Best Friends Forever? How the US thinks and feels about Germany. Presented at

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1 Best Friends Forever? How the US thinks and feels about Germany Presented at Berlin, June 25, 2018

2 The Task > Working assumption: Germany has lost relevance in the United States > The "Germany Year USA 2018/2019" undertaken by the German Foreign Office and partners is an effort to counteract this and strengthen ties > Question: What can Germany do, and how can transatlantic institutions help, to improve perceptions of Germany in the US? 2

3 First-ever Perception Value Management (PVM) analysis of Germany Topline findings A mismatch between general public opinion (big data analysis) and expert opinion (survey of transatlantic experts) is low Perception of Germany s performance in the world is strong, but that is not always positive seen as a threatening power Perception on "Character" and "Sympathy" values is low 3

4 The 4 step approach towards suggestions for improvement Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Big Data Analysis Stakeholder Survey Evaluation and Comparison Recommendations > Public perceptions reflected in social, online and print media Twitter analysis over one year (September 1, September 1, 2017) 25 most prominent print and online US media outlets Standard Risk Analysis and specified PVM Analysis > Online stakeholder survey with a select group of 25 transatlantic experts from the policy, business and think tank sectors > Equal parts US/ German citizens > Analysis of findings using Perception Value Management Matrix > Comparison of Big Data Analysis and Stakeholder Survey Results > Recommendations for an advanced communication strategy to help strengthen the perception of Germany in the United States and support transatlantic ties. 4

5 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Twitter Analysis Total volume of tweets: 9,996,563 Related topics Data made available by Twitter Analytics; data refers to total amount of tweets with search criteria 5

6 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Twitter Analysis Sentiment analysis Data made available by Twitter Analytics; data refers to total amount of tweets with search criteria 6

7 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Twitter Analysis Emotion analysis Word clusters Data made available by Twitter Analytics; data refers to total amount of tweets with search criteria 7

8 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Twitter Analysis Most influential Twitter authors Data made available by Twitter Analytics; data refers to total amount of tweets with search criteria 8

9 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Media outlets 1. USA Today 2. The New York Times 3. The Wall Street Journal 4. The Los Angeles Times 5. The Washington Post 6. New York Daily News 7. The San Francisco Chronicle 8. The New York Post 9. The Chicago Tribune 10. The Star-Ledger 11. The San Jose Mercury News, Contra Costa Times and The Oakland Tribune 12. Chicago Sun-Times 13. Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News 14. The Houston Chronicle 15. The Dallas Morning News 16. Seattle Times 17. The Arizona Republic 18. The StarTribune 19. The Denver Post 20. The Plain Dealer 21. The Oregonian 22. The Detroit Free Press 23. The Tampa Tribune 24. Newsday 25. San Diego Union-Tribune 9

10 Step 1: Analysis Big Data Analytics: Perception Value Management Matrix Key tenets > PVM methodology was developed by Prof. Torsten Oltmanns, Roland Berger, and Prof. Ivo Hajnal, University of Innsbruck > Measures general sentiment and attitude towards Germany; > Measures particular perception on "Performance," Sympathy" and "Character"; > Evaluates a large segment of data from print and online media, social media, websites and blogs; > Measures perception criteria based on over 200 selectors; > Focuses on main traditional news and social media outlets in the US; > Allows for a short-term prognosis regarding trends, challenges and potential crisis situations; > Evaluation of results is based on the Perception Value Management Concept; > Results are used to design an integrated communication strategy that will strengthen Germany s perception in the US; > The matrix has been used in corporate analysis but not in "nation-branding" (use of corporate marketing techniques by countries to enhance international reputation) 10

11 Step 1: Analysis Perception Value Triangle 1. Performance (strengthens authority) "Logos" a. Cognition: Is the problem understood? b. Competence: Are the required skills for problem solving available? c. Reflection: Who are responsible leaders/acting parties? 2. Sympathy (builds coalition) "Pathos" a. Commonalities: What are the common points of view? b. Openness: Is there respect and tolerance for other opinions? c. Interaction: Are there opportunities for cooperation and exchange? 3. Character (establishes trust) "Ethos" a. Legibility: Identifying positions and values b. Integrity: Understanding deeper motives c. Consistency: Establishing reliability 11

12 Step 1: Analysis Multiplying Factors for Risk Analysis and PVM Calculation General psychological selectors for Risk and PVM-Analysis Sample Risk Print: Media USA Risk Twitter: Twitter USA PVM Print: Medien USA PVM Twitter: Twitter USA Total Lexicon Factor up to 100% Factor for General Lexicon Total Impact Factor 72% 1,4 8 11,2 52% % ,8%

13 Step 1: Analysis Bad feelings cancel out good feelings. Print and Online Media USA (September 2016 September 2017); Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel" Negative Emotions Anger Sadness Anxiety Positive Emotions

14 Step 1: Analysis Germany is a powerhouse; is that good? Print and Online Media USA (September 2016 September 2017; Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel") Power Implementation Skills Difference Discrepancy

15 Step 1: Analysis Twitter captures strong negative emotions. Texas is harsher than New York. Twitter (September 2016 September 2017; Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel") Sadness Anger Row 1/2: USA total 17/16 Row 3/4: Texas 17/16 Row 5/6: New York 17/16 Anxiety Negative Emotions Positive Emotions

16 Step 1: Analysis Germany is viewed as a power both on Twitter and in news media. Twitter (September 2016 September 2017); Search Criteria: "Germany", "Merkel" Power Implementation Skills Difference Row 1/2: USA total 17/16 Row 3/4: Texas 17/16 Row 5/6: New York 17/16 Discrepancy

17 Step 1: Analysis PVM-Values in journalistic media show a deficit on "sympathy" PVM Analysis Media, online and print -7,00-7,2-5,4 7,2 10,0-9,2 Media 9/16-9/17 7,2 4,5 4,4 9,0 Dangerous Be aware No concern 3,4 1,0 Source: Data: Nina Smidt,

18 Step 1: Analysis PVM-Values on Twitter (USA total) show a more critical image than journalistic media PVM Analysis Twitter USA -8,4-9,1-3,5 3,2 6,7-15,4 Twitter 9/16-9/17 5,2 3,3 5,6 6,3 Dangerous Be aware No concern 4,2-0,7 Source: Data: Nina Smidt,

19 Interim Results Interim Results 1 Translate findings into PVM Analysis Performance value strong, but also seen as threat Character value weak, underdeveloped Sympathy value almost undetectable 19

20 Step 2: Stakeholder Survey Stakeholder Survey: Germany and Merkel are perceived positively Strengths 20

21 Step 2: Stakeholder Survey but problems are apparent Weaknesses 21

22 Step 2: Stakeholder Survey Overall relations are strong, or at least normal Opportunities 22

23 Step 2: Stakeholder Survey but Germany cannot be complacent Threats Source: Data: Nina Smidt,

24 Interim Results Interim Results 2 Mismatch between Big Data Analysis and Stakeholder Survey. There is a mismatch between the big data analysis (representing a wide US audience) and the survey of a select group of transatlantic experts: > Topics that the select group considers important (economy, trade, NATO, EU leadership) are not the ones reflected in big data (Merkel, Trump, Nazi history, far-right parties in Germany) > Big data analysis and survey agree: Germany is strong on "Performance" > However, "Performance" is viewed positively by survey group and negatively by wider US population > "Sympathy" related values do not occur at all in big data analysis: Friendship, Fun, Sports, Music, Culture > Mismatch becomes even more apparent in the comparison of New York as a blue state and Texas as a red state 24

25 Step 3: Evaluation and Comparison PVM Matrix SWOT Analysis Strengths > Germany perceived as strong in performance Weaknesses > Germany is weak in character and sympathy SWOT > Turn performance perception into a positive connotation Opportunities > Strong performance viewed as threatening Threats 25

26 Step 3: Evaluation and Comparison Perception of Germany in the US shows need for action. > Perception of Germany in US media is relatively negative and often reflects anger > Performance orientation is strong, seen as positive in the context of a strong economy > However, Germany is viewed as a powerhouse, not necessarily in a positive way > Perceptions expressed on Twitter reflect those in general media > Perceptions more negative in conservative states (e.g. Texas) vs. liberal (e.g. New York) 26

27 Step 4: Recommendations Challenges > Perception beats performance What people believe or feel about a brand carries more weight than its long-term performance > Opinion beats factual reasoning People are looking for confirmation of their deeply held views, tied to their social and cultural identity The answer: an advanced communication strategy to counteract these challenges and strengthen the perception of Germany in the US 27

28 Where do we go from here? > Working assumption: Germany has lost relevance in the United States > Question: What can Germany do, and how transatlantic institutions help, to improve perceptions of Germany in the US? > Mismatch between Big Data Analytics and Stakeholder Survey > Strong on "Performance", but that is not always good > Weak on "Sympathy" and "Character" > Need to re-think communication strategy for Germany > Along the lines of "Performance Plus" 28

29 Contact Details Copyright Smidt, Dr. Nina Dr. Nina Smidt is President of American Friends of Bucerius AmCham Germany events(at)amcham.de (Office Frankfurt) (Office Berlin) 29