Monitoring Report SD-9: Resource Planning

Transcription

1 Monitoring Report SD-9: Resource Planning System Management Committee Report July 10, 2018 Mr. Javier Fernandez, Vice President Financial Services and CFO

2 SD-9: Resource Planning The Board of Directors recognizes that the District will have to adapt to the rapidly changing electric utility business environment. The OPPD resource planning process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess OPPD s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our customers. To attain this goal, OPPD shall: Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD s mix of generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power agreements and renewable energy resources. Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic growth, regulations and emerging technologies. Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD s Strategic Directives.

3 The OPPD resource planning process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess OPPD s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our customers. Resource Planning Process Supply Side Resource Options Organizational Inputs Dollar Targets Demand Side Resource Options OPPD System Load Forecast Risk Analysis Budgeting Software Every 5 years Fuel & Power Price Forecasts Gather Inputs Future Stakeholder Outreach Portfolio Optimization Dispatch Modeling Financial Modeling Stakeholder Outreach Integrated Resource Plan Generation Unit Parameters Environmental Regulation Develop Portfolios Dispatch Outputs Financial Model Output

4 The OPPD resource planning process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess OPPD s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our customers. OPPD has been busy assessing and making changes to it s resource portfolio: Rebalanced portfolio: Generation changes Collaboration with transmission planning to ensure power flow impacts of generation changes Ongoing increase of renewable energy Ability to perform economic evaluations of current and future generation assets in a dynamic energy market: Energy Capacity The increasing importance of market integration drives the ongoing effort to acquire sub hourly dispatch modeling to capture full economic impact of quick fire gas generation and renewable generation 4

5 The OPPD resource planning process will provide the resources and analytical capability to adequately assess OPPD s Integrated Resource Portfolio (or Supply and Demand Portfolio) to ensure reliable, competitive, cost-effective and environmentally sensitive service for our customers. Roster of various technology costs is maintained and utilized on an as needed basis Incorporation of computationally intensive risk based analysis: Deterministic modeling Risk based stochastic models SPP North Wind: 5

6 Periodically assess, for strategic and integrated resource plans, OPPD s mix of generation assets, demand-side management programs, purchased power agreements and renewable energy resources. Integrated Resource Plan in good standing with the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) - WAPA accepted the filing without constructive feedback We continually assess material changes in our service territory or in the utility industry that could warrant a portfolio review to be completed. Some of these changes include, and are not limited to: - Significant load changes - Meaningful changes to SPP accreditation policy - System reserve margin changes - Alterations of current environment regulations - Proposed new environmental regulations

7 Utilize multiple scenarios to properly evaluate the range of risks posed by varying future assumptions such as, but not limited to fuel costs, economic growth, regulations and emerging technologies. Sub-hourly dispatch platform has the ability to simulate multiple future environments by fluctuating natural gas, coal and power price results:

8 Ensure all integrated resource strategic plans support and align with OPPD s Strategic Directives. The planning process prioritizes the competing interests of many strategic directives: - SD-2: Competitive Rates - SD-4: Reliability - SD-5: Customer Satisfaction - SD-7: Environmental Stewardship - SD-9: Resource Planning - SD-11: Economic Development - SD-13: Stakeholder Outreach and Communication - SD-15: Enterprise Risk Management

9 Recommendation The System Management Committee has reviewed and accepted this Monitoring Report for SD-9 and recommends that the Board find OPPD to be sufficiently in compliance with Board Policy SD-9.

10 Policy Refinements The Systems Management Committee was solicited for clarifications and/or feedback regarding policy refinements on June 20 and July 6 No formal clarifications and/or feedback has been received