NERC Project. Increase Analytical Capabilities in the Probabilistic Domain

Transcription

1 NERC Project Increase Analytical Capabilities in the Probabilistic Domain Noha Abdel-Karim, PhD. Senior Engineer for Reliability Assessment IEEE-LOLE Working Group Meeting July 21-22, 2016

2 About NERC International regulatory authority for electric reliability in North America Develops and enforces reliability standards Analyzes system outages, near-misses and risks and recommends improved practices Accountable as electric reliability organization (ERO) to regulators in the United States (FERC) and Canada (provincial governments) Assesses current and future risks to reliability 2

3 About NERC 3

4 About NERC 4

5 About NERC July 20, 2016 NERC 10 th anniversary of being certified as the Electric Reliability Organization by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 5

6 NERC Reliability Assessment Peak demand forecasts Resource adequacy Transmission adequacy Key issues - emerging trends Technical challenges Evolving market practices System elements/dynamics Potential legislation/regulation Regional self-assessment Ad-hoc special Assessments 6

7 NERC Planning Committee Subgroup Organizational Chart 7

8 2015 LTRA Key Findings Reserve Margins in all Assessment Areas appear sufficient but continue to trend downward A changing resource mix requires additional measures and approaches for assessing future reliability Operators and planners face uncertainty with increased levels of distributed energy resources and new technologies NERC continues its reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan and other environmental rules 8

9 2015 LTRA Key Findings NERC continues its reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan and other environmental rules Early Retirement of Nuclear Plants Energy Storage Regional/Interconnection-Wide Modeling Increasing Nameplate Capacity of Nonsynchronous Generation Compared to Synchronous Generation 9

10 Probabilistic Assessment NERC Strategic Goals Increased NERC Analytical Capabilities In-house software capabilities Ad-hock special assessments Improve NERC Probabilistic Assessments Extend the LTRA data with probabilistic reliability measures on all 20 Assessment Areas for two of the 10 years of the LTRA. Improve Probabilistic Modeling NERC identified several considerations and lessons learned that should be evaluated before proceeding with additional probabilistic assessments. 10

11 Uncertainty Areas Uncertainties Impacting Resource Adequacy Planning Regulatory Policies & Economic Factors New technologies on transmission and distribution sides Unexpected event or behavior - Extreme Weather Generation Resource Uncertainties future forecast, generation output (for variable generation), water availability for hydro, EFOR, ramping Transmission Uncertainties future forecast, determination of transmission paths, time required to build transmission, component outages Fuel Uncertainties Price/delivery system based Demand Uncertainties future load forecast, Demand Side Management (DSM)/Distributed Resources (DR) program impacts, and distributed generation impacts 11

12 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Effort PC Approved GTRPMTF Methodology and Metrics Report in September OBJECTIVE: To provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products that could be used to supplement the NERC s long-term reliability assessments. Pilot Assessment Report 2011 ProbA Reports 2012 & 2014 Annual EUE Annual LOLH EUE as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE). ProbA Report 2014 Annual EUE, Annual LOLH, and EUE as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE). Scenario Modeling: calculate the LOLH and EUE if load were interrupted to maintain full operating reserves. 12

13 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Effort Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Force (PAITF) Formed May 2015 Objective: Support the identification of improvement opportunities for NERC s Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the complementary probabilistic analysis. Main deliverables: Summary and Recommendations Report, December 2015 Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document Draft, July 2016 Kickoff NERC 2016 ProbA March, 2016 Including Enhancements and Recommendations by PAITF Integration of Probabilistic Assessment into NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment More exposure to the importance of ProbA 13

14 Background: Prepare Probabilistic Assessment Guidelines document to Identify modeling requirements and recommendations, and to support Regional scenarios to study emerging risks to reliability. Core Probabilistic Assessment Continuation of the individual area probability assessments. Modeling consistency will be improved by following a Probabilistic Assessment Guidelines document. NERC-Regional Coordinated Special Assessment Expand the probabilistic study efforts with NERC and the Regions leading the development and evaluation efforts of additional scenario studies on reliability concerns related to the BPS higher risk areas identified in the LTRA. 14 Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Force

15 ProbA Technical Guideline Document Core Probabilistic Assessment Metric Reporting Areas Metrics Descriptions Metric Calculations Probabilistic Study Reporting o Study Frequency and Study Years Simulation software Coordinated NERC Regional Special Assessment Special Assessment Determination Roles and Responsibilities Modeling Requirements and Scope of Work General Modeling Assumptions Load Modeling Capacity Modeling Emergency Operating Procedures Transmission Modeling Sensitivity and Scenario Modeling Data Preparation and Collection 15

16 ProbA Technical Guideline Document Objectives Identify practices, requirements and recommendations needed to perform high-quality probabilistic resource adequacy assessments. Complement reserve margin analyses in NERC s Long-Term Reliability Assessments by producing enhanced resource adequacy metrics and modeling approaches. Provide NERC and policy makers with far greater insight, understanding, and the perspectives on BPS reliability. Support regional scenarios to study reliability issues identified in the Long-Term Reliability Assessment. 16

17 ProbA Technical Guidelines Enhancements Summary NERC to develop and maintain documentation describing the establishment of Assessment Areas. NERC within the RAS to evaluate the need for a ProbA Working Group Regions and Assessment Areas need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy measures in their metrics calculations 4 Regions and Assessment Areas need to seasonal variations in their load modeling incorporate 17

18 ProbA Technical Guideline Document Enhancements Summary 5 6 Regions and Assessment Areas need to incorporate seasonal variations in their modeling of resource outages Assessment Areas need to coordinate with neighboring areas to determine the appropriate amount of capacity transfers 18

19 ProbA Technical Guideline Document Probabilistic Metrics Annual LOLH Monthly LOLH Annual EUE, both actual and normalized Monthly EUE, both actual and normalized Probabilistic Study Frequency and Study Years With inputs from the RAS, RAS-ProbA, PAITF and ERO-RAPA Probabilistic assessment is on a biennial basis Assessment Areas study both year 2 and 4 of the Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA). Year 2 reporting is to track and trend resource adequacy measures assessment to assessment. 19

20 ProbA Technical Guideline Document Sensitivity Modeling Assess the impact of a change in an input (either load, transmission or resource-related) on resource adequacy metrics. The runs are performed by changing one input at-a-time in order to isolate the potential impact of each input. Ideally, the change in each input should be accompanied by an associated probability. The sensitivity modeling should be addressed within the Core Probabilistic Assessment framework. Scenario Modeling Assess the impact of changes in multiples inputs (either load, transmission or resource-related) on resource adequacy metrics. The runs are performed by changing multiple inputs at the same time Scenarios are likely to be identified in the LTRA or by sensitivity analysis results. The scenario modeling should address the reliability issues identified within the LTRA that impact resource adequacy, within the Special- Coordinated Probabilistic Assessment framework 20

21 ProbA Technical Guideline Document 2016 ProbA Enhancements Monthly Probabilistic Measures Per guidelines, Assessment Areas describe in their narratives the assumptions used to develop ALL modeling categories of their probabilistic studies. 21

22 Future and In Progress Effort Special Assessments Coordinated NERC/NPCC pilot assessment on natural gas pipeline disruptions Technical papers/reports: Variable energy resources (VER) o Diminishing value of solar o High penetrations Impact on RM Ramping issues LOL calculations with increased VER Tools to incorporate transmission modeling into probabilistic assessments 22

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