Country Factsheet: Denmark

Transcription

1 The analysis of the outcome of the negotiations concerning the Partnership Agreements and ESF Operational Programmes, for the programming period Country Factsheet: Denmark January 2016

2 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Unit F1: ESF and FEAD Policy and Legislation Contact: Maeva Roulette European Commission B-1049 Brussels

3 The analysis of the outcome of the negotiations concerning the Partnership Agreements and ESF Operational Programmes, for the programming period Country Factsheet: Denmark

4 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet ( Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2016 ISBN: doi: / European Union, 2016 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.

5 Table of Contents List of tables and figures... 2 Acronyms and abbreviations... 2 Introduction Summary Overview Coherence between challenges and selected ESF Investment Priorities in Denmark Challenges for Denmark Coherence of ESF programmes to challenges addressed Allocation and concentration of budget Intervention logic and internal coherence Relationship between Specific objectives and Investment priorities Relationship between output and result indicators and specific objectives / actions Programme performance Outputs of ESF on country level Results of ESF on country level Further exploration of a number of selected themes ANNEX I - Methodological note 1

6 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 1 Overview table - Denmark... 6 Table 2 EU 2020 Headline targets... 7 Table 3 Coherence between country challenges and selected Investment Priorities... 9 Table 4 Allocation of budget across IPs Table 5 Type of actions related to investment priorities Table 6 Types of target groups related to investment priorities Table 7 Overview of output indicators linked to investment priorities Table 8 Milestone values for financial indicators in the Performance Framework Table 9a Aggregation of target values of result indicators per IP (absolute values) Table 9b Aggregation of target values of result indicators per IP (average %)) Table 10 Overview of specific attention for a number of specific themes Figure 1 Coherence between challenges and selected Investment Priorities Figure 2 Coherence between Result Indicators and Specific Objectives Figure 3 Coherence between Output Indicators and Actions ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CPP/PP CPR CSR ESL ERDF ESF IL IP MS NRP OI OP PA RI SO TO Commission Position Papers Common Provisions Regulation Country Specific Recommendations Early school leaving European Regional Development Fund European Social Fund Intervention logic Investment Priorities Member States National Reform Programmes Output indicators Operational Programmes Partnership Agreements Result indicators Specific Objectives Thematic Objectives 2

7 INTRODUCTION ESIF resources in Denmark are organised into four Operational programmes: one ERDF programme, one EAFRD programme, one ESF programme and one EMFF programme. In total, 1,310,232,214 Euro is allocated to ESIF, of which 206,615,841 Euro is allocated to ESF.1 The ESF contribution amounts to approximately 15.8% of the total EU funding foreseen. Four of Denmark's regions have been categorised as 'more developed' while the fifth as in 'transition'. The ESF OP 'Vækst via uddannelse og iværksætteri' is a national mono-fund programme dedicated to promoting growth through education and entrepreneurship. It covers the entirety of Denmark. The OP seeks to increase productivity and employment through supporting potential entrepreneurs and existing entrepreneurs, and contributing to job creation through growth-oriented competence development targeted at businesses' growth needs. At the same time, the OP seeks to increase productivity by attracting a highly-qualified workforce from abroad. Moreover, the OP aims to ensure the integration of socially-excluded groups through education and employment, and to improve the quality of vocational education and reduce the number of drop-outs. ESF's contribution focuses thematically on four priority axes: Priority axis 1: Entrepreneurship and job creation Priority axis 2: Mobility across borders Priority axis 3: Inclusion through education and employment Priority axis 4: Vocational training and upper secondary education The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the ESF implementation approach in Denmark for the period It analyses the strategic orientation (relationship between Europe 2020 targets and country challenges), the strategic choices of the country in the ESIF framework (selection of thematic objectives/investment priorities), the financial allocation (concentration on TO and relative share of total Cohesion Policy spending), the Intervention Logic and Programme performance measurement (relationship between Investment Priorities, specific objectives, activities, and output and result indicators). The Country factsheets are drawn up based on information extracted from an online database that was developed for the purpose of this study. This database stores quantitative and qualitative information from the 28 Partnership Agreements (PA) and all 184 ESF (mono and multi-fund) Operational Programmes (OP) across the 28 Member States (excluding three Technical Assistance Operational Programmes in France, Greece and Spain). Quantitative information mostly refers to financial allocation to OPs and Investment Priorities (always considering EU funding), target and baseline values of indicators; while qualitative/descriptive information refers to text entries (either extracted directly from the OP such as for the description of specific objectives, actions and target groups, or in the form of justification of assessment scores). All qualitative information in the database was standardised according common categories, called ID categories, allowing aggregation of data at the country and EU 28 level. 1 As reported in the Partnership Agreement 3

8 Information was collected (and also categorised according pre-defined ID categories) on the following features of each PA and OP: Issues/challenges as expressed in the CSR and CPP (qualitative information; 17 standard categories); Investment Priorities (19 standard categories) 2 ; Specific Objectives (qualitative information; 27 standard categories); Actions (qualitative information; 24 standard categories) Target groups (qualitative information; 15 standards categories); Result indicators (titles; 15 standard categories) Output indicators (titles; 17 standards categories) Methodology for target setting (qualitative information; 4 standard categories) Next to this factual information from PA and OP, this study also included a normative assessment on how each of the above elements corresponds and forms a coherent intervention logic, explaining a clear link between challenges identified, Investment Priorities, Specific Objectives, Actions, target groups, output / result indicators and target values selected: assessment of coherence between IPs and relevant challenges; assessment of coherence between Specific Objective (or Specific Objectives) and relevant IP; assessment of coherence between result indicators and relevant Specific Objective (SO) assessment of coherence between actions and relevant SO; assessment of coherence between target groups and relevant SO; assessment of coherence between output indicators and actions; assessment of methodology used for target setting. In order to ensure a homogeneous and transparent assessment across different MS and OPs, ordinal (likert) scales have been developed for categorising and ranking various types of assessments of the intervention logic of the OP (from not at all, little, somewhat, to very coherent). Every assessment score made by the expert was accompanied by a descriptive entry justifying the attributed score, allowing consistency checks across all assessments made. All the above categories and definitions are presented in Annex 1. The database was completed by Country experts on the basis of a note providing step by step guidance on the data to be collected (including reference to specific sections/tables of the OPs, and categories of information). Country experts received ad hoc support by the Core Team during the data entering phase (including answers to Frequently Asked Questions). Database entries were further quality checked by the Core Team on the basis of the justifications provided by Country experts and following an iterative process of fine-tuning and standardisation of information. In the Annex to this report, a methodological note is included providing information on how data for this report have been gathered and allocated to common categories, and the criteria upon which assessments have been made on the external and internal coherence of the Operational Programmes. 2 regardless of its allocation to one or more Priority Axes within the same OP 4

9 1. SUMMARY The main development needs identified for Denmark relate to the employability of people at the margins of the labour market and to the low attainment levels and high drop-out rates among students in upper secondary education (especially vocational training). Specifically, there is a need to improve the quality of vocational training, lower the number of early school leavers and increase the number of apprenticeships. Denmark has compiled a single national ESF OP addressing TO8 (IP 8iii, 8v, 8vii), TO9 (IP 9i) and TO10 (IP 10iii and 10iv). The OP consists of four Priority Axes (PA1/TO8, PA2/TO8, PA3/TO9 and PA4/TO10). The OP has an ESF budget of EUR 206 million, including TA. The ESF funds are mainly committed to TO8 and TO10. Denmark has an efficient public administration and, accordingly, the topics of TO11 are not a priority in Denmark, neither at ESF nor at national level. External coherence is high; both the PA and the OP are integrating the CPP/CSR recommendations through either the selection of the most relevant IPs, the reference to these documents in the justification of thematic selection or through the choice of actions and target groups. The allocation of funds along TO is also coherent, taking into account the types of activities and the envisaged output targets. Internal coherence is also high. Vertically, the Specific Objectives are highly coherent to their native IP and the connected challenges. There are coherent causal chains in the line Specific Objective-Target Group-Activity-Output. Horizontal Coherence across TO/IP is also high, since specific objectives and activities are complementary and synergetic. The main weakness of the intervention logic lies in the coherence between Specific Objectives and Result Indicators. Result Indicators are basically adequate, although they do not reach, in some cases, the same high-level of coherence as the other elements of the intervention logic. Overall, the target values' orientation is in line with the intervention logic, proving its coherence. Regarding youth employment policies (IP 8.ii), there are references in the CSR, CPP and other relevant strategic documents. Even if the relevant IP 8.ii is not selected, the programme is focusing on two main issues, i.e. education for vulnerable young people (through IP9i), and vocational education and preventing early school leaving (through IP 10iv) 5

10 2. OVERVIEW 2.1 Table 1 Overview table - Denmark Short description of Main Areas in CSR/CPP - Access to employment (low-skilled, non-eu nationals, young and older people, persons with disabilities) - Self-employment, entrepreneurship and business creation - Active inclusion - Promotion of social inclusion - Early school leaving - Access to good quality early childhood, primary and secondary education Selected IP (on national level) Technical assistance Total Budget (EU funding, without TA) ESF share for the country (ESF/ERDF ratio) % earmarked for social inclusion (TO9/total budget) Regions covered Total ESF Budget allocated to IP Actions 8.iii Guidance 2. Vocation training 3. Higher education 14. Start-up support 8.v Arrangements at working place for individuals 16. Change management 8.vii Guidance/career support International mobility/development of EURES network Information and recruitment services 9.i Vocational training 6. Combating early school leaving 19. Arrangements at work-place Youth education for vulnerable young people; Induction programmes to the labour market Support to social enterprises 10.iii Vocational training 4. Training in higher education 10.iv Vocational training 6. Combating early school leaving 7. Apprenticeships % 21.1% More developed and Transition Main output and results OI: Participants in consultation projects Participants in entrepreneurship education projects RI: Qualification, employment upon leaving and 6 months after leaving OI: Micro-establishments and SMEs that receive support Participants RI: Qualification, employment upon leaving OI: Persons in spouses programme Persons at the EURES CV Bank RI: employment upon leaving, Improved capacity of institutions OI: Participants RI: qualification, in education, in employment upon leaving, disadvantaged in job search/edu/training/empl., in employment OI: Participants RI: qualification, in education upon leaving OI: Participants RI: qualification, in education upon leaving 6

11 3. COHERENCE BETWEEN CHALLENGES AND SELECTED ESF INVESTMENT PRIORITIES IN DENMARK 3.1 Challenges for Denmark Denmark faces several challenges when considering its performance in relation to the Europe 2020 indicators and the Country Specific Recommendations, as published in 2013 and Overall, the main challenge lies in increasing employability of people at the margins of the labour market (in particular persons with a migrant background, long-term unemployed and low-skilled). While employment levels are generally above the EU average, for non-eu nationals, youth and older persons these are considerably lower. Another challenge, identified in the CPP/CSR, focuses on low attainment levels and high drop-out rates among students in upper secondary education (especially vocational training). This corresponds to the medium- to long-term challenge of ensuring that labour supply matches the demands of the labour market. Accordingly, the emphasis is on improving the quality of vocational training with the view to reduce early school leaving and increase the number of apprenticeships. With regards to the Europe 2020 targets, Denmark is well on track. The education targets (reducing early school leaving and securing a share of years old completing tertiary or equivalent education) have already been reached. 3 Regarding early school leaving, the target was in fact reached in 2006; however, there was a significant increase in the early school leaving rate between 2006 and Since 2007, the share of early school leavers has been decreasing. Similarly, the target proportion of years old completing tertiary, or equivalent, education has already been reached. As of 2012, the share is 43%. Together with Sweden and the Netherlands, Denmark has one of the most ambitious employment rate targets in the EU); it is expected that this target will be reached by Finally, with regards to reducing the number of people living in households with low work intensity, the proportion of people with low work intensity increased between 2008 and 2011 (economic crisis) to 480,000. From 2011 to 2012, there had been a decrease to 464,000. Table 2 EU 2020 Headline targets Europe 2020 headline targets Baseline national Europe2020 values 4 National Europe2020 targets (NRP) 75% of the population aged should be employed 75,7% 80,0% Reducing early school leaving to less than 10% 9,6 % <10,0% At least 40% of years old completing tertiary or equivalent education Reducing the number of people in or at risk of poverty or exclusion by at least 20 million 41,2 % > 40,0% 480,000* - 22,000 * Persons in households with low work intensity. 3 Denmark contributes to fulfilling the EU targets through the national targets, which, however, are computed by other methods than the EU targets. 4 as indicated in the Partnership Agreement, Chapter 1.1 7

12 The Country Specific Recommendations (as well as the Commission Position Paper) address challenges that are relevant to TO8/TO9/TO10.The recommendations largely reflect the policy objectives of the Danish government. Denmark has already initiated a number of measures and further measures will be implemented. Below an overview is provided, which outlines the main challenges identified in these strategic documents, clustered by thematic objective. Regarding TO8: Labour supply matching skill demands: There is a need to secure a sufficient labour supply that matches skill demands to facilitate economic growth, sustained welfare and plans to avoid labour market bottlenecks (CPP) Low employment levels (non-eu nationals, older, youth, low-skilled, persons with disabilities, long-term unemployed): The employment rates in these categories of workers are considerably lower in comparison to the overall employment rate in DK (CPP and CSR) Regarding TO9: Risk of poverty among marginalised groups: Some groups (immigrants and descendants of immigrants) have been more heavily affected by poverty than others (CPP) Regarding TO10: Early school leaving: high drop-out rates are reported among students in upper secondary education, particularly in vocational training (CSR and CPP) Low attainment levels/educational outcomes: low attainment levels continue contributing to the risk of skilled labour shortages (CSR and CPP) Transition to the labour market: there is a need to improve transition from education to the labour market, particularly by increasing the number of apprenticeships (CSR and CPP) The challenges mentioned in the CSR correspond to the challenges identified in the CPP. The CSR are mentioned on several occasions, but unlike the CPP they are not specifically cited in connection with outlining the actions. The PA mentions the CPP on several occasions and expressly provides that the ESIF contribution will, to a large degree, reflect the recommendations as provided in the CPP. Also, the list of challenges, provided in the PA, reflect the challenges, formulated in the CPP, to a great extent. Overall, the Partnership Agreement addresses all of the challenges mentioned in the CPP/CSR. With regard to marginalised groups, the PA focuses on measures that seek to strengthen their inclusion in the labour market. Young people are addressed specifically, whilst other groups are addressed together. The actions and results are described with concrete examples of actions. With the exception of one challenge (transition from education to labour market), the partnership agreement provides sufficiently adequate information on how to address them. Concerning the transition from education to labour market, the partnership agreement contains basic information on how to address this challenge. 8

13 3.2 Coherence of ESF programmes to challenges addressed The table below provides an overview on the types of challenges tackled by the selected Investment Priorities in the Danish OP. Table 3 Coherence between country challenges and selected Investment Priorities Challenges 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv 1 A2E for job seekers and inactive Self-employment and business creation 1 6 Employability 1 12 Access to education 1 13 Early school leaving 1 14 Lifelong learning 1 15 LM relevance of education and training 1 Total As shown in the Table above, all the CSRs are addressed through one or more of the selected IPs in the Danish OP. The challenge of ensuring labour supply is addressed through the selection of IPs 8iii, 8v, 8vii, but also 10iv (through transition from education to labour market). The challenge of low employment levels in the case of non-eu nationals, older workers, youth, low skilled people and people with disabilities is addressed through IP 9i. Similarly, the risk of poverty among marginalised groups is addressed through the selection of IP 9i. Finally, the challenge of low attainment levels is addressed through IP 10 iii. The challenge of high drop-out rates is addressed through IP 10iv (IP 10i is not selected) and the same applies to the transition from education to labour market. The issues identified in the CSR, are addressed in the OP in the following ways: Low employment levels (non-eu nationals, older, youth, low-skilled, persons with disabilities, long-term unemployed) are addressed through the selection of IP 9i. Overall, there is a match between the description of the challenge in the CSR and the addressed challenge in the section of IP 9i. The scope of IP 9i is somewhat broader, covering in addition to employment levels the risk of poverty among marginalised groups and low attainment levels. Early school leaving (high drop-out rates are reported among students in upper secondary education, particularly in vocational training) are addressed through the selection of IP 10iv. Overall, there is a match between the description of the challenge in the CSR and the challenge addressed through the section of IP 10iv. Similar to above, the scope of IP 10iv is wider, as it covers in addition to early school leaving and high drop-out rates the effectiveness of vocational education. To this end, the actions foresee, amongst other things, efforts to create more apprenticeships. Low attainment levels/educational outcomes (low attainment levels continue contribute to the risk of shortages of skilled labour) are addressed through selection of IP 10iii. IP 10iii specifically addresses the challenges of the high proportion of unskilled people and the low percentage of employees with higher education qualifications. As such, there is a match with the challenges identified in the CSR. Transition from education to the labour market (there is a need to improve transition from education to labour market, in particular by increasing the number of apprenticeships) is addressed through the selection of IP 10iv (see above). 9

14 In conclusion, the four challenges identified in the CSR are addressed primarily through the selection of IPs 9i, 10iii and 10iv. In terms of financial allocation, approximately 60.5% of the OPs total budget is allocated to the three investment priorities. In order to illustrate the coherence between the challenges tackled by the IP, the figure below provides a more detailed insight into how selected IPs address the challenges identified in the CSR and CPP, scoring each IP on a three point scale to assess whether the IP is explicitly addressing one of the challenges, partly, or not all. Figure 1 Coherence between challenges and selected Investment Priorities 3. The IP selected is implicitly addressing one of the needs to address challenges identified in the CSR and CPP (by a specific action or a horizontal principle) 2. The IP selected is addressing a specific aspect of one of the needs to address the challenges identified in the CSR and CPP (by partly referring to the challenge or a side aspect) 1. The IP selected is not addressing one of the challenges identified in the CSR and CPP No Information Overall, there is a high coherence between the selected IPs and the challenges identified in the CSR/CPP. The OP is integrating the CSR/CPP recommendations through the selection of the relevant IPs. As shown in the figure above, four of the IPs selected explicitly address one of the challenges identified in the CSR/CPP. IP 8iii addresses the need to promote self-employment, entrepreneurship and business creation, as means of increasing labour supply, which was also mentioned in the CPP. IP 9i specifically addresses the social exclusion of people at the margins of the labour market (CPP) and low attainment levels (CSR/CPP). IP 10iii addresses attainment levels/educational outcomes; IP 10iv addresses the transition from education to the labour market (CSR/CPP). In contrast, IPs 8v and 8vii only address a specific aspect of the challenges identified in the CSR/CPP. The former focuses on the development of workers competencies, but not on completion rates in the vocational youth education system, which was also recommended in the CPP. On the other hand, it includes aspects that can be targeted towards those who are at the margins of the labour market, including people with disabilities and minority ethnic groups. As such, the action addresses the challenge of low employment levels/risk of poverty among those aforementioned groups (CSR/CPP). However, the final aspect constitutes only a small part of the overall actions foreseen. The latter addresses only part of the challenge to increase labour supply. 10

15 4. ALLOCATION AND CONCENTRATION OF BUDGET This chapter provides an overview of the financial allocation data per IP and how the distribution of the budget complies with the ESF Regulation provisions on the financial allocation, including information on how much budget is spent on Social Inclusion (Thematic Objective 9) and whether the concentration principle is respected. In the table below, an overview is provided on the budget allocated to each Investment Priority per OP and in total per country Table 4 Allocation of budget across IPs IP Union funding ( ) % over ESF budget (TA excluded) 8iii ,0 8v ,0 8vii ,5 9i ,1 10iii ,7 10iv ,7 TOTAL TA TOTAL ESF WITH TA The table above shows that, in total, Euro is available for Denmark. After analysing the distribution and concentration of budget between IPs across OPs, the following can be concluded: Focus of ESF: The ESF funds are mainly committed to TO8 and TO10. Denmark has an efficient public administration and, accordingly, TO11 is not addressed through ESF action. Approximately 60.5% of the OPs budget is allocated to IPs 9i, 10iii and 10iv i.e. those IPs that primarily address the challenges identified in the CSR. Approximately 60.5% of the OPs budget is allocated to IPs 9i, 10iii and 10iv i.e. the IPs that primarily address the challenges identified in the CSR. Social inclusion: 21.1% of the OP's budget is allocated to social inclusion. This slightly exceeds the minimum requirement of 20% required by the ESF Regulation. Concentration principle: The Danish ESF OP satisfies the thematic concentration principle with more than 98% of resources being distributed across five priorities (8iii, 8v, 9i, 10iii and 10iv). 11

16 5. INTERVENTION LOGIC AND INTERNAL COHERENCE 5.1 Relationship between Specific objectives and Investment priorities Within Denmark, a total of six IPs are selected. Each IP has a single Specific Objective: The SO under IP 8iii seeks to increase the number of participants that have completed a business start-up consultation process or have received courses in entrepreneurship at educational institutions and thereby increase the number of self-employed persons and their chances for staying in business. The SO under IP 8v seeks to increase employment in ESF-supported companies by developing workers competencies and thereby supporting the companies' growth. The SO under IP 8vii seeks to increase the mobility of the workforce across borders. For IP 9i, the specific objective is to increase the employment of persons at the margins of the labour market. More young people with vulnerabilities are expected to complete youth education and persons with vulnerabilities shall complete an induction programme. Finally, the SOs under IPs 10iii and 10iv seek to increase the number of persons with vocational education and higher education. In theory, the Specific Objective of an IP should effectively narrow down the scope of the IP and capture the (direction of the) change that the Member State seeks to achieve with EU support. Moreover, the specific objectives should be specific enough to be quantitatively evaluated. All SOs across the different OPs were carefully assessed on this aspect. Five out of six specific objectives, identified in the OP, effectively narrow down the scope of the IP, fully capture the direction of the change sought, and are specific enough to be quantitatively evaluated. The specific objectives are specific in terms of the measures foreseen and those who are expected to benefit from them. They allow for an effective monitoring and, as result, quantitative evaluation. The only exception is the specific objective under IP 8vii of increasing mobility of the workforce across borders. The specific objectives effectively narrow the scope of the IPs and involve a number of specific actions. However, not all of the planned changes can be qualitatively evaluated (and result indicators are missing for some of them). 5.2 Relationship between actions and Investment Priorities Actions should contribute to the achievement of the specific objectives. The table below provides an overview the types of actions, which are selected per IP. Per IP, a maximum of four actions are selected on the basis of the description in the Operational programme, as identified in the columns of the table, while the rows reflect the IP across all ESF programme in the country. Table 5 Types of actions related to investment priorities ACTIONS INDIVDUALS 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv TA Total 1 Guidance Vocational training Higher education Combating early school leaving apprenticeships

17 9 Working places arrangements - individuals 1 1 ACTIONS ENTITIES 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv TA Total 14 start-up support change management Working places arrangements - entities Improving international mobility Entities (Other) Total As shown in the table above, the actions described under the OP are varied. Under IP 8iii, the selected actions aim at providing guidance and education to individuals, whilst also seeking to provide start-up incentives. This includes courses that are dedicated to entrepreneurship within the existing education system (vocational and higher). For IP 8v the actions support competency development in businesses with the intention to support their growth. They focus specifically on SMEs as those which have the biggest growth potential. Actions under IP 8vii include a variety of actions, which seek to increase the mobility of the workforce across borders. The activities are targeting both companies and job seekers. Additionally, an effort is made to improve the EURES network and the availability of information. Under IP 9i the actions focus on both young people (in particular those in vocational training), and in supporting or establishing social enterprises. The main actions under IP 10iii concern vocational and higher education for individuals. Finally, the main focus of the actions under IP 10iv is on improving the effectiveness of vocational education and preventing early school leaving. To this end, the actions plan, amongst other things, to create more apprenticeships. Finally, actions should contribute to the achievement of specific objectives. In order to assess whether this was the case, we measured all actions falling under each IP. The table below provides an overview of the outcomes for all IPs (referring to the total number of IPs). Five out of six of the actions selected are fully appropriate and can contribute to the achievement of the specific objective. The only exceptions are those actions under IP 8 v. The actions are appropriate to achieve the objective. However, the specific objective contains three different levels: the first addresses workers' competencies; the second concentrates on businesses growth potential; and the third targets increased employment in the aforementioned growth-oriented businesses. The specified actions relate, to a varied degree to the different aspects of the specific objective. For example, the action planned under 'supply of competencies' does not seek to boost the competencies of workers, but rather to facilitate the recruitment of workers. With regard to the remaining actions, they are fully appropriate to the objective, describe clearly how they contribute to the objective and are detailed enough so that their progress can be monitored. 5.3 Investment Priorities and target groups addressed Investment priorities and specific objectives address different target groups. The table below provides an overview on the target groups addressed by IPs on country level. 13

18 Table 6 Types of target groups related to investment priorities TARGET GROUPS INDIVDUALS 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv Total 3 Public Employment services Enterprises/Economic operators Unemployed, incl LTU Employees Young people in education Migrants Disabled/disadvantaged Other 1 1 TOTAL As shown in the table above, the OP embodies a good variety of target groups. Out of the selected target groups, young people in education, unemployed and enterprises/economic operations are the most commonly selected targets. These correspond with the specific objectives selected and the actions taken to achieve the objectives. An assessment was also made to highlight the coherence between the target groups and actions on IP level, indicating whether the defined target groups fully matched the specific objectives falling under that IP. With the exception of IP 9i, the OP does not define the specific targets of the actions. The main target groups could nevertheless be identified upon analysing the content of the planned actions. The target groups fully match the specific objective and are the main drivers to the change sought. 5.4 Relationship between output and result indicators and specific objectives / actions Coherence between Result Indicators and Specific Objectives Result indicators should reflect the most significant intended immediate and longer-term effects of the programme priorities and the expected changes. Each Result Indicator in the OP has been assessed against this criterion by Country experts. In the figure below, an overview is provided illustrating the extent to which the selected indicators represent the SO and the scope of the planned changes. Each Specific Objective is supported by multiple Result Indicators. However, there are instances in which there is an immediate result that is not addressed by a Result Indicator (e.g. under IP9i actions are foreseen to support social enterprises, but there is no result indicator to measure the immediate result of the actions). 14

19 Figure 2 Coherence between Result Indicators and Specific Objectives 3. the result indicator represents fully or for a for a large part the specific objective and scope of the changes foreseen 2. the result indicator represents somewhat the specific objective and scope of the changes foreseen the result indicator represents limited the specific objectives and scope of the changes foreseen 20 As shown in the figure above, the majority of the result indicators 5 are representative of the specific objective and the changes foreseen. Seven of the indicators are relevant for the specific objective, but often only indirectly. For example, under IP 8v, the link between increased competencies and increased employment in ESF-supported companies is rather weak. Similarly, under IP 9, the result indicator measuring the number of those who are in process of obtaining education is relevant, but it does not measure the number of those who have completed education and the link with employment is weak. The least coherent, in terms of specific objectives and changes foreseen, are indicators under IP 8vii. For example, the indicator that seeks to assess the satisfaction of service users may be an indicator of improved job-matching, but only indirectly. Similarly, the number of positions advertised is relevant in relation to job-matching. A higher number of advertised positions may increase the number of positions successfully matched. The connection, however, is weak. Coherence between Output Indicators and Actions In the same way as the result indicators, output indicators should reflect the scope of activities implemented by ESF. For the output indicators, an assessment was also made to show how these reflect the specific actions (see figure below). Figure 3 Coherence between Output Indicators and Actions 5 Four of Denmark's regions have been categorised as 'more developed' while the fifth has been defined as in 'transition' and, accordingly, indicators are provided separately for the two types of regions. The type of indicators is nonetheless the same. Hence they are not distinguished in the present section. 15

20 3. the output indicator represents completely or to a large extent the scope of the activities implemented 2. the output indicator represents to some extent the scope of the activities implemented the output indicator represents to a limited extent the scope of the activities implemented 7 0. No information As shown in the figure above, the majority of the output indicators are fully coherent with the foreseen actions. The most notable exceptions are the output indicators under IP 8vii. Two indicators are provided for the IP. The first one (number of persons in spouses programme) is relevant, but represents only a small part of the actions foreseen. As such, it is not sufficient to indicate the overall output produced by the implementation of the operation. Similarly, the second output indicator under the IP (number of CVs in the EURES database) is relevant, but is not sufficient in order to indicate the overall output produced by the implementation of the operation. The output indicator under IP 9i represents most of the activities implemented. It does not, however, reflect the support provided to (establishing) social enterprises. The remaining indicators correspond well with the actions foreseen under the IP. They seek to measure the number of participants in the various consultation efforts, projects and processes. 16

21 6. PROGRAMME PERFORMANCE One of the key elements introduced by the ESIF Regulations is that programmes should provide clear, transparent, and measurable aims and targets for accountability and results. Countries and regions are requested to clearly state the objectives they intend to achieve with available resources and indicate how progress towards these goals will be measured (Performance Framework). This will allow for regular monitoring and debate on how financial resources are used. 6.1 Outputs of ESF on country level The actions undertaken by the different programmes lead to outputs. Output indicators are measured in physical (or monetary) units. In the context of the intervention logic, outlined in cohesion policy programmes, output indicators should be logically linked to and reflect the types of actions planned. The outputs should also contribute towards the achievement of results; the targets set for the output indicators should be consistent with the financial allocation envisaged. Total aggregation of target values of output indicators on national level Output indicator values are not disaggregated by gender Total aggregations by Investment Priority The table below provides OI target values, which have been aggregated around common categories of output indicators per IP on country level (a full list that shows the common categories of output indicators, used for the purposes of this analysis, is presented in Annex I: Categories) 6. Table 7 Main categories of Output indicators by investment priorities OUTPUT 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv Total INDICATORS Unemployed Low education Other disadvantaged N. micro SMEs Other The output indicators selected by the OP concern unemployed (8iii and 8vii) and disadvantaged (9i) participants, as well as participants with low educational levels (10iii and 10iv). The OIs also relate to micro and SMEs (8v), although the target value shown in the table refers to both the number of supported enterprises as well as to the number of participants in actions supporting leadership and competence boosting in SMEs. Likewise, the OI belonging to the other common category, under IP 8iii, refers to participants in consultation projects; under 6 The indicators that are closely linked to the indicators, as presented in Annex 1 and 2 of the ESF regulation, have similar definitions and levels of measurement. These indicators were allocated to one of the common output indicators and target values were aggregated for these groups of indicators. 17

22 8vii OIs refer to participants in spouse programmes. Overall, the target values' orientation is in line with the intervention logic, which proves its coherence. Establishment of the performance framework Countries and regions are requested to clearly state the objectives they intend to achieve with the available resources and indicate how progress towards these goals will be measured at the level of the priority axes in 2018 and 2023, both in terms of output and financial indicators (Performance Framework). Out of the 18 output indicators selected by the OP (excluding TA output indicators), 14 are included in the Performance Framework (approximately 77%). With regards to the challenges identified in the CSR - and addressed through the selection of IPs 9i, 10iii and 10iv - the Performance Framework includes a total of 6 output indicators (total for developed and transition regions). These relate exclusively to the number of participants in the category other disadvantaged (IP 9i) and with primary (ISCED 1) or lower secondary education (ISCED 2) (IPs 10iii and 10iv). The selected output indicators represent the challenges and changes proposed in the CSR. Concerning financial indicators, the table below provides an overview of the milestone and target values for the financial indicators at the Priority Axis level in the Performance Framework. Milestone values for the different priority axes are set along a similar absorption rate of approximately 23.2%. Table 8 Milestone values for financial indicators in the Performance Framework PA Nr. PA Title TO (IP) Milestone value Entrepreneurship and job creation TO8 (8iii, 8v) Final target value 2023 Absorption rate (milestone over final target) % ,39 2 Mobility across borders TO8 (8vii) ,21 3 Inclusion through TO ,43 education and employment (9i) 4 Vocational training and upper secondary education TO10 (10iii, 10iv) ,45 Information on the methodology of target setting The OP refers in general terms to the methodology used to set target values: the targets were set by relying on the experience of Structural Funds in ; when this was not feasible, experience from ex ante evaluations, evaluations from or other scientific analysis was used. Detailed information on the methodology for target setting is provided in the Note of 11 October 2013 'Target setting in the Danish ESF Programme ' (not annexed to the OP). Targets for output indicators are mainly based on the unit cost per participant (when possible the unit cost is based on the programming period), the budget available and - when relevant - the average size of the participating establishment. For PA 2 (Crossborder mobility) the targets for output indicators are based on the previous experience with the EURES initiative. 18

23 6.2 Results of ESF on country level Total aggregation of target values of output indicators on national level The table below provides an overview of aggregated target values across common categories of Result Indicators per IP on country level (a full list of common categories of result indicators, used for the purposes of this analysis, is presented in Annex I: Categories) 7. In Denmark, the majority of Result indicators can only be aggregated as percentage values, as 40 out of 45 RIs are expressed in percentage form and no reference is made to the common OI. Consequently, the values of OI targets expressed in numbers (see Table 9a below) cannot be considered significant in relation to the overall expected attainment levels. Table 9a Aggregation of target values of result indicators per IP (absolute values) RESULT INDICATOR 8vii 9i Total ST_EDUCATION ST_EMPLOYMENT RI_OTHER Table 10b. Aggregation of target values of result indicators per IP (average %)) RESULT INDICATOR 8iii 8v 8vii 9i 10iii 10iv Total ST_EDUCATION 40,0 46,0 50,0 46,3 ST_QUALIFICATION 90,0 90,0 40,0 47,0 40,0 66,2 ST_EMPLOYMENT 60,0 3,0 15,0 30,6 ST_DISADVANTAGED JOB SEARCHING 10,0 10,0 LT_EMPLOYMENT 65,0 25,0 45,0 RI_INSTITUTIONS CAPACITY 100,0 100,0 RI_OTHER 85,0 85,0 Out of the 45 result indicators, 89% are expressed in percentage values and around 11% in absolute values. When considering the usage frequency of Result Indicator types in the different IPs, in the case of TO8 and TO9, there is a relatively broad coverage of result indicators specific to each IP, which covers both the qualification/education and employment side. Result indicators under TO10 depict a predictable situation, focusing on the education and qualifications of participants. With regard to aggregated values, a number of the result indicators cannot be attributed to any of the predefined categories; however, it can be said that these indicators mainly refer to the number of vacancies on the EURES website. Table 9b above tells us that, on average, 90% of participants in actions planned under IP8iii will have gained a qualification upon leaving; 60% will be in employment upon leaving and 65% six months later. The average percentage of expected participants in employment (upon leaving or 6 months after the end of the intervention) is significantly lower for actions under IP 9i this is due to 7 The indicators that are closely linked to the indicators as presented in Annex 1 and 2 of the ESF regulation have similar definitions and levels of measurement. These indicators were allocated to one of the common result indicators, and target values were aggregated for these groups of indicators. 19

24 the fact that this IP is directed at people who are furthest from the labour market and whose employment changes are understandably lower. Information on the methodology used for target setting The OP refers in general terms to the methodology used to set target values: the targets were set by relying on the experience of Structural Funds in ; when this was not feasible, experience from ex ante evaluations, evaluations from or other scientific analysis was used. Detailed information on the methodology for target setting is provided in the Note of 11 October 2013 'Target setting in the Danish ESF Programme ' (not annexed to the OP). Targets for result indicators rely e.g. on the ESF thematic evaluation of human resources, the experience from projects in period and the experience with the EURES initiative (for PA 2 Cross-border mobility). Targets for result indicators are also set on the basis of existing targets (such as national targets) and available administrative/statistical data, e.g. on the total number of relevant enterprises, completion rates, share of participants interested in job-searching, etc. 20

25 7. FURTHER EXPLORATION OF A NUMBER OF SELECTED THEMES The study devotes specific attention to a number of selected themes, which include: youth employment policies; strengthening the institutional capacities of public authorities and stakeholders; efficient public administration; and the investment in Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs). These themes are operationalised in terms or Investment Priorities that are related to these themes. The table below provides an overview of how these themes are addressed in the ESF OPs in the country. When considering youth employment policies (IP 8.ii), there are references in the CSR, CPP and other relevant strategic documents. The relevant IP 8.ii is not selected. The programme is focusing on two main issues: education for young vulnerable people (through IP9i), and vocational education and preventing early school leaving (through IP 10iv). Youth employment is mentioned in the Specific Objective for IP9i; however, IP9i focuses mainly on vulnerable young people. The programme foresees two main actions: those concentrating on youth education for vulnerable young people, and those concentrating on induction programmes and support to social enterprises. Moreover, the Specific Objective for IP 10iv, which aims to increase the number of persons who have completed vocational education, targets young people in youth education (lower/upper secondary) or those already in vocational education, although adults are not excluded. Considering investments in Active Labour Market Policy (8i, 8ii, 8v and partly 8iii), there is no explicit reference in the CSR/CPP. Out of the relevant IPs, only IP 8iii is selected. Active Labour Market Policies are not mentioned specifically in any of the Specific Objectives. However, both IP8iii and 8v seek to increase employment through increasing the number of people who are self-employed and those who are employed in ESF-supported businesses, respectively. The target group is potential entrepreneurs, including students in vocational or higher education and new entrepreneurs. The actions aim to provide guidance and education to individuals and also seek to provide start-up incentives. They include guidance and support to entrepreneurs, and those considering becoming entrepreneurs, in the form of targeted consultations, mentor programmes and access to existing facilities and courses, which are dedicated to entrepreneurship as part of the existing education system (vocational and higher). Denmark does not address IP 11ii, because this topic is neither considered relevant nor mentioned in the CSR, CPP or other relevant strategic documents. Denmark has an efficient public administration and there is no need for ESF financing of institutional capacity of public authorities. 21

26 Table 11 Overview of specific attention for a number of specific themes Theme Identified in challenges? How Is the theme addressed? Target group Actions How much budget is allocated to each theme Youth employment policies (IP 8.ii) Yes The challenge is addressed through the target groups of IP9i 7. unemployed 12. young people education 18. migrants 21. disadvantaged 2. vocational training 6. combating ESL 19. arrangements working place - entities -- enhancing institutional capacity of public authorities and stakeholders and efficient public administration (IP 11i) No There is no need for ESF financing of the institutional capacity of public authorities Investment in Active Labour Market Policy (8i, 8ii, 8v and partly 8iii.) No explicit reference in the CSR, CPP and other relevant strategic documents IP8iii is selected. Active labour market policies are addressed through the target groups. 5. enterprises 12. young people education 15 other 1.guidance/career support 2. vocational training 4. higher education 14. start-up support -- 22

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