The Impacts of Digital Technology on Employment

Transcription

1 Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO Economic Policy Directorate The Impacts of Digital Technology on Employment Dominik Hauri Economist, State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Switzerland 11th WAPES WORLD CONGRESS (WWC) 2018 Friday 20 April 2018

2 Agenda 1. Digitalisation what s new? 2. New work paradigms 3. Success factors for mastering the change 4. Summary 2

3 1. DIGITALISATION WHAT S NEW? 3

4 At the dawn of the 4th industrial revolution 4

5 Are our jobs disappearing?

6 Constant structural transformation Switzerland Number of people employed (in thousands, right axis) Proportion of total people employed in sector (in %, left axis) 80% 70% Total Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector 8,000 7,000 60% 6,000 50% 5,000 40% 4,000 30% 3,000 20% 2,000 10% 1,000 0%

7 Skills-driven growth in employment Employment trend, (2nd quarter), in thousands Managers Academic professions Technicians and associate professionals High-skilled +940,000 Clerks and related occupations -186 Service workers and sales workers Skilled agricultural workers and forestry workers Medium-skilled -114,000 Craft and related trade workers -113 Plant and machinery operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Unskilled +55,000 TOTAL Source: FSO/SLFS, special analysis by SECO 7

8 Increase in non-routine tasks 35% 30% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Non-routine, analytical Non-routine, interactive Routine, cognitive Routine, manual Non-routine, manual Non-routine, service Source: FSO/SLFS, JOBSTAT survey, Rütter Soceco 8

9 2. NEW WORK PARADIGMS 9

10 More flexibility in working arrangements Location Time Operations 10

11 Rise of precarious employment relationships? On-call work......fixed-term contracts......sole practitioner......at low wages? 11

12 1,9% 2,1% 2,5% 8,0% 7,7% 7,2% 6,4% 5,6% 5,1% 6,5% 7,2% 7,6% 83,1% 83,3% 84,4% Significance of new work paradigms Proportion of workforce by form of employment % 80% 70% % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Employees in an employment relationship Sole practitioners Notes: (1) most current figure 2016 annual average instead of 2nd quarter 2017, (2) subcomponents of employees in the employment relationship Source: FSO/SLFS, special analysis by SECO Fixed-term employment (< 6 months) (2) On-call work (1), (2) Employed individuals with several employers (2) 12

13 Complex distinction between selfemployed and employed Characteristics of employed activity: Tied to the business Part of a remote hierarchy Directed by others and bound by instructions Supervision No specific business risk Other... Characteristics of selfemployed activity: Substantial investments off one s own back Own business premises Freedom to organise working time Hiring of employees Bear business risk Acting for several individuals in own name and on own account Other... 13

14 3. SUCCESS FACTORS FOR MASTERING THE CHANGE 14

15 Successful change is based on several pillars Flexible labour market Pro-active labour market policy Target-oriented social security system Stable environment: Monetary and fiscal policies Functioning social partnership Seize opportunities, minimise risks High permeability of the education system Attractive place for employment Leading hub of innovation and research 15

16 Enabling unemployment insurance Educational measures Courses Apprenticeship host companies Vocational training Focus on education Employment measures Programmes for temporary employment Motivational semesters (SEMO) Internships Special measures Training allowances Back-to-work allowances Contributions to commuting costs, including weekly commuters Support in promotion of self-employment Focus on education 16

17 Challenge of flexicurity 4.0 Social security Objectives: Well-conceived social security, focus on the employed with difficult circumstances Cushion adverse shocks Challenge: Does it cover non-standard/new work paradigms? Flexibility Objectives: Quantitative and price flexibility, marketoriented education Enable structural change Challenge: Distinction between the status of selfemployed employed? 17

18 4. SUMMARY 18

19 Swiss Federal Council focus areas Continuing education of low-skilled and especially older employees, targeted increase in basic skills Improved availability of data on new work paradigms and adult skills Monitoring and reporting on relevant trends in the context of digitalisation of the labour market report in five years Analysis and recommendations related to making social insurance more flexible / social security law 19

20 Digitalisation a moving target It is not our job to predict the future, but to be prepared for it. Pericles (circa BC) 20

21 APPENDIX 21

22 Effects on skills requirements Experience with using IT in dayto-day work Capabilities to develop new IT technologies Complementary skills e.g. using software, researching and processing information online e.g. coding, managing networks, developing applications e.g. Problem-solving capabilities, communication, processing complex information 22

23 Capital intensive New work models Cognitive tasks Crowdfunding Digital Professional services Crowdlending Transport Routine tasks Clickwork Trades people Labour intensive Accommodation Physical Personal services Manual tasks 23

24 Drivers of the new digitalisation Digital data and interconnectedness (mobile internet, internet of things, big data etc.) Advances in automation (adaptive manufacturing, 3D printers etc.) Online platforms and new business models 24