Predicting the Markets Chapter 5 Charts: Predicting Inflation

Transcription

1 Predicting the Markets Chapter Charts: October 1, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-1 October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

3 3 Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, monthly, ratio scale) * Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly from 19 to 19, daily thereafter. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 1 / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

4 1 1 Figure 3. Average Hourly Earnings Production & Nonsupervisory Workers Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Figure. UNION MEMBERS (as a percent of private wage & salary employment) 1 Private Sector Union Membership (.7) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

5 Figure. AGE WAVE & INFLATION Age Wave* 3 Inflation Trend** * Percent of labor force 1-3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure. PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS (-quarter percent change, annual rate) Q Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

6 Figure 7. GDP PRICE DEFLATORS (9=1) Information Processing Equipment (9.) Software (9.1) Q Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Figure. RETAIL SALES: ONLINE SHOPPING (as percent of In-Store + Online shopping) Aug 3 1 Online Shopping* (as a percent of In-Store* + Online** ) (.) * GAFO (general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture, and other sales) includes retailers that specialize in department-store types of merchandise such as furniture & home furnishings, electronics & appliances, clothing & accessories, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music, general merchandise, office supply, stationery, and gift stores. ** Electronic shopping and mail order houses. Source: Commerce Department and Haver Analytics. Page / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

7 1 Figure 9. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*: War of 11 (11-11) CPI** Cold War (19-1) World War I ( ) World War II ( ) Civil War (11-1) * Base index from 1 to 197 is 197 = 1. ** 19-=1. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the US. 1 Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: ADVANCED ECONOMIES CPI (.) Jul Source: IMF. - Page / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

8 3 Figure 11. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN CPI (-.) 1 Aug Source: Haver Analytics. - 1 Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES: DURABLE GOODS (percent change) US (Aug=-17.3) Eurozone (=-1.) Japan (Aug=-1.) Sweden (=-31.) Switzerland (=-7.) Taiwan (=-.9) UK (Aug=-7.1) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Page / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

9 1 1 Figure 13. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: CHINA PPI (.1) Source: China National Bureau of Statistics Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: EUROZONE ECB s Inflation Target CPI (.) Source: Haver Analytics Page 7 / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

10 Figure 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JAPAN 3 Core CPI* (-.) BOJ s Inflation Target Aug * Excluding Source: Ministry food. of Internal Affairs and Communications Figure 1. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATORS: TOTAL & CORE PCED Headline (1.) Core* (1.7) Fed s Inflation Target Aug * Excluding food and energy prices Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

11 1 Figure 17. WAGE INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 1 1 Unemployment Rate (percent) 1 Average Hourly Earnings: Production & Nonsupervisory Employees Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1 Figure 1. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (percent, sa) Underemployment Rate* Plus Unemployment Rate (.7) U- Rate** (9.7) Unemployment Rate (.) * Total number of people working part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force. ** Unemployed plus marginally attached Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 9 / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

12 Figure 19. ATLANTA FED S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER Wage Growth Tracker Overall (3.3) Average Hourly Earnings Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (.7) Aug Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Figure. NONFARM BUSINESS PRICE DEFLATOR & UNIT LABOR COSTS 1 1 Nonfarm Business Implicit Price Deflator (1.1) Unit Labor Costs (.) 1 Q Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 1 / October 1, 1 / Chapter Charts: www.

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