Module 2 Role of Network Planning in the current Telecom scenario

Transcription

1 ITU / BDT- COE workshop Bangkok, Thailand, October 2002 Lecture NP-2.2 Role of in the current Telecom scenario November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 1 BDT - COE workshop on Planning Module 1: Introduction and Experiences in the Region Module 2 Role of in the current Telecom scenario Module 3 Integrated Planning Process Module 4 Specific per Layer Module 5 Supporting Tools November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 2

2 Content Chapter 2.2 Requirements to the Planner Scope and activities within the network planning area Strategic Planning and new Technologies. Solution mapping per scenario November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 3 Key requirements in competition Business Oriented Needs What are the best customer segments to address? Which services have to be introduced through time? What is the best service bundling per customer type? How to maximize revenues? How to reduce capital expenditure? How to reduce operational expenditure? November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 4

3 Key requirements in competition Oriented Needs How to forecast services and traffic demands? How many nodes to install? What is best location for systems and related communication media? What is the best network architecture and routing? Best balance between built and lease? How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration? How to ensure SLA and protection level? November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 5 Key requirements in competition Operation Support Needs How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and outsourcing? How to organize the operation processes? Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to operation? How to train labor force on the operational activities? November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 6

4 Role within the network lifecycle Design Procurement & Delivery The Managed Planning DB Connectivity Services Inventory Topology Infrastructure Installation & Commissioning Services Management Operation Maintenance & Repair November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 7 Scope: Mission Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize Business based on quantitative evaluation Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand Overall vision on the network layers Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing Optimizing balance between performance/sla and cost (CAPEX + OPEX) Considering regulatory constraints Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 8

5 Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY Market and demand forecasting Teletraffic Methodology Economical Engineering Operational Research and optimization Architecture and Technology Know- How November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 9 Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY Market and demand forecasting Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc. Analogy with other demands Evolutionary (grow lifecycle) Causal on originating factors Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility) Visionary (imagination) November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 10

6 Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY Teletraffic Methodology Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and holding times Capacity models based on stochastic processes: Analytical and Simulation Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS Good founding on the multiple contributions from the International community (ITC) November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 11 Scope: Main supporting pillars NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY Operational Research and optimization Linear programming method of simplex Non linear modeling procedures based on gradients Flow Optimization critical path, maximum flow, etc. Combinatorial processess "branch and bound Iterative processess decisión by succesive comparisons Heuristic procedures hybrid with emphasis on constraints and equipment characteristics November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 12

7 Scope: Typical activities (1) 1) Problem and Partitioning to reduce complexity 2) Data Gathering to match real needs Geo- scenarios Existing & carried services Current Performance and waiting lists 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 13 Scope: Typical activities (2) 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in coverage and technologies 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning 7) Costing in CAPEX and OPEX 8) Optimization for routing and deployment 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc. 10) Documentation of Plan and deployment November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 14

8 Scope: Dimensions By Time Short, Medium,Long term By Level of Detail Strategic/Business//NE By Layer Service layer up to Infrastructure By Segment Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end By Technology PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc By Service POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc By Solution Combination of the previous for a Project November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 15 Scope: Related Processes Business Planning Planning Strategic /business Planning Long Term Structural Planning Short/Medium Term Planning Support Processes Customer Care & Billing... Traffic & QoS Measurement... Management The November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 16

9 Strategic view Key decisions to guide the overall network structure, services and technologies: Role and market segments within competition Main evolution for technologies and architectures. NGN Solution mapping per scenario November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 17 Strategic Planning: Role in competition Selection of market segments: economy of scale Make versus outsource decision Policy on revenues and financing Partnership selection Priorities definition November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 18

10 Strategic Planning: Evolution on Technology and architecture Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where Architecture at core and access segments Operation support applications Planned evolution steps November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 19 Solution Mapping Variety of geo-scenarios within the country Characterize parameters for scenario and solutions Techno-economical evaluation to select best COOP November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 20

11 Solution Mapping: Methodology Projects/ Geo-scenarios Compliance Services Capacities Availability Operational constraints Mapping Technical Solutions Selected Scenarios Mapping Economical Solutions Techno-economical Evaluation Architecture Density Capital expenditure NPV of full costs Entry costs Models Mapping Qualified Solutions Qualifiers Flexibility Speed to service Evolution Experience Selected Solutions Input criteria Results Actions Recommendations November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 21 Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling CAPITAL COSTS OPERATING COSTS FULL COSTS = Electronic equipment Cables Civil works Licenses, permits Installation Replacement Customer premises equipment + Rights of way Space rental Operations and maintenance Power Management and salaries Cost of inventory Marketing campaigns Overheads November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 22

12 Suburban L1 Solution Mapping: Example of Geo Scenarios L2 Metropolitan L4 L5 L3 Villages Rural clusters L1: Distance between suburban L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance L3: Suburban - village distance L4: Distance between villages L5: Distance between rural November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 23 Solution Mapping: Technological alternatives at access (Fixed) Wireline Direct: POTS /ISDN Narrowband (up to 144 Kbit/s) Wireless Point to Multipoint Satellite-Bidirectional RSU: POTS /ISDN Access Technologies Wireline Multiservice DLC (FTTC) xdsl PLC SDH/SONET Add DropMux FTTB/APON/EPON Broadband Wireless Ethernet CATV(HFC) MMDS/WIP WLAN LMDS Satellite-Bidirectional DBS/DBT November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 24

13 Solution Mapping: Technical Alternatives at access Multiple Business Services BWA xdsl (+ opt LLU) Fiber High Speed Internet Access CATV ADSL (+ opt LLU) TDM + ADSL (+ opt LLU) Telephony NWA Revenues < ~300E/year ~ 60 % Low End High End SOHO SME Residential Revenues > ~600E/year ~ 40 % Business Corporate November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 25 Solution Mapping: Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access Cost Composition for overlay PSTN and Data (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial) Infrastructure (OSP) Cost Composition (Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial) 5 % 4 % 5 % 12 % 4 % 7 % 25 % 74% 51 % 13 % OSP PSTN access PSTN core DATA Overlay Transport Primary Secondary Civil Works Engineering Management November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 26

14 Solution Mapping: Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access High density areas 300 Monetary units Metrop. total Metrop. infrastructure Sub. total Sub. infrastructure Density (subscribers per KM²) November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 27 Solution Mapping: Solution selection per customer density Monetary units Technology A Technology B Technology C HDSL with LLU access Density of lines (2Mbps per km^2) November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 28

15 Solution Mapping: Techno-economicaleconomical Recommendation High density 8000 Switching based access (RSU) Multiservice and DSLAM xdsl CATV/HFC APON/FTTH 1000 Medium density - High 200 clustering Low density - Low clustering 0.5 Cust./Km2 Wireless Access Narrowband Fixed GSM Satellite Overlap area Quantitative Dif. < 10% Qualitative assignment Wireless Access Wideband/BB Satellite Services &Traffic POTS/Fax POTS/ISDN/Data POTS/Data nx64 POTS/data/Video Multimedia BB November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 29 Reference benefits Adequate definition of customer segments, services and business to ensure efficient operation in competition Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR Saving factors of 20 to 200 % by adequate solution/technology mapping in the access segment Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing optimization November 11th ITU/BDT-COE / Role of - O.G.S. Lecture NP slide 30