Lesson 5: Relevance. October. Macerata, 21 st. Andrea Gramillano, t33 srl

Transcription

1 Lesson 5: Relevance Macerata, 21 st October Andrea Gramillano, t33 srl

2 Agenda What does relevance mean? Assessing the needs Context Indicator The SWOT and PEST analysis

3 Utility / Relevance: Definition The term RELEVANCE, in the context of an evaluation, refers to the appropriateness of the explicit objectives of the program in relation to the socio-economic problems it is supposed to address. In ex ante evaluation, questions of relevance are the most important because the focus is on choosing the best strategy or justifying the one proposed. (European Commission DG REGIO EVALSED GUIDE) UTILITY is used in ex post evaluation connecting the real impact with the social needs.

4 Utility and Relevance Related Evaluation Questions In relation to the project To what extent are the programme objectives justified in relation to the needs? Can their raison d'être still be proved? Do they correspond to local, national, international priorities? Are the expected or unexpected effects globally satisfactory from the point of view of direct or indirect beneficiaries? (Source Evalsed)

5 The Relevance Evaluation Process Identify the theory of change Collect context information Set the correct indicators Assessing the needs and objectives SWOT analysis

6 Collecting Information Qualitative Interviews to project actors (Donors, Policy Owner, Control body, Implementing Body) Workshop / Focus group with the stakeholders Interview with sector experts (Academics, researchers, etc.) Quantitative National / regional statistics Data from the project Data and Information from previous studies (literature review)

7 Context Indicator Simple Nature Economic Indicator Growth in Export (%) Comparable Sector - Area (eg. Regional/ National) Average / Median - Maps DYNAMIC Growth level of GDP over (%) STATIC Income level for GDP per capita ( STATIC)

8 Context information - Context Map 1: Life expectancy at birth, 2009

9 Thematic - Research and development The proposed regulations for the next funding period suggest strengthening research, technological development and innovation as one possible thematic objective. Research and development expenditures are key factors both for gaining competitiveness on a global scale and for overcoming the current economic recession. R&D expenditure of 3% of the GDP is one of the five headline targets in the Europe 2020 Strategy (Map 5). Total intramural R&D expenditures in Umbria are up to 1% of the GDP. Such value is far from the European target of 3%. Map 5: Total intramural R&D expenditure, 2009

10 Analytical tools: PEST PEST analysis is a tool from business science. It is a useful tool for understanding the general feature of the Context. PEST is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social and Technological factors which provide a framework for reviewing a situation, or a strategy. It is very simple, and is a good subject for work group session or brainstorming meeting. PEST factors are essentially external, completing a PEST analysis is helpful prior to completing a SWOT analysis

11 PEST MATRIX CRITERIA political ecological/environmental issues current legislation home market future legislation international legislation regulatory bodies and processes government policies government term and change trading policies funding, grants and initiatives home market lobbying/pressure groups international pressure groups wars and conflicts social lifestyle trends demographics consumer attitudes and opinions media views law changes affecting social factors brand, company, technology image consumer buying patterns fashion and role models major events and influences buying access and trends ethnic/religious factors advertising and publicity ethical issues economic home economy situation home economy trends overseas economies and trends general taxation issues taxation specific to product/services seasonality/weather issues market and trade cycles specific industry factors market routes and distribution trends customer/end-user drivers interest and exchange rates international trade/monetary issues technological competing technology development research funding associated/dependent technologies replacement technology/solutions maturity of technology manufacturing maturity and capacity information and communications consumer buying mechanisms/technology technology legislation innovation potential technology access, licencing, patents intellectual property issues global communications

12 Analytical tools: SWOT SWOT is an acronym for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats. A SWOT analysis is a subjective assessment of data which is organized by the SWOT format into a logical order that helps understanding, presentation, discussion and decision-making. The four dimensions are a useful extension of a basic two heading list of pro's and con Strengths and Weaknesses are internal factors, whereas Opportunities and Threats might be: Obstacles or Advantages for strengths and weaknesses coming from external factors The evolution in the near future

13 SWOT Analysis NOW Strengths Weaknesses IN THE FUTURE Opportunities (external driving forces empowering the strengths ) Threats (external obstacles)

14 PEST AND SWOT COMBINATION PEST helps the identification of SWOT factors. PEST assesses more generally the global situation. SWOT is an assessment of the more specific sector / territory or policy / project / programme.

15 Practical example (1) Assessment the relevance of the issues: PEST PEST Analysis factors Political Economical Social Technological Importance / Impact/ Time frame Relative Importance: - Critical - Important - Un-important - Unknown Impact Very positive Positive Medium Negative Very negative Time frame (short / long term)

16 P E S T SWOT Strengths Here you have to locate the items that in the PEST Are short term important / critical Positive/ very positive Weaknesses Here you have to locate the items that in the PEST Are short term important / critical Negative / Very negative Opportunities Here you have to locate the items that in the PEST Are long term important / critical Positive/ very positive Threats Here you have to locate the items that in the PEST Are Long term important / critical Negative / Very negative POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL

17 Population Demographic downward trend during the 1980s and 1990s with slight recent recovery Continuous increase in region s working age population Projections indicate that the North East total population will continue to increase over the next two decades due to internal migration Population profile is ageing. Working age population decline has implications for future labour supply in the North East, as well as for the size and segmentation of markets within the region.

18 Economy Although there has been some growth in the knowledge economy, many new service sector jobs are in low value-adding private sector activities The experience of the early 1990s suggests that the overall pattern of recent employment growth is unlikely to be resilient in the event of recession. The shrinkage of traditional manufacturing in the North East emphasises the need to develop higher value-added products and services using the region s science and technology strengths. Long-standing enterprise deficit. Qualifications profile has been improving in recent years, but skill levels remain low in qualifications.

19 Nature and environment Good quality of life and presence of natural amenities such as national parks to attract people to live, work and invest in the region. Challenge of future economic development is to create wealth while reducing environmental impacts. Substantial capacity to develop the renewable energy sector, which represents both an economic opportunity (business growth/start-up potential) and environmental opportunity (clean and lower carbon energy). National programmes have planned to invest additional resources to promote renewable energy production Private investors will invest in the field of coal and oil extraction and exploitation

20 FROM SWOT TO NEEDS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE S W STRUCTURAL GAPS T O Vantaggi comparati

21 Verify the consistency of the analysis of needs Obstacles (needs) S T Potential for solutions W Ostacoli colli di bottiglia O

22 See you