2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved

Transcription

1 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1

2 Futures approach to strategic workforce planning Wilson Wong, Ph.D

3 Today s whistle-stop tour Who is CIPD? What is futures/ horizon scanning? Why futures in strategic planning? Example of strategic workforce planning Distilling the people issues and questions HCM considerations Discussion

4 Championing better work and working lives for more than 100 years 1920 Our first journal is published 1946 Renamed the Institute of Personnel Management (IPM) 1973 We reach 15,000 members 2000 The IPD is granted a Royal Charter and so the CIPD is born 2010 We expand into Asia with a new office in Singapore 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 1913 The Welfare Workers Association is founded at a meeting in Rowntrees in York 1931 We become the Institute of Labour Management with a new journal to match 1937 Our first office outside the UK opened in Ireland 1963 We celebrate our Golden Jubilee The Duke of Edinburgh with Sir Ralph Perring, Lord Mayor of London, and Mr. G. R. Moxon, President of the IPM IPM joins forces with the Institute of Training and Development in 1994 to create the Institute of Personnel and Development 2013 We celebrate our centenary with more than 130,000 members in more than 100 countries

5 Putting the people profession at the heart of change

6 Work matters. People matter. Professionalism matters.

7 The CIPD in numbers Annual Report 2016/17

8 A framework for CIPD s knowledge capital Economy Political and regulatory Insight on Changing Context Work Workforce Workplace HC metrics Bus language of HR Data analytics Business, Commercial Insight, and Analytics Better work and working lives Science of human and organisational behaviour Behavioural science Psychology Neuroscience Values and ethics Systems thinking Technologies HR operating models HR capabilities HR & Learning Processes, Practices, Policies

9 Sources of evidence

10 6 steps

11 Europe is swamped by refugees! What percentage of the world s refugees are located in Germany <2% <1%

12 Refugee population by country of location Jordon Turkey Lebanon Germany United States France Canada United Refugees (% of UNHCR total refugee pop) Kingdom Sources: World Bank and UN Belgium Austria

13 Refugee population by country of location Jordon Lebanon Turkey France Germany Canada Belgium Austria United United States Kingdom Refugees (% of country pop) Refugees (% of total UNHCR refugee pop) Sources: World Bank and UN

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15 How does your brain work? SYSTEM 1 Fast Intuitive/ associative Heuristic/ biases Affective/ emotional SYSTEM 2 Lazy Slow Deliberate Rational

16 Temporal myopia

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19 Solutioneering is the term used to describe the act of working up a solution prior to really understanding the problem that solution is set to solve.

20 What s your question?

21 Example Alternatives Demand Capacity Technology Security Social Cost of energy

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23 Research Questions Research Questions How is 'talent' understood in Singapore? What are the most significant factors shaping the understanding of 'talent today? What are the drivers shaping the context to that understanding of talent in the next 15 years?

24 Research Methodology Three Components 1. Delphi Study 2. Trend Analysis 3. Scenario Building

25 Delphi Technique Questionnaire Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 3 Aug - 13 Aug 28 Sept - 4 Oct 19 Oct - 25 Oct 9 Nov 15 Nov Drivers of change & scenario building Structured communication technique Forecasting method relying on a diverse panel of experts Experts answers in two or more rounds After each round, a summary/ synthesis of experts inputs from that round is provided The aim is to encourage a crude convergence on the important drivers of change

26 Findings

27 What is Talent? Construct of Talent Signals of Talent Ability to learn, evolve and adapt Ability to create and innovate Delivery of results effectively and efficiently: high performing individuals Potential Motivation Personal Intelligence Uniqueness Past experience / track record

28 Trend Data & Drivers Demographics Economic Technology Environment Political Social

29 Delphi Drivers Culture Labour Market Wild Cards Impact of a benign environment High cost of failure Education and calibration for the conventional Complacency and lower risk appetite Economic Development Missed opportunities by home-grown talent due to culture Low unemployment rate Labour/skills shortages Migration rate Sustaining productivity Policy Interventions Policy interventions by the state Conflict and instability in the ASEAN region / Singapore Environmental Drivers including climate change Pandemics A global financial crisis

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31 Implications Evolution of the State Power and Ethics Questions of Fairness Talent Mobility Knowledge and Skills Obsolescence

32 Implications for strategic workforce planning Capability: Mobility; human cloud; data & AI Resilience: Surveillance; privacy; talent selection (academic qualifications?); Relevance: Choices; disintermediation; discontinuities; leadership; where is the value in value chains? Governance: Shifts in paradigm; diversity of assumptions

33 Issue Data & testing Synthesis > Strategy Futures in strategy Corporate conversations Iterative clarification Prioritisation by impact across time horizons Whether actionable Agreement Identify potential drivers of change Source reliable trend datasets Look at historical examples of how drivers interact and the effects and actions Understand the weight of the data on which you rely Build scenarios using the data inputs Include quiet signals and wild cards Test scenarios with stakeholders Distil areas of concern & opportunity that you can respond to Identify red flags and trigger mechanisms Build capability and contingency plans to respond

34 ISO HRM: Workforce Planning Workforce planning: the systematic identification, analysis and planning of organizational needs in terms of people Planning: process of thinking about and organizing the activities required to achieve a desired outcome C a p a b i l i t y; R e s i l i e n c e; R e l e v a n c e; G o v e r n a n c e See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 D & I; PD76006 L & D

35 People data considerations Uniqueness Quality Access Privacy Governance Tine Huus (2015). People Data

36 HCM guiding principles It is possible to estimate and classify value of people as well as cost Fairness and quality in people decisions and investments generate organisational success People data reveals value, cost, fairness, and quality of people (processes) across the talent management life-cycle Human capital metrics attempt to compensate, if not eliminate, biases and mistakes in human judgment Huus, T. People Data: How to use and apply HCM in your company. 2015

37 ISO HRM: Human capital reporting HC: The cumulative knowledge, skills and abilities of an organization s people and the impact on an organization s long-term performance, as well as the competitive advantages from optimizing organization outcomes. HC Measurement: Enables an organization to manage one of its most critical resources and risks. Makes evident the contribution of your human capital. Human Governance; Measuring intangibles; Data-driven management See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 Diversity & Inclusion; PD76006 Learning & Development

38 The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge.

39 Thank you. Thank Head of Insight & Futures

40 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1