AVANTAJE SI DEZAVANTAJE ALE ESTIMATIILOR MIMIC ALE ECONOMIEI ASCUNSE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF THE MIMIC ESTIMATES OF SHADOW ECONOMY

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1 Rezumate, 3-4/2009 ROMANA Asistent univ. drd. Adriana AnaMaria ALEXANDRU Economist Octavia LEPAS HSBC, Paris AVANTAJE SI DEZAVANTAJE ALE ESTIMATIILOR MIMIC ALE ECONOMIEI ASCUNSE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF THE MIMIC ESTIMATES OF SHADOW ECONOMY Abstract: The paper aims to present the main advantages and disadvantages of one of the most used method of estimation of shadow economy-the structural equation models. To do that, we briefly present the estimation procedure on one special case of structural equation modeling, the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. Forth more, we showed that several criticisms are misguided, while others effectively highlight weaknesses of MIMIC approach. Keywords: shadow economy, MIMIC model, structural equation modelling, LISREL. Clasificarea JEL : C12, C51, E26. Profesor univ. dr. Gheorghe OPRESCU Profesor univ. dr. Ana ANDREI Catedra de Cibernetică Economică DINAMICA ECONOMIEI PRIN POLITICA STOCULUI REAL DE OBLIGATIUNI (BONDURI) CONSTANT ECONOMY DYNAMICS WITH REAL CONSTANT STOCK OF BONDS POLICY Abstract. We substantiate a relation for the economic growth quantification as an alternative to the well known models of the traditional theory of the economic growth: Solow model, Ramsey- Cass-Koompmans model, Solow-Swan-Sidrauski model, Lucas model (two sector endogenous growth model), models whose synthesis could be seen in our paper: Andrei, Imperato, Oprescu (2007), chapter 1.Equilibrium growth rate stated by us is based on IS-LM-SRAS equilibrium evolution of economy, where the equations IS and LM are specified as linear with respect to the real GDP,to the nominal interest rate and real wealth, and the SRAS as well, the lost being derived from linear Phillips curve. The evolution of the economy is determined from two dynamic continuous time equations: the first reflects the dynamics of expected inflation rate, specified as adaptive mechanism with respect to current inflation rate and the wealth dynamics, the last arising from the policy of budget deficit finance. As a consequence, the dynamics of economy depends on the policies of the government and the Central Bank. Among the three monetary policies applied in different countries, we examine here the evolution of the economy when it is applied the policy of money financing deficit, real stock of bounds being held constant, ( b t = b), the results of application of the other two politics (see section 1.6), following to be presented in another future paper. We admonish to the fact that apparently, the dynamic model is linear. In fact, we meet nonlinearities both in the wealth, inflation and real monetary stock dynamics and in the equilibrium values through government expenditures multiplier kˆ g, monetary multiplier kˆ m, and real wealth multiplier kˆ a. As a consequence, the state path and the final variables can t be analytically determined but only numerically, through simulation. The results obtained by us are illustrative. The paper comprises

2 three parts: The dynamic model deduction; Long run and short run dynamics of the economy when b t = b policy is applied; Deduction of the equilibrium growth rate for this policy. Key words: IS, LM, SRAS equilibrium; real wealth and expected inflation dynamics; monetary policy; short run evolution and long run stability; Riccati equation; logistic curve; economic equilibrium growth rate. Clasificarea JEL: E52, E 59, C61, C62 Drd. Andreea MURARU ANALIZA CALITĂłII DE INDICATOR A AGREGATULUI M1 PENTRU ACTIVITATEA ECONOMICĂ THE ANALYSIS OF M1 LEADING INDICATOR ABILITY FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Abstract. The analysis developed in this study has the objective of investigating the leading indicator properties of narrow money demand for the evolution of the economic activity. The variables used were the growth rate of M1 and of GDP and the analysis covers the period The results of the performed analyses show indicator abilities only for the innovations of M1 (represented by the cyclical component) and only for the direction of GDP s evolution (revealed by the binomial probit models) and not for the amplitude of its change (tested by multinomial probit models). Key words: leading indicators, probit, GDP, M1. Clasificarea JEL : E51, E32 Profesor univ. dr. Ion PURCARU Profesor univ. Gabriela BEGANU Profesor univ. dr. Ion DOBRE Profesor univ. dr. Ion VERBONCU Drd. Gabriela IONESCU D.G.F.P. Argeş CONSIDERAłII ASUPRA CONCEPTULUI DE BIODIVERSITATE CONSIDERATIONS ON THE BIODIVERSITY CONCEPT Abstract. Some general considerations on the biodiversity concept, its mathematical measuring indicators and its extraordinary significance for the global humanity existence are presented in this paper. Key words: diversity,biological diversity, biodiversity,diversity indicators, ecology, ecosystem. MSC 2000: 62P10, 62P12, 62P20, 62P25, 91B82, 94A17

3 Drd. Maria Livia ŞTEFĂNESCU Universitatea din Bucureşti FOLOSIREA REłELELOR SOCIALE DE CĂTRE TINERI ÎN PROCESUL DE INFORMARE ŞI COMUNICARE THE USE OF THE SOCIAL NETWORKS BY THE YOUNG PEOPLE FOR THE INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION PROCESS Abstract. The special importance given in our days to the social and economic networks is very known. The present paper analyses how much the young people knows this facility and operates with the social networks. We applied suitable statistical tests to validate possible significant differences between some subgroups of students which activate in the social networks. Key words : social and economic networks, rate of communication, sample, statistical tests, sociological investigation. Clasificarea JEL: A2, C12, C45, I2. Drd.Gabriela BUCULEI Dr. Mihaela GRUIESCU ESTIMAREA RISCULUI OPERAłIONAL ŞI CALCULAREA CERINłELOR MINIME DE CAPITAL REGLEMENTAT ÎN ACTIVITATEA BANCARĂ THE ESTIMATION OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK AND THE CALCULATION OF THE MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS RULED IN THE BANKING ACTIVITY Abstract. One of the main goals of bank management is to administrate the operational risk as efficient as possible, so that the estimated capital requirements, established as risk provisions to cover all the potential losses that may arise. For this, the risk manager must cover a number of stages, as follow: the identification of the operational risk events, tracking and collection of data at an internal and external level as well, its measurement and its integration in the management process. A special importance in creating a coherent framework for managing operational events is represented by the constitution and the development of an internal and external database, where we can find data stored for larger periods of time and which can be a basic tool in the operational risk modeling activity. Keywords: operational risk, minimum capital requirements, operational event, loss, estimation, type of activity, internal and external databases, commissions for operational risk. Clasificarea JEL: C46, G32

4 Profesor univ. dr. Mihai Daniel ROMAN Catedra de Cibernetică Economică Student Daniela COJOCARU LICITAłII PE INTERNET: EFICIENłĂ ŞI ATRACTIVITATE INTERNET AUCTIONS: EFFICIENCY AND ATTRACTIVENESS Abstract. Auctions have been used as a mechanism for negotiating the price for goods whose value is difficult to establish, as rare goods, unusual goods, or objects of art. In the present study we will examine the mechanism of Internet auctions on e-bay site. Were studied Romanian auctions for stamps (issued between 1880 and 1980) on e-bay that took place between February 10 and March 10, Analyzes indicate that the price depends positively on bidders number and minimum bid price and negatively on reserved price, stamps defects and sellers negative feedback. Also, the number of bidders is negatively influenced by low bid, the existence of a reserved price, the existence of defects and negative feed-back and positively influenced by the catalog value and general feedback. Key words: auctions, ebay, internet, buyer behavior, stamps. Clasificarea JEL: C51, C72, D44 Drd. Mircea POENARU Allianz Tiriac Asigurări S.A. SIMULAREA STRATEGIILOR DE DEZVOLTARE ALE UNUI SISTEM. APLICAłIE ÎN CAZUL INTEGRĂRII VERTICALE PENTRU A MONOPOLIZA O ALTĂ INDUSTRIE THE SIMULATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES OF A SYSTEM. APPLICATION FOR THE CASE OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION IN ORDER TO MONOPOLIZE AN INDUSTRY Abstract. This work aims to present a study of analysis of the case in which an input monopolist provider can increase his profit by vertically integrating in order to monopolize the manufacturing industry. We compare the monopoly of the input M and the status of the competitive market. We approach the case of the vertically integrated firms, nonintegrated respectively, in the event of employing a production function with fixed proportions and with variable proportions respectively. In relation with the analyzed hypothesis, we determine when it is useful for the monopolist provider of M to vertically integrate and to take over the firm downstream. We analyze the general validity of the results of this survey and if it s possible that the consumer s surplus and his wealth to increase if the monopolist vertically integrates in order to extend his monopolistic power. Key words: marginal cost, marginal income, fixed/variable proportions, monopoly, vertical (non)integration, competitive markets, profit.

5 Clasificarea JEL: D42, L12 Profesor univ. dr. Maria Viorica ŞTEFĂNESCU Profesor univ. dr. Niculae MIHĂIłĂ Lector univ. dr. Florentin ŞERBAN Lector univ. drd. Silvia DEDU ALGORITMI DE OPTIMIZARE ÎN MANAGEMENT UTILIZÂND TEHNICI DE CLASIFICARE OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS IN MANAGEMENT USING CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUES Abstract. In this paper, it is presented an original method for building a portfolio which can characterize the evolution of Bucharest Stock Exchange. We will use data concerning both fundamental analysis and technical analysis of shares in order to build the portfolio. We will present the principles used to construct the portfolio, we will describe the method of building the portfolio and we will study the evolution of the portfolio during a period of time. In fact, the method proposed in this paper represents an alternative of BET index, whose acquisition is quite expensive. Keywords: optimization, management, classification, portfolio. Clasificarea JEL : G11, C63, C81 Dr. Stefan V. STEFĂNESCU Universitatea din Bucureşti ESTIMAREA PERCEPłIEI INDIVIDUALE A UNOR INDICATORI SOCIO- ECONOMICI PENTRU DIFERITE CATEGORII DE VÂRSTĂ THE INDIVIDUAL PERCEPTION OF SOME SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS ESTIMATED FOR DIFFERENT AGE INTERVALS Abstract. There were taken into consideration 14 socio economic and environment indicators. For different age intervals we estimated the perception of the Romanian people regarding the importance of all these indicators. By applying a multidimensional scaling procedure the analyzed variables were represented in an unidimensional space. Finally we classified the socio-economic indices and we determined their variation in time. Keywords : socio-economic and environment indices, individual perception, multidimensional scaling, estimation, age intervals. Clasificarea JEL: C43, C51, C65.

6 Drd. Tache JURUBESCU DINAMICA FORłEI DE MUNCĂ ÎN UNIUNEA EUROPEANĂ LABOR FORCE DYNAMICS IN EUROPEAN UNION Abstract. The paper presents a study of European Union labour market and its dynamics as regard to the European Employment Strategy s objectives. Our analysis starting point is the 1997 Lisbon Strategy, which puts in place a set of objectives to be achieved by the member states by They are monitoring the employment performance of the existing member states and candidates to the membership. Lisbon Strategy has been amended in 2000 and 2005, so that it focuses now on three employment indicators: total employment rate, female employment rate and older workers (between years of age) employment rate. The paper uses data from Eurostat and Romanian NSI (National Statistical Institute) to compare our national trends and achievements with those of all the other member states and the EU targets.. Key words: labour market, performance, indicators, employment rate, unemployment rate. Clasificarea JEL: J21, J23, O52, R23 Profesor univ. dr. Tudorel ANDREI Profesor univ. dr. Stelian STANCU Profesor univ. dr. Bogdan OANCEA Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureşti Profesor univ. dr. Andreea Iluzia IACOB Lector univ. dr. Claudiu HERłELIU FOLOSIREA DATELOR DE TIP PANEL PENTRU CARACTERIZAREA SISTEMULUI PUBLIC DE SĂNĂTATE DIN ROMÂNIA ÎN PROFIL REGIONAL PANEL DATA APPLICATION FOR THE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE ROMANIAN PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM AT REGIONAL LEVEL Abstract. This study presents a series of characteristics of the Romanian public health system. The analysis aims to compare this sector with other public sectors in relation to the evolution of the number of employees and the average wage. A number of indicators which are characterizing this sector of activity are compared for the last two election cycles. Panel data models, respective fixed effects and random effect models, are used to estimate the effects of decentralization on demographic indicators on the eight development regions. Keywords: public health system, decentralization, election cycle, development region, average wage, number of employees, panel data models, the infant mortality rate, the mortality rate. Clasificarea JEL: C33, C50, I1

7 Profesor univ. dr. Zizi GOSCHIN Profesor univ. dr. Daniela LuminiŃa CONSTANTIN Profesor univ. dr. LuminiŃa NICOLESCU Profesor univ. dr. Constantin MITRUł ASPECTE CANTITATIVE ŞI CALITATIVE PRIVIND IMIGRAłIA ÎN ROMÂNIA QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE ISSUES REGARDING THE IMMIGRATION IN ROMANIA Abstract. This study combines considerations on policies and legislation in the field of immigration and asylum applications with the ones regarding the main quantitative characteristics of the immigration flows in Romania in recent years. Key words: immigration, asylum applications, removal of aliens, Romania, European Union. Clasificarea JEL: F22, J61