CITY OF PALO ALTO. Citywide Travel Demand Model Project Scope of Services

Transcription

1 Memorandum CITY OF PALO ALTO October 16, 2001 TO: ATTN: SUBJECT: CITY COUNCIL MEMBERS Policy and Services Committee Citywide Travel Demand Model Project Scope of Services Attached is CMR:353:01, Approval of Scope of Service for Consultant Contract with TJKM in the Amount of $74,809 for Provision of a Citywide Travel Demand Model (RFP# ). The CMR was inadvertently left out of the Council packet last Thursday, September 27 and is on the October 2 agenda of the Policy and Services Committee. LISA GROTE Chief Planning Official EMILY HARRISON Assistant City Manager CMR:353:01 Page 1 of 12

2 TO: HONORABLE CITY COUNCIL FROM: CITY MANAGER DEPARTMENT: PLANNING DATE: SEPTEMBER 19, 2001 CMR:353:01 SUBJECT: APPROVAL OF CONSULTANT CONTRACT WITH TJKM IN THE AMOUNT OF $74,809 FOR PROVISION OF A CITYWIDE TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL (RFP#136950) RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that Council: 1) Waive Council committee review of project scope that is normally required for consultant contracts over $65,000. 2) Approve and authorize the Mayor to execute the attached contract with TJKM in the amount of $74,809 for provision of a City of Palo Alto citywide travel demand model. The traffic model update is a highly technical project on a tight nine-month timeframe. Sufficient work must be completed by spring to provide traffic network projects as part of a Council-directed first Annual Report on Transportation Conditions and Trends in Palo Alto. The additional time required for Council committee review of the Scope of Work and return back to full Council would effectively remove this forecasting tool from staff s toolkit in preparing the annual transportation report. BACKGROUND The City of Palo Alto s existing computer traffic demand simulation/projection model was created in In the past six years there have been a number of changes that require major improvements in the Palo Alto travel model database and capabilities. Development and redevelopment within the City and surrounding communities has had a significant impact on Palo Alto travel patterns. The Comprehensive Plan placed great emphasis on reducing solo occupant motor vehicle use through development of alternative transport modes. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) are in the process of substantially upgrading their regional travel models to provide the capability of forecasting transit and bicycle travel, as well as personal motor vehicle demand. The Transportation Division was directed to prepare an annual report on conditions and trends CMR:353:01 Page 2 of 12

3 in Palo Alto s transportation system (CMR:241:99), a task that requires an updated and sophisticated travel demand model. This contract was not included in the list of those reviewed by the Policy and Services and Finance Committees in July and August 2001 because the Transportation Division hopes to bring the new Palo Alto travel demand model on line in time to provide travel demand projections for presentation to the Planning and Transportation Division and Council as part of the first annual report on transportation conditions and trends. Staff therefore requests that Council authorize an expedited approval for the travel demand model scope of work bypassing the normal Council committee review process. DISCUSSION The work to be performed under the contract is for substantial update and upgrade of Palo Alto s computer traffic demand model. Work tasks are: updating land use and socioeconomic information as well as any relevant changes in the street network; adjusting model parameters to adequately simulate year 2001 and project future (to the year 2025) trip generation and distribution; and developing a modal choice (solo occupant, auto, rideshare, transit or cycling) forecasting capability for Palo Alto s travel demand model. All of these elements are to be congruent with parameters, assumptions, and capabilities of MTC and VTA regional travel demand models. Staff sent a request for proposals to 49 engineering consulting firms in June Firms were given 28 days to respond to the request. A total of three firms submitted proposals. Proposals ranged from $74,809 to $85,000. [It should be noted that one responding firm estimated the project in two phases: basic ($75,000) and enhanced ($225,000). Only the basic phase is included in the above cost range.] Those firms not responding indicated that they did not submit a proposal because of limited availability of key staff. A selection advisory committee consisting of staff from the Transportation Division and Public Works Department reviewed the proposals. All three firms were invited to participate in oral interviews on August 28. The committee carefully reviewed each firm's qualifications and submittal in response to the RFP relative to the following criteria: 1) experience in computer demand model update and upgrade; 2) familiarity with MTC and VTA regional travel demand models; 3) experience in modeling transit and bicycle travel demand; and 4) familiarity with Palo Alto transportation facilities and services. TJKM was selected because they demonstrated greater technical sophistication and were the most responsive of the three firms in addressing project requirements. RESOURCE IMPACT Council has approved a budget allocation of $75,000 for this project. POLICY IMPLICATIONS Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 3

4 The travel demand model update and upgrade project will contribute to Council s directive to Transportation staff to prepare an annual report on existing conditions and trends in Palo Alto s transportation system. The model will also support accurate evaluation of the traffic impacts of proposals for significant land development and redevelopment; identify opportunities for new or improved transit routes and cycling facilities serving Palo Alto; and inform transportation and land use decision-making in Palo Alto though provision of answers to questions pertaining to the impact of changes in with land use of transportation facilities. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW This is not a project under the California Environmental Quality Act and is exempt from CEQA review. ATTACHMENTS Attachment A: Scope of Services Attachment B: Contract PREPARED BY: Joseph Kott Chief Transportation Official CITY MANAGER APPROVAL: EMILY HARRISON Assistant City Manager Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 4

5 ATTACHMENT A III. SCOPE OF SERVICES TJKM will provide an updated, and carefully calibrated travel forecasting model for the City of Palo Alto along with easy to use menus and routines for continued use of the mode/over time. Additional/y, we believe our work can lead to a cost-effective, annual update of the model in conjunction with certain modeling and other activities of the VTA. The Congestion Management Agency land use monitoring coupled with the Congestion Management System monitoring should be useful tools in updating land use and network data beyond city boundaries. Within the city, of course, land use can be more precisely updated, and the city's new centralized signal system (e.g., Naztec, icons, or Eagle) can (and should) be designed to update traffic volume data on the network. The land use and volume data are needed for checking the calibration of the model. TJKM will perform the following tasks within a budget of $75,000 within nine months, depending on the availability of data to be specified in the following tasks. Task 1: System Analysis TJKM will perform an in-depth system analysis of all issues regarding the model development, determine the model specification and the data requirement and provide a feasible implementation design. TJKM staff has performed similar analyses for various organizations and has developed a unique method for the analysis. Subtask 1.1. Modeling region. With a basic investigation of current data and surveys, TJKM will determine the modeling region, the entire extent of the land use and network files used in the modeling process. This region could encompass the MTC nine-county area (at a simplified scale) or could use the same modeling region as the VTA model. Subtask 1.2. Data availability. TJKM will determine specific data to be used in computations, which may include the local model data (network and land use data), volumes (including turn counts), travel time and distance distribution, GIS data, reports and local road and transit maps. Subtask 1.3. Model structure and specification. Based on the discussion with the City and other information, TJKM will determine the zonal structure, model structure and specification with a computational flow chart. The zonal structure will be consistent with the latest TAZ structure recently submitted to the Census Bureau under the CTPP 2000/TAZ Verify Program. As discussed in the last section, the final modeling network includes all the zones as detailed as the local models with a set of ensembles of the City zones. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 15

6 Subtask 1.4 Development of naming convention of the files and variables. TJKM will use the naming convention in the implementation of the model. This will ensure accurate coordination of the various independent work products and the continuation of the process. Subtask 1.5. Future year selection and criteria. TJKM will analyze the future year selection based on the future year selection by VTA and MTC (and the City s requirement). Generally, TJKM recommends using the same future year as VTA, which is consistent with MTC and ABAG. Subtask 1.6. Develop work plan and schedule. After consultation with the City, refine proposed work plan and project schedule. Data Requirement 1. Model data of the City and the VTA. Deliverables 1. Technical memo 2. One meeting with the City for the model specification Task 2: Develop Model Networks This task is to develop the city model network based on the VTA regional model network including the road network and transit lines. Subtask 2.1. Network conflation. TJKM will combine the VTA network and the city model network based on the most recent TIGER files, or city GIS files as a base map. Subtask 2.2. Network refinement. TJKM will refine the modeling network with network moving, snapping, link and line editing, and especially, densification of traffic analysis zones for city applications of the model. In this case, TJKM will use Viper to perform this task. All major existing intersections should be correctly represented. Subtask 2.3. Transit network development. TJKM will use the TIGER file as a background to develop the transit lines with Viper, which is a translation of the VTA, Caltrain and ACE transit lines. Subtask 2.4. Data verification. TJKM will verify both auto and transit network attribute development and verification for speed, distance, lanes, capacity, area type, volumes, volume delay function, class, transit line frequency, line speed, boarding and alighting permitted at the bus stop, etc. Subtask 2.5. GIS map preparation. TJKM will create the modeling network and transit line maps in Viper. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 16

7 Deliverables 1. TP+/Viper files with the auto network and transit lines 2. Auto network and transit lines in ArcView shape file format 3. An integrated transportation information system in GIS Task 3: Model Development TJKM will develop an integrated transportation model in TP+/Viper with an optional ArcView user interface based on the model specification. Subtask 3.1. Traffic analysis zone (TAZ) data update. The VTA TAZ data are presumed to be current and up to date. However, TJKM shall also allocate the VTA TAZ data to the smaller TAZ in the City model using City-provided land use data. Subtask 3.2. Trip generation. TJKM will determine the trip rates based on the ITE rate for the city area together with the VTA model trip rates. Subtask 3.3. Utility components such as travel time, travel distance and transit time, etc. TJKM will determine the utility functions with parameters. Subtask 3.4. Trip distribution models by region (special generators), purpose, period and class, Subtask 3.5. Nested logit mode choice models by region, purpose, period and class. TJKM will determine the parameters for the nested logit models based on demand modeling experience, VTA parameters and Quick Response Transferable Parameters. Subtask 3.6. Traffic assignments and transit assignments. TJKM will also determine the parameters for the assignments based on the current VTA model Subtask 3.7. Model implementation. TJKM will develop the TP+ scripts to form a complete model. Subtask 3.8. Model integration with ArcView. TJKM will work to develop a customized GIS interface. Subtask 3.9. Test runs and procedure verifications. Data Requirement None Deliverables 1. Technical memo on the model integration with GIS Task 4: Model Calibration and Validation TJKM will use the standard model calibration and validation procedures such as the Caltrans Forecast Guidelines, NCHRP Reports # 255, #365 and NARC Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 17

8 Regional Modeling Guideline, which describes the use of the RSME measure. The baseline year can be either 2000 or 2001 depending on the traffic count availability. However the parameters and calibration matrices of year 2000 will be used to the future demand forecasting. Subtask 4.1. Traffic count database development in the modeling network that includes both the link and turning movement volumes of the base year by AM and PM. Subtask 4.2. Model validation individually for trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice and assignments, and then with all together. The travel length and time distributions from the model will be reviewed as compared with that from the survey, which should be close enough in terms of the matrix histograms by purposes and classes and modes. Subtask 4.3. OD estimations in auto and transit. The obtained OD demand matrices by mode such as the auto and transit will be revised to reflect local road and line counts with the OD estimation technique. This method has been widely used with a great success. Subtask 4.4. Result comparisons in matrix histogram and link scattergram with the RMSE approach. The calibration results will be presented and reviewed with the City in several iterations. Examples are provided in the last section. The required results specified in RFP will be provided. Data Requirement 1. Traffic counts in 2000 Deliverables 1. Technical memo for the calibration results Task 5: Future Demand Forecasting TJKM will use the parameters and 2000 calibration matrices (both auto and transit) to the future demand forecasting for future years. Subtask 5.1. Development of future year socioeconomic and land use data. These data mainly come from the City, VTA, MTC and ABAG. Subtask 5.2. Future year capital improvements and assumptions, which will be reflected in the modeling network. Subtask 5.3. Future year travel forecasts. The results will be reported by year, mode and purpose. Subtask 5.4. Future accepted forecasted information plots by link volumes, turning movement volumes and demands by AM and PM. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 18

9 Subtask 5.5. Conduct LOS analysis and computation for freeway and arterial links and signalized intersections with the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual. The soft-ware can be Traffix, HiCAP 2000 or others. Data Requirement 1. Future land use and network data Deliverables 1. Technical memorandum. Task 6: Model and GIS Integration TJKM will prepare a prototype GIS integration for the City model in a GIS environment as discussed in the last section, which will serve as a base for any further development. Subtask 6.1. TJKM will organize all the data and model results in an ArcView project. Subtask 6.2. TJKM will develop a customized user interface in ArcView that can start the execution of TP+Viper macros and query and produce certain standard reports including tables and traffic flows. Subtask 6.2. TJKM will discuss possible improvements in the GIS interface with the City, and will modify the interface as necessary. Data Requirement None. Deliverables 1. An ArcView Project file with menus Task 7: Documentation TJKM will prepare a full documentation for the model specification and final results of the model calibration including the user manual. Also included will be annual model update and validation procedures that draw upon readily available data and macros within the model implementation. Subtask 7.1. TJKM will prepare a preliminary outline of the report for review by the City. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 19

10 Subtask 7.2. TJKM will write the report including the model specification, data input (link attributes, node attributes, OD matrices), GIS maps, model calibration and validation results in a standard format. A user manual is provided to illustrate how the model can be used, updated and re-validated. Data Requirement None Deliverables 2. Full report and a user manual 3. TP+/Viper model in the terms of scripts and the ArcView project file. Task 8:. Technical Meetings and Training TJKM will meet with the City up to seven times and provide four hours training on the use of the model and presentation of the final results. TJK.M strongly recommends that City staff take a training course from UAG in the use of TP+/Viper. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 20

11 IV. PROJECT MANAGEMENT TJKM will apply fried-and-true, innovative project management techniques to assure that this project remains on schedule and within budget. To effectively manage this project, we propose to use the following tools being used in TJ'KM: Bi-weekly assignment checklists throughout the life of the project to ensure the project remains on schedule by proper staffing assignments for all TJKM staff. MS Project will be used for this purpose. Monthly budget review to ensure no budget overruns occur. TJKM's customized accounting system will enable the project manager to track the expenditures to date each Monday morning, and ensure budget compliance of TJKM. ~' Monthly progress reports to accompany each invoice, for review with the client project manager. TJKM will document work performed to date in these status reports. Regular meetings with the City, to discuss progress, issues, and to receive guidance. Dr. Jia Hao Wu, Senior Associate and TJKM's Director of ITS, will lead the project and perform much of the work. He successfully managed the implementation for the SCAG regional model, and also GlS, and TP+ model update for SJCOG. These efforts are recent, occurring in 1999 and He also is responsible for all the modeling tasks for the majority of TJKM's current traffic studies. Mr. Gary Kruger, Principal Associate, will be serve as principle-in-charge of this project. He will be responsible for the quality control and the documentation review in addition to his contribution to the model development of the project. TJKM team participants are presented in the section THE TJKM TEAM. The responsibilities of each participant of TJKM are given in Figure 12. Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 21

12 V. SCHEDULE AND BUDGET TJKM Team will finish this project within one year for Phase One for a total of $75,000. All the work will be performed within the not-to-exceed total. Our schedule is shown in Figure 10. We feel the schedule is very reasonable, and we are comfortable with it. The milestones of the project are listed here: Milestone one: end of Task 1 Milestone two: mid of Task 3 Milestone three: end of Task 4 Milestone four: end of Task 8 The distribution of budget, person hours and task hours of TJKM Team by person and by company is listed in Figure 11. Memorandum M = Milestone R = Report/ FIGURE 10 SCHEDULE FOR THE PROJECT Proposal to Palo Alto Citywide Travel Demand Model Page 22