Networking Seminar on EGF Mid-term evaluation Brussels 02 March 2016

Transcription

1 Networking Seminar on EGF Mid-term evaluation Brussels 2 March 216

2

3 1. Introduction and welcome Szilárd Tamás Head of Unit, DG EMPL F2

4 1.15 Keynote Presentation: EGF and regional industrial policy Donald Storrie Head of Unit, Eurofound

5 EGF and regional industrial policy Donald Storrie Eurofound

6 The founding of the EMCC and its mandate NICE European Council Meeting 7-9 December 2. in line with the proposals from the social partners, set up a European Monitoring Centre on Change within the Dublin Foundation. Joint opinion of the Social Partners core mission monitoring drivers of change in the European economy. special attention should be given to issues relating to employment and labour markets Managing Change: High level group on economic and social implications of industrial change. European Commission very strongly emphasises restructuring and anticipating and managing structural change in the European economy

7 The EMCC covers most aspects of Restructuring in Europe 1. Restructuring the Big Picture The European Jobs Monitor 2. Restructuring happens every day - The European Restructuring Monitor Events Database 3. Restructuring regulation and support instruments databases and restructuring case studies 4. Restructuring studies 5. EMCC Labour Futures The Future of Manufacturing in Europe

8 The macro perspective Structural Change and Labour Market Adjustment Eurofound s The European Jobs Monitor Average annual growth in Employment Wage quintile Low -> High 8

9 Recent change in the employment structure

10 UPGRADING Employment change by job-wage quintile, EU28

11 Employment change by job-wage quintile, EU28

12 Employment change by job-wage quintile, EU28

13 Employment change by job-wage quintile, EU28

14 From the national to the individual perspective employees in the restructured firm Re-employment rates (or income loss) after job loss OECD comparative with national data (8 MS) Good outcomes in Sweden and Finland. But due to restructuring policy and actions or positive demand and supply factors and other good policies? 14

15 Job finding rates: Source OECD 15

16 Transitions from unemployment to employment as % of stock of unemployed Q2 215 Source Eurostat (LFS) 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5,, 16

17 The limitation of the re-employment rate of the displaced workers as a measure of overall policy success Assisted by the PES and other actors 9% of the redundant workers found a new job within a year of company closing. BUT if no new jobs were actually created (does ALMP create jobs? not many) Then the redundant workers gain was other job seekers loss (and this was facilitated by policy!) Importance of the regional labour market perspective 17

18 Restructuring performance - the regional perspective 18

19 Restructuring job loss in big firms (25+) per 1 employed, 25-13q3 Source: EMCC / ERM

20 Restructuring performance - regional perspective (i) Structural change towards high value added activities (with high employment) How to conceptualise and measure? A Jobs Monitor for regions Overall performance measures growth/capita etc. Benchmarking 2

21 Regional Competitiveness Index 213 Eurostat 21

22 Restructuring performance the regional perspective (ii) Not to compare regions but a single region over time At a specific large company case or sector. 22

23 A more regional perspective for Active Labour Market Policy - ALMP ALMP to a wider target group The directly effected employees Supply firms All others non-employed job seekers in regional labour market 23

24 A more regional perspective for Active Labour Market Policy - ALMP ALMP to a wider target group The directly effected employees Supply firms All others non-employed job seekers in regional labour market Versus Politics Budgets and implementation efficiency 24

25 European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) Annual budget of EUR 15 million Up to 6% of cost of projects to help workers made redundant When 5+ workers are made redundant by a single company Managed and implemented by national or regional authorities. The EGF can co-finance measures such as: - help with looking for a job - careers advice, mentoring, coaching -education, training and re-training -start-up support - mobility/relocation allowances,

26 European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF) Until end of 217, young people not in employment, education or training (NEETs) in regions with high youth unemployment can benefit from EGF support in equal numbers to workers receiving support in those regions. 26

27 Industrial policy? any type of intervention to improve the business environment or to alter the structure of economic activity toward sectors or technologies that are expected to improve economic growth or societal welfare 27

28 Structural and Investment Funds billion - a more strategic and synergetic use of different EU funds for a greater impact on growth and jobs Investing in key growth-generating areas such as innovation, support to SMEs, training and education, social inclusion and the lowcarbon economy. Less focus on building bridges and roads and more on job creation The institutional challenges at regional level are enormous Regional Industrial policy capacity 28

29 Industrial policy in the regions Smart Specialization Research and innovation strategies for smart specialization (Smart specialization) Taking the regional specifics as point of departure 1. Analysis of strengths and weaknesses 2. Mobilizing all relevant regional actors towards an inclusive governance structure 3. Vision with priority setting as a legal pre-condition or ex ante conditionality for using the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in funding period

30 In an EGF context when a region loses a big employer Constructively building on the past or continuing to back a loser? Reconversion: from shipbuilding to offshore sector in Odense Developing the expertise in the automobile sector in Trollhättan region (SAAB) Successful immediate measures only in an overall well established regional and/or national strategy with the necessary regional industrial policy capacity 3

31 European Union Pilot Project The Future of Manufacturing in Europe Delegated to EUROFOUND Global macroeconimic modelling of employment impacts of various scenarios of relevence for manufacturing Monitoring the reshoring of manufacturing back to Europe Employment impact of sci-fi game changing technologies Skills implications - especially youth Small & young firms in global supply chains e.g. born globals Development of industrial policy capacity - esp. in regions.

32 Regional Industry Policy Seminar 1. Trollhättan and Gothenburg, Sweden, 25 th 27 th May 216 Actors and policies when anticipating & managing the employment impact of restructuring in manufacturing Focused mainly on the SAAB case, but also, for example, Bochum, Basque, & Odense How policy implementers can best approach the re-development of a region that has experienced a large plant closure in the manufacturing sector. Regional initiatives, following a plant closure, will be presented by the involved parties. For example, representatives of the regional development agencies, the municipality, education and training institutions and the public employment service. The participants with hands-on knowledge of the policy implementation process. The seminar will be strongly oriented towards discussion, roughly 3 participants.

33 33

34 Extra slides 34

35 European Quality of Government Index 213 Source: Department of Political Science Gothenburg University, Sweden financed by the European Commission 35

36 SMEs per 1 residents Source: Amadeus database 36

37 European Quality of Government Index 213 Source: Department of Political Science Gothenburg University, Sweden financed by the European Commission 37

38 EXTRA SLIDES 38

39 The European Jobs Monitor: methodology Rank jobs Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Occupations (ISCO-8) at 2 digit = 43 Sectors (NACE rev 2) at 2 digit = 88 Jobs = Occupation x sector = 3784 (theoretically) c.9 (CY) to c.27 (DE) (in practice)

40 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Assign to quintiles Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid Occupations (ISCO-8) at 2 digit = 53 Sectors (NACE rev 2) at 2 digit = 88 Jobs = Occupation x sector = 3784 (theoretically) c.9 (CY) to c.27 (DE) (in practice)

41 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Assign to quintiles Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid

42 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Assign to quintiles Each quintile has 2% of employment in start period Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid 211q2 Low Mid-low Mid Mid-high High

43 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Assign to quintiles Show net employment shift for period by quintile Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid 211q2-213q2 Low Mid-low Mid Mid-high High

44 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Assign to quintiles Show net employment shift for period by quintile Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid 211q2-213q2 Low Mid-low Mid Mid-high High Jobs methodology assigns a qualitative dimension to a job (occupation in a sector) is;

45 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Assign to quintiles Show net employment shift for period by quintile Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid 211q2-213q2 Low Mid-low Mid Mid-high High Jobs methodology assigns a qualitative dimension to a job (occupation in a sector) is; Robust 1. Ranking (once) 2. Quintile 3. Change

46 Jobs monitor: methodology Rank jobs Assign to quintiles Show net employment shift for period by quintile Rank Occupation Sector 1 Corporate managers Financial services 2 Other professionals Legal/accounting 3 Life science/health professionals Human health 345 Sales/services elementary occups Construction 346 Plant/machine operators Manufacture: auto 347 Sales/services elementary occups Wholesale retail 823 Personal care workers Residential care 824 Craft workers Manufacture: food 825 Sales/services elementary occups Accommodation Quintiles High paid Mid-high Mid-paid Mid-low Low-paid 211q2-213q2 Low Mid-low Mid Mid-high High Jobs methodology assigns a qualitative dimension to a job (occupation in a sector) is; Robust 1. Ranking (once) 2. Quintile 3. Change and Flexible Wage Years of education Job quality

47 EJM: Long-term trends, overall patterns Sweden UK Ireland Switzerland Spain Germany

48 1.45 EGF Stakeholder Consultations

49 Mid-term evaluation of the EGF

50 Reinforced Focus on Evaluation: "Evaluate first" principle What's new? - Political validation - Agenda planning - Evaluation roadmaps (including 5 criteria) - 4-week feedback period on roadmap - Consultation strategy, including 12 week public consultation - SWD at end of process - Scrutiny by the RSB (major evaluations)

51 Purpose of Stakeholder Consultations Ensure that general public interest of the Union is well reflected in future design of EGF Ensure transparency and accountability Deliver high quality and credible evaluation by allowing interested parties to provide feedback and to contribute suggestions

52 Formats of Stakeholder Consultations EGF Networking Seminar targeted consultations 12-week public open (internet-based) consultations

53 How do the workshops work? In each group: Aims: 1 rapporteur (takes notes and presents to plenary) Other members: Discuss the questions, raise issues and exchange experiences Change roles for each workshop! Put yourself in a situation where you have either experienced the issue raised, or are wondering how to handle it Discuss and exchange ideas within each group Use your imagination!

54 Work plan for each workshop Read through the detailed questions (everyone for themselves). Clarify any problems of understanding (e.g. language, terms). Designate a rapporteur (takes notes and presents the conclusions to the other groups in plenary). This should be a different rapporteur for each workshop session if possible.

55 Work plan for each workshop Discuss each of the questions in turn Each person to give immediate reactions or first impressions Talk about your experiences or explain how things work in your country or ask a question Try to explore every idea, and make sure to cover all possible issues or views Depending on the topic, some people may have more to say than others. Encourage everyone to speak. Use the flipchart and pens to write answers, draw tables, graphs, charts.

56 Work plan for each workshop Draw conclusions from the discussion The rapporteur makes a quick oral summary to the group, outlining the main points s/he will present to the plenary. These points should reflect the results of your common thinking within the group. There doesn t need to be consensus though. If opinions diverge, say this in the conclusions.

57 11. Workshops start

58 11. Workshop 1 Consultation Themes: discussion of draft themes and questions

59 12.35 Workshop 2 Who are the key consultees?

60 15. Workshop 3 discussion of workplan

61 16. Workshop 4 supporting the mid-term evaluation

62 17. Rapporteur's summary Conclusions by the Commission

63 19. Conference Dinner