their daily travel needs. Specific transit and 3

12 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia vanpool service enhancements/technologies for the growth scenario will be finalized in consultation with the client. This transit-oriented scenario will necessarily result in changes to the land use development characteristics projected under the Community Plans Growth Scenario. Therefore, FAMPO staff, with assistance from the consultant, will update and run the enhanced CommunityViz model developed under Task 3 to produce a socioeconomic dataset unique to this scenario. The FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) will be run by the consultant for this scenario to quantify the same system-level regional MOEs produced in Task 4. The travel model run will be performed for one horizon year (2045) utilizing the socioeconomic dataset produced by CommunityViz for this scenario. Since the mode choice component of the current FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) is not capable of reflecting an all-in-transit transportation scenario, the consultant, with input from the client, will develop and apply factors to the model s person trip origin-destination trip tables to reflect the effects of an expanded transit and vanpool system. This will, in effect, be a manual sketch-level mode choice analysis that will rely on research and relevant mode share data from FAMPO and other sources. Potential data sources include, but are not limited to, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG), Census and Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) data. Results of Transportation Research Board NCHRP and TCRP research efforts will also be investigated. 2. Region of Telecommuters Growth Scenario The Region of Telecommuters Growth Scenario considers how the region might develop if a significant number of people in the labor force were able to shift from traditional office work to telecommuting for meeting their daily employment responsibilities. Working from home would eliminate a significant number of home-to-work and work-to-home trips on the regional transportation system in both the morning and evening peak periods; reducing the urgency to widen some major transportation corridors in the region. The location, type, pattern, or intensity of development advocated for in the region would be influenced by access to high-speed, reliable internet. The FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) will be run for this scenario by the consultant to quantify the same system-level regional MOEs produced in Task 4. The travel demand model run will be performed for one horizon year (2045) utilizing the socioeconomic datasets produced by CommunityViz for the Community Plans Growth Scenario. The consultant, with input from the client, will develop and apply vehicle trip reduction factors to the model s home-based work origin-destination trip tables to reflect the effects of a dramatic increase in telecommuting. Appropriate telecommuting trip reduction factors for the travel demand model will be developed based on consultant research and coordination with the client. 3. Thinking Cars Growth Scenario The Thinking Cars Growth Scenario considers how the region might develop if automotive technologies were advanced to a point where more capacity was available in the existing (or proposed) regional transportation system. Major automotive technology advancements could lead to reduced following distance criteria, free-flow or timed speeds to eliminate vehicle stops and starts, coordinated vehicle movements, or optimum routing based on congestion levels. All of these advancements would benefit the existing transportation system. The location, type, pattern, or intensity of development advocated for in the region would not be influenced by technological advancements for thinking cars. The FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) will be run for this scenario by the consultant to quantify the same system-level regional MOEs produced in Task 4. The travel demand model run will be performed for one horizon year (2045) utilizing the socioeconomic datasets produced by CommunityViz 4

13 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia for the Community Plans Growth Scenario. The consultant will investigate and apply changes in the model s roadway network coding parameters to reflect the potential effects of automotive technology advancements. For example, roadway link capacities and/or speeds could be increased as a way to reflect the benefits of these types of technologies. The modeling analyses described above will quantify regional system-level MOEs for each of the three transportation scenarios which can be compared to the previous results from the Phase I effort. However, it will be important and useful to also examine the potential effects of these three scenarios on traffic operations along major arterial corridors. This corridor-level analysis will enable the team to compare corridor operations under five scenarios: 1. Existing Conditions Community Growth Plans Growth Scenario All-in-Transit Scenario Region of Telecommuters Growth Scenario Thinking Cars Growth Scenario The consultant will perform corridor-level traffic operational analyses for three corridors in the region US 1, VA Route 2 and VA Route 3 for each of the five conditions listed above. Each corridor analysis will rely upon output from the FAMPO Travel Demand Model (Version 3.0) for each scenario and AM and PM peak hour intersection Synchro analyses. Synchro analyses will be performed for up to five (5) key intersections within each of the three corridors (15 total locations). The key intersections for analysis will be identified in consultation with the client. It is envisioned that existing INRIX data from the FAMPO Congestion Management Process update effort will be used to support key intersection identification. Future AM and PM peak hour traffic forecasts for each scenario at the corridor intersections will be developed by using the raw assignment outputs of the travel demand model runs to derive growth factors that will be applied to the existing peak turn movement volumes in the Synchro files to be provided to us. Work under this task and the associated budget estimate assumes that Synchro files (with existing traffic counts) for existing conditions at the fifteen key intersections will be supplied by the VDOT. The consultant will perform the Synchro analyses for weekday AM and PM peak hours. This scope of work does not include development and testing of improvements to the intersections; however, this type of analysis can be performed as an addendum to this task order. Results of this task will be summarized in a Development Scenario Summary Report similar to the document created for Your Vision, Our Future in This interim report will include a discussion of the potential implications of each future in terms of their effects on transportation infrastructure costs, land use development plans and challenges related to their implementation. The results of the corridor operations analyses will also be included in this report. Task 6: Meetings & Documentation The consultant, as an extension of client staff, will meet with key stakeholders in the planning process to update socioeconomic data for the FAMPO Constrained 2045 Long Range Transportation Plan. Target groups may include: FAMPO / GWRC staff, a project steering committee, VDOT representatives, George Washington Regional Commission, FAMPO Technical or Policy Committees, elected officials in the Region, special interest groups, or the general public. Coordination may occur via , conference call, screen-share meeting, or onsite presentation (up to four separate trips are assumed in the budget) as directed by the client. 5

14 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia A Final Report, which includes the interim report from Tasks 5, as well as the methodologies and results of all other tasks, will be produced in draft and final form. Five (5) hard copies of the final report along with a digital PDF document file will be delivered to the client. A User s Manual for the FAMPO CommunityViz Model v. 2.0 will serve as a reference to the client s model development team as they perform future work independent of the consultant. General headings in the document will include: computer hardware requirements, study area and sub-regions, key terms and definitions, data inventory and analysis, growth control totals, employee space ratios, data manipulation, model architecture, model components, and model calibration. A technical appendix will accompany the user s manual, and summarize the definition, formula, reference data, nested indicators, user-defined parameters, and reporting geographies for indicators and dynamic attributes embedded in the CommunityViz model. The format and content of the user s manual and technical appendix will follow closely documents prepared previously for the Imagine 2040: Triangle Region Scenario Planning Initiative (Raleigh-Durham, NC) and CONNECT Our Future (Charlotte, NC). Five (5) hard copies of the user s manual and technical appendix along with a digital PDF document file will be delivered to the client. Staffing and Schedule This effort will be led by Chris Gay of Parsons Brinckerhoff and Matt Noonkester of Seven Hills Town Planning Group. Technical travel demand modeling and traffic operations analysis support activities will be performed by Parsons Brinckerhoff staff. Parsons Brinckerhoff is prepared to initiate work on this task order immediately upon receipt of a notice to proceed. We envision that this task order can be completed within approximately twelve months. Project Cost Our task order cost budget proposal is detailed in Table 1. The total estimated cost for this task order is $144,951. Sincerely, Chris Gay, AICP Contract Manager 6

15 475 Springpark Place Herndon, Virginia