Transversal Analysis on the Evolution of Skills Needs in 19 Economic Sectors

Transcription

1 Transversal Analysis on the Evolution of Skills Needs 19 Economic Sectors Committee on Employment and Social Affairs, European Parliament 2nd December 2009 Prepared by Oxford Research for DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities Oxford Research A/S Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal 2000 Frederiksberg C Danmark Oxford Research AB Box Malmö Sverige Oxford Research AS Kjøita Kristiansand Norge

2 Background of the study A transversal analysis of 19 comprehensive sector studies The (18) sector studies where carried out all followg the European Foresight Methodology The amount of comparable sectoral data provides a unique possibility for developg a coherent view on the emergg skills needs process Europe

3 Sectors cluded the study Sectors cluded the transversal study Automotive Buildg of ships and boats Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastics Computer, electronic and optical devices Construction Defence dustry Distribution and trade Furniture Health and social work Hotels, restaurants and caterg Non-metallic materials Other services, matenance and cleang Post and telecommunications Prtg and publishg The 19 together covers around 60 % of total EU employment Electricity, gas, water and waste Electromechanical engeerg Fancial services Textiles, apparel and leather products Transport and logistics

4 Focus of the study Example: Construction Architects, engeers, suppliers of materials and machery, etc. Actual construction of buildgs, roads, etc. Focus Focus of of the the study: study: Direct Direct sectoral employment Real estate, rental agencies. etc Example: Production of automobiles Suppliers of materials, subparts, machery, etc. Actual production and assemblg of automobiles Marketg, distribution and retail sales, etc. Example: Other services - cleang Cleang agents, tools and machery, marketg, etc. Actual cleang service

5 Methodology Compilation of sectoral key data from the 19 sector studies NB! Work progress Validatg review of available sectoral data (impact of the fancial crisis) Multicorrelation of data Sectoral path fdg and evolutionary paradigms

6 Ma economic and employment trends Upskillg vs deskillg Level of upskillg Medium Low Sectors Upskillg / Deskillg Chemical, Computer, Fance, Prtg Automotive, Defence, Energy, Electromechanical, Furniture, Health & social work, Post & tele, Transport Defition Upskillg defed defed as as proment either either managerial and/or and/or er er technical positions Sectors (professionals) Deskillg defed defed as as proment trends trends among among low low skilled/manual workers Shipbuildg, Construction, Distribution & trade, HoReCa, Non-metallic, Other services, Textiles Upskillg Upskillg is is prevalent prevalent all all Sectors Sectors development development and and competitiveness competitiveness not not related related to to upskillg upskillg vs. vs. deskillg deskillg but but rather rather to to upskillg upskillg vs. vs. low low upskillg upskillg Static Deskillg None None

7 Ma economic and employment trends Index of changes employment the EU by occupation 120,0 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 skilled Low skilled Skilled Polarisation Polarisation Dramatic Dramatic decle decle the the need need for for skilled skilled Steady Steady demand demand for for low low skilled skilled Significant Significant crease crease the the need need for for skilled skilled 60, Source: : Eurostat

8 Ma economic and employment trends Demographic changes the ma age groups Clear Clear need need for for replacement! Source: : Eurostat

9 Common paths of sectoral evolution Current number of offshored functions Post & tele HoReCa Energy Few Other services Health & social work Construction Transportation Prtg Employment & off shorg trend Yearly employment (%) Distribution & trade Fance Non-metallic Chemical Furniture Electromechanical Computer Automotive Shipbuildg Many Textile Defence Stayg Stayg (services) (services) employment employment Low level of off shorg Low level of off shorg Increase skilled jobs Increase skilled jobs Still Still need need for for low low skilled/ skilled/ manual manual Changg Changg (production) (production) Low/no Low/no employment employment level level of of off off shorg shorg Increase Increase skilled skilled jobs jobs (focus on end value activities) (focus on end value activities) Significant decrease low Significant decrease low skilled/manual skilled/manual Movg Movg (production) (production) employment employment decle decle level level of of off off shorg shorg Decrease Decrease skilled skilled jobs jobs Dramatic Dramatic decrease decrease low low skilled/ skilled/ manual manual

10 Common paths of sectoral evolution Current level of up-skillg Other services Low Distribution & trade Non-metallic Textile 1 HoReCa Construction Shipbuildg Yearly employment (%) Furniture 2 Transportation Automotive Health & social work Energy Post & tele Electromechanical Defence Up-skillg & employment Chemical Prtg 3 Fance Computer Low Low up-skillg up-skillg + + job job = = primarily primarily low low knowledge knowledge tensive tensive service service Medium Medium up-skillg up-skillg + + job job = = primarily primarily medium medium knowledge knowledge tensive tensive service service up-skillg up-skillg + + low/no low/no job job quo quo = = knowledge knowledge tensive tensive service service or or production production (also (also or or medium medium off-shorg off-shorg susceptibility) susceptibility)

11 Common paths of sectoral evolution Yearly employment (%) Textile HoReCa Shipbuildg Construction Furniture Other services Defence Transportation Distribution & trade 70 Prtg Health & social work Chemical Post & tele Computer Employment & educational level Employees tertiary or secondary education (%) 2007 Sectors Sectors need need of of educated educated share share of of employees employees medium/ medium/ level level of of educational educational background background + + Relatively Relatively job job NB! Data comg up/ not available for: Energy Fance Transport Non-metallic Prtg

12 Drivers of change Impact of the fancial crisis Impact of the fancial crisis Sector/Driver Job loss Automotive Shipbuildg n/a Chemical Computer Construction Defence Less impacted : Distribution & trade Less impacted : Energy Defence Defence (may Electromechanical (may be be impacted impacted the the long long run) run) Energy Energy Fance Health Health and and social social work work Post and telecom Furniture Post Health & and social telecom work Most Most severe severe hit hit : Company restructurgs (bankruptcies of domant players, change of ownership, etc.) Automotive Automotive Construction Fance Fance HoReCa HoReCa Textile Textile Transport Transport Construction n/a HoReCa Non-metallic Other services Post & tele Prtg Textile Transport n/a n/a impact Medium impact Low impact

13 Ma economic and employment trends Employment dex Employment Index Other services, matenance and cleang : EU : EU Transport Hotels, restaurants and caterg Health and social w ork Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products Distribution, trade Construction Computer, electronic and optical products Buildg of ships and boats Electromechanical engeerg Electricity, gas, water and waste Non-metallic materials Post and telecommunications Furniture Automotive sector Fancial services Prtg and publishg 80 Defence dustry Textiles, apparel and leather products The economic crisis Source: Validatg reviews Post economic crisis Source: Sum of scenarios

14 Ma economic and Categorized employment trends dex Categorized employment dex Services Distributio n and trade Fancial services Health and social work Hotels, restaurants and caterg Other services, mataance and cleang Post and telecommunications Transport Combed services and production Computer, electronic and optical products Construction Electricity, gas, water and waste Prtg and publishg Production Automotive sector Buildg of ships and boats Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products Defence dustry Electromechanical engeerg Furniture Non-metallic materials Textiles, apparel and leather products The economic crisis Post economic crisis

15 Emergg skills and competencies Most required emergg competencies Social/cultural Intercultural skills Team work Self management Entrepreneurship and novativeness Technical ICT and E-skills (both at user and expert level) Skills/knowledge related to new materials Skills/knowledge related to new processes Health and green skills (related to health and climate and environmental solutions) Managerial Intercultural management International value cha management International fancial management Green management (managg climate and environmental solutions) + Multiskillg and new combations of skills

16 Emergg skills and competencies Most required emergg competencies In service Intercultural skills Conflict solution Multiskillg All ICT and E-skills (both at user and expert level) Health and green skills (related to health and climate and environmental solutions) Entrepreneurship and novativeness Team work Self management New combations of skills and competencies Production Skills/knowledge related to new materials Skills/knowledge related to new processes International value cha management

17 Common paths of sectoral evolution Yearly employment (%) Yearly value added (%) Employment & value added Textile Electromechanical Other services Health & social work Furniture Energy Non-metallic Distribution & trade Automotive Prtg HoReCa Transportation Construction Chemical Post & tele Computer Shipbuildg Service: Service: Significant Significant employment employment combed combed added added value value Production Production : : European European excellence excellence Employment Employment decle. decle. Still Still to to medium medium value value added added

18 Common paths of sectoral evolution Yearly employment (%) Current significance of ageg work force Other services Furniture Energy Low Post & tele Non-metallic HoReCa Electromechanical Employment & ageg workforce Chemical Textile Fance Computer Defence Distribution & trade Transportation Construction Prtg Automotive Health & social work Shipbuildg Ageg Ageg Sectors Sectors typically typically urgent urgent or or comg comg recruitment recruitment challenges challenges directly directly connected connected to to an an ageg ageg workforce workforce combed combed employment employment young young Sectors Sectors urgent urgent or or comg comg recruitment recruitment challenges challenges related related to to job job but but only only weakly weakly related related to to an an ageg ageg workforce workforce

19 Ma fdgs 1 Polarisation of market/skills need: ØSignificant decle medium skilled jobs (E.g. craftsmen, mache operators, etc.) ØModerate crease low/un-skilled jobs (E.g.. elementary service occupations Ø crease skilled jobs (E.g. Professionals, managers, etc.) Significant job (only) service : Ø Increase both and low/un-skilled jobs European excellence production: ternationalisation, off shorg and specialisation leads to job decle production but value added Ø Decrease mostly skilled and low skilled jobs Ø Status quo or crease skilled ( end value) jobs However Upskillg all both historically and the future Increasg educational levels all

20 Ma fdgs 2 Traditional sector divisions are dissolvg: need for new types and mixes off employees and educational backgrounds most Traditional job profiles and work tasks are creasgly combed demandg new combations of skills and competencies New skills and competences are especially related to sustaability (environment, climate, health, etc.) concerns (and regulation), ICT, and to the ternationalisation of both workforce, markets and supply chas risk of skills (and ) shortages many due to an ageg workforce, poor image among young candidates and/or problems to attract women Ø Production : Faded and a heavy technical image (Ex. ship buildg, energy(-production)) Ø Service : Poor workg conditions and career opportunities (Ex.: Horeca, Other Services (cleang, etc.))

21 Evolutionary Ma recommendations paradigms from the sector studies Recommendations on education and trag Adapt and modernise vocational education and trag (VET) and general education systems Increase the flexibility of the educational system. New busess models demands new skills Include ter- and multidisciplary approaches education Closer cooperation between stakeholders is important In order to adapt the education system to new skill needs Promote sector specific skills at an early stage - by renewg forms of education Increase use of apprenticeship/mentorg programmes Greater emphasis should be put on teachg cultural and social skills the educational system EU standardization and certification of educations and skills to ensure free movement of the force Develop special/jot education and trag programmes for SMEs Develop qaulity onle and digitalised learng tools Create a culture of life long learng Support -house up-skillg and (re)trag( of workers

22 Evolutionary Ma recommendations paradigms from the sector studies General recommendations Enhance novation and R&D Invest strongly human capital Improve sector image especially for young candidates Improve workg conditions Improve career and personal development possibilities especially for low skilled workers Improve collaboration among all stakeholders Support and enforce social dialogue Support diversity policies and programmes aimed at: Keepg elderly employees (Active ageg) Attract female workers/managers Integrate and attract immigrant workers and expats Develop sector monitorg systems on employment, skills and competences Support clusterg and cross border networkg (for jot trag and R&D projects)

23 Thanks! Presentation by Kim Møller M President of the board Oxford Research kim@oxfordresearch.dk Oxford Research A/S Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal 2000 Frederiksberg C Denmark Oxford Research AB Box Malmö Sweden Oxford Research AS Kjøita Kristiansand Noway