DRAFT TOWN OF MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "DRAFT TOWN OF MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY"

Transcription

1 APPENDIX 1 PD DRAFT TOWN OF MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT STUDY PHASE 2 ANALYSES AND RECOMMENDATIONS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 REPORT SUMMARY The Town of Milton Employment Land Needs Assessment Study was commenced in August of MHBC and Watson & Associates were jointly retained to undertake the study and develop a comprehensive strategy to guide the designation and development of urban employment lands to In particular, the study focused on how to address employment land needs to better meet Milton s employment objectives. WHAT IS THE ISSUE? 1. Planning for employment lands has become an increasingly complex process as there is a continual need to balance Provincial and Regional policy requirements, local economic development objectives and market conditions. The process must also consider overall growth, infrastructure phasing and development capacity. Planning for employment lands has become a top down process where municipalities are trying to respond to market demand within a regulatory system that constrains and limits their ability to respond. 2. The initial work undertaken by the Town to establish its employment land needs identified two issues: the Town is running out of employment land and the available land supply is not translating into the type of employment that generates significant jobs. 3. The Employment Land Needs Assessment is an important study by the Town as it has focused on addressing these issues through an assessment of the Town s employment land supply and needs, and is recommending how much and where land should be provided for employment uses, as well as strategies to maximize the Town s ability to maintain its long term goal for job creation. WHAT DID THE STUDY ASSESS? 4. Phase 1 of the study focused on the current market context for Milton s employment lands and trends at the Provincial, Regional and local level. Halton s economic growth potential is largely tied to the success of the G.T.H.A. as a whole. Over the next 25 years, the G.T.H.A population and employment base is forecast to steadily increase. i

3 Empoloyment Forecast Distribution Employment Forecasting Process HALTON REGION PROVINCIAL GROWTH PLAN TOWN OF MILTON Industrial & Business Park 5. Planning for employment in Ontario has become a top down regulatory process within which the Trafalgar Town must respond. It is critical within this process to ensure that Milton s land budget exercise not only Derry Green MILTON UGAbut informs determines required land needs the Region and provides for employment lands at locations Lands Corporate with flexible opportunities to meet the Business Town s local objectives for quality and timely development. As Park population and employment forecasts are filtered down from the Province to the Region to the Town, the TownMilton must strategically determine where and how best to accommodate its employment growth. Education Village 4. While Milton Council has maintained a commitment and economic development objective to maintain its employment levels towards a targeted job activity rate of 1 job for every two residents, Milton s CN employment land supply has been absorbed predominantly by its strong manufacturing, logistics Lands Future Strategic and transportation sector. Due to changes in the economy and technology, employment from Employment Area Future Strategic the manufacturing, logistics and transportation sectors has been increasingly labour-efficient and Employment Area land expansive. 407 OCTOBER 2016 DRAFT PHASE 2 REPORT MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT ii

4 Photo of expert panel event from November Employment land experts and key stakeholders engaged through the study reinforced the need for Milton to balance the protection of its prime employment areas, provide newly serviced lands in a timely manner to address market needs, and recognize the importance of the logistics industry in Milton. They also advised of the importance of strategically planning employment areas that accommodate Milton s human capital and ensure that its land supply and planning policies accommodate the interests of small and medium sized businesses and provide investment opportunities to enable these businesses to grow. ASSESSMENT OF MILTON S EMPLOYMENT LANDS 6. Milton s current and planned employment land supply provides for a range of industrial and business park areas at strategic locations focused around Highway 401 as well as southwest Milton. Future strategic lands are identified along the Highway 401 and 407 corridors. 7. As part of the study, Milton s current and future land supply was assessed for its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges. The assessment found that: a. Milton s employment areas generally have good access and exposure to major 400-series highways and arterial roads which is a key requirement for most sectors; b. Major G.T.H.A. transportation infrastructure is located in close proximity to the Town of Milton, including the Pearson International Airport, CN and CP rail facilities which will continue to fuel demand for future growth in industrial related sectors; c. GO Transit service in Milton provides regional transit connectivity west and east of the Town which is a major driver for knowledge-based and office sectors; d. Milton is anticipated to continue to experience strong growth which will further develop its labour market. This is critical in attracting development from knowledge-based and office sectors. iii

5 Town of Milton Existing, Planned and Future Strategic Employment Areas e. Milton has experienced strong growth in the distribution and logistics sector and going forward this will likely continue given the supply of large parcels with excellent accessibility. This includes remaining sites in the Milton 401 Industrial/ Business Park, within Derry Green Corporate Business Park, and the Milton 401 Industrial/Business Park Expansion areas. f. Derry Green Corporate Business Park, while planned for a range of employment uses, has not yet attracted a similar range of employment development. g. The future development of the Milton Education Village and a possible satellite university campus will be a major catalyst in the development of an innovation district that will further support and accommodate the Town s growth in knowledge-based sectors. h. The Southwest Milton lands have strong potential to develop as a prestige employment area accommodating a broader range of employment uses. OCTOBER 2016 DRAFT PHASE 2 REPORT MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT iv

6 10. The assessment work completed in the Study also analyzed lands for potential conversion from employment to non-employment uses. The analysis was undertaken in accordance with policy requirements aimed at protecting employment lands as well as criteria reflecting the local economy and local needs of the Town. Only the previously supported Meritor Suspension Systems Company (MSSC) site on Steeles Avenue is recommended for conversion. 11. Opportunities for increased employment were also assessed through a review of opportunities for intensification within employment designated land areas. There is limited potential for area and building retrofit in Milton s employment areas based on the exiting uses and conditions within the existing employment areas. There are however some areas along Steeles Avenue that may provide for increased employment opportunities. There are opportunities for additional job creation through intensification of existing mixed use areas including Downtown Milton. While not within an Employment Area as defined by policy, these areas were reviewed and assessed and have been the subject of current studies which identify many potential infill and redevelopment sites. 12. The study also identified Milton s opportunity to expand the potential for employment within future strategic employment areas that are designated but yet to be planned. The Trafalgar & Derry Road node is one area that has the potential to create opportunities similar to that which have been planned and are to be further studied in the Milton Education Village. As a location with the potential for a new GO Station, the Trafalgar & Derry Road node should be considered as a prime opportunity to create a mixed use node which is inclusive of employment uses. This node should be distinctive and offer a complete employment community approach. This area, as recommended in the earlier MCR work, should be a priority for the next planned employment area through the designation of the lands from Future Strategic Employment to Regional Node - Special Policy Area. v

7 EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECAST 13. Between 2011 and 2016, Milton s share of total employment within Halton Region has gradually increased from 14% to 15%. It is anticipated that the Town s share of the total employment growth within Halton Region will increase significantly over the forecast period, increasing to 26% by 2031 and 32% by Of the Region s area municipalities, Milton is expected to account for the largest share of Halton Region s employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period. 14. Two long-term employment forecasts were developed for the study a Reference Scenario and an Alternative Scenario. The Reference Scenario uses the Region s Best Planning Estimates to calculate an employment forecast for Milton. The Alternative Scenario reflects employment market trends and is more grounded to reflect Milton s current and future economic context. Town of Milton Employment Forecast Reference vs. Alternative Scenario 200, , , , ,000 Total Employment 120,000 80,000 54, , ,300 81,000 72, ,750 40,000 22,175 27,600 32,625 38,650 50, Year Alternative Forecast Reference Forecast Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. OCTOBER 2016 DRAFT PHASE 2 REPORT MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT vi

8 15. The long-term employment forecast, utilizing the Alternative Scenario, anticipates employment land need requirements based on the consideration of: a. The estimated share of employment growth on employment lands by major employment sector (industrial, commercial, institutional); b. Existing and forecast density (i.e. jobs/net hectare) of employment on employment lands; c. Historical and forecast industrial land employment absorption by employment type (i.e. general vs. prestige) and sector (i.e. manufacturing, warehousing and distribution, office commercial, etc.); and, d. The amount of long-term net employment lands currently designated for employment uses but currently not developed (vacant) within the Town of Milton. 16. Over the 2016 to 2041 planning horizon, Milton is forecasted to add a total of approximately 49,010 jobs on employment lands of which 2,450 (5%) are anticipated to be accommodated through intensification and 46,560 are expected to be accommodated on vacant employment lands. Over the 2016 to 2036 period, 36,715 jobs are forecast to be accommodated on vacant employment lands. 17. Based on the land needs analysis completed using the alternative scenario, a minimum of 491 net ha (1,213 net acres) of additional designated vacant employment land is required to accommodate forecasted employment growth to Town of Milton Employment Land Need to 2041 based on Designated and Planned Growth Areas Employment Land Supply vii

9 KEY STUDY FINDING 18. The work undertaken by this study has confirmed the need for Milton to provide a land supply for employment uses that will meet its current and future needs. This includes providing lands to continue to meet the needs of the logistics sector. However, what is critical to Milton s ability to actually increase its job activity rate is for the Town to ensure the current and future land supply provides those attributes and opportunities that will attract knowledge-based and more employment intensive development. Employment Land Needs Current to 2041 Town of Milton Forecast Employment Land Demand, 2016 to 2041 Developed Employment Areas Land Needs in Designated and Planned Areas Land Needs in Future Strategic Employment Areas 987 hectares 491 hectares Priority Areas 401 Southwest Milton Milton Education Village Future Strategic Employment Area Derry Green Corporate Business Park Future Strategic Employment Area Future Strategic Employment Area 407 OCTOBER 2016 DRAFT PHASE 2 REPORT MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT viii

10 19. While it is recognized that some of that future development will come as Milton evolves and builds out and older areas begin to intensify and redevelop, a shift in employment planning also needs to occur. This shift needs to better provide for employment land that serves more than just industries and facilities. It needs to serve employees, be well connected and served by transit and meet the needs of smaller, evolving businesses that can accommodate knowledge based sectors. It needs to provide for better quality lands to attract quality jobs. It needs to ensure employment lands provide for a range of opportunities that are flexible to accommodate current and future needs recognizing the supply of lands is not infinite. 20. The Town should strategically designate these lands together with a number of policy amendments to ensure the maintenance and protection of its existing industrial employment areas, accommodation of future logistics sector land needs, the creation of investment opportunities for a broader range of employment uses to accommodate small and medium sized employment intensive businesses, and strategically identifying key centers for special employment centers. 21. The Town needs to reinforce its approach to employment planning that protects future lands with the greatest flexibility for phasing and development. The Town s employment lands must be reflective of more than just a land budget exercise, the Town needs to ensure it creates locations for future development and protects them. Constraining land supply and opportunity within a restrictive regulatory process can undermine the planned function of employment areas and compromise municipal planning objectives. The shift in policies is needed to allow the Town to respond when lands do not match market demand. Otherwise the Town will face a decade of planning processes only to see a generation of jobs go elsewhere. Milton s policies must provide maximum flexibility to capture investment opportunities. 22. The recent provincial plan review is recommending changes to accommodate a shift in planning with a distinction between prime employment areas and general employment areas that need to be more employee-focused with a mix and range of uses and services. The Town must strategically consider a direction that not only revises its policies for employment lands by allowing for more employee supportive uses at nodal locations, but also introduces special policy areas that facilitate knowledge based employment centres and innovation districts with performance based policies and a broader mix of uses. ix

11 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 23. To meet its employment land needs to 2041, the Town needs to ensure it can supply a total of 1,478 net hectares of employment land. The Town currently has a supply of 987 hectares designated and in planned growth areas, representing a shortfall of 209 ha between 2016 and 2036 and a shortfall of 491 ha between 2016 and In order to meet demand in 2041 the Town needs to designate approximately 35% of its inventory of Future Strategic Employment Areas. 25. In designating new employment lands the Town should focus on areas that can strategically provide for more employee centered districts with locational advantages and minimized constraints. 26. To advance development in existing employment areas, the Town should update its current policies to align with the evolving Provincial directions which defined prime employment areas and general employment areas. Prime employment areas should be focused on Milton s historical industrial areas with the maintenance of policies to protect the operations and functions within these areas. Policies for the general employment areas should be updated to provide for more employment supportive uses at strategic locations and to advance opportunities for higher density forms of employment within the Milton Education Village. 27. The conversion of current employment designated lands should be limited to those sites previously supported through OPA 31 including the Meritor lands. 28. A broader range of land uses should continue to be provided within Milton s mixed use areas to support job creation opportunities. 29. The designation of additional employment lands to meet Milton s longer term needs should focus on the creation of special employment nodes/ districts which shifts the creation of large tracts for traditional employment land uses to smaller centers located at distinct, competitive locations with access to transit and amenities and with opportunities for a mix of uses based on performance targets for higher density employment. 30. Milton remains in an excellent position to build on its existing success due to its economic development activity and competitive advantage and the opportunity to create new investment opportunities to expand its knowledge based employment sectors within future planned areas. OCTOBER 2016 DRAFT PHASE 2 REPORT MILTON EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS ASSESSMENT x