Evaluation and Selection Model of Strategic Emerging Industries in Guangdong Province of China Based on AHP-TOPSIS

Transcription

1 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management; Vol. 0, No. ; 05 ISSN E-ISSN 8-89 Publshed by Canadan Center of Scence and Educaton Evaluaton and Selecton Model of Strategc Emergng Industres n Guangdong Provnce of Chna Based on AHP-TOPSIS Jun-ru Chen, He Ne & Ka-long L Internatonal Busness School, Jnan Unversty, Zhuha, Chna College of Economcs, Jnan Unversty, Guangzhou, Chna Correspondence: Xue-Jun Ln, Internatonal Busness School, Jnan Unversty, 59070, Zhuha, Chna. E-mal: tlxj@jnu.edu.cn Receved: August 5, 05 Accepted: September, 05 Onlne Publshed: October 8, 05 do:0.559/jbm.v0np6 URL: Abstract Consderng the regonal characterstcs of strategc emergng ndustres, we proposed a strategc emergng ndustry selecton model based on AHP-TOPSIS and used the model to do a comprehensve evaluaton n order to acheve a development selecton of strategc emergng ndustres of a certan regon. We buld the ndustral compettveness evaluaton ndcator system based on technologcal nnovaton perspectve, and then we use analytc herarchy process (AHP) to make ndcators empowerment. Fnally, we use TOPSIS method to evaluate strategc emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce of Chna. Instance analyss shows that the basc conclusons are dentcal wth the actual status quo n Guangdong, and t verfes the valdty and ratonalty of the model. Keywords: selecton, strategc emergng ndustres, AHP-TOPSIS Introducton Strategc emergng ndustry s the ndustry collecton refers to the advanced technology, whch plays an mportant role n the natonal economy, and t has the nfluence on other ndustres. It can grow nto a pllar ndustry n the future but the ndustry s stll n the ncubaton perod and growth perod (M, 04). Its rse can be expected to gradually become a new economc growth pont n the future. Compared wth the tradtonal ndustres, the hgh-growth, nnovatve, drven and persstent of emergng ndustres of strategc wll promote sustanable development of the natonal economy (Ou, 0). In the selecton of strategc emergng ndustres should be consdered on the natonal wll and polcy support, and we should focus on the leadng role effect of ndustres and technology spllover effect of strategc emergng ndustres. It s necessary to consder the current output value target, but also pay attenton to the long-term ndustral technology upgradng goals (Guo, 0). In terms of the defnton and characterstcs of strategc and emergng ndustres, Wan (00) stressed the strategc emergng ndustry s dfferent from the nnovatve features of other ndustres; Zhu (00) emphaszed the mportant sgnfcance of strategc emergng ndustres n the natonal economy and ndustral structure restructurng. L et al. (0) supposed that the scentfc and technologcal nnovaton promote the development of strategc emergng ndustres, therefore, they stressed the mportance of technologcal nnovaton n strategc emergng ndustry. In terms of evaluaton ndcator research n strategc emergng ndustres, He et al. (0) beleved that the ndcator selecton of strategc emergng ndustres should reflect the four characterstcs, whch refers to the overall ndustry, ndustry leadng and ndustry assocaton, ndustry dynamcs; Sun (0) beleved that the development of emergng ndustres should nclude nature, economc, socal and human, technologcal, ndustral compettveness and the government of sx aspects of select targets; Zhang et al. (00) thought that we should consder carefully to select the ndcators n respectve of polcy-orented, economc effects, nnovaton, development potental. In the evaluaton of strategc emergng ndustres, He et al. (00) uses fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton method to evaluate the emergng strategc ndustres; Zhang et al. (00) used the method of gray correlaton analyss on emergng strategc ndustres to evaluate; Qao (00) used ndustry contrbuton and the ndustry regonal compettveness as horzontal and vertcal coordnates, drawng polcy gudance to establsh strategc emergng 6

2 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 ndustres matrx selecton model. In summary, based on prevous research, we construct a model of AHP-TOPSIS to do a selecton and evaluaton research. AHP s a decson method for a common speces of qualtatve and quanttatve, and TOPSIS method s a common and effectve method n a mult-objectve decson analyss, ths paper attempts to combne AHP and TOPSIS, through a combnaton of empowerment methods to establsh the strategc emergng ndustry selecton evaluaton system, and the use TOPSIS to effectvely evaluate and select strategc emergng ndustres of Guangdong provnce. Establshment of the Evaluaton and Selecton Model. The Determnaton of Indcator Weghts va AHP AHP, put forward by Saaty n the 970s, calls for a herarchcal structure. The herarchcal structure generally contans three sectons. Target herarchy: the target that we want to acheve. Crteron herarchy: the factors that can affect the achevement of target. Measure herarchy: the scheme that s avalable. Judgment matrx, A ( aj ) mn, s constructed accordng to the -9 scale method. The weghts and maxmum egenvalue, calculated by judgment matrx, are used to fgure out the consstency ndex, CI, RI, s determned wth the order of matrx n max n CI n CI CR RI Only when CR < 0., can the judgment consstency matrx be accepted, that s, the weghts can be employed.. TOPSIS Method TOPSIS s proposed by Huang et al. (98), whch s an excellent evaluaton method. The basc dea s: comprehensve evaluaton problem s transformed nto ganng the dfferences between each evaluated object- dstance. That s, be n the normalzed data matrx to fnd the optmal goal and the worst goal and determne the postve deal soluton and the negatve deal soluton, then to calculate the dstance between each evaluaton object and the deal soluton and also the negatve deal soluton, and comparng to get comprehensve evaluaton rankngs. Concrete steps of TOPSIS method are as follows (He et al., 04): Step : Polarty process evaluaton ndcators to obtan polarty consstent matrx, due to the ndcators data of ths paper are all very large ndcators, t may not be processed. Step : Normalze the evaluaton ndcators through the range transformaton method, the normalzed matrx X ( xj ) mn s: rj mn{ rj} xj,,,... m; j,,..., n max{ r } mn{ r } Where r j s the value of the correspondng journal ndcators, x [0,],,,..., m; j,,..., n. j j j x j s the dmensonless value, and also Step : Construct a weghted decson matrx norms Z. Based on weght of each ndcator, so zj wj xj,,,... m; j,,..., n. Step 4: Determne postve deal soluton z and negatve deal soluton z. Suppose the j-th attrbute value of postve deal soluton z s z j, and the j-th attrbute value of negatve deal soluton z s z j. So, postve deal soluton and negatve deal soluton are denoted by: z mn{ z },,,..., m; j,,..., n, z max{ z },,,..., m; j,,..., n j j Step 5: Separately calculate the dstance between -th evaluaton object and deal soluton. s the dstance between -th evaluaton object and postve deal soluton z, and s the dstance between -th evaluaton d d 6

3 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 object and negatve deal soluton z : d 4 ( z j j z j ),,,...,,m, d 4 ( j j ), j z z,,..., m Step 6: Calculate relatve comprehensve evaluaton value of each object and rank them. Comprehensve evaluaton value for evaluaton object s: b d d d,,,....,m Comprehensve evaluaton value s between 0 and, f the value s closer to, ndcatng thatt the correspondng evaluaton objects closer to the optmal level; conversely, the worst level. Summarzaton above, we determne the weght of evaluaton ndcators of emergng ndustres va AHP, and we use TOPSIS method to have a comprehensve evaluaton rankng, and further, select compettve ndustres to analyze. Ths s the establshment of the evaluaton and selecton model.. Instance Analyss. Constructon of Evaluaton Index System of Emergng Industry Ths paper s based on the research results of a number of scholars. We ultmately concluded to regard technology nnovaton dmenson, economc effcency, knowledge effcency, hardware support, software support those fve dmensons as the ndex evaluaton system through usng Delph method by the Guangdong Provncal Scence and Technology Department (to easly descrbe, we use fve dmensons for the short).. The evaluaton system s shown n Fgure as follows: Fgure. Evaluaton ndex system of emergng ndustry Among them, the techncal nnovaton behavor refers to nnovatve knowledge and new technologes, new processes, new producton methods and busness model mplementaton process. Research development or technology combnatonn s a manfestaton of technologcal nnovaton behavor, wthout technologcal nnovatonn behavor, the old products cannot be transformed nto new products, new technology and new servces. Current technology nnovaton behavor dmenson, generally s measured by the nvestment of regonal scence and technology, ndustry scence and technology personnel, government scence and technology, scentfc and technologcal cooperaton. Economc effcency and knowledge effcency belong to the contents of the benefts of technologcal nnovaton. Becausee the techncal nnovaton behavor s necessary condton to mprove the compettveness of emergng ndustres, technology nnovaton benefts can drectly reflect the level of compettveness of emergng ndustres. At present, we use emergng ndustry output value, sales ncome to measure the economc effcency, and use ncreasng the annual amount of lcense number and trademarks number of famous brands to measure knowledge effcency. Ablty to support technologcal nnovaton s dvded nto hardware support and software support, t can promote or hnder emergng enhance ndustral compettveness to a certan extent. And the ablty s manly measured through the nnovatve platform, 6

4 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 technology servces and GDP.. Collecton and Collaton of Data As the statstcs and statstcal ndcators of emergng ndustry cannot be obtaned, n order to establsh prorty target ndustres, we selected towns as an emergng ndustry specalzed to represent the Guangdong Provnce. Ths paper selected 8 specalzed town to study emergng ndustres, ncludng 5 of new electronc nformaton ndustres, 4 of the semconductor lghtng ndustres, of bopharmaceutcal ndustres, 4 of new materals ndustres, 0 of energy savng ndustres, 8 of ocean ndustres, 5 of logstcs ndustres, and of the electrc car ndustres. And the compettveness of those ndustres s evaluated n respect of technology, economc, knowledge, hardware, software. Each emergng ndustres correspondng specalzed town lsted n Table below, the data of ths paper are manly from the master s thess of Ou (0). In order to analyze data easly and ensure comparablty of data, ths paper uses the data after standardzaton process. After prncpal component analyss, wth the correlaton coeffcent matrx varables, Bartlett sphercty test and the KMO test method analyss, and then usng varmax factor rotaton method; after scores calculated by regresson, come to the compettveness scores of emergng ndustry specalzed town n behalf of the Guangdong Provnce n technology, dmenson, economc and knowledge, hardware, software. Part of the evaluaton ratngs n the followng Table. Table. Part of the evaluaton ratngs Industry code Specalzed towns Technologcal B B Nanha Luocun offce B Technology nnovaton town(lghtng specalzed) B Nanha Luocun offce 0.99 B Technology nnovaton town(lghtng specalzed).54 B Nanha Luocun offce B Technology nnovaton town(lghtng specalzed) B Nanha Luocun offce B Technology nnovaton town(lghtng specalzed) 9.55 B Nanha Luocun offce B Technology nnovaton town(lghtng specalzed) Constructon of Emergng Industry Optmzaton Model Based on AHP-TOPSIS Accordng to the collatng the evaluaton ndex score above the ndustry classfcaton and sorted by ndustry, and we obtaned the average of each ndustry evaluaton of the correspondng fve scores, and regard t as a evaluaton ndex ndustry ratngs, data processng are shown n Table below. Table. Part of the evaluaton ndex ratngs Technology Economc Knowledge Hardware Software Semconductor lghtng Electrc car Ocean Energy savng New materals Bopharmaceutcal Logstcs New electronc nformaton Accordng to the shown data, to horzontal comparson, the composte score of semconductor lghtng ndustry n technologcal s 4.900, n terms of economc composte score for.776, on knowledge ntegrated score for.5998, the composte score of hardware for.504, software composte score for In the 64

5 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 semconductor lghtng ndustry, software support s the most compettve relatve to other ndex. Smlarly we can see, n the electrc vehcle ndustry, the most compettve s hardware support; n the marne ndustry, the software support s the most compettve; n the energy-savng and envronmental protecton ndustry, the software supports s the most compettve; n the new materals ndustry, the most compettve s knowledge effcency ; n the bopharmaceutcal ndustry, software support s the most compettve; n the logstcs ndustry, the software support s the most compettve; n the word of new electronc nformaton ndustry, software support s the most compettve. To longtudnal comparson, n aspect of technology, economc, software support, new electronc nformaton ndustry s the most compettve; n respect of knowledge and hardware support, the electrc car ndustry s the most compettve... Determnaton of the Weght of Evaluaton Index Ths paper uses AHP method to determne the weght. At frst, we bult the judgment matrx. Its judgment matrx shows the nteracton relatonshp among the ndexes. Each row of the determne the matrx A represents technology, economc, knowledge, hardware, software. A The column vector ω(0.5, 0.58, 0.4, 0.05, ) obtaned by A. Corresponds of above consstency rato CR = 0.08, s less than 0.,whch s ndcatng the consstency of judgment matrx s acceptable. Fnally, the obtaned weghts of fve ndcators are shown n Table as follows (technology W, economc W, knowledge W, hardware W4, software W5). Table. Weghts of fve ndcators Index Weghts Technology W 0.5 Economc W 0.58 Knowledge W 0.4 Hardware W Software W Accordng to shown table, the share of knowledge s 0.4, whch plays a bgger role n those fve ndcators. The second one s technology, whch proporton s 0.5. The others, economc, hardware, software support s 0.58, 0.05 and It s obvous the technology and knowledge wll brng to the ndustry more compettve n the evaluaton of the emergng ndustry compettveness... Postve and Negatve Ideal Soluton of Evaluaton System Based on TOPSIS Method After determnng the weght of the evaluaton ndex, we can obtan a weghted average score on the compettveness of emergng ndustres accordng to prevous data. And we calculate the postve and negatve deal solutons of emergng ndustres and the extent of closng to the postve and negatve the deal value through usng a weghted score based on the results of TOPSIS. Because the data s standardzed by the AHP method, t can drectly use nto the calculatons. Some results are shown n Table4 as follow. 65

6 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 Table 4. Postve and negatve deal solutons of emergng ndustres Industry d+ d- D Semconductor lghtng Electrc car Ocean Energy savng New materals Bopharmaceutcal Logstcs New electronc nformaton The table shows that, D8>D7>D5>D>D>D6>D4>D. The postve and negatve solutons of new electronc nformaton ndustry are most close to the deal solutons. The second one s logstcs ndustry. The extend closeness of electrc car ndustry s weakest. In addton, The fact, whch refers to the dfference of maxmum value and mnmum value s 0.95, ndcates dfferences of closeness extend between emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce are a bt bg. The closer to the extent, the more compettve to the ndustry, we can see the greater the domnant development of emergng ndustres n Guangdong. The above results ndcate that n terms of ndustral compettveness, new electronc nformaton s the strongest, followed by the logstcs ndustry, new materals ndustry, semconductor lghtng, marne ndustry, bo-pharmaceutcal ndustry, energy savng ndustry, the weakest s the electrc car ndustry. Therefore, we should gve prorty to the development of more compettve new electronc nformaton ndustry, logstcs ndustry, new materals ndustry, semconductor lghtng ndustry... Stuaton Analyss of Emergng Industres n Guangdong Provnce In 04, the strategc emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce contnued the good trend of steady development and enhanced overall strength. Also the ndustres contnued to expand the scale and t s powerful mpetus to the provnce's economc growth. In 04, the strategc emergng ndustres added value of 7.77 bllon yuan n Guangdong, 8.% over the prevous year. The provnce's ndustral market share s.4%, and ndustral sales output value s,66,740,000,000 trllon yuan, whch s an ncrease of 0.5%. From the perspectve of ndustral scale, new electronc nformaton ndustry, bo-ndustry, energy savng ndustry and energy savng ndustry, new materals ndustry and semconductor lghtng ndustry have acheved large value of total ndustral added value. The ndustral added value, are 9.68 bllon yuan, bllon yuan,.68 bllon yuan, 7.6 bllon yuan, bllon yuan, the shares are respectvely 7.6%, 8.0%, 0.%, 8.7%, 8.%, the sze of the provnce ndustral added value accounted for 4.7%,.5%,.%,.%,.0%. Specfc data are shown n Table 5. Table 5. Output value of emergng ndustres n Guangdong provnce n 04 Total output value Increase value Industry Absolute Absolute Growth(%) Bllon yuan Bllon yuan Growth(%) Total New electronc nformaton Electrc car Semconductor lghtng Bopharmaceutcal Hgh level equpment manufacture Energy savng New resource New materal From the growth perspectve: n 04, the provnce's strategc emergng ndustres grew faster n bo-ndustry and new electronc nformaton ndustry, were up 9.9% and 9.0%. The growth rate of new materals ndustry, new electrc car ndustry and hgh-level equpment manufacturng ndustry s more than 6.0%. 66

7 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 Seen from above data, new electronc nformaton ndustry s growth rate s 0.%, whch contrbute to the growth of emergng ndustry. The new materals ndustry s rate s 0.9%, t s the largest contrbuton to GDP growth for the emergng ndustry's. New electronc nformaton ndustry and new materal ndustry are the most compettve n the ndustry development n Guangdong Provnce. Semconductor lghtng s growth trend s also best wth the rate of 7.4%. The present stuaton of development of emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce s consstent wth optmzaton usng AHP-TOPSIS model. The fact ndcates that AHP-TOPSIS model came to the concluson on applcablty of strategc ndustry development of Guangdong Provnce. Development stuaton of new electronc car are at the end of the development of emergng ndustres, whch s probably n Guangdong provnce for the development of new energy vehcles such as electrc vehcles, has just started, compared wth other fast-growng ndustres are stll n a relatvely backward poston. As tmes goes on, the compettveness of new electronc car may be creepng up. To sum up, n order to contnue to mprove the speed of development and promote development of emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce, we should vgorously develop more compettve ndustres such as new electronc nformaton ndustry, new materals ndustry, semconductor lghtng. 4. Concluson Snce 898, Guangdong s GDP n 0 provnces and ctes n Chna, contnuously occupy the frst. Guangdong Provnce has become the bggest economc provnce of Chna, accountng for /8 of the total economy output, and beyond Hong Kong and Tawan, and has reached the upper-mddle-ncome countres, of moderately developed countres. In 04, Guangdong provncal government publshed the Guangdong strategc emergng ndustres the twelfth fve-year plan on the webste, ndcatng that total 48 new ndustral projects wll be bult wth a total nvestment of bllon yuan. Among them, the provncal fnance n the "fve" perod, wll nvest bllon yuan to support centralzed strategc emergng ndustres. So t s very necessary to study on the optonal selecton to develop the emergng ndustry n Guangdong provnce. Based on the AHP-TOPSIS method, ths paper researched the evaluaton and optmzaton of multple strategc emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce. At the tme of usng the AHP method, we consder the expert opnons and the objectvty requred of the data tself, and chooses data types based on prevous researches, n order to acheve the TOPSIS method to calculate the error reducton. Frst of all, based on past research, ths paper dentfed fve ndcators for the evaluaton of ndustry compettveness, namely, the technologcal nnovaton dmenson, economc effcency, knowledge effcency, hardware support and software support. These fve areas are the mportant factors affectng the compettveness of ndustres. Then the paper used the Delph method to determne matrx to be used by the method of AHP judgment. And accordng to the judgment matrx, we obtaned weght vector, the proporton of scores n the compettveness n the ndustry s acceptable after consstency checkng. Then the emergng ndustres of total ndex scores are weghted to be preferental. Usng the ndustry's overall compettveness ratng by TOPSIS method, we calculated the postve values, negatve values, and the closeness extent. Compared wth each emergng ndustres, n Guangdong Provnce, there s a new electronc nformaton ndustry, new materals ndustry and semconductor lghtng ndustry. Fnally, emergng ndustry development s present stuaton nvestgaton and analyss of Guangdong Provnce n 04 has shown that new electronc nformaton ndustry and new materals ndustry, semconductor lghtng ndustry are rankng top. It concdes wth the results obtaned n ths paper. Therefore, we concluded we should gve prorty to the development of new electronc nformaton ndustry, new materals ndustry and semconductor lghtng ndustry n Guangdong Provnce, Ths paper used the AHP-TOPSIS method from the technologcal nnovaton dmenson, economc effcency, knowledge effcency, hardware support and software support as evaluaton ndex of emergng ndustres n Guangdong Provnce. Ths research method n regon-specfc optmzaton of mult-level strategc emergng ndustres s of applcablty, and t can adapt to the strategc emergng ndustres for the development of comprehensve evaluaton and optmzaton. Acknowledgements The project of the college students' nnovaton and entrepreneurshp tranng plan n Jnan unversty (natonal level) (No ). References Guo, L. Q. (0). Domestc about the new development and comments on strategc emergng ndustres n Chna. Socal Scence Journal, (), He, N., Zhang, Y. B., & Zhang, Z. (04). Evaluaton of Academc Level of Sc-tech Journals Based on Rough 67

8 Internatonal Journal of Busness and Management Vol. 0, No. ; 05 Set and TOPSIS. Internatonal Journal of Statstcs and Probablty, 4(),. Huang, C. L., & Yoon, K. (98). Multattrbute Decson Makng: Methods and Applcatons (pp. -4). NY: Sprng-Verlag. Huang, Y. X. (0). Study on the Development of Strategc Emergng Industres n the Central Resource-based Ctes-Take Loud as an Example. Journal of Hunan Insttute of Engneerng,, 0-4. L, L., & Lu, Q. N. (0). Scence and technology nnovaton to promote Tan Jn strategc emergng ndustry development path of research. Tanjn Economy, 9, 9-. Ln, X. J. (0). The development of and formng model research strategc emergng ndustres. Chna Soft Scence,, 6-4. Ou, L. F. (0). The compettveness research of emerng ndustres n Guangdong provnces based on technology nnovaton. South Chna Unversty of Technology Qao, F. L. A., Yang, J. B., & Hou, Q. A. (00). Research on selecton and evaluaton of new strategc ndustres n Laonng Provnce. Journal of Shenyang Unversty of Technology,, Su, H. Y. (0). Research on Comprehensve Advantages Evaluaton of Strategc Emergng Industry. Harbn Unversty of Scence and Technology. Sun, W. (0). Decsons Analyss of AHP n Strategc Emergng Industry Evaluaton and Selecton n Henan Provnce. Journal of Henan Insttute of Engneerng,, Wan, G. (00). Grasp the global ndustry adjustment opportunty, cultvatng and developng strategc emergng ndustres. Truth Seekng, (), 8-0. Wang, W., & Lu, Y. U. (0). Qao P. Selecton and Evaluaton of Strategc Emergng Industres and Emprcal Study Emprcal Analyss on Qqhar Cty. Scence & Technology Management Research,, 6-0. Ya-Jng M. A. (04). Research on the Development of Dalan Strategc Emergng Industry Based on SWOT Model. Journal of Changchun Unversty,, 9-. Zhang, L. Q., Zheng, C. H., & Yan, W. (00). Evaluaton of Strategc Emergng Industres Based on Grey Relatonal Analyss: Emprcal Analyss on Bology and Medcne Industry. Mathematcs n Economcs, 7(), Zheng, C. H., & Yan, W. (0). Assessment ndex system and evaluatng model of strategc emergng ndustres. Studes n Scence of Scence, 5, Zheng, C. H., Zhang, X., & Zhou, Z. (00). The Study of Strategc Emergng Industres Selecton System and Model. Scence of Scence & Management of S & T,, Zhou, J. (0). Development and Dstrbuton of Strategc Emergng Industres n Chna. Statstcal Research, 9, 4-0. Zhu, R. B., & Lu, Y. (00). The Nurture and Its Independent Innovaton of the Strategc Emergng Industry. Chongqng Socal Scences, (), Copyrghts Copyrght for ths artcle s retaned by the author(s), wth frst publcaton rghts granted to the journal. Ths s an open-access artcle dstrbuted under the terms and condtons of the Creatve Commons Attrbuton lcense ( 68