DAirNet /Danube Region Air Transport Network Strategy - phase 1

Transcription

1 Technical Assistance for DAirNet /Danube Region Air Transport Network Strategy - phase 1 EU Strategy for the Danube Region (EUSDR) Technical Assistance Facility 2013/2014 Priority Area 1b: Rail, Road and Air Transport Roland Hackl (ic) / Workshop@DRTD, 22 nd Oct 2014

2 TOC I. TAF set-up and project management II. Project concept & rationale III. Open questions & issues

3 I DAIRNET TAF SETUP & PROJECT MANAGEMENT

4 DairNet TAF Setup (1) Applicant and partners (project owner): University of Belgrade - Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO) Ministrstvo za infrastrukturo in prostor / Ministry of Infrastructure and Spatial planning (Slovenia) Ministarstvo saobraćaja Republike Srbije / Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Serbia (Serbia) TAF Consultant: ic consulenten Ziviltechniker GesmbH CES clean energy solutions GesmbH

5 DairNet TAF Setup (2)

6 TAF Work Approach in general Phases Idea Preparation Submission Study Implementation Project ownership Direct collaboration on technical level Iterative circulation Meetings Project partnership Limits of the TAF support

7 Suggested management structure (1) for the DAirNet project (i.e. after completing the TAF stage)

8 Suggested management structure (2) (some clarifications on key elements; non-exhaustive list) Project Management to handle daily business of running the DAirNet project, coordination, controlling, etc. consists of lead partner resources (in most cases) Advisory Board (AB) to include industry feed-back/perspectives/needs consists of industry actors, policy makers and other selected stakeholders as well as representative(s) of DRS-PA1b, selected key stakeholders from partner countries...project interface to real-world needs Strategic Management Board (SMB) to implement project work and to make major operational decisions made up of Project Manager (PM representative of the Lead Partner), Financial Manager (FM), Communication Manager (CM), WP leaders and the national project coordinators of the partner organizations (PPC)

9 II DAIRNET PROJECT CONCEPT & RATIONALE

10 DAirNet key project elements & workflow status quo analysis transport market study action plans impact analysis

11 DAirNet key project elements & workflow status quo analysis transport market study action plans impact analysis

12 key element 1: Status Quo Analysis why? to prove that the DR air network is underdeveloped to evidence in what regard it is underdeveloped and who is affected to show the (quantitative) extent of the underdevelopment i.e. to make the nature of this underdevelopment more tangible and to turn these findings into numbers as much as possible thus to draw a comprehensive picture of the current situation broken down into policy-relevant dimensions

13 key element 1: Status Quo Analysis underdevelopment... could mean different things; e.g. insufficient nr. of intra-/extra regional connections insufficient connection frequencies lack of modal integration (airports & other transport modes) insufficient nr. and/or allocation of airports locations (network density) inefficient routing / connectivity issues / i.e. excessive travel times lack of demand / excess supply etc., etc.

14 key element 1: Status Quo Analysis how? by elaborating a multi-dimensional analysis of the status quo, namely for infrastructure organization & fleets legal/institutional framework transport market i.e. to create layers of analysis that can be directly addressed at later stages (action plans, etc.) and thus keep the project concept consistent

15 DAirNet key project elements & workflow status quo analysis transport market study action plans impact analysis

16 key element 2: Transport Market Study why? to understand and specify current transport demand to make plausible demand projections to provide a sound breakdown of transport demand into relevant categories to consistently incorporate a set of relevant development scenarios i.e. to provide the basis for the DAirNet action plans to identify gaps between transport supply and demand to identify untapped potentials (however specified) and - most importantly - to justify the proposed actions

17 key element 2: Transport Market Study how? collecting/processing data on current transport demand define meaningful scenarios including demandrelevant parameters (e.g. economic development, modal choice, etc.) making sound and well-documented assumptions on supply-demand dependencies i.e. to quantify and break down current and future demand - sensitive to a set of relevant scenarios

18 DAirNet key project elements & workflow status quo analysis transport market study action plans impact analysis

19 key element 3: Action Plans why? to provide an exhaustive list of measures to be taken in order to improve air transport in the DR to structure measure implementation both in terms of time and responsibilities (actors) to bundle and balance individual measures in order to find optimum implementation strategies to include all stakeholders in a well-organized fashion i.e. to best organize a potentially large number of individual measures into coherent and concerted actions

20 key element 3: Action Plans how? the elaboration of action plans is tightly linked to the results of status quo analysis and transport market study measures are organized/bundled horizontally into action layers (Consultants suggestion: infrastructure, organization & fleet, legal/institutional) measures are organized/bundled vertically into time layers (e.g. short-/mid- /long term actions) following a logical sequence of steps to be taken i.e. actions are defined in such a way that they (1) address clearly identified transport issues and/or supply-demand gaps (2) are feasible for the respective stakeholders/actors (3) fully support overall (DR / EU / etc.; e.g. cohesion...) objectives

21 key element 3: Action Plans how? (cont d) horizontal action layers organization& fleets infrastructure legal / institutional concerted action in the Danube Region

22 key element 3: Action Plans how? (cont d) the DAirNet action plan resembles an holistic and integrated approach in that it fully accounts (1) for both desired and unwanted effects actions might have (locational upgrading of urban areas, competitiveness, sustainability etc., but also external migration, movement of labour, or negative impacts on real estate markets due to externalities etc.) on other sectors and (2) for individual measures affecting each other (e.g. modal split changes due to new connections, under-utilization of other transport modes, etc.) all actions included in the action plan need to be based on objective, unbiased findings and data a feedback loop with the following project key element 4 impact analysis needs to be established in order to weight potential actions against each other and find an optimum (Pareto or other) implementation strategy

23 DAirNet key project elements & workflow status quo analysis transport market study action plans impact analysis

24 key element 4: Impact Analysis why? to ex ante assess the impacts of the DAirNet action plans in policy-relevant areas and dimensions (i.e. a knowledge-based approach rather than trial & error ) thus, to mitigate risks of false investment to confirm the measures included in the action plans to demonstrate and elaborate macro-economic benefits of the implementation of actions (including their contribution to DR/ EU objectives) to fine-tune / re-formulate the action plans based on the impact analyses results (feedback loop)

25 key element 4: Impact Analysis how? establishing an exhaustive list of individual action alternatives to achieve the DAirNet objectives (i.e. 1 st draft iteration of action plan) elaborating a series of cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) for individual measures/actions expressing the desirability of the respective action in quantitative terms linking / integrating the aforementioned scenarios into the CBAs working out clear-cut definitions of individual actions ( projects ) and affected stakeholder groups ( whose costs and benefits count? )

26 key element 4: Impact Analysis how? (cont d); issues while it is relatively easy to assign money values to the cost items intuition widely fails when attempting to do so for the benefits therefore some advanced techniques and approaches need to be adopted in order to assign money values to benefits assessing potential benefits clearly calls for simulating/forecasting some of the benefit categories (in particular non-revenue ones) related to DAirNet s Action Plan in order to include them into the CBAs transport demand modelling (including direct and indirect network effects) modelling macroeconomic effects (such as structural impacts on regional economic performance and employment, and consequently impacts on catching-up processes and cohesion)

27 key element 4: Impact Analysis how? (cont d); modelling macroeconomic benefits impacts on the regional (or national) economy, labour market and socioeconomic conditions can be simulated by understanding accessibility as a production factor just as real capital or workforce this concept is intuitively comprehensible as in today s globalized economy with a high degree of division of labour it would be very difficult to produce goods or services without exchanging cargo or passengers with other locations (...i.e. a concept very different to self-sustaining farms centuries ago) as DAirNet aims at generally improving accessibility it will provide better conditions for production for all locations enjoying accessibility upgrades hence these locations will ceteris paribus- yield e.g. higher GDP/capita or employment rates (assuming modest growth in labour productivity)

28 III OPEN QUESTIONS & ISSUES

29 open questions to the project owner: unlike rail and road transport, air transport is highly based on commercial markets and profit seeking: how do we handle the (likely) case that the costs of running a new air connection can not be fully covered by its (direct) monetary revenues? likewise: benefits accruing to the general public (e.g. upgrading of urban areas, positive structural economic effects, etc.) cannot be directly forwarded to the providers of the service? i.e. there might be mismatches in terms of who will enjoy costs and benefits related to new services (possibly resulting in financial gaps) is there any examples that illustrate the interplay between private and public actors required when pursuing DAirNet s objectives? questions relating to DAirNet s base hypothesis: is DAirNet based on the concept that the provision of additional new air connections will automatically create additional transport demand? if yes, what actually prevents the current players in this field (air carriers) to provide new connections? (this is crucial, since here s exactly where DAirNet needs to set off)

30 open questions to the project owner (cont d): who will be the primary users of the DAirNet study s results? who will be in charge of implementing it? how is this going to be handled? what s the current state regarding the project partnership? what will be the roles of each project partner?

31 Thank you!