Inside the mind of the transport professional

Transcription

1 Inside the mind of the transport professional Alexa Delbosc AITPM 25 October

2 How do we decide what s best for the transport system? 2

3 How do we decide what s best for the transport system? Personal experience Professional judgement Basic principles Evidence 3

4 The naïve experience of the transport novice 4

5 The naïve solutions of the transport novice 5

6 Transport novice unaware of the complexities FHWA Office of Safety Overseas Vote Foundation The Telegraph 6 The Columbian

7 Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated. 7

8 So how do professionals know what to do about the transport system? Personal experience Professional judgement Basic principles Evidence 8

9 Standards and guidelines teach us the basic principles 9

10 but standards don t always work out New rural roundabout in Mackay "The roundabout was designed and built to Australian design standards and the freight industry was carefully considered in designing the upgrade, to ensure the safety of heavy vehicles. 10

11 We also rely on evidence, data and research Milton Court school, Kent 11

12 But in the end, we use our professional experience and judgement 12

13 Does that mean personal experience has no influence on professionals? Personal experience Professional judgement Basic principles Evidence 13

14 Does that mean personal experience has no influence on professionals? Evidence Basic principles Professional judgement Personal experience 14

15 Heuristics: Mental shortcuts that let us make decisions quickly and easily What should I have for breakfast? Should I wear a coat or a jumper? What should I pack in my daughter s lunch? Should I use a bar graph or pie chart in this presentation? Should I drive or take the bus? 15

16 Meet the heuristic: egocentric anchoring 16

17 Meet the heuristic: egocentric anchoring When individuals make judgements about other people, they first draw upon their personal perspective before adjusting their estimate using other information Epley, N., B. Keysar, L. Van Boven and T. Gilovich (2004). "Perspective taking as egocentric anchoring and adjustment." Journal of personality and social psychology 87(3): 327. Rose Law Group Reporter 17

18 Survey of American transport professionals (N=249) Asked them to classify their travel Asked them to estimate travel of average American Ralph, K and Delbosc, A. (2017) 'I m Multimodal, aren t you? How egocentric anchoring biases experts perceptions of travel patterns' Transportation Research Part A, 100:

19 Transport professionals were very different to the US population Transport professionals 19

20 Multi-modal and car-less respondents were more likely to overestimate multi-modality (relative to drivers) Drivers Trekkers Multimodal Car-less Percentage point gap (Estimate-Actual) Estimates by Drivers Estimates by Trekkers Estimates by Multimodals Estimates by Car-less

21 And how does AITPM compare to the rest of Melbourne? 2016 CENSUS JOURNEY TO WORK 74% Greater Melbourne average AITPM 3% 2% 3% 0% 18% 17% 18% 18% 47% CAR (DRIVER OR PASSENGER) PUBLIC TRANSPORT WALK ONLY BICYCLE OTHER 21

22 And how does AITPM compare to the rest of Melbourne? 2016 CENSUS JOURNEY TO WORK 74% Greater Melbourne average Traffic Engineer Transport Planner 0% 3% 2% 3% 0% 0% 9% 9% 17% 18% 36% 36% 45% 45% CAR (DRIVER OR PASSENGER) PUBLIC TRANSPORT WALK ONLY BICYCLE OTHER 22

23 So how did you go? Greater Melbourne area 74% car 17% public transport 3% walk only 2% bicycle 3% other 23

24 Wait a minute, isn t it good to have a bias toward sustainable travel? If we over-estimate sustainable travel, we may underestimate the challenges ahead 24

25 I am not here to tell you that you, personally, are biased 25

26 but if you are, you re in good company 26

27 How can we do a better job of getting out of our head? 27

28 Start by taking the perspective of others Walking in the shoes of others (PTV) Meaningful community consultation 28

29 Thank you Alexa 29