REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY

Transcription

1 DECEMBER 2018 REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY

2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TIP would like to thank the following individuals and organizations for their participation in this planning process. Rich Fletcher South Carolina I-77 Alliance Karlisa Dean Chester County Economic Development Chris Finn South Carolina I-77 Alliance Ty Davenport Fairfield County Economic Development Jamie Gilbert Lancaster County Economic Development Jeff Ruble Richland County Economic Development David Swenson York County Economic Development TIP STRATEGIES, INC., is a privately held Austin and Seattle based economic development consulting firm committed to providing quality solutions for public and private sector clients. Established in 1995, the firm's primary focus is economic development strategic planning. CONSULTING TEAM CONTACT Tom Stellman President & CEO Caroline Alexander Senior Consultant 2905 San Gabriel St., Suite 309 Austin, TX PH: Allison Long Analyst REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE i

3 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 KEY FINDINGS... 1 REGIONAL WORKFORCE ASSESSMENT... 3 WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS... 4 LABOR AVAILABILITY... 7 MIGRATION PATTERNS LABOR MOBILITY OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE DEMAND DRIVERS WORKFORCE-TARGET INDUSTRY ALIGNMENT APPENDIX 1. TARGET DEFINITIONS APPENDIX 2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS DATA SOURCES REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE ii

4 INTRODUCTION The South Carolina I-77 Alliance region consists of York, Lancaster, Chester, Fairfield, and Richland Counties. The region added more than 50,000 jobs between 2012 and 2017, outperforming the US in terms of job growth in each of the last 6 years. Lodging, restaurants, and bars; healthcare; professional services; and construction have led this growth. Even with this success, the region has continued its commitment to economic development and attracting new investment to the region as a driver of sustained growth and economic prosperity. Although labor has long been a consideration of corporate site location decisions, in the past few years the focus has been on the availability of skilled labor rather than the cost of labor. As a result, regions must understand the skills and strengths of their workforce and labor market to compete successfully for corporate investment. In the fall of 2018, the South Carolina I-77 Alliance hired TIP Strategies to assess and profile the region s workforce and examine the alignment of the region s workforce with the I-77 Alliance target industries. The resulting study documents the depth and breadth of the regional workforce, highlights its strengths, and identifies key challenges that must be addressed to maintain the region s competitive edge. KEY FINDINGS Distinct and expansive laborsheds. As a region that is situated on the I-77 corridor between Charlotte, North Carolina, and Columbia, South Carolina, the north and south sides of the region have distinct laborsheds. The northern counties York, Lancaster, and Chester - draw from a laborshed that includes Mecklenburg, Union, and Gaston Counties in North Carolina and Kershaw County in South Carolina. The north laborshed has a civilian labor force of 1.3 million. The southern counties Fairfield and Richland draw from a laborshed that also extends to Mecklenburg County and draws from Kershaw, Lexington, Calhoun, Orangeburg, and Newberry Counties in South Carolina. The south laborshed has a civilian labor force of about 1.2 million. Highly educated and young. The I-77 Alliance region has a highly educated labor force, with 32 percent of the population earning a bachelor s degree or higher. In addition, the senior age cohort (age 65+) represents a smaller share of the population than in the US overall, signifying the relative youth of the regional labor force. Furthermore, the labor force participation rate in the region is demonstrative of a strong work ethic. Destination for talent. The region has experienced healthy population growth over the last 10 years. Migration patterns demonstrate that the region is a destination for talent with high flows of migrants to York County and Lancaster County in South Carolina. Regional employers agreed that attracting talent to the region to fill open positions is relatively easy. Mobile workforce. The region as a whole is a net importer of labor. However, more than 130,000 workers commute outside the region to work. Transportation & warehousing, management of companies & enterprises, and manufacturing are the three sectors with the largest outflow of workers, on net, out of the five-county region. The largest destination for the region s commuters outside the five counties is Charlotte. Strong middle-skill workforce. The occupational structure of the region is reflective of its strong manufacturing sector and growing healthcare sector. Employers in the region note the region s history in manufacturing as one of its greatest workforce strengths. Affordable labor costs. The regional median hourly wage rates compare well to the nation s. Almost all the median hourly wages for major occupational groups are at or below the US median. The vast majority of the regional REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 1

5 median hourly wage rates for the high-demand occupations are also at or below the US median. Robust network of education and training institutions. Within the region and surrounding communities are 33 colleges and universities that graduate about 30,000 students each year. The corridor is anchored by the University of South Carolina on the south end and the University of North Carolina at Charlotte to the north. York Technical College and Midlands Technical College are the primary 2-year institutions that service the area. Access to veterans. With more than 800 soldiers separating from service annually and 46,000 retirees and family members served, Fort Jackson in Columbia, South Carolina, represents another source of skilled workers. Many of these workers have skills related to office and administrative functions, maintenance and repair, technical healthcare, and transportation and material moving. CHALLENGES The tightening labor market. The civilian labor force of the region has grown by almost 30,000 over the last 5 years while the number of jobs increased by 43,000. Unemployment declined to 4.3 percent in 2017 and continued to decline in This has led to a tightening of the labor market. In certain occupations, upward pressure on wages appear to be mounting. In production occupations, in particular, the regional median hourly wages for certain specialized machine workers or assemblers is more than 10 percent higher than the US median. Continuing demand for more workers. Over the next 5 years, the region is expected to add more than 25,000 new jobs. Factoring in replacement positions, the region is expected to have almost 250,000 openings. Thirty-six percent of the openings will be for middle-skill occupations and 26 percent for high-skill occupations. A number of the employers in the region commented on the growing difficulty of finding local talent. Employability. With the tightening of the labor market, the challenge that the employers voiced most often was a lack of applicants with basic employability attributes passing a drug test and/or criminal background check and following basic workplace etiquette. This challenge is not unique to the region it is a national challenge. Aging workforce. Although the overall population is fairly young, more than 20 percent of workers are aged 55 and older. This near-term wave of retirees means that employers must not only fill today s openings but also plan for the replacement of tenured individuals in their firms. WORKFORCE-TARGET INDUSTRY ALIGNMENT The industry-workforce alignment analysis demonstrated that the regional labor market and its laborshed areas should be able to accommodate growth in the target industries. However, if unemployment continues to decline, competition among employers for skilled workers will likely increase. As mentioned, the rising wages in some of the more specialized production occupations could indicate a need for shoring up the pipeline of local talent that feeds those occupations. Bringing employers together to raise awareness among potential employees of their future hiring needs could help accomplish this. CONCLUSION The South Carolina I-77 Alliance region has access to a large pool of skilled labor. As a destination for talent with a high-quality local workforce, the region is well positioned to continue its sustained growth. However, this continued success will likely exacerbate some of the workforce challenges that employers in the region currently face. While this phenomenon is not unique to the I-77 Alliance region, those regions that come together to address these workforce challenges collectively will likely be more competitive in the future. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 2

6 REGIONAL WORKFORCE ASSESSMENT REGIONAL WORKFORCE ASSESSMENT REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 3

7 WORKFORCE CHARACTERISTICS The South Carolina I-77 Alliance covers the five-county region along Interstate 77 between Charlotte, North Carolina, and Columbia, South Carolina. The region includes York, Chester, Fairfield, Richland, and Lancaster Counties. Between 2010 and 2017, the five-county region grew by more than 81,200 residents, an increase of 11 percent. By 2025, the population in the region is expected to reach almost 890,000. Regional population growth has been primarily driven by domestic migration. Unlike other demographic trends, which tend to shift incrementally, domestic migration tends to be much more volatile, often correlating with activities that are cyclical in nature, such as job growth and housing construction. FIGURE 1. REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS ESTIMATES ( ) AND PROJECTION (2025) in thousands 1, FIGURE 2. COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE Immigration Domestic migration Natural increase (births minus deaths) 16,000 12,000 8, , Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates program projection from Moody s Analytics. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 4

8 FIGURE 3. COMPARATIVE LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW 2017 ANNUAL AVERAGES (IN THOUSANDS) The I-77 Alliance region has a civilian labor force of approximately 396,000. At 4.3 percent, the 2017 average unemployment rate was in line with both state and national numbers. GEOGRAPHY CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE US 160, ,337 6, % South Carolina 2,313 2, % I-77 Alliance % Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (state and local), Current Population Survey (national). in thousands FIGURE 4. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Between 2010 and 2017, the civilian labor force in the five-county region grew from 359,900 to 396,200, an increase of just over 36,000 workers or 10 percent. This growth rate was significantly higher than that of the state (7.3 percent) and the nation (4.2 percent) over the same period Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% I-77 Alliance South Carolina US % FIGURE 5. ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, The unemployment rate in the I-77 Alliance region has largely mirrored the state rate for much of the last two decades. Prior to 2003, the state and the region tracked the national unemployment rate fairly closely. However, since that time, both the region and South Carolina have exceeded the national unemployment rate, with the largest gap seen during the Great Recession ( ), when average unemployment in the region surpassed the nation by nearly 3 points. This gap has closed in recent years. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (state and local), Current Population Survey (national). REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 5

9 FIGURE 6. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE POPULATION AGE 16+ Labor force participation is an important component of economic growth. Rates are influenced by a range of demographic factors and economic conditions. Labor force participation rates in the region are similar to the US, at roughly 63 percent. However, when viewed by gender, lower rates by males are offset by slightly higher rates of participation by women. Sixty-six percent of males in the I-77 Alliance region participate in the labor force compared to 68 percent of males nationally. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year averages for the period percent of pop. 16+ in the labor force I-77 Alliance Male Female Total South Carolina United States I-77 Alliance South Carolina United States < High School High School or GED Some College Bachelor's or Higher 12% 14% 13% 26% 29% 28% 30% 30% 29% 32% 26% 30% FIGURE 7. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT POPULATION AGE 25+ The I-77 Alliance region has high levels of educational attainment relative to the state and the US. Thirty-two percent of the region s adult population has earned a bachelor s degree or higher, compared with just 26 percent of South Carolina residents age 25+ years. Only 38 percent of the I-77 Alliance population has a high school diploma or less, which is considerably lower than the state (43 percent) and the nation (41 percent). The share of workers with some college is similar across the three geographies. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year averages for the period FIGURE 8. AGE DISTRIBUTION The I-77 Alliance region s age structure mirrors the US, with only minor differences. The region s age distribution does vary from that of the state in significant ways, however. First, seniors comprise a smaller share of the region s total population (13 percent compared to 16 percent of the state). Second, the region has a larger share of young adults (defined as age 20 to 34) than either the state or the US. The presence of young adults is likely a reflection of the urban areas and the higher education assets encompassed by the five-county region. I-77 Alliance South Carolina Youth (0-19) Young adults (20-34) Experienced working age (35-64) Seniors (65+) 26% 25% 22% 20% 38% 39% 13% 16% Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year averages for the period United States 26% 21% 39% 14% REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 6

10 LABOR AVAILABILITY A comparison of the number of jobs by occupation in the five-county region with the estimated number of residents who work in the occupation suggests a high level of outbound commuting. Office & administrative support occupations have the largest imbalance, resulting in as many as 7,000 people commuting outside the region to work in these positions. Only farming, fishing, & forestry; production; and transportation & material moving occupations have more jobs than workers, suggesting that the region imports workers in these professions. FIGURE 9. ESTIMATED WORKFORCE AVAILABILITY BY OCCUPATION, 2017 JOBS IN THE FIVE-COUNTY REGION RELATIVE TO RESIDENTS WHO WORK IN THE OCCUPATION SOC Code Description Jobs in the Region Residents Working in the Occupation Potential available workforce 43 Office & Administrative Support 58,033 64,997 +6, Business & Financial Operations 19,318 22,181 +2, Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 20,020 22,467 +2, Protective Service 9,372 11,726 +2, Education, Training, & Library 20,227 21,987 +1, Management 18,457 20,053 +1, Community & Social Service 6,626 8,085 +1, Legal 3,259 4,487 +1, Construction & Extraction 13,678 14,780 +1, Food Preparation & Serving Related 29,580 30,643 +1, Personal Care & Service 13,256 14, Computer & Mathematical 9,724 10, Architecture & Engineering 6,184 6, Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media 5,530 6, Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 15,604 16, Healthcare Support 9,221 9, Life, Physical, & Social Science 2,110 2, Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 13,166 13, Sales & Related 37,304 37, Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 1,386 1, Production 27,226 24,955-2, Transportation & Material Moving 25,957 23,001-2,956 Source: Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. Notes: Emsi s resident worker series uses federal data to estimate employment by occupation based on place of residence. A comparison of resident worker data to traditional employment numbers (which are compiled by place of employment) suggests the size of the potential available workforce for a given occupation. SOC is the Standard Occupational Classification system, used by federal agencies to classify occupational categories. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 7

11 Construction & extraction occupations and office & administrative support positions make up the greatest share of unemployed workers in the region, representing 18 percent and 13 percent of the total, respectively (compared with 16 percent and 11 percent nationally). Other occupations that have a higher proportion of unemployment in the I-77 Alliance region relative to the US include computer & mathematical occupations (which comprise 8 percent of unemployment regionally versus just 2 percent nationally) and architecture & engineering (estimated at 4 percent of the region s total unemployed, compared with 1 percent of unemployed workers in the US). FIGURE 10. UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, 2017 I-77 ALLIANCE REGION (INCLUDING SHARE OF TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT FOR REGION AND US) SOC DESCRIPTION UNEMPLOYED % OF TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT I-77 ALLIANCE REGION 47 Construction & Extraction 3,543 18% 16% 43 Office & Administrative Support 2,606 13% 11% 11 Management 1,903 9% 8% 15 Computer & Mathematical 1,652 8% 2% 41 Sales & Related 1,341 7% 7% 51 Production 1,280 6% 8% 13 Business & Financial Operations 1,187 6% 3% 17 Architecture & Engineering 787 4% 1% 35 Food Preparation & Serving Related 762 4% 6% 31 Healthcare Support 669 3% 3% 49 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 604 3% 4% 53 Transportation & Material Moving 530 3% 8% 27 Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media 513 3% 2% 37 Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 473 2% 5% 33 Protective Service 471 2% 1% 23 Legal 218 1% 0% 25 Education, Training, & Library 191 1% 2% 29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 183 1% 2% 39 Personal Care & Service 140 1% 2% 21 Community & Social Service 33 0% 1% 19 Life, Physical, & Social Science 10 0% 1% 45 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry <10 0% 2% Sources: Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed; US Bureau of Labor Statistics. US REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 8

12 Underemployment, in this context, measures the number of workers with four-year degrees or higher who are employed in occupations that do not require a four-year degree. In the I-77 Alliance region, there are nearly 50,000 workers who are underemployed. About 19,000 of these workers are in low-skill occupations and 22,000 are in middle-skill occupations. The occupational category with the largest number of underemployed workers is office & administrative support, with almost 13,000 workers. Sales & related occupations are the second largest category of underemployed workers. FIGURE 11. OCCUPATIONS BY UNDEREMPLOYMENT, 2017 I-77 ALLIANCE REGION Office & Administrative Support Sales & Related Food Preparation & Serving Related Protective Service Management Personal Care & Service Business & Financial Operations Production Transportation & Material Moving Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media Computer & Mathematical Healthcare Support Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Construction & Extraction Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Legal Education, Training, & Library Architecture & Engineering Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Life, Physical, & Social Science 3,198 2,961 2,719 2,379 2,284 1,718 1,560 1,428 1,400 1,296 1,127 1, ,514 12,845 Source: JobsEQ Note: Underemployment is measured as the number of workers with four-year degrees or higher who are employed in occupations that do not require a four-year degree. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 9

13 EDUCATION AND TRAINING The I-77 Alliance region is home to 12 higher education institutions. The largest of these is the University of South Carolina (USC) in Columbia. The region is served by two technical colleges: York Technical College (which serves York and Chester Counties) and Midlands Technical College (which serves Richland, Fairfield, and Lexington Counties). In addition, there are 21 institutions in counties that border the region, including the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and multiple campuses of the USC system. FIGURE 12. SELECTED HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS I-77 ALLIANCE REGION AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INSTITUTION NAME COUNTY TYPE ENROLLMENT I-77 ALLIANCE REGION University of South Carolina Richland Public, 4+ years 34,731 Winthrop University York Public, 4+ years 6,073 Midlands Technical College - Richland Richland Public, at least 2 but <4 years 5,551 York Technical College York Public, at least 2 but <4 years 4,338 Benedict College Richland Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 2,090 University of South Carolina - Lancaster Lancaster Public, at least 2 but <4 years 1,910 Columbia College Richland Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 1,514 Columbia International University Richland Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 966 Allen University Richland Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 590 York Technical College - Chester Chester Public, at least 2 but <4 years 200 Clinton College York Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 170 Midlands Technical College - Fairfield Fairfield Public, at least 2 but <4 years 16 NEIGHBORING COUNTIES University of North Carolina at Charlotte Mecklenburg Public, 4+ years 29,317 Central Piedmont Community College Mecklenburg Public, at least 2 but <4 years 19,100 Gaston College - Gaston Gaston Public, at least 2 but <4 years 5,172 Midlands Technical College - Lexington Lexington Public, at least 2 but <4 years 5,059 Gardner-Webb University Cleveland Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 3,818 Central Carolina Technical College Sumter Public, at least 2 but <4 years 3,720 Wingate University Union Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 3,620 South Carolina State University Orangeburg Public, 4+ years 2,942 Cleveland Community College Cleveland Public, at least 2 but <4 years 2,700 Limestone College Cherokee Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 2,661 Queens University of Charlotte Mecklenburg Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 2,507 Orangeburg Calhoun Technical College Orangeburg Public, at least 2 but <4 years 2,479 Claflin University Orangeburg Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 2,129 Davidson College Mecklenburg Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 1,810 Belmont Abbey College Gaston Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 1,555 Johnson C Smith University Mecklenburg Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 1,483 Newberry College Newberry Private not-for-profit, 4 or more years 1,181 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Survey. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 10

14 FIGURE 12. SELECTED HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS (CONTINUED) I-77 ALLIANCE REGION AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES INSTITUTION NAME COUNTY TYPE ENROLLMENT Northeastern Technical College Chesterfield Public, at least 2 but <4 years 1,063 University of South Carolina - Sumter Sumter Public, at least 2 but <4 years 1,002 University of South Carolina - Union Union Public, at least 2 but <4 years 903 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Survey. To illustrate the supply of graduates in the region, data on awards granted for credit by the institutions shown in Figure 12 (previous page) were analyzed. Over the past 3 years, these institutions have graduated between 30,000 and 34,000 students annually. Roughly one-half of these students earned a bachelor s degree each year. Approximately one in three awards granted by the institutions analyzed were awards of 2 years or less. Between 16 percent and 18 percent of completions reported each year were advanced degrees. FIGURE 13. DISTRIBUTION OF FOR-CREDIT COMPLETIONS BY AWARD LEVEL FOR-CREDIT COMPLETIONS BY SELECTED INSTITUTIONS FOR 3 MOST RECENT ACADEMIC YEARS 18% 18% 19% Adanced degree 51% 50% 51% Bachelor's degree Associate's degree 17% 17% 16% Award of <2 academic years 14% 15% 13% 2015 (n=32, (n=34,036) 2017 (n=34,008) Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). ABOUT IPEDS DATA Under the Higher Education Act of 1965, every college, university, and vocational or technical institution that participates in federal financial student aid programs (such as Pell Grants or federally backed student loans) is required to report annually to the US Department of Education on a range of indicators. Data are collected through a system of interrelated surveys and are made available through the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Each fall, institutions report the number of awards conferred for credit by field of study (as defined by Classification of Instructional Programs or CIP code), by degree (associate, bachelor s, master s, doctoral, and postsecondary certificates), and by the race or ethnicity and gender of the recipient. These data are referred to as completions. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 11

15 By far, the most popular fields of study are liberal arts and business. The popular fields of study track to many of the high-demand occupations, including nursing, financial managers and analysts, patrol officers, and teachers. FIGURE LARGEST FIELDS OF STUDY, 2017 RANKED BY AVERAGE NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS, ALL AWARD LEVELS Associate's degree or less Bachelor's degree Graduate degree Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies ( ) 2,839 Business Administration & Management ( ) 321 1, Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse ( ) Biology/Biological Sciences ( ) 857 Finance ( ) 842 Social Work ( ) Accounting ( ) Psychology ( ) Marketing/Marketing Management ( ) Criminal Justice/Safety Studies ( ) Computer Science ( ) Educational Leadership and Admin. ( ) Information Technology ( ) Political Science and Government ( ) Mechanical Engineering ( ) Criminal Justice/Law Enforcement Admin. ( ) Speech Communication and Rhetoric (9.0101) Early Childhood Education and Teaching (13.121) English Language and Literature ( ) Sociology ( ) Elementary Education and Teaching ( ) Sport and Fitness Admin./Management ( ) History ( ) Exercise Physiology ( ) Public Health, Other ( ) Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Notes: IPEDS data include only schools eligible to participate in federal financial aid programs. Numbers shown include first and second majors. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 12

16 MILITARY PERSONNEL PROFILE Fort Jackson serves as the US Army s main production center for Basic Combat Training (BCT), with more than 48,000 personnel going through basic training at the post each year. This number amounts to 50 percent of all recruits and 60 percent of women entering the Army annually. An additional 12,000 soldiers complete Advanced Individual Training (AIT) at Fort Jackson. AIT schools provide hands-on training in specific career fields for those who have completed basic training. Housing units (privatized) 850 Fort Jackson is also host to several schools, in addition to BCT and AIT. These include the Drill Sergeant School, (which trains all active and reserve instructors), the Soldier Support Institute (created to grow the number of leaders in human resource and financial management), Armed Forces Students (annual) Acres Source: Fort Jackson website. 10,000 52,000 Army Chaplaincy Center, and the National Center for Credibility Assessment (previously known as the Department of Defense Polygraph Institute). An additional 10,000 students attend these and other courses on the post annually. MILITARY EXITS FIGURE 15. FORT JACKSON SNAPSHOT ASSET # Active duty personnel 3,500 Family members 12,000 Civilians 3,500 Retirees & family supported 46,000 With more than 800 soldiers separating from service annually through Fort Jackson and 46,000 retirees and family members in the region, the post represents a source of skilled workers. Information about military personnel separating from service in the state is captured as part of the Transition Assistance Program (TAP). TAP consists of a series of workshops designed to assist military personnel in transitioning to civilian careers. Service members attending TAP workshops are typically scheduled to leave active duty service within six months. As part of their out-processing, a one-page contact form solicits basic information from participants, including military occupation code, years of service, and intent to remain in the state after separation. Data for the most recent period available suggest that almost one-third of military personnel intend to remain in the state. Another 25 percent (one in four) are undecided. Leveraging this pool of labor should be a priority. FIGURE 16. MILITARY EXITS IN THE I-77 ALLIANCE REGION, FY 2016 BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 54% 19% 10% 9% 7% Remaining Groups Office & Admin. Support Installation, Maint., & Repair Healthcare Practitioners & Tech. Transportation & Material Moving Sources: Chmura Economics & Analytics, TIP Strategies. Note: Does not include unclassified exits. Chmura Economics & Analytics translates data on military exits into its civilian occupational classification equivalent. Data on military exits in fiscal year 2016 in the five-county region is used to help illustrate the skill sets of this potential workforce. Of the roughly 675 personnel who exited the military in the five-county region during the period, office and administrative support occupations (SOC ) represents the largest group of occupations, accounting for 19 percent of the total (Figure 16). Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (SOC ) is the next largest group of exits in the region, with 10 percent of exits. The other two industry groups that account for the majority REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 13

17 of military exits are healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (SOC ) and transportation and material moving occupations (SOC ), with roughly 9 percent and 7 percent of all exits, respectively. Detailed occupation data is provided in Figure 17. Of the roughly 675 military exits reported in the Chmura Economics & Analytics data, nearly 1 in 10 had skills that most closely matched human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping (SOC ), a position that employed 480 people in the I-77 Alliance region. Another 8 percent of exits had skills that closely matched stock clerks and order fillers (SOC ), an occupation that represented nearly 4,500 jobs in the five-county region in FIGURE 17. MILITARY EXITS BY DETAILED OCCUPATION, FY 2016 WITH COMPARISONS TO 2017 JOBS IN FIVE-COUNTY REGION SOC CODE DESCRIPTION # Sources: Chmura Economics & Analytics; TIP Strategies. Note: Figure 17 includes occupations with at least 10 military exits during the period. MILITARY EXITS FY 2016 % OF TOTAL JOBS 2017 I-77 ALLIANCE REGION MED. HOURLY WAGE HR Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping 60 10% 480 $ Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 45 8% 4,468 $ Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 24 4% 610 $ Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 24 4% 3,616 $ Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers 16 3% <10 N/A Communications Equipment Operators, All Other 11 2% 13 $ Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, & Repairers 11 2% 1,602 $ Radio, Cell., & Tower Equipment Install. & Repair. 11 2% 31 $ Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 11 2% 2,061 $18.54 REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 14

18 MIGRATION PATTERNS Data compiled by the US Internal Revenue Service comparing year-over-year address changes on federal tax returns can be used to understand county-level migration patterns. Figure 18 shows total net migration flows by county (migration into the county minus outbound flows). These flows are fairly balanced across the region, with few exceptions. The most notable of these exceptions is the high levels of net out-of-state migration seen in Lancaster and York Counties, with each county averaging gains of roughly 1,000 or more households annually during the period analyzed. By contrast, Fairfield, Richland, and York Counties averaged modest net losses from migration flows with other South Carolina counties (including other I-77 Alliance counties). Only Richland and York Counties experienced net in-migration of residents from outside the US. FIGURE 18. TOTAL NET MIGRATION BY COUNTY 3-YEAR AVERAGE ( ) Same State Different State Outside US +1, Chester Fairfield Lancaster Richland York Source: Internal Revenue Service, County-to-County Migration data (accessed via Missouri Census Data Center). Note: Figure 18 reflects the net number of households (returns), calculated as inbound flows minus outbound. ABOUT IRS MIGRATION DATA One of the most effective ways to understand migration patterns is the County-to-County Migration data collected as a byproduct of US Internal Revenue Service tax filings. Through this massive dataset, year-over-year comparisons of address changes by tax filers provide a basis for illustrating domestic population movements. Although not an exact match, tax returns are used to represent households; the number of exemptions filed is typically used as a proxy for population. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 15

19 Figure 19 shows the mix of inbound and outbound migrants by source. The majority of migrants in Chester and Fairfield Counties are from South Carolina. In Richland County, about half are from South Carolina and half are from outside the state. In York County, more than 70 percent of migrants are from outside of South Carolina. However, a large portion of these out-of-state migrants is from Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. Lancaster County is similar to York County. More than half of migrants come from out-of-state, but most are from Mecklenburg County. FIGURE 19. TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS BY SOURCE 3-YEAR AVERAGE ( ) CHESTER Same State Different State Outside US 28% 22% FAIRFIELD Same State Different State Outside US 21% 15% 72% 78% 79% 85% Inbound Outbound LANCASTER Same State Different State Outside US Inbound Outbound RICHLAND Same State Different State Outside US 73% 56% 2% 47% 47% 1% 27% 44% 51% 52% Inbound Outbound YORK Same State Different State Outside US 3% <1% Inbound Outbound 76% 70% 22% Inbound 30% Outbound Source: Internal Revenue Service, County-to-County Migration data. Notes: Tax years , , and Figure 19 excludes counties that had fewer than 10 returns identified as entering or leaving the county from/to another county. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 16

20 LABOR MOBILITY FIGURE 20. NORTH LABORSHED DRAW AREA FOR YORK, LANCASTER, AND CHESTER COUNTIES The northern counties York, Lancaster, and Chester - draw from a laborshed that includes Mecklenburg, Union, and Gaston Counties in North Carolina and Kershaw County in South Carolina. The north laborshed has a civilian labor force of 1.3 million. FIGURE 21. SOUTH LABORSHED DRAW AREA FOR FAIRFIELD AND RICHLAND COUNTIES The southern counties Fairfield and Richland draw from a laborshed that also extends to Mecklenburg County and draws from Kershaw, Lexington, Calhoun, Orangeburg, and Newberry Counties in South Carolina. The south laborshed has a civilian labor force of 1.2 million. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 17

21 FIGURE 22. INFLOW/OUTFLOW FOR I-77 ALLIANCE REGION, 2015 FLOW OF WORKERS TO/FROM THE REGION The five-county I-77 Alliance region is a net importer of labor with 151,853 workers commuting into the region for work and 131,426 workers commuting out for work. Fifty-seven percent of workers live and work in the region. 151,853 Commute to jobs in the I-77 Alliance region from outside Of the 328,876 workers who held jobs in the I-77 Alliance region in 2015, 46 percent lived outside the region. 177,023 Live and work in the I-77 Alliance region Of the 308,449 residents employed in 2015, 43 percent commuted to jobs outside the region. Live in the I-77 Alliance region and commute to jobs outside 131,426 Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics. Note: Overlay arrows are for illustrative purposes and do not indicate directionality of worker flow between home and employment locations. OUTBOUND (Commute from region to jobs outside) INBOUND (Commute into region from outside) LIVE & WORK (Live & work in region) 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 FIGURE 23. COMMUTING FLOWS, NUMBER OF JOBHOLDERS Since 2005, the number of inbound and outbound commuters has climbed steadily. Following years of progressive declines, the number of workers who live and work in the region has risen sharply since The region has consistently been a net importer of labor. The difference between the number of inbound and outbound commuters has stayed between 20,000 and 35,000 during the period analyzed. Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Number of jobholders REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 18

22 PEOPLE WHO WORK IN THE I-77 ALLIANCE REGION People who work in the region are traveling farther to work than they did in As of 2015, 41 percent of workers lived within 10 miles of their place of employment, a 6-percentage point drop from a decade earlier. Between 2005 and 2015, the share of jobholders who travel more than 50 miles increased by 3 percentage points, while the share of jobholders traveling 10 to 24 miles and 25 to 50 miles each increased 2 and 1 percentage points, respectively. Richland, York, and Lexington Counties are the top sources of labor. FIGURE 24. DISTANCE TRAVELED, 2005 VS SHARE OF JOBHOLDERS WORKING IN REGION FIGURE 25. COUNTY OF RESIDENCE, 2015 WHERE REGIONAL WORKERS LIVE 47% 41% Less than 10 miles County Count Share 1 Richland County, SC 95, % 2 York County, SC 52, % 29% 3 Lexington County, SC 43, % 27% 4 Lancaster County, SC 15, % 22% 19% 5 Mecklenburg County, NC 13, % 6 Kershaw County, SC 9, % 8% 9% 7 Chester County, SC 8, % 8 Greenville County, SC 6, % 9 Fairfield County, SC 5, % 10 to to 50 Greater than 10 Charleston County, SC 5, % miles miles 50 miles All Other Locations 73, % Total 328, % EMPLOYED PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN I-77 ALLIANCE REGION Employed people who live in the region are also traveling farther to work. As of 2015, 43 percent of jobholders lived less than 10 miles from work, down from 49 percent in The share of jobholders who travel between 10 and 24 miles has increased from 29 percent to 32 percent, while the share of workers commuting 25 to 50 miles and greater than 50 miles increased by 2 percent and 1 percentage points, respectively. Richland, York, and Mecklenburg Counties are the top work destinations for employed people who live in the region. FIGURE 26. DISTANCE TRAVELED, 2005 VS SHARE OF JOBHOLDERS LIVING IN REGION FIGURE 27. COUNTY OF EMPLOYMENT, 2015 WHERE EMPLOYED RESIDENTS WORK 49% 43% Less than 10 miles % 32% 10 to 24 miles 7% 9% 25 to 50 miles 15% 16% Greater than 50 miles County Count Share 1 Richland County, SC 99, % 2 York County, SC 53, % 3 Mecklenburg County, NC 40, % 4 Lexington County, SC 29, % 5 Lancaster County, SC 12, % 6 Greenville County, SC 8, % 7 Chester County, SC 6, % 8 Fairfield County, SC 5, % 9 Charleston County, SC 4, % 10 Spartanburg County, SC 4, % All Other Locations 43, % Total 308, % Source (all figures this page): US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 19

23 Figure 28 shows the top 20 sources of workers for the I-77 Alliance region, along with the number of employed residents in the county and a calculation of the net flow of commuters. Richland and York Counties are the largest employment and residential centers within the region. Mecklenburg County is the largest employment center outside the region, with more than 40,000 residents of the I-77 Alliance region holding jobs in the county. To the south, Lexington County is a significant source of workers for I-77 Alliance employers, sending roughly 43,700 workers to the five-county region. FIGURE 28. TOP 20 SOURCES OF WORKERS, 2015 COUNTIES WHERE REGIONAL WORKERS LIVE, WITH NET FLOW Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics. People who WORK in the I-77 Alliance region and live in this county People who LIVE in the I-77 Alliance region and work in this county Net flow 1 Richland County, SC 95,748 99,084-3,336 2 York County, SC 52,519 53,718-1,199 3 Lexington County, SC 43,729 29, ,740 4 Lancaster County, SC 15,031 12,923 +2,108 5 Mecklenburg County, NC 13,650 40,502-26,852 6 Kershaw County, SC 9,341 2,772 +6,569 7 Chester County, SC 8,095 6,252 +1,843 8 Greenville County, SC 6,352 8,257-1,905 9 Fairfield County, SC 5,630 5, Charleston County, SC 5,608 4, Spartanburg County, SC 5,096 4,081 +1, Sumter County, SC 4,478 2,424 +2, Orangeburg County, SC 4,106 1,555 +2, Horry County, SC 4,093 1,728 +2, Florence County, SC 3,163 1,793 +1, Gaston County, NC 2,945 3, Berkeley County, SC 2, , Newberry County, SC 2,867 1,640 +1, Aiken County, SC 2,786 1, Union County, NC 2,713 2, In 2015, jobs in public administration, finance & insurance, and administration & support drew the most workers (on a net basis) into the I-77 Alliance region (see Figure 29, next page). These sectors have consistently been net importers of workers. Transportation & warehousing, management of companies & enterprises, and manufacturing were the sectors that drew the most workers out of the I-77 Alliance region. The region has consistently been a net exporter of workers in manufacturing and transportation & warehousing. However, the management of companies and enterprises sector changed from a net importer to a net exporter of workers in REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 20

24 FIGURE 29. NET COMMUTING FLOWS BY NAICS INDUSTRY SECTOR, 2015 NET FLOWS = INBOUND - OUTBOUND FLOWS +14, ,668 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION +14, , , , , , , ,211 TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING ,495-3,372-3,848-3,588-3,775-3,988-4,201-4,736-5,240-5,317 FINANCE AND INSURANCE MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES ,868 +9,618 +7,843 +9,295 +9,693 +9,118 +9,048 +8,987 +9,148 +8, ,437-1,614 ADMINISTRATION AND SUPPORT MANUFACTURING ,013 +1,594 +1, ,553 +2,450 +3,014 +2,637 +2,873 +3,420-3,083-3,224-4,761-3,951-3,264-2,847-4,126-4,255-2,850-2,973 Source: US Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics. Note: NAICS (pronounced nakes ) is the North American Industry Classification System used for classifying business establishments. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 21

25 OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE Low-skill occupations are those occupations that require a high school diploma or less and no on the job training. Middle-skill occupations are those occupations that require at least a high school diploma and some additional training but less than a bachelor s degree. High-skill occupations are those that require a bachelor s degree or higher. The I- 77 Alliance region has slightly more high- and middle-skill jobs than the US. The number of openings includes both new jobs and replacement jobs. Replacement jobs are positions needed to replace existing workers who leave the occupation due to a variety of factors including retirement, career advancement, or exiting the workforce to raise children or attend school. Over the next 5 years, the region is expected to have more than 240,000 openings. Almost 90 percent of these openings will be replacement jobs. Thirty-six percent of the openings will be for middle-skill occupations and 26 percent for high-skill occupations. FIGURE 30. OCCUPATIONS BY SKILL LEVEL, 2017 I-77 ALLIANCE REGION UNITED STATES High 26% Low 39% High 25% Low 40% Middle 36% Middle 35% FIGURE 31. ESTIMATED OPENINGS BY SKILL LEVEL, I-77 ALLIANCE REGION UNITED STATES New Replacement New Replacement 92% 89% 83% 92% 91% 85% 8% 11% 17% 8% 9% 15% Low Middle High Low Middle High Source (all figures this page): Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 22

26 Three occupational categories office & administrative support, sales & related, and food preparation & serving related account for roughly one-third of total employment in the five-county region. Production workers and transportation & material moving occupations round out the top five, with each group representing nearly 25,000 jobs. FIGURE 32. EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION, 2017 I-77 ALLIANCE REGION Office & Administrative Support Sales & Related Food Preparation & Serving Related Production Transportation & Material Moving Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Business & Financial Operations Education, Training, & Library Management Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Construction & Extraction Personal Care & Service Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Protective Service Computer & Mathematical Healthcare Support Community & Social Service Architecture & Engineering Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media Legal Life, Physical, & Social Science Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 37,582 30,643 24,955 23,001 22,467 22,181 21,987 20,053 16,177 14,780 14,243 13,575 11,726 10,588 9,768 8,085 6,948 6,163 4,487 2,568 1,251 64,997 Source: Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. Note: Excludes military and unclassified employment. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 23

27 Figure 33 presents the same data as Figure 32 on a percentage basis and includes comparisons with the north and south laborsheds, the state, and the US. While the percentages vary slightly, the I-77 Alliance region s occupational structure largely mirrors these geographies, with the same three occupational categories comprising the largest share of employment across the board. One place where the five-county region differs is in the share of production workers. At 6.4 percent, this important workforce comprises slightly more of the regional workforce than the national average. However, production workers account for nearly 9 percent of employment at the state level. FIGURE 33. OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION (% OF TOTAL), 2017 COMPARISON OF I-77 ALLIANCE REGION WITH SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES AND US SOC Code & Description I-77 Alliance Region North Laborshed 43 Office & Administrative Support 16.7% 15.7% 15.9% 14.6% 15.1% 41 Sales & Related 9.7% 10.7% 10.8% 10.6% 10.0% 35 Food Preparation & Serving Related 7.9% 8.1% 8.1% 9.2% 8.5% 51 Production 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% 8.9% 6.0% 53 Transportation & Material Moving 5.9% 7.1% 7.4% 6.9% 6.7% 29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 13 Business & Financial Operations 5.7% 6.7% 6.5% 3.9% 5.1% 25 Education, Training, & Library 5.7% 4.8% 4.7% 5.4% 5.8% 11 Management 5.2% 5.4% 5.5% 4.8% 5.5% 49 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.6% 3.8% 47 Construction & Extraction 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 4.5% 39 Personal Care & Service 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 37 Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maint. 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 4.3% 3.8% 33 Protective Service 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15 Computer & Mathematical 2.7% 3.6% 3.6% 1.9% 2.9% 31 Healthcare Support 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 21 Community & Social Service 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 17 Architecture & Engineering 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 27 Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 23 Legal 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 19 Life, Physical, & Social Science 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 45 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% Source: Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. Notes: Excludes military and unclassified employment. Three largest occupations are highlighted. South Laborshed South Carolina US REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 24

28 A look at the concentration of workers by occupational group reveals few significant differences relative to the US. Only three categories have higher-than-expected levels of employment in the region: legal occupations, protective service workers, and community & social service positions. Notably, both laborsheds have higher concentrations in business & financial operations and computer & mathematical occupations. South Carolina s manufacturing strength can be seen in the 1.50 LQ for production workers. FIGURE 34. OCCUPATIONAL CONCENTRATION (LQ), 2017 COMPARISON OF I-77 ALLIANCE REGION WITH SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES AND US SOC Code & Description I-77 Alliance Region North Laborshed South Laborshed South Carolina 23 Legal Protective Service Community & Social Service Business & Financial Operations Office & Administrative Support Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Production Architecture & Engineering Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Education, Training, & Library Sales & Related Computer & Mathematical Management Food Preparation & Serving Related Building/Grounds Cleaning & Maint Healthcare Support Transportation & Material Moving Personal Care & Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, & Media Construction & Extraction Life, Physical, & Social Science Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Source: Emsi QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, and Self-Employed. Notes: Excludes military and unclassified employment. LQs greater than 1.25 are presumed to show competitive advantage and are highlighted. US ABOUT LOCATION QUOTIENTS (LQS) Location quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular occupation is in a region as compared to the nation. LQs are calculated as an occupation s share of total local employment divided by the same occupation s share of employment at the national level. (local employment in occupation x / total local employment all occupations (national employment in occupation x / total national employment all occupations) If the local occupation and national occupation are perfectly proportional, the LQ will be LQs greater than 1.25 are presumed to indicate a comparative advantage; those below 0.75 suggest areas of weakness. REGIONAL WORKFORCE STUDY PAGE 25