Social Mobility in the 20 th Century

Transcription

1 Social Mobility in the 20 th Century

2 Florian R. Hertel Social Mobility in the 20 th Century Class Mobility and Occupational Change in the United States and Germany

3 Florian R. Hertel Florence, Italy Dissertation Universität Bremen, Fachbereich 8 Sozialwissenschaften, 2015 ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: Springer VS Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer VS imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH

4 Acknowledgements This study is based on my PhD thesis that I wrote at the University Bremen between 2010 and As such, it owes a great deal to my two mentors, colleagues and friends Olaf Groh-Samberg and Fabian Pfeffer. In their respective ways, Olaf and Fabian took a great part in my formation as a sociologist and very practically helped me write this book by relentlessly diverting my attention to other interesting research questions around the study of social inequality. By doing so, they taught me, among other things, scientific argumentation, statistical analyses and academic writing. In its best moments this book is as much theirs as my own. This book, of course, was not solely conceived in the lofty towers of academia but in the myriad people whom I have been fortunate to meet over the last years. Alex, Anne, Björn, Irene, Jack, Lisa, Maike, Nadine, Nate, Nora, Till, Ossi and Anup were tremendously important in helping me to think and not think about social mobility. Similarly important was my family. Elisabeth, Rolf, Christine, Johannes, Jakob, Anna, Martin, Katja, Philippa, Sophie and Lioba, I can only thank you for having been present, always. My partner Alice has carried the greatest weight of all, not only because she discussed this work relentlessly, but also because she recklessly supported me on every step of the way. She makes this world a better place for me in good times and bad. I dedicate this book to the 186,472 men and women, young and old and of every class, race and ethnicity, who allowed me to write it by disclosing to strangers very intimate information about their family origins and their current lives. I hope the pages to come are worthy of their gift through the formulation of a truthful account of their collective mobility experiences and their successes and failures in reaching what they might have dreamt for their lives. Florence, Spring 2016

5 Content 1 Introduction Social change and social mobility Societal change and the occupational structure Social mobility in industrial and post-industrial societies Same, same but different? Class and intergenerational mobility in contemporary societies Gradational concepts of social inequality Micro-classes and occupational class inequalities Employment relations and social class: the EGP scheme Exploitation and social class: Wright s class scheme Social class and work logics: the Oesch scheme Class and the division of labor: the Esping-Andersen scheme The derivation of the IPICS class scheme Horizontal differentiation according to the work logic Vertical differentiation according to employment relations Gender, race and class Social mobility and IPICS Horizontal and vertical stratification of occupational positions Testing the validity of the IPICS classes Horizontal differences between occupations Vertical differences between occupations Datasets, Operationalization and conceptual issues Employed datasets for the analysis of social mobility Occupational classifications and IPICS Sample and cohort design Empirical description of industrial and post-industrial classes Socio-demographic composition Class and educational assets Class and economic assets Class profiles Class and structural change Absolute Mobility in Germany over the 20 th century Changing distributions of education, origin and social class Aggregated mobility patterns Changing aggregated absolute mobility patterns

6 8 8.4 The evolution of segment-specific outflow mobility patterns Summary Absolute mobility in the U.S. over the 20 th century Changing distributions of education, origin and social class Aggregated mobility patterns Changing aggregated absolute mobility patterns The evolution of segment-specific outflow mobility patterns Summary Relative mobility in Germany and the U.S A model of social fluidity for post-industrial societies Country-specific adaptations: Germany Country-specific adaptations: United States Social fluidity in Germany Barriers and bridges: Social fluidity in Germany Comparing the IPICS and EGP classes directly: the German case Changing social fluidity across cohorts Summary Social fluidity in the United States of America Barriers and bridges: Social fluidity in the United States Comparing the IPICS and EGP classes directly: the American case Changing social fluidity across cohorts Summary Social mobility in two post-industrial societies Comparing social fluidity levels between the U.S. and Germany Shortcomings and future work References Online appendix The differential treatment of self-employed in the IPICS scheme Weighting of the American data Class and family Methodological strategy for the analysis of social fluidity

7 Figures Figure 1: GDP per capita growth rates in G7 countries, 1820 to Figure 2: Women s employment share in selected G7 countries Figure 3: Part-time employment in selected G7 countries, Figure 4: Unemployment rate in Germany and the U.S., Fgure 5: Government expenditure and educational attainment Figure 6: Income inequality in the U.S. and Germany, Figure 7: Mobility triangle Figure 8: EGP classes and employment relations, status and sector Figure 9: Social mobility processes in the rational action paradigm Figure 10: Fringe benefits across IPICS classes in the U.S., Figure 11: Unemployment-age profiles by class, Germany Figure 12: Unemployment-age profiles by class, United States Figure 13: Unemployment risk in Germany and the U.S. in Figure 14: %-wealthy (>$10,000) and mean HH-worth by class in Figure 15: Class distribution in Germany and the United States Figure 16: Relative evolution of IPICS classes over time in the U.S Figure 17: Relative evolution of IPICS classes over time in Germany Figure 18: Origin class distribution of German men and women by cohort. 188 Figure 19: Educational distribution of German men and women by cohort. 190 Figure 20: Destination class distribution of Germans by cohort Figure 21: Inflow mobility of German men and women Figure 22: Outflow mobility of German men and women Figure 23: Total mobility rates in East and West Germany Figure 24: Outflow rates by social origin for German men and women Figure 25: Origin class distribution of men and women, U.S Figure 26: Educational distribution of men and women, U.S Figure 27: Destination class distribution of Americans by cohort Figure 28: Inflow mobility of American men and women Figure 29: Outflow mobility of American men and women Figure 30: Total mobility rates of in the United States Figure 31: Regional differences in outflow mobility in the United States Figure 32: Total mobility rates by race and ethnicity in the United States Figure 33: Outflow rates by social origin for men and women, U.S Figure 34: Distribution of IPICS classes across EGP classes, Germany Figure 35: UD parameters for change in social fluidity in Germany

8 10 Figure 36: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in Germany, men Figure 37: Best model 21 for changing fluidity in Germany, women Figure 38: Fluidity Differences by ancestry in the United States Figure 39: Distribution of IPICS classes across EGP classes, U.S Figure 40: UD parameters for change in social fluidity, United States Figure 41: UD model for fluidity change by ancestry for men, US Figure 42: UD model for fluidity change by ancestry for women, US Figure 43: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in the U.S., men Figure 44: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in the U.S., white men Figure 45: Best model 21 for changing fluidity in the U.S., women Figure 46: Social Change and social mobility chances Figure 47: Strength of mobility chances in Germany and the U.S Figure 48: Comparing fluidity trends across countries within genders Figures online appendix Figure A. 1: Matrices for mobility models for 8 8 contingency tables Figure A. 2: Parameter matrices for selected topological models Figure A. 3: Modelling cohort change by race for men, United States Figure A. 4: Modelling cohort change by race for women, United States

9 Tables Table 1: Potential relation of social change and intergenerational mobility 48 Table 2: Class locations and assets in Wright s class scheme Table 3: Class differentiation according to Oesch s class scheme Table 4: The Esping-Andersen classes Table 5: Horizontal differentiation in the IPICS scheme Table 6: Industrial and post-industrial class scheme (IPICS) Table 7: Mobility preferences by social origins Table 8: Expectations about horizontal class differences Table 9: Expectations about vertical class differences Table 10: Characteristics indicating horizontal differences, Germany Table 11: Characteristics indicating horizontal differences, U.S Table 12: Evidence for horizontal differences Table 13: Characteristics indicating vertical differences, Germany Table 14: Characteristics indicating vertical differences, U.S Table 15: Evidence for vertical class differences Table 16: Occupational coding schemes used for class assignment Table 17: Coding schemes and the intergenerational association Table 18: Socio-demographic characteristics by IPICS classes, Germany. 160 Table 19: Socio-demographic characteristics by IPICS classes, U.S.A Table 20: Educational attainment within IPICS classes, Germany Table 21: Educational attainment within IPICS classes, United States Table 22: Net monthly earnings position and quintiles, Germany Table 23: Net monthly earnings position and quintiles, United States Table 24: Net Household income position and quintiles, Germany Table 25: Net Household income position and quintiles, U.S Table 26: Characteristics of the German analysis sample Table 27: Schematic presentation of 4 different mobility trajectories Table 28: Ratio of up- to downward mobility by gender and region Table 29: Ratio of long to short-range mobility by gender and region Table 30: Changing mobility between first and last cohort (men/women). 211 Table 31: Characteristics of the American analysis sample Table 32: %-point differences between regional and aver. mobility rates Table 33: DI for men (lower triangle) and women (upper triangle) Table 34: Ratio of up- to downward mobility by gender and ancestry Table 35: Ratio of long to short-range mobility, gender and ancestry

10 12 Table 36: Changing mobility between first and last cohort (men/women). 250 Table 37: Effect matrices for inheritance parameters Table 38: Effect matrices for hierarchy parameters Table 39: Effect matrices for affinity parameters Table 40: Effect matrix for the gender parameter Table 41: Effect matrices for German-specific fit parameters Table 42: Effect matrices for U.S.-specific fit parameters Table 43: Barriers and channels shaping social fluidity in Germany Table 44: The general pattern of social fluidity in Germany Table 45: Parameter estimates of mobility channels and barriers Table 46: Cell parameters for men (upper value) and women (lower) Table 47: Differences between cell parameters between segments Table 48: Comparing EGP and IPICS, Germany Table 49: Modeling of cohort change in social fluidity in Germany Table 50: Changing mobility barriers and channels, German men Table 51: Changing mobility barriers and channels, German women Table 52: Barriers and channels shaping social fluidity in the U.S Table 53: The general pattern of social fluidity in the United States Table 54: Parameter estimates of mobility channels and barriers Table 55: Cell parameters for men (upper value) and women (lower) Table 56: Differences between cell parameters between segments Table 57: Comparing EGP and IPICS, United States Table 58: Modeling of cohort change in social fluidity in the U.S Table 59: Changing mobility barriers and channels, American men Table 60: Changing mobility barriers and channels, American women Table 61: Models for country differences in social fluidity Tables online appendix Table A. 1: Self-employed incomes in the U.S. and Germany Table A. 2: Row-% in the ODC table, German men Table A. 3: Row-% in the ODC table, German women Table A. 4: Row-% in the ODC table, Amercian men Table A. 5: Row-% in the ODC table, American women Table A. 6: Ratio of cross-class HH to average earnings of men Table A. 7: Survey, region and migration background effect, Germany