State of the Art of Project Management: 2004

Transcription

1 State of the Art of Project Management: 2004 Russell D. Archibald Fellow PMI and APM/IPMA, PMP, MSc PMI-Sáo Paulo 4 th International Seminar Sáo Paulo, Brazil,

2 Purpose of My Presentation 1. To convey a comprehensive picture of the worldwide state of the art in this management discipline in 2004, and 2. To provide some predictions of future developments over the next 5 years 4th International Seminar 2

3 Presentation Outline 1. PM within Organizations 2. PM Applications and Practices 3. PM and People 4. PM in the Next Five Years 4th International Seminar 3

4 1. PM Within Organizations Characteristics of PM Projects, Programs, and Project Portfolios Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM 4th International Seminar 4

5 Characteristics of PM Projects obviously drive PM Start End, have life cycle phases Functional organizational methods don t work on projects PM practices have evolved over past 50 years 4th International Seminar 5

6 Three Key PM Differences Versus Functional Management 1. Integrative project responsibilities 1. General manager 2. Portfolio steering groups 3. Project & program sponsors 4. Manager of PM/PMO (Chief Projects Officer/CPO) 5. Project and programs managers 6. Functional (specialist) managers & project leaders 4th International Seminar 6

7 PM Versus Functional Mgt (Cont d) 2. Integrative & predictive practices, methods, systems, and tools for planning, scheduling, monitoring & controlling projects, programs & portfolios 3. Building and directing project teams of multi-functional specialists. 4th International Seminar 7

8 Project/Functional Matrix Always have to operate within some form of a project/functional matrix Weak or Strong matrix: Refers to authority of the Project Manager to give project direction to the functional team members 4th International Seminar 8

9 Total Life Cycle PM Early years: Focus on planning & executing phases Today: Total life cycle management: Including early conceptual & after phases Portfolio PM links corporate strategy with project management Now include realization of project benefits as part of PM discipline 4th International Seminar 9

10 Realizing Project Benefits Organizational change often required to achieve full benefits from completing a specific project Business Change Manager is sometimes appointed 4th International Seminar 10

11 1. PM Within Organizations Characteristics of PM Projects, Programs, and Project Portfolios Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM 4th International Seminar 11

12 Projects, Programs, & Project Portfolios Importance of categorizing projects Possible project categories Programs Project Portfolios 4th International Seminar 12

13 Categorizing Projects Projects: Are the common denominator for all aspects of project management Exist in many sizes & types Produce many different products & results Can be classified in many different ways 4th International Seminar 13

14 Project Categories Why bother? Because: One size does not fit all Life cycle models and processes good for one category are not good for others Recommended categories are based on project end results 4th International Seminar 14

15 Need for an Agreed Project Classification System The many uses of such a system include: Select/develop best life cycle models for a class Identify and apply best practices by class for project: Selection and prioritization Planning, execution and control methods, templates Risk management methods Governance policies and procedures Developing specialized software applications Build specialized libraries of knowledge Focus and improve education, certification, career planning Provide research direction Other: 4th International Seminar 15

16 Recommended Major Categories 1. Aerospace/Defense 2. Business & Organizational Change Projects 3. Communication Systems Projects 4. Event Projects 5. Facilities Projects 6. Information Systems 7. International Development 8. Media & Entertainment 9. Product/Service Development 10. Research & Dev. 4th International Seminar 16

17 Other Major Categories May Be Required See Table 1 in the paper for detail Further breakdown is obviously required A few examples follow 4th International Seminar 17

18 Sub-Categories Are Required One example: 2. Business & Organization Change Projects: 1. Acquisition/merger 2. Management process improvement 3. New business venture 4. Organization re-structuring 5. Legal proceeding 6. Other:? 4th International Seminar 18

19 Example: Category 5. Facilities Projects Subcategories: 1. Facility decommissioning 2. Facility demolition 3. Facility maintenance & modification 4. Facility design/procure/construct 1.Civil 2.Energy 3.Environmental 4.Industrial 5.Commercial 6.Residential 7.Ships 8.Other: 5. Other:? 4th International Seminar 19

20 Categories Are Not Mutually Exclusive Programs and large projects usually involve more than one category or subcategory These projects are placed in their predominate category Must Mega projects be treated separately? Probably: yes 4th International Seminar 20

21 PM Maturity by Project Category Project Category Very Mature Fairly Mature Still Maturing 1. Aerospace/Defense X 2. Business & Organizational Change X 3. Communication Systems X 4. Events X 5. Facilities X 6. Information Systems X 7. International Development X? X? 8. Media & Entertainment X 9. Product/Service Development X 10. Research & Development X

22 General Uncertainty by Project Category Project Category Low Medium High 1. Aerospace/Defense X 2. Business & Organizational Change X 3. Communication Systems X 4. Events X 5. Facilities X 6. Information Systems X 7. International Development X 8. Media & Entertainment X 9. Product/Service Development X 10. Research & Development X

23 Classifying Within Categories & Sub-Categories Project size Major & minor projects Project complexity External or internal customer Degree of customer involvement Levels of risk, who takes responsibility Stand-alone versus create supporting infrastructure Standard versus transitional Mega projects: not categorizable Other:? (See Crawford, Hobbs and Turner, 2002) 4th International Seminar 23

24 Multi-Project Programs Program: Long term effort comprising two or more closely linked projects Common resources Common higher level objectives PMI PMBOK: single project management PMI working on new standards for program and portfolio management 4th International Seminar 24

25 Programme Management: UK Office of Government Commerce/OGC PRINCE2 Management of Risk/M_o_R Managing Successful Programmes/MSP Programme management in UK is essentially the same as project portfolio management in North America 4th International Seminar 25

26 Project Portfolio Management Portfolios link corporate strategy with project management Portfolio steering group holds responsibility Must implement a project portfolio management process Various types of project portfolios 4th International Seminar 26

27 Strategic Objective 1 Operational Strategy 1.1 Operational Strategy 1.2 Operational Strategy 1.3 Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Program 1.1 Project Portfolio for Strategic Objective 1

28 Example: Hewlett-Packard/Compaq Merger Established Global Project Management Office/PMO (IT aspects only) CIO was actually the Program Manager Had PMOs at lower levels Global virtual teams Killing projects was equally important to completing remaining projects 4th International Seminar 28

29 How HP Manages Its Programs & Projects HP uses Portfolio Management to optimize investment mix for its IT projects: Maintenance and support projects Infrastructure projects Innovation projects We now have all our IT projects in one common central database, a true enterprisescale project management system. 4th International Seminar 29

30 Source: Implementing a Global Program Management Office By Don Kingsberry, Director Global PMO, and Jake Stewart, Manager Global PMO, both with Hewlett-Packard, presented at the 2003 PMI Global Congress in Baltimore, MD, USA 4th International Seminar 30

31 1. PM Within Organizations Characteristics of PM Projects, Programs, and Project Portfolios Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM 4th International Seminar 31

32 Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM Many PM Maturity Models PMI s OPM3 (For a critical review see ) PRINCE2 in UK Japan s P2M (Project & Program Management) Purposes of these models: Assess current capabilities Educate Improve 4th International Seminar 32

33 UK Office of Gov t Commerce- OGC: Prince2 plus others Visit Successful Delivery Toolkit CD and other valuable documents available free OGC works with government to improve procurement and project/programme management. We also work with suppliers to make the government marketplace more efficient and attractive to business. 4th International Seminar 33

34 Maturity of Project Management Itself Within a Category Different perspective from organizational PM maturity Maturity must be viewed by project class or category The most mature categories are: Aerospace/Defense Facilities 4th International Seminar 34

35 Chief Projects Officer/CPO Does for PM what the CFO does for financial management Directs the Project Management Office/PMO At corporate or operating division levels 4th International Seminar 35

36 Presentation Outline 1. PM within Organizations 2. PM Applications and Practices 3. PM and People 4. PM in the Next Five Years 4th International Seminar 36

37 2. PM Applications, Life Cycle Models, Practices & Tools Areas of PM Application Project Life Cycle Models PM Planning & Control Practices, Systems, and Tools 4th International Seminar 37

38 Many Areas of PM Application Rapid expansion in areas of application of PM within past 13 years PMI members 1990: 8,500; 2004: 133, PMI specific interest groups/sigs Project-driven & project dependent organizations Plus project categories previously mentioned 4th International Seminar 38

39 Diversity of Projects: 23 PMI Specific Interest Groups/SIGS Aerospace/Defense Automation Automotive E-business Environmental Financial Services Government Healthcare Hospitality Events Information Systems Info Tech n gy/telecom Int n l Development Manufacturing New Product Develop. Oil/Gas/Petrochemical Pharmaceutical Retail Service & Outsourcing Utility Industry Plus 4 others 4th International Seminar 39

40 2. PM Applications, Life Cycle Models, Practices & Tools Areas of PM Application Project Life Cycle Models PM Planning & Control Practices, Systems, and Tools 4th International Seminar 40

41 Project Life Cycle Models Many life cycle models are in use They portray a project as an overall process or system Their purposes include: To enable all to understand overall process To capture best experience, enable improvement To relate roles, responsibilities, systems and tools to all elements of the project 4th International Seminar 41

42 Generic Life Cycle: 4 Phases Concept Initiation, identification, selection Definition Feasibility, development, demonstration, design prototype, quantification Execution Implementation, realization, production & deployment, design/construct/commission, installation and test Closeout 4th International Seminar 42

43 Generic Life Cycles Apply to any project Too broad to be very useful, practical Need to be tailored to the project category And key environmental factors 4th International Seminar 43

44 3 Parameters to Work With: 1. Number & definition of phases & subphases 2. Their inter-relationships: sequential, overlapping, repeated 3. Number, definition and placement of key decision points 4th International Seminar 44

45 Identify Deliverables: Each Phase and Sub-Phase Documents related to the project: Objectives, scope, plans, schedules, reports, authorizations, work orders, etc. Documents related to the product: Specs, drawings, product cost, reports, etc. Physical products or results: Mock-ups, models, prototypes, test articles, tooling, equipment, software, facilities, materials, etc. 4th International Seminar 45

46 Defining Decision Points Key events/milestones gates at start & end of a phase or sub-phase Decisions typically authorize project manager & team to: Complete current phase, start next Revise objectives, scope, schedule Re-plan, re-start, repeat previous work Terminate or put project on hold 4th International Seminar 46

47 Deliverables & Decision Points Decisions are made based on contents or results of key deliverables Therefore these two elements are closely linked You can t make good decisions without adequate information 4th International Seminar 47

48 Stage-GateTM Life Cycle Process Source: Cooper et al 2001 see

49 Documenting a Project Life Cycle Management Process Define the life cycle: Select the life cycle model to be used Name phases, sub-phases decision points Establish inter-relationships among them Portray the result: flow chart, narrative Specify authorizing documents: Purpose & levels of approval authority For initiation & major changes 4th International Seminar 49

50 Documenting PLCMS (Cont d) Identify key roles & define responsibilities Identify major deliverables by phase Specify issue escalation procedures Specify differences for: Major vs minor projects, or Other project classes within a sub-category 4th International Seminar 50

51 Improving the PLCMS 1. Document the integrated project life cycle model 2. Document & describe the PLCMS 3. Re-engineer the integrated process Apply systems thinking: TOC 4. Implement the improvements 5. Repeat these steps as required 4th International Seminar 51

52 Hi-Tech Project Categories & Their Life Cycles 4 basic hi-tech categories (of 10) : Communication Systems Information Systems Product & Service Development Research & Development 4th International Seminar 52

53 Hi-Tech in Other Categories Defense/Aerospace: Very advanced, specialized life cycles prescribed by DOD & NASA Facilities (design and construction): Very mature, specialized life cycle models Hi-tech projects within programs in these and other categories can be placed in one of the preceding 4 hi-tech categories 4th International Seminar 53

54 Two Types of Hi-Tech Life Cycle Models Predictive: Waterfall, Prototyping, Rapid Application Development/RAD, Incremental Build, Spiral Adaptive: Adaptive Software Development/ASD, Extreme Programming/XP, SCRUM 4th International Seminar 54

55 Predictive Life Cycle Models Waterfall Linear ordering phases, sequential or overlapping, no phase repeated Prototyping Functional requirements and physical design specs are generated simultaneously Rapid Application Development/RAD Based on an evolving prototype that is not thrown away 4th International Seminar 55

56 Predictive LC Models (Cont d) Incremental Build Decomposition of large development effort into a succession of smaller components Spiral Repetition of the same set of life-cycle phases such as plan, develop, build, and evaluate until development is complete 4th International Seminar 56

57 Adaptive Life Cycle Models Adaptive Software Development/ASD: Mission driven, component based, iterative cycles, time boxed cycles, risk drive, change tolerant Extreme Programming/XP Teams of developers, managers, and users; programming done in pairs; iterative process; collective code ownership 4th International Seminar 57

58 Adaptive LC Models (Cont d) SCRUM (as in rugby) Similar to above adaptive models with iterations called sprints that typically last 30 days Defined functionality to be met in each sprint Active management role throughout 4th International Seminar 58

59 Agile Project Management Adaptive life cycles are jointly called Agile PM methods and models Agile Software Development Manifesto issued in th International Seminar 59

60 XP Resources groadmap 4th International Seminar 60

61 Rational Unified Process/RUP Process framework for Software development Software customization Also a process product developed and maintained by IBM Rational: Integrated with a suite of SW tools Available on CD-ROM or via Internet 4th International Seminar 61

62 Six Best Practices in RUP 1. Develop SW iteratively: Use iterative life cycle 2. Manage requirements 3. Use component-based architectures 4. Visually model SW 5. Continuously verify SW quality 6. Control changes to the SW For info: 4th International Seminar 62

63 Impact of Environment on Life Cycle Model Selection Project environment is of primary importance in selecting a LC model for a given project category: Organizational characteristics Familiarity with involved technology Competitive demands (schedule, other) Other 4th International Seminar 63

64 2. PM Applications, Life Cycle Models, Practices & Tools Areas of PM Application Project Life Cycle Models PM Planning & Control Practices, Systems, and Tools 4th International Seminar 64

65 PM Planning & Control Practices, Systems, and Tools Integrative & predictive All contributors to the project All life cycle phases All elements of information: scope, schedule, resources, cost, risk, technical, progress Web enabled 4th International Seminar 65

66 Programs & Portfolios Information for: Single project Multi-project programs Project Portfolios Summarize as required Link with on-going operations within the organization 4th International Seminar 66

67 Software Category PMI PM Software Survey 1999 Suites (36) Process/Scope Management (19) Schedule Management (43) Cost Management (27) Resource Management (27) Risk Management and Assessment (15) Communications Mgt (17) Subcategories: Graphics Add-ons (21) Timesheets (25) Web Publ/Organ rs (15) All PMBOK Guide Knowledge Areas Integration Management Time Management Cost Management Human Resources Management Risk Management Communications Management

68 Best Practice: One Integrated System One corporate system Able to link different systems when customer or partner demands other systems 4th International Seminar 68

69 Web-Enabled PM Systems 24 hour availability to any location Easy to update and use Improves reporting & timeliness Improves project baseline control Simplifies document retrieval and control Quicker response to problems 4th International Seminar 69

70 Distributed PM/DPM Software Many areas of application now using DPM Away from complex desktop apps to easy-to-use browser based systems Market: Over US$3 billion in th International Seminar 70

71 Critical Chain vs Critical Path Resource buffers quantified in CC Range estimates of duration in CC Some claim great benefits from CC Others say CPM can be used in same way 4th International Seminar 71

72 Russian Resource Critical Path/RPC Considers all constraints Calculates resource constrained activity float (similar to CC buffers) Uses range estimates for duration and resources Produces success probabilities for risk management 4th International Seminar 72

73 Risk Management on Projects Area of great interest today Uncertainty important and useful with inherent opportunities for project improvements Lichtenberg, Denmark 4th International Seminar 73

74 Linking PM With Operations PM systems must link with the total organization Enterprise resource management/erp probably best linkage point 4th International Seminar 74

75 Presentation Outline 1. PM within Organizations 2. PM Applications and Practices 3. People and Teams in PM 4. PM in the Next Five Years 4th International Seminar 75

76 3. PM & People Individual Capabilities in PM Project Teams The Profession of Project Management 4th International Seminar 76

77 PM Education & Training 900+ organizations in PMI s R.E.P. program worldwide 60,000 students per year IPMA s 30 national associations provide many education & training courses Many Doctoral, Master, Bachelor degrees in PM 4th International Seminar 77

78 PM Certification Programs PMI: 2 levels: PMP & CAPM 81,913 PMPs on May 31, 2004 Heavily based on knowledge of PMBOK Critics say it is not: Based enough on capability Sufficiently application oriented Certification of project managers per se Does not deal with multi-project management 4th International Seminar 78

79 PMI Certification PMBOK now available in 8 languages Moving toward Multi-project program and portfolio management Application specific certification 4th International Seminar 79

80 IPMA Certification: 4 Levels A: Certificated Programme Director/CPD B: Certificated Project Manager/CPM C: Registered Project Management Professional/RPMP D: Project Management Fachman/Fachfrau/PMF 4th International Seminar 80

81 APM (UK) Certification Currently 3 levels: Certified Project Manager (IPMA level B) Practitioner Qualification (IPMA level C) APMP (IPMA level D) APM Group accredits trainers for OGC 4th International Seminar 81

82 Other Certification Programs Australian Institute of PM/IAPM: 3 levels Based on National Competency Standards for PM American Society for Advancement of PM/asapm: Developing a 4 level certification program NASA: 4 level internal certification 4th International Seminar 82

83 Licensing of People in PM True profession requires official licensing No country, state or province presently licenses project managers or specialists PM is a management discipline, not a true profession 4th International Seminar 83

84 3. PM & People Individual Capabilities in PM Project Teams The Profession of Project Management 4th International Seminar 84

85 Project Teams Teamwork is essential for effective project management Teamwork requires: Identification of team members Clear project objectives Achievable plan and schedule Rules Leadership by the project manager 4th International Seminar 85

86 Effective Teamwork Satisfy ALL project stakeholders Hard/soft dimension: Tangible/measurable and intangible/subtle expectations aspects Acceptable/excellent dimension: Good enough and outstanding 4th International Seminar 86

87 3. PM & People Individual Capabilities in PM Project Teams The Profession of Project Management 4th International Seminar 87

88 The Profession of PM Discussions continue around the world: Management discipline or profession? Many experienced practitioners: PM is a core competency for every executive PM is a sub set of general management; little probability that it will become a legally based profession 4th International Seminar 88

89 Presentation Outline 1. PM within Organizations 2. PM Applications and Practices 3. People and Teams in PM 4. PM in the Next Five Years 4th International Seminar 89

90 4. PM in the Next 5 Years Basic characteristics of PM: Little change Three major trends: 1. Strategic & project management linked through project portfolio management 2. Total project life cycle management, including realization of project benefits 3. New areas of PM application 4th International Seminar 90

91 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Organizational capabilities and maturity: PM will merge into general management, become required competency for top executives, similar to financial management competency 4th International Seminar 91

92 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) PM maturity models Will be at least 3 major models in wide use: PMI s OPM3, Japan s P2M, OGC/UK s PMM Adaptations will emerge within specific areas of PM application and project types Translations of these will appear in 8 or 10 languages 4th International Seminar 92

93 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Individual Capabilities in PM Certification will be Based more on proven capabilities Sharply focused on specific areas of application and/or project types Awarded at 3 or 4 levels Demonstrated PM capabilities (not necessarily certification) will be a prerequisite for senior management positions Governmental licensing in PM will not exist 4th International Seminar 93

94 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Projects, programs & project portfolios: Portfolio management will be used widely Global project categorization system based on results will be widely accepted Individual PM certification will be more focused on project type 4th International Seminar 94

95 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Project life cycle models: Catalog of models for specific project types will be available for adaptation Areas of PM Application Formalized PM will be used in essentially all areas of human endeavor 4th International Seminar 95

96 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) PM Planning & Control Systems & Tools: Systems fully integrated with corporate IS PM software further specialized to fit project types Web-enabled PM used by all Wireless devices will access complex software on centralized servers PM software vendors will begin consolidation phase of a mature industry 4th International Seminar 96

97 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Project teams: Virtual teams meet regularly on most large projects Majority of project managers will be proficient in team building and leadership Profession of PM: Many will still say it is a profession but no governmental licensing will exist PM will be widely known and used by managers at all levels 4th International Seminar 97

98 PM in the Next 5 Years (Cont d) Variations in status and applicability around the world: Still some minor differences in PM in industrialized countries Concepts will not be universally valid Cultural differences Economic differences e. g.: Developing countries in Central Africa & elsewhere 4th International Seminar 98

99 Acknowledgements Thanks to: David H. Curling Alan Harpham David L. Pells R. Max Wideman And all the many colleagues, clients, and students from whom I have learned over the decades. 4th International Seminar 99

100 Thank you for listening! Questions? Rebuttals? Arguments? Contact me at Download this paper at Go to Author>recent papers 4th International Seminar 100