What is the role for SSN after a natural disaster? Country case studies Concept Note

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1 Draft for discussion: June 1, 2007 What is the role for SSN after a natural disaster? Country case studies Concept Note Edward Clay, Overseas Development Institute, London [ e.clay@odi.org.uk & e.clay@btinternet.com ] 1. Background and summary This is a Concept Note/Progress Report drafted one month into a three month ( 2 person month) for a desk review study being undertaken at the Overseas Development Institute, London, by Edward Clay (senior author) and Tim Braunholtz (Research Officer) with Paul Harvey, Kay Sharp and Rachel Slater in an advisory/peer group review role. The note explains the approach being adopted, progress so far and identifies areas in which co-operation is requested. 2. Objective The main objective of the proposed study is to conduct a review and an analysis of interventions after natural disasters, and provide suggestions on how best to intervene in different circumstances. The results of the study will help to design effective disaster related programs before the occurrence of a disaster and that can be easily adapted and implemented. In particular the study is asked address the following seven broad issues: a) adaptations to usual safety net targeting and delivery mechanisms b) the transition from humanitarian assistance to disaster-related safety net assistance and then to a long run safety net program c) how long should programs be implemented? d) Who should be the primary targeted beneficiaries e) How can programs be scaled up and down rapidly and efficiently? f) Which programs work best in which circumstances? g) How to integrate donor responses versus domestic response? (see Annex A) 3. Approach Realistically a short, desk based study should not seek to provide definitive answers to such a wide range of broad questions. Instead, the study can only hope to move the debate forwards, providing the context for further discussion within the Bank and with the Bank s partners. It can focus attention on issues about which there is an emerging consensus or lack of agreement, pointing to more specific questions on which there is the need for further evidence based review. The approach adopted has been to use a literature review, supplemented by telephone interviews, to provide for three recent major disasters: ODIconceptnote1 June,

2 a detailed chronology of the event and the phasing of the response, setting SSN social protection interventions in context; a short description of the major SSN interventions and their salient features; and a set of provisional findings about process effectiveness. As agreed in the ToR, the profiles include: Aceh and the Tsunami of December ; Pakistan earthquake of 8 October 2005; and Malawi s climate-variability related food security crises since The intention is to focus on the trajectory of the disaster shock and responses, both by those affected and through public intervention. The timelines of interventions will eventually be represented graphically in a decision tree form and, to the extent that evidence is available, document quantitatively in terms of process outcomes. To launch the investigation, the authors are using a simple, well-documented case of an extreme, highly destructive event in a less complex, open-economy, the volcanic eruption on the Caribbean island of Montserrat. This case is being supplemented with evidence from other sudden impact highly damaging events on other small middle income islands analysed during a previous Bank sponsored study. It provides a prototype for the approach adopted. In this case the immediate response and in the transition from immediate relief to recovery and rehabilitation (R&R), including social protection measures, were effectively unconstrained by financial limitations and further simplified by there being only one funding source. Montserrat had a pre-disaster population of c and is a very small UK overseas territory in receipt of budgetary support. In Aceh, Pakistan and Malawi the main post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation interventions are on-going. Consequently these projects and programs have not been the subject of either completion reports or evaluation. The initial attempt to develop a chronology for the Pakistan Earthquake in Annex B shows the complexity of the event and response, and the considerable information requirement for undertaking a broad ranging review. Hypotheses to be explored: There is a strong temptation reflected in the disaster reduction literature to see appropriate forms of intervention as either one case fits all natural disasters or as almost entirely context specific, depending on the nature of the shock, the society and economy affected and the circumstances of government and agencies. However, an initial review of the evidence suggests that it is worthwhile to explore, at the risk of being provocative, some widely applicable ground rules for intervention, at least in the case of, low-probability, highly destructive disasters, including earthquakes, tsunamis and extreme storms (equivalent to direct hits of hurricanes category 4 and above). The most effect form of response should be to rapidly restore disrupted market-based economic processes, and then ODIconceptnote1 June,

3 Select interventions that are to a large extent mediated through markets (various forms of one-off or periodic lump sum financial transfers) rather than administered in-kind. Lump sum transfers are (cet. par.) more effective because they - minimise constraints on agency of affected vulnerable populations in repair and replacement of assets and restoring livelihoods; are less distorting; and are more cost-effective (lower transaction costs etc) The use and, if necessary adaptation, of existing mechanisms is more likely to be effective (timely, targeted and appropriate transfer) than creating new institutional forms and mechanisms in the affected area or country. Adaptation limits the need for governance related actions for achieving short-term goals. Relief agencies avoid these issues in using temporary, quasi autonomous arrangements for providing immediate humanitarian assistance which are less appropriate for R&R. Nevertheless, there is considerable context specificity in types of disaster and disaster situations that has to be recognised and taken into account. 4. Activities The study began on April 23, [The start-up was postponed due to unforeseen processing delays.] May 2007: the first step has the collection and the analysis of published and grey literature and other secondary sources of information on the disaster and its aftermath for Pakistan by Tim Braunholtz. This review has resulted in a provisional chronology of events and actions and a profile of SSN interventions (Annex B). During June 2007 the review of the literature and of recent government and donor experience on the provision of safety nets programs will be extended to Aceh and then Malawi. The case studies are being complemented by selected review of other recent experiences in the utilization of safety nets in a disaster context, in particular cashbased transfers that have been the subject of an extensive ODI investigation. The first profile/trajectory for Pakistan will meanwhile be circulated to a limited (to be specified) number of persons for comment. The first draft of the study should be completed by July 31, The team is then expected to provide the necessary revisions following the comments received by peer reviewers and participants at a possible workshop. R&R projects and programs are on-going in all three case study countries. The study could therefore possibly have a role in providing an input into subsequent lesson learning processes with partners in all three cases. ODIconceptnote1 June,

4 5. Assistance and advice: The study is entirely desk-based, small and extremely time-constrained. The success of the review will be heavily dependent on advice and assistance from contacts in agencies including the World Bank, especially regarding grey literature. In continuing the review the co-operation of those associated with the Pakistan R&R activities is requested in verifying/commenting on Annex B. The Aceh review will be undertaking drawing on the information already available in the public domain from the TEC evaluation and, it is hoped, extensively supplemented by information being put together by the Bank s Djakarta/Aceh team with whom contacts have been made already. Malawi: within ODI Rachel Slater is providing up to date advice and further advice and assistance are requested. Endnotes/references: Benson, Charlotte and Edward J. Clay Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. Disaster Risk Management Series No. 4. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Clay, Edward J and others An evaluation of HMG s response to the Montserrat volcanic emergency. 2 Vols. Evaluation Report EV635. London: DFID. Harvey, Paul Cash-based responses in emergencies. HPG Report 24. London, Overseas Development Institute. Sharp, Kay, T. Brown and Teshome Targeting Ethiopia s productive safety nets programme (PSNP), Overseas Development Institute and IDI Group. Tsunami Evaluation Coalition, Synthesis Report. ALNAP, Overseas Development Institute, London. ODIconceptnote1 June,

5 Annex A: PROPOSAL FOR A STUDY ON NATURAL DISASTERS - What is the role for SSN after a natural disaster? Country case studies This document provides the basis for undertaking the study along the lines specified in the Terms of reference provided in the request for proposal. Objective The main objective of the proposed work is to conduct a review and an analysis of interventions after natural disasters, and provide suggestions on how best intervene in different circumstances. The results of the study will help to design effective disaster related programs before the occurrence of a disaster and that can be easily adapted and implemented: In particular the study will address the following questions: a) What adaptations to usual safety net targeting and delivery mechanisms are needed? b) When, conceptually, and how, in practice, is the transition made from humanitarian assistance to disaster-related safety net assistance and then to a long run safety net program or policy? c) For how long should these programs be implemented? d) Who should be the primary targeted beneficiaries: those that have suffered larger losses (usually covered by the initial compensation packages) or those who have lost critical assets and income earning opportunities and may be or become chronically poor? e) How can programs be scaled up and down rapidly and efficiently? [Assuming that it is possible to link and dovetail pre-existing programs and post-disaster programs] f) Which programs work best in which circumstances and how should they be adapted to local circumstances? e) How to integrate donor responses versus domestic response, Activities The first step will be a review of the literature and of recent government and donor experience on the provision of safety nets programs (transfers in cash or kind, public works, targeted fee waivers or subsidies for key services or goods, etc.) to the affected populations that need medium term support to recover from the loss of assets and income. This activity will consists in the collection and the analysis of published and grey literature and other secondary sources of information dealing with recent experiences in the utilization of safety nets after natural disasters from a several countries. The list of country experiences included in the study will be drawn from a set of core countries: Pakistan, Indonesia, and Southern Africa; and from any of the following: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Turkey, Mexico, Honduras and small Caribbean Islands, Jamaica, Madagascar, etc. Deliverables and Duties and Responsibilities of the team The team of researchers from ODI, will present a short concept note with the proposed outline of the country studies by April 20, The first draft of the study should be completed by July 31, The team is then expected to provide the necessary revisions following the comments received by peer reviewers and participants at a possible workshop. The team of ODI researchers will work under the guidance of Dr. Edward Clay who is responsible to maintain close communication with the TTL for this project (Carlo del Ninno). The other members of the team, Paul Harvey, Kay Sharp and Rachel Slater will advise and contribute to the study. [ For Annex B - see file: Pakistan earthquake chronology draft 4.doc ODIconceptnote1 June,