Skills Planning in the Highlands

Transcription

1 Skills Planning in the Highlands Stephen Sheridan, Skills Planning Manager DYW Leads day 23 rd January 2018

2 Introduction Why we produce an evidence base and insight What are they telling us Where can you find out more? Questions - for discussion

3 The approach in Scotland

4 The Evidence base Jobs and Skills in Scotland Major review of Scotland s economic & labour market performance since recession Labour Market Forecasts for Scotland Scotland s geographies, industries and qualifications Regional Skills Assessments Clear, agreed statement on regional economic performance and skills needs of employers Used to inform Regional Outcome Agreements and SDS service offer Skills Investment Plans Regional & Industry specific investigations into the nature of current and future skills requirements Regional & Industry led strategy for supporting skills development for that sector Apprenticeship Family demand statements Industry demand by SCQF level Company uptake ; Capacity and delivery constraints Disaggregated data for regional DYW groups

5 National - Jobs and Skills report New National skills assessment ( Dec 17) recognising post recession: Employment in Scotland has recovered and is above pre-recession levels; Many key sectors have had good employment growth despite difficult trading conditions; The economy offered a range of opportunities for young people after school. However: growth rates for the Scottish economy remain behind that of the UK A rise in non standard jobs - part time, self employment and non-permanent employment have grown; Increases in jobs at the top, maintained jobs at the bottom and declining jobs in intermediate occupations akin to an hour glass shape. This presents challenges for progression in the workplace, underemployment and under utilisation of skills Low pay and in-work poverty as of continuing concern. shift in the sectoral composition of employment in Scotland. Rising employment in business services, wholesale & retail trade, construction and health & social work will be accompanied by a reduction in manufacturing and public administration

6 Regional Skills Assessment and Skills Investment Plans A ROBUST EVIDENCE BASE Regional Skills Assessments (RSA) SKILLS INVESTMENT PLANS Analysis and interpretation, Stakeholder engagement, Strategy and action plan Sectors Regions / Local

7 Regional Skills Assessments Provide a clear, agreed statement on regional economies and skills needs of employers and use them to Support the SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements; Align SDS investment in individuals and businesses; Assist partners in planning their investment in skills Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence.

8 RSAs what they tell us Demand Overview of regional economy Business base, Employment, Industrial structure, Occupational profile Employment and Skills Outlook Supply Population Labour Market Participation Qualifications and attainment Skills Mismatches Skills shortages and gaps Provision Modern Apprenticeship College provision University provision

9 SIP s What they tell us Articulating & prioritising skills development needs in sectors & regions Based on evidence and capture the skills needs of regions and Industries, Describing the challenges and opportunities Contain an agreed Action Plan with partners

10 Skills Investment Plans - Sectors Sector Energy Refreshed 2015 Food and Drink Refreshed 2017 Tourism Refreshed 2016 Finance Refreshed 2016 ICT March 2014 Life Sciences April 2014 Engineering August 2014 Chemical Sciences October 2014 Construction March 2015 Creative Industries August 2015 Early years learning and childcare January 2018 SIP Publication

11 Skills Investment Plans H & I Region / Local Area Highlands and Islands Arran Argyll and Bute Caithness and North Sutherland Moray Orkney Shetland Western Isles

12 Common SIP issues The increasing importance of STEM subjects to support the needs of the economy (at School, College and University) Low levels of work based learning v other advanced economies but strong demand from employers The underpinning importance of digital skills and capability in both skills and learning system and the workforce to meet Scotland s economic growth ambitions The importance of leadership and management skills in the workforce to support the deployment of skills in the workplace Gender imbalance and under-representation of other groups create skills and recruitment challenges in some sectors The role of international talent attraction in meeting the skills needs of some of Scotland s growth sectors

13 Common SIP action plan themes Inspiring and preparing the future workforce to engage with the career opportunities provided in the sector (i.e. sector attractiveness) Creating and investing in pathways to enable people to enter and build their skills in the workforce (i.e. entry routes, MAs, and transition training for existing workers) Providing support to address immediate workforce development needs (i.e. tactical projects to fill short term gaps) Stimulating change in the skills system to better align provision with the needs of employers and the economy (i.e. right content, right place, right time)

14 Uses of SIPs and RSAs SDS Careers advisers use evidence and Insight RSAs and SIPs to support clients Influence Graduate, Modern and Foundation Apprenticeship contracting strategies and demand statements Developing future service delivery expanding apprenticeship offer SFC and Regional Colleges - Regional Outcome Agreements Local authorities/education: Local authorities to use in skills planning Education/Schools can use to inform curriculum and, especially in senior phase, to link the curriculum much more closely to labour market need

15 Highland Regional Skills Assessment Dec 2017

16 Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016) Highland Scotland Agriculture, forestry & fishing 20% 10% Production 6% 6% Construction 14% 11% Motor trades 3% 3% Wholesale 2% 3% Retail 7% 8% Transport & storage 3% 3% Accommodation & food services 10% 8% Information & communication 2% 6% Financial & insurance 1% 2% Property 3% 3% Professional, scientific & technical 13% 19% Business admin & support 7% 7% Public admin. & defence <1% <1% Education 1% 1% Health 3% 4% Arts, entertainment,recreation, other 6% 7% Total 10, ,905 Key Message : Agriculture, forestry and fishing twice the national average Source: UK Business Counts

17 Proportions of businesses by size band 2016 Highland Scotland % 88% % 10% % 2% 250+ <1% <1% Source: UK Business Counts Key Message : Large proportion of very small businesses reflecting the importance of agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.

18 Distribution of Unemployment and Inactivity by Local Authority Low Unemployment High Inactivity High Unemployment High Inactivity Low Unemployment Low Inactivity High Unemployment Low Inactivity Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based) Key Message : Employment above national average with most working age people economically active.

19 Figure 2.7: Deprivation in Inverness and Highland City Region Deal by SIMD (2016) Deciles See SIMD interactive map here: Source: Scottish Government 2016 Key Message : Relatively low concentrations of high deprivation but not all deprived people live in deprived areas

20 Population projections change by age band, Total Highland -6% -11% -8% -16% 19% 105% 3% Scotland 1% -8% -2% -6% 27% 85% 7% Source: National Records of Scotland. Key Message : 2014 Total Population of 234,700 set to increase by 3% but the working age population set to decrease by 11% by 2039 over twice the national average.

21 Table 2.6: School Leavers Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16 Highland Scotland Higher education (%) 2009/10 32% 34% 2015/16 34% 37% Change 2% 3% Further education (%) 2009/10 21% 24% 2015/16 19% 22% Change -2% -2% Employment (%) 2009/10 31% 23% 2015/16 37% 29% Change 6% 6% Unemployment (%) * 2009/10 13% 14% 2015/16 5% 8% Change -8% -6% Key Message : Economic recovery largely accounts for employment increase. Annual participation measure now adopted by SG National Performance Framework

22 Demand for Skills in Highland Region

23 '000s Total Employment Projections (jobs, 000 s), Total employment (jobs) Key Message : Slowly increasing total employment Source: Oxford Economics

24 '000s Total Employment (jobs) projections , status & gender 60 Male full-time Male part-time Female full-time Female part-time Key Message : Steady growth forecast for female full time employment Source: Oxford Economics

25 Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation, 2017 and 2027 Managers, directors & senior officials 12.9 Professional occupations 19.3 Associate professional & technical 11.6 Administrative & secretarial occupations Skilled trades Caring, leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process, plant & machine operatives Elementary occupations 15.3 Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only Key Message : Largest growth areas are care & leisure and skilled trades

26 Total employment (jobs,000 s) by industrial sector, 2017 & 2027 Human health and social work Wholesale and retail trade Accommodation and food services Construction Professional, scientific and technical Education Admin. and support services Transport and storage Manufacturing Public admin. and defence Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities Agriculture, forestry and fishing Information and communication Water supply, sewerage, waste Real estate activities Financial and insurance activities Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning Mining and quarrying Key Message : Largest changes Construction & Professional increase, decrease in Public Sector and Manufacturing Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

27 Table 3.2: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (people, 000s), Highland, Occupation Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement Managers directors & senior officials Professional occupations ( ex. Teaching & Health ) Associate professional & technical occupations Administrative & secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process plant & machine operatives Elementary occupations ( ex. Sales and admin ) Total Key Message : Significant demand 43, new people required Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.

28 Table 3.4: Expansion demand, replacement demand and total requirement (jobs, 000s) Highland, Source: Oxford Economics Sector Expansion Replacement Total Requirement Demand Demand Agriculture,forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning Water supply sewerage waste management Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transport and storage Accommodation and food services Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical Admin. and support services Public admin. and defence Education Human health and social work Arts,entertainment and recreation Other service activities Total Key Message : 49,800 Job Openings in next 10 years

29 Total Requirement by qualification (people, 000s), Highland, Qualification Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Total Requirement SCQF SCQF SCQF SCQF SCQF No Qualifications Total Key Message : Demand highest for those with higher level qualifications. Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Figures for 2027 only

30 Final thoughts. In addition to the national themes of - Importance of STEM subjects, digital skills and capability to support the needs of the economy Addressing the gender balance and under-representation of other groups which create skills and recruitment challenges in some sectors In the Highlands we also need to consider : Increased demand for workers in the Construction sector, may provide employment opportunities for the low skills, unemployed or inactive A forecast decline in Public sector employment, an issue especially given the projected population and increase and the importance of the Public sector currently; A focus on raising skills in the Tourism and Food and drink sectors, so those employed in those sectors do not remain low skilled and have progression opportunities available The need to replace workers in the Wholesale and retail trade, taking into account the often low skilled nature of the sector.

31 Resources Jobs and Skills in Scotland The Evidence ( November 2017) Regional Skills Assessments ( December 2017) Skills Investment Plans Annual Participation measure for Highland (August 2017) Making Skills Work Highland ( December 2017) Modern Apprenticeship statistics

32 Questions? Contact Details Stephen Sheridan Regional Skills Planning Manager & National Construction Lead Skills Development Scotland