ICES WGHANSA REPORT PLANNING IN FUTURE. Proposal to ACOM. Data deteriorating, new method available, etc

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1 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Annex 3: Benchmark preparation 3.1 Latest benchmark results 3.2 Planning future benchmarks S TOCK ASSESS. STATUS LATEST BENCHMARK example Update deviating from bench-mark Update OK, Year Future proposals for internal use Proposal to ACOM Data deteriorating, new method available, etc PLANNING IN FUTURE FURTHER PLANNING ane-pore Update OK COMMENTS sar-78 Update OK To be carried out at the same time than sar-soth hom-soth Update OK sar-soth Update OK To be carried out at the same time than sar-bisc

2 568 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in Divisions VIIIa,b,d and Subarea VII (Bay of Biscay, Southern Celtic Seas and English Channel) Stock sar-78 Benchmark Year: 2017 Planned by EG /Agreed by ACOM Stock coordinator Name: Lionel Pawlowski Stock assessor Name: Lionel Pawlowski Data contact Name: Lionel Pawlowski Issue Problem/Aim Work needed / possible direction of solution Data needed to be able to do this: are these available / where should these come from? External expertise needed at benchmark Tuning series Discards Biological Parameters Ecosystem/mixed fisheries considerations Assessment method - Short times series during last benchmark (2013). Relatively bad cohort tracking - no coverage of area VII. Few information available from sampling Not a problem Not a problem Trends based assessment for the time being. Alternate indices (combined information from the different surveys?) Alternate solution to provide an assessment might be to look at more closely to the hydrographic conditions in the relevant areas Development on a surplus production model in progress. Preliminary runs in line with previous approaches. Data are already collected Survey/Hydrographic data Experts on tuning indices Ecosystem/environmental modelling experts Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment Forecast method No STF other than the DLS approaches Dependant on the assessment method. Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment Biological Reference Points Not defined Review of existing information and appropriate tools to estimates ref. points Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment

3 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in Divisions VIIIc and IXa (Cantabrian Sea, Atlantic Iberian Waters) Stock Sardine in VIIIc and IXa. Stock coordinator Stock assessor Data contact Name: Alexandra Silva Name: Alexandra Silva & Isabel Riveiro Name: Alexandra Silva Issue Problem/Aim Work needed / possible direction of solution Stock identity Tuning series Following the outcome from project SARDYN, sardine in VIIIc and IXa is considered to be a separate stock from sardine in VIIIb+a and northwest Africa. However, there is indication of some exchange between VIIIc and Biscay North (VIIIb+a). Portuguese and Spanish spring acoustic surveys are combined in a single index of abundance in the assessment. The survey relative catchability and implications for their joint or separate use in tuning the assessment need to be investigated. There are conflicting signals between the acoustic and the DEPM survey in some years. Exploratory analyses indicate that P0 may be a good proxy of SSB. Investigate the possibility to estimate sardine P0 from horse mackerel AEPM surveys to complement interim years in sardine DEPM. Review literature on genetic, morphometric, other stock identification methods. Analyse abundance-at-age and catch-at-age data disaggregated by area to follow cohorts in space/time. Perform stage-specific analysis of otolith elemental composition (LA-ICPMS) Perform a new genetic analysis in order to explore migration rates. Revisit data from previous intercalibration experiments. Investigate the causes of conflicting signals between DEPM and acoustic surveys Sort and stage sardine eggs collected in horse mackerel surveys. Data needed to be able to do this: are these available / where should these come from? Data available from IPMA, IEO and IFREMER. Samples of otoliths and material for genetic analysis are available. The performance of the studies depend on getting funding for the analyses. Dedicated session to discuss the results in WGACEGG if needed. Depends on work to be carried out within WGACEGG. Samples of sardine eggs from horse mackerel egg surveys are available from IPIMAR and IEO databases. External expertise needed at benchmark type of expertise / proposed names Steve Cadrin Miguel Bernal

4 570 ICES WGHANSA REPORT 2015 Biological Parameters Ogive and weights-at-are fixed in at values far from long term average at some ages; obtain estimates by year Weights-at-age are derived from spring acoustic surveys whereas the maturity ogive is derived from DEPM surveys. Tuning of the model to the DEPM survey should be based on weight-at-age consistent with the DEPM survey dates. Compile data to review weights and maturity-at-age for as many years as possible prior to1985 Estimate weights-at-age from DEPM surveys. Data available from the databases of commercial samples from IPIMAR and IEO since the early 1980s, from AZTI since the early 1990s. Availability of earlier data to be explored. Data available from the databases of IPIMAR and IEO Data from WGHANSA. Data from WGHANSA, environmental data from??. Assessment method Investigate assumptions about fishery and survey selectivity (over time and age); explore alternative temporal and spatial disaggregation of assessment data. Investigate stock-recruitment relationships within the assessment model. Depending on the results from stock identity and biological work (above), investigate different stock structure hypothesis Explore the use of environmental variables in the assessment and short term projection of the stock, namely to help explain recruitment, growth and maturity-at-age. Reference points are not defined for this stock and might be considered. Compile information on the role of sardine as a forage fish in the pelagic ecosystem Explore survey and catch data to get guidelines for modelling fishery and survey selectivity. Analyse stock recruitment data. Apply sensitivity and simulation analyses to investigate selectivity and stock-recruitment assumptions. Review literature, select appropriate environmental variables, test within Stock Synthesis model Richard Methot Carryn de Moor Chris Francis Biological Reference Points Other issues Revisit limit and target reference points, together with proposals of harvest control rules Review results from studies on the diet of sardine predators, including interannual, seasonal and geographic variation in sardine importance in their diets. Data from WGANSA. Published and unpublished information.

5 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in Division IXa (Atlantic Iberian Waters) Stock ane-pore Benchmark Year: 2017 Planned by EG /Agreed by ACOM Stock coordinator Name: Fernando Ramos Stock assessor Name: Fernando Ramos; Andrés Uriarte Data contact Name: Fernando Ramos

6 572 ICES WGHANSA REPORT 2015 Issue Problem/Aim Work needed / possible direction of solution Data needed to be able to do this: are these available / where should these come from? External expertise needed at benchmark Stock identity Providing one management advice for the anchovy in the whole of Division IXa may be inadequate, since survey results and the fishery demonstrate independent dynamics of the anchovy in the northwestern part of Division IXa from the dynamics of the population in Division IXa South. Recent genetic studies suggest separated stocks for anchovy in IXa South (which show more genetic similarities with the Alborán Sea anchovy) from anchovy in the remaining waters in the Division. Portuguese (PELAGO) and Spanish (PELACUS) spring acoustic surveys are combined in a single index of abundance in the qualitative assessment for the whole Division. Spanish (ECOCÁDIZ) summer surveys are used for comparison for the IXa South. The survey relative catchability and implications for their joint or separate use in tuning the assessment should be investigated. To compile information from anchovy in all sub-divisions and in close areas to the boundaries of the Division, such as morphometrics, genetics, parasites, distribution and, any modelling assessing migration taking place between areas will be examined in the benchmark (and summarised prior to it) Published and unpublished information. Experts from ICES Stock Identity Methods Working Group (SIMWG) Tuning series To explore and analyze the results applicable to anchovy from the inter-calibration exercises between the PELACUS/PELAGO surveys in 2008, 2009 and 2011; a dedicated session to discuss the results was a 2011 ToR of WGACEGG. To explore what is the situation for ECOCÁDIZ surveys. To investigate the influence of changes in methodology (e.g. echo-sounder, vessel, fishing gear) and anchovy behaviour and/or depth distribution changes along the survey historical series. Results from 2008, 2009, and 2011 intercalibrations are available from IPMA and IEO and have been reported to WGACEGG. Information on survey methodology and data on anchovy distribution are available from IPMA and IEO databases. Experts on tuning indices. ICES WGACEEG experts. Discards The actual magnitude of discarding

7 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Biological Parameters Assessment method practices in the Division is unknown Catches at age are only available from the Spanish fishery in IXa South (only in 2011 has been provided this kind of data from other sub-divisions, i.e., only when the anchovy abundance was high). Biological parameters (Maturity ogives, weight at age in the stock, etc, are only available for the Spanish part of the IXa South). Natural Mortality is assumed to be equal to the one estimated for Bay of Biscay Anchovy. Alternatives to the current assessment model (qualitative, not analytical) need to be explored. Investigate availability of these data to obtain a consistent data series allowing a further (analytical) assessment. Ditto. Explore different approaches (empirical, etc.) to derive the estimate of Natural Mortality. Test both age-structured and generalised models as well as those ones based on survey data only and for data limited stocks. Forecast method No forecast Dependant on the assessment method. Biological Reference Points Reference points are not defined for this stock and need to be considered. Investigate reference points, together with proposals of harvest control rules Data available (IPMA, IEO data bases), but their availability has to be explored. Ditto. Ditto. Data from WGHANSA. Models available from assessment tools repositories Data from WGHANSA. Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment Experts in DLS for short-lived species or integrated assessment Other issues Compile information on the role of anchovy as a forage fish in the pelagic ecosystem. Understand what environmental issues may drive the fluctuations and intensity of the recruitment pulses in IXa South and western subdivisions. Review results from studies on the diet of anchovy predators, including inter-annual, seasonal and geographic variation in anchovy importance in their diets. Review results from studies on the impact of the environmental forcing in anchovy recruitment Published and unpublished information. Published and unpublished information.

8 574 ICES WGHANSA REPORT Horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in Division IXa (Atlantic Iberian Waters) Stock hom-soth Stock coordinator Gersom Costas Stock assessor Manuela Azevedo Data contact Gersom Costas Issue Problem/Aim Work needed / possible direction of solution Data needed to be able to do this: are these available / where should these come from? External expertise needed at benchmark type of expertise / proposed names Tuning series Portuguese and Spanish bottom trawl surveys are combined in a single index of abundance in the assessment. Combined index is noisy, with strong year-effects. smooth data, use abundance trends data available from bottom-trawl surveys data analysis/modelling Biological Parameters Assessment method Biological Reference Points Use egg abundance estimates as a tuning index in the assessment model Weights-at-age are derived from catch are assumed equal to the weight at age in stock. But in last years show a significant variability in weight at age Short times series catches at age during last benchmark. The data series available for the stock is not defined obtain a reliable egg abundance estimates from the DEPM Explore other sources to obtain weight at age for population more reliable (surveys) To compile catch data since the early 1980s an acceptable assessment is needed / a longer time-series of catch and abundance data should be available data from triennial DEPM surveys data available from acoustic surveys part of the Spanish catch data is available only in paper, should be compiled and saved electronically