Airthrey Green, Stirling. Economic Impact Assessment - June 2011

Transcription

1 Airthrey Green, Stirling Economic Impact Assessment - June 2011

2 Airthrey Kerse Masterplan: Economic Impact Assessment A Report for Graham s Family Dairy June 2011

3 Contents 1 Introduction Introduction Background Approach 2 Economic Context Introduction Government Economic Strategy Scottish Planning Policy Stirling City Vision Stirling Local Development Plan Stirling Economic Strategy Stirling s Economy Stirling s Property Sector Stirling s Food and Drink Sector 3 Socio-Economic Impact Introduction Method Local Baseline Conditions Potential Impacts Wider Economic Impacts 4 Conclusions

4 1. Introduction 1.1. Introduction This report presents an economic impact assessment for the proposed mixed-use development at Airthrey Kerse Farm, Bridge of Allan. The analysis is based on a review of economic development policy, an assessment of the local economy, and an appraisal of socio-economic benefits associated with the development Background Graham s Family Dairy, through Ristol Ltd, has commissioned an economic appraisal of the masterplan for the redevelopment of Airthrey Kerse Farm. This exercise has been undertaken to quantify the scale and scope of economic benefits, results and outcomes of the proposals. The impact assessment is supplements other technical assessments and is based on the masterplan comprising: Dairy expansion and new office accommodation New community park Sporting facilities including community sports hub pavilion and links with the University of Stirling s Development Plan and emerging masterplan A new Causewayhead Primary School and improvements to Bridge of Allan Primary School 800 homes Improved access and connectivity at Airthrey Road Establishment of a new Development Company to ensure delivery and sustainability The existing dairy operation is founded 70 years of milk production at Airthrey Kerse Farm, where the Graham family has been producing milk across three generations. The farm was originally bought by the family in 1945, following 6 years as tenants, and it has continued to prosper. The business, Graham s The Family Dairy, now employs in excess of 400 staff with an annual turnover of more than 50m. The business has enjoyed significant growth over the past 15 years with employment increasing from 45 in 1997 to 415 in The dairy is now recognised as Scotland s largest independent dairy company and the UK s seventh largest milk producer, producing more than 330,000 pints per day. The company is one of the largest private sector employers in Stirling and has partnership agreements with more than 54 Scottish farms. The dairy operation has undergone significant investment to cater for increased volume, new product lines and enhanced processes. Further expansion is now required; to meet increasing demand, a drive for even greater productivity and further product diversification. In addition to safeguarding onsite and offsite employment, the expansion plans will create additional employment and thereby support the economic ambitions of Stirling, and Scotland. The food and drink sector is a key contributor to Scotland s wealth, representing 15% of economic output and 18% of employment. Locally, the industry is of strategic importance, also representing 18% of total employment but only contributing 12% towards the area s economic output. Although the local food and drink sector has increased its share of the wider Stirling economy, and done so at a greater rate than witnessed nationally, it remains under-valued and is recognised by the Stirling Economic Partnership as one of three key economic sectors. 1

5 As a business working across Scotland and nationally recognised through numerous awards and high profile contracts, Graham s and their supply chain play a key role in supporting the economic and food and drink ambitions of the area. As part of the enhanced dairy plans, Graham s propose to invest in community assets and facilities. The pastures at Airthrey Kerse Farm are now surplus to direct diary requirements and a new community park alongside education and sporting facilities are being proposed. In order to cross subsidise the dairy enhancement and new community assets the masterplan introduces new homes, to cater for unmet demand at the local level. The proposals have a focus on quality and provenance and have been designed to complement existing facilities to ensure the business continues to be a key economic agent as well as furthering its valued community role. The economic impact assessment has been completed in line with economic impact guidance and based on discussions with the Economic Development Department at Stirling Council. The structure of the report is as follows: Section 2: Provides the context for the development in terms of both the policy context and a socio-economic overview to illustrate the economic conditions, challenges and outlook of the area; Section 3: Presents an assessment of the likely socio-economic impacts as a result of the completed development and measuring these against local economic circumstances; and Section 4: Highlights the overarching findings of the assessment Approach The assessment examines the impacts of the proposed development on employment, investment, local spending, community development and the local business base, at construction and completion stages. This assessment is based on the masterplan prepared by Ristol Ltd. The strategic impacts presented in this report are related to the current proposals (May 2011), refinements are likely as the masterplanning process progresses. The relevant policy context and methods used to assess the impacts are described together with the baseline conditions which currently exist in the area. An overview of the local economy is undertaken to demonstrate the role which the development would play in supporting a sustainable economic future. Finally, the economic and community impacts are presented to highlight the scale and scope of potential benefits accruing from the development. 2

6 2. ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1. Introduction The economic development impacts arising from the development have the potential to support a broad range of current and future policies. A review of the economic development policy has been completed to indicate where and how the development can assist the economic ambitions of the Stirling The Government Economic Strategy The Government Economic Strategy (GES) for Scotland sets an ambitious and multi-faceted approach to secure long-term economic growth. To deliver sustainable economic growth the Scottish Government has identified five Strategic Priorities that are internationally recognised to be critical in maximising economic growth. Of direct relevance to the Airthrey Kerse development are the aims under Supportive Business Environment which focuses on stimulating investment, innovation and skills development, particularly in Scotland s five Key Sectors, including food and drink. Of similar significance are the aims under the Infrastructure Development and Place priority, which supports the creation of new developments that offer sustainable economic benefits. This priority also promotes projects which harness the geography and resource of an area to deliver sustainable economic benefits. As a high quality and well connected development Airthrey Kerse can play an important role in attracting and retaining talent, supporting local businesses and aiding the economic development of the area. The Scottish Government has a renewed focus towards delivering the GES in light of the economic recovery. The Economic Recovery Programme, which builds upon the GES, focuses on tackling the downturn by targeting policy towards three key areas: Supporting Jobs and Communities; Strengthening Education and Skills and Investing in Innovation and Industries of the Future. The development at Airthrey Kerse can sustain existing employment whilst creating new employment opportunities, at both operational and construction phases. The food and drink sector is a key sector which has continued to expand during the recent recession. The development can also support the economic growth of Stirling through attracting new residents and supporting the needs of excluded groups Scottish Planning Policy The consolidated Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) is the statement of the Scottish Government's policy on land use planning matters. The new SPP provides a shorter, clearer and more focused statement of national planning policy. The SPP supersedes a range of SPPs, including SPP2 Economic Development, which is now revoked. The refreshed SPP is governed by the Government s vision for sustainable economic growth. SPP states that the planning system should proactively support development that will contribute to sustainable economic growth and to high quality sustainable places. Achieving sustainable economic growth requires a planning system that enables the development of growth enhancing activities across Scotland and protects and enhances the quality of the natural and built environment as an asset for that growth. Planning authorities are required to take a positive approach to development, recognising and responding to economic and financial conditions in considering proposals that could contribute to economic growth. 3

7 SPP recognises the important role planning authorities play in facilitating economic development. The revised policy requires local authorities to respond to the diverse needs and locational requirements of different sectors and businesses and take a flexible approach to ensure that changing circumstances can be accommodated and new economic opportunities realised. Removing unnecessary planning barriers to business development and providing scope for expansion and growth is a core feature of the new SPP. The planning system is charged with supporting economic development in all areas by: taking account of the economic benefits of proposed development in development plans and development management decisions; promoting development in sustainable locations, particularly in terms of accessibility; promoting regeneration and the full and appropriate use of land, buildings and infrastructure; supporting development which will provide new employment opportunities and enhance local competitiveness; and promoting the integration of employment generation opportunities with supporting infrastructure and housing development. The planning system has been reformed to be responsive and sufficiently flexible to accommodate the requirements of growing indigenous firms. Planning authorities are now responsible for ensuring there is a range and choice of marketable sites and locations for businesses allocated in new local development plans. This includes opportunities for mixed use development, to meet anticipated requirements and a variety of size and quality requirements. SPP also supports rural development across Scotland and recognises the planning system has a significant role in supporting sustainable economic growth in rural and semi-rural areas. The aim is to enable development in all rural areas which supports prosperous and sustainable communities whilst protecting and enhancing environmental quality. Graham s has developed the Airthrey Kerse proposals in line with the revised planning policy set out above. As an expanding indigenous business, Graham s is constrained at their current location and new facilities are required to address capacity constraints which in turn can support the wider economic and community development of Stirling Stirling City Vision A City Visioning exercise was completed in 2010, this has helped inform the LDP process. Of direct relevance to the Airthrey Kerse proposals are the clear and significant economic opportunities afforded through enhanced links, both physical and knowledge related, between the City and the University. The vision sets out a key role of the City to become a house of knowledge, a critical success factor being the growth the economic base of wider Stirling through exploiting strategic and local connectivity and crucially building on the knowledge resources of the University. In addition to knowledge links, the City Vision outlines the importance of creating a better physical connection with the University. The vision recognises there are limited connections between the City and the University, a key priority going forward is to embrace this strategic economic opportunity. The Airthrey Kerse proposals, through their strategic economic location, are designed to support the City Vision through enhancing both physical and knowledge links between the City and University. Developing quality open space and a mixed use development in parallel with the University masterplan will ensure the ambitions set out in the City Vision can be realised. 4

8 2.5. Stirling Local Development Plan In taking forward the requirements of the Planning etc. (Scotland) Act 2006, Stirling Council is embarking on the production of a new Local Development Plan. This will ultimately replace the Structure Plan and Local Plan that exist at present. A Main Issues Report (MIR) has been published and public consultation is ongoing prior to a Proposed Plan being issued in September The proposals set out in the Airthrey Kerse masterplan, and associated technical reports, are being developed in accordance with the LDP process and procedures. The preparation of the new LDP will assist with the delivery of economic development for the area, whilst making sure that the quality of the built environment matches that of the natural environment. The overarching vision of the LDP is focused on economic and place development principles: The vision is that Stirling will still be a fine historic small city, drawing benefits from its relative proximity to the conurbations and the other towns of Central Scotland and Tayside, but also interdependent with the attractive small towns and villages around it, and still enjoying a superb landscape setting including the adjacent Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park. The MIR directly supports the Stirling Single Outcome Agreement, and the Airthrey Kerse proposal has a direct link with the key themes and activities outlined under; Vibrant Economy, Jobs and Opportunity for All and High Quality Environment. The Airthrey Kerse proposal directly supports the emerging LDP through being an existing commercial asset; the proposals also promote a sustainable community and promote a sense of place and a healthy lifestyle. The development is designed to support the economic ambitions through safeguarding and creating new jobs whilst attracting residents, both of which being fundamental to secure the economic future of the City and region Stirling Economic Strategy This strategy is a 5-year vision for development and regeneration in the Stirling Council area. The strategy recognises the importance of sustaining and balancing the wealth in one of Scotland s best connected and affluent areas. The economic strategy is based on the principles of sustainable growth, innovation and enterprise, resilience and economic opportunity. Led by the Stirling Economic Partnership, the strategy prioritises: and It will be a modern and vibrant city, a place where people will choose to live, work and spend their recreation time - more people will work close to and within their homes, and in the expanded City Centre, and previous pockets of deprivation in urban and rural locations will have been addressed. The levels of social polarisation will have been reduced and there will be more opportunities to access local affordable housing The MIR reiterates the economic development aspirations of the region and identifies Make best use of existing commercial assets as one of the six pillars to achieve the above vision, notwithstanding the need for up to 10,150 new dwellings in the ten year plan period. A vital, vibrant and diverse Stirling city centre; Economically assured businesses, investors, employees and families; Diverse and sustainable urban and rural economies and communities; A greater diversity of jobs, including those of higher value; An appropriately skilled workforce; and Maximised income and minimised poverty. 5

9 Stirling Council and Community Planning Partners are aiming to enhance the areas reputation as one of Scotland s best places to live. Although recognised as a high quality location there is an emphasis in the current economic strategy to grow and diversify the business base. An Economic Strategy Action Plan has been developed by the Stirling Economic Partnership, and it recognises the strategic importance of supporting the development of a valuable and sustainable food and drink sector. Food and drink is seen as one of three key local sectors, others being renewables and tourism. In addition to supporting the growth of a significant local employer and its local supply chain, the Airthrey Kerse Farm proposals can support the Stirling Economic Strategy through its ability to enhance the areas reputation as a quality place to live and work. The development will support new community infrastructure as well as encouraging new residents to the area Stirling s Economy This section briefly summarises the overarching socio-economic conditions of the area. This section presents the valuable economic role of food and drink sector at both the national level and compares this to the local situation. Overall, the data for Stirling Council indicates that the authority is performing well in comparison with national trends. A socio-economic model which measures the performance of each of Scotland s 32 Council areas across five critical determinants of economic strength indicates that Stirling has one of the most robust economies in Scotland. The chart demonstrates Stirling is a well structured and advanced economy, with high levels of income, education attainment and employment and lower levels of unemployment and benefit claimants. In terms of the performance across all five key domains, Stirling has the most balanced scorecard of all Scottish local authorities. MKA Economics 2011 Stirling s unemployment rate currently stands at 6.5%, compares to 6.6% nationally. Average resident based earnings are higher in Stirling ( 529 per week) compared to 487 nationally. Although it should be noted that workplace based earnings are the same in Stirling than at Scottish level, suggesting that there are higher paid professionals residing but not working in Stirling. Stirling schools have higher education attainment levels at all exam levels and more school leavers (42%) go on to Further Education than at the national level (35%). In terms of Housing Tenure, the Owner Occupied segment makes up a larger proportion of total tenure at 67%, compared to 63% nationally and there are fewer socially rented (3%) than recorded at the national level (6%). Although deemed a robust economy where population and employment gains have been significant over the decade to 2007, the area has recorded significant increases in unemployment in recent times. The table below, sourced from the Scottish Government s Local Labour Market Statistics (July 2010), highlights the significant increase in unemployment in Stirling over the past three years. 6

10 The positive economic strength of the area hides a range of worrying trends and statistics, of which the Stirling Economic Partnership is acutely aware. The need to support local businesses is pronounced during a recession, especially those contributing to key sector growth. Aiding indigenous businesses to grow existing markets and enter new markets helps to safeguard jobs and create new job opportunities. Supporting the development of Stirling s major employers is the key priority for the Stirling Economic Partnership Stirling s Property Sector Stirling Council has recently endorsed a Business Space Strategy, which provides an evidence base to ensure adequate and suitable business space is developed to ensure long-term economic growth within the Stirling Council area. It confirms that additional business land needs to be allocated to accommodate future jobs required to meet population and economic growth. Local Area Labour Markets in Scotland Statistics 2010 According to official Scottish Government modelling, Stirling has recorded the 2 nd highest increase in the number of people out of work, where unemployment increased by almost 60%, compared to a 34% nationally. Although unemployment remains in line with the national average, the rate of growth in is a significant challenge facing the Stirling. Similarly, the level of economic polarisation in the Stirling economy is amongst the highest in the UK and has widened as a result of local job losses. Significant pockets of urban and rural deprivation exist and reducing the wealth gap is an important component of the new economic strategy. It is clear from the economic summary that the Stirling economy is suffering through the recession and continues to face a challenging and difficult period. Although the economy has witnessed prolonged growth and benefits from a higher proportion of skilled professionals with a traditionally lower rate of unemployment, it is becoming increasingly clear that a decade of progress has been badly affected by the recent economic downturn. Directly related to Graham s dairy expansion, the analysis confirms the need to support the move from heavy manufacturing to lighter industrial uses, such as production, distribution and wholesale. The Business Space Strategy confirms much of the industrial stock in Stirling is outdated and not fit for purpose and reinvestment is required. This strategy is consistent with the needs of growing local businesses, including the Graham s dairy expansion plans The Food and Drink Sector The food and drink sector is one of five Key Sectors, recognised by the Scottish Government in its Government Economic Strategy. The sector generates 10.2bn per annum in gross value added to the Scottish economy, increasing from 6.4bn in The sector employs almost 370,000 people and generated a combined turnover of 34.1bn in

11 The food and drink sector in Stirling makes an important contribution to the wider economy, accounting for 12% of wider economic output and employing 18% of the employment base. The local food and drink sector has grown significantly over the past ten years, outstripping the average rate of growth of both the local economy and the national food and drink sector. However, at a national level the sector represents 18% of the wider economy and therefore there is considerable scope for expanding the local food and drink sector. Both the national and local food and drink sectors have continued to grow throughout the recession, further highlighting the economic importance of the sector and the need to support local food and drink businesses. It is apparent through a strategic review of the local economy that Stirling is a well balanced and robust economy. However, the economic downturn has served Stirling with a new challenge of increasing unemployment, which has been acutely evident in certain local areas. The development of Airthrey Kerse has the opportunity to support a key growth sector business and significant local employer, helping to safeguard existing jobs and generate new direct onsite and indirect offsite employment. Furthermore, the development can act as a catalyst to attract new residents which support the existing business base and generate opportunities for new businesses and employment. The Stirling Economic Partnership has identified the food and drink sector as one of three key sectors, alongside renewables and tourism. The sector has been prioritised as an area of growth and the continued expansion of Graham s as both a key employer and Scotland s leading independent dairy, can play a vital role in supporting the economic ambitions of the food and drink sector Summary The review of national and local economic development policy confirms that the Airthrey Kerse proposals have the potential to support a range of existing and emerging policies. The strategic importance of a growing business in a key sector forms the backbone to the development proposals, namely supporting the further enhancement of Scotland s leading independent dairy business. Enabling wider community and economic development is a primary focus of the development proposals. The masterplan has been developed in line with both the Stirling City Vision and the University s Development Plan, and emerging masterplan, to unlock the potential of greater physical and knowledge connections between the City, the place, and the University, the place. 8

12 3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT 3.1. Introduction The socio-economic assessment has been undertaken to calculate the impact on the economy as result of the Airthrey Kerse development. It assesses the employment opportunities related to the construction and operational phases, the population impact from new housing and the impact this may have on existing community infrastructure. The assessment also introduces wider and longer term economic benefits associated with the development plans. This Chapter does not constitute a market appraisal of the demand and likely take-up of the development, but represents an outline assessment of the potential socio-economic impacts that the development could deliver if fully implemented and occupied Method The specific methods for assessing the economic impact are set out below. Construction Employment The amount of construction employment provided by the proposed development has been estimated using man years of employment derived from the average output per employee in the construction industry in Scotland. The Scottish Government publishes estimates for turnover per employee within the Scottish Annual Business Statistics and the current (2008) national figure identified within this assessment is 129,724. At the time of the assessment, a detailed breakdown of construction costs was not available. Although final capital costs have not been calculated at this stage in the design process, the likely costs associated with the proposed development are estimated to be approximately 150million. Direct Dairy Workforce At present Graham s Family Dairy employs 415 people, of which 250 are employed onsite at Airthrey Kerse Farm. As a result of the dairy enhancement the business is expected to generate an additional 150 direct onsite jobs. GVA is the key economic indicator used for measuring the performance of an area or sector. GVA is the value of goods and services produced by an area, sector or producer minus the cost of the raw materials and other inputs used to produce them. The GVA impact can be derived from the GVA per food and drink employee in Stirling from the latest Scottish Annual Business Statistics, or 22,146. It is worth noting the national GVA per food and drink employee is 31,393. Economic impact assessments must take account of displaced economic activity. Displacement is the proportion of benefits accounted for by reduced benefits elsewhere in the area. Displacement arises where a development takes market share from other existing areas or organisations. As the proposal is designed to meet new market demand the development has not been designed to compete with existing businesses but to accommodate the needs of a larger and more diversified market. Therefore, increased production is more likely to support the growth and sustainability of the business base in the area. Therefore displacement is assumed to be negligible. Multiplier effects also have to be calculated in economic impact assessments. Multiplier effects are further economic activity associated with additional income and supplier purchases. Multiplier effects for different Scottish based industries are provided by the Scottish Government s Input/Output Tables

13 Combined multipliers denote both indirect and induced affects and are also commonly referred to as Type II multipliers. Employment and GVA multipliers used in this assessment are drawn from the Agriculture industry group and specifically the Dairy Products sub-group, the appropriate multipliers being: Employment multiplier: 2.44 GVA multiplier: 2.64 Population In terms of the numbers of residents that will be accommodated within the new residential component of this development is derived from the proposed housing mix and density assumptions. At this stage, affordable housing provision has not been specifically considered within the planning assessment. The precise nature of affordable housing will be established at the detailed design stage but for the purposes of the socio-economic assessment we have assumed 25% (200units) of the development will be allocated as onsite affordable homes. For the private residential units the development mix is expected to be 20% three bed, 50% four bed and 30% five bed homes. The following density rates have been assumed: for five bed properties it has been assumed that 10% will be inhabited by couples, 20% by three persons, 40% by four persons, 25% by five persons and 5% by six persons. In terms of the affordable homes, the development mix is expected to be 50% three bed and 50% four bed homes. The following densities have been assumed: for three bed properties it has been assumed that 25% will be inhabited by couples, 50% by three people and 25% by four persons; and for four bed properties it has been assumed that 35% by three persons, 40% by four persons and 25% by five persons. It should be noted that the scale of development is provided as a maximum for the purposes of economic assessment. The precise mix and density rates will be determined through the detailed planning stages and is likely to constitute a phased development over a 15 year period according to take up. In order to identify the likely profile of residents it has been assumed that occupiers of the proposed development will match the existing age structure profile (GRO Mid-Year Estimate 2010) of the current Stirling population, as follows: 5.2% will be of pre-school age (under 4 years); for three bed properties it has been assumed that 10% will be inhabited by single people, 40% by couples, 40% by three people and 10% by four persons; 9.2% will be of primary school age (5 to 12 years); 6.5% will be of mandatory secondary school age (13 to 17 years); for four bed properties it has been assumed that 20% will be inhabited by couples, 30% by three persons, 40% by four persons and 10% by five persons; and 63.0% will be of working age (18 to 65 years); and 16.1% will be of retirement age, over 65 years. 10

14 Local population assessments must take account of displaced economic activity. Displacement is the proportion of benefits accounted for by reduced benefits elsewhere in the local area. Displacement arises where a development takes market share from other existing areas or organisations or in this case where residents are displaced from a current Stirling location to Airthrey Kerse. In keeping with Stirling s position as a well connected and attractive residential location this appraisal assumes 75% of the private units will be sold to non- Stirling residents, i.e., 25% will be displaced from existing Stirling settlements. As the affordable aspect of the proposal is designed to support the needs of existing Stirling families the assessment has assumed 25% of the affordable units will be for non-stirling residents, i.e., 75% will be for existing Stirling families. Council Tax Assumptions have been made about the likely market value of the proposed residential units and the probable Council Tax band they will fall into. Calculations have then been made to establish the potential annual Council Tax revenue that will be generated through the residential development proposals. For the purposes of this assessment, it is assumed that: Two bed affordable units will be Council Tax Band C Three bed affordable units will be Council Tax Band D Three bed private units will be Council Tax Band E Local Services Four bed private units will be Council Tax Band F In determining the impact that the proposed development will have upon education services, this assessment has reviewed the separate Education Impact Assessment carried out by TPS in July This report reviewed school roll occupancy data to calculate whether schools in the local area have sufficient capacity to accommodate the additional population that it is estimated the proposed development will create. In determining the impact the proposed development will have on health services, in particular GP practices, dentists and hospitals, a survey of provision in the local area has been undertaken. This determines whether the current provision has sufficient capacity to accommodate the additional population to be created by the proposed development. Five bed private units will be Council Tax Band G Retail/Consumer Spend The Stirling Council Retail Capacity Update Report (November 2009) contains information which have been extrapolated to show the extent of retail expenditure that would generated by a development of 800 houses at Airthrey Kerse. Using the figures for the area in 2020 it would appear that each individual resident of the catchment area is estimated to generate an expenditure of approx. 2,447 per annum on convenience goods and 5,260 per annum on comparison goods Local Baseline Conditions This section summarises the baseline characteristics of the local area in terms of population, economic activity, employment, education, housing stock and availability of services such as education and healthcare. These are presented in order to demonstrate how the development proposals are expected to affect the local area. 11

15 The geographic areas assessed are defined as follows: Logie Ward the local area; defined as the former Bridge of Allan, Wallace and Logie wards these wards encapsulate Airthrey Kerse Farm; the region; defined as the Stirling Council area; and the national level depending on comparable statistics this is has been set as Scotland, and in some cases nationally. The following summary presents a socio-economic context for the local area, set against equivalent data for Stirling and Scotland/GB as a whole. The maps of the relevant geographic areas are shown below. Bridge of Allan Ward Wallace Ward 12

16 Population The local area accounts for just over 15% (13,388) of the total population of the Stirling Council area. The Bridge of Allan ward has a lower proportion of children and working age population than both the Stirling and Scottish levels, and a higher proportion of pensionable aged residents. Both Logie and Wallace wards have a higher proportion on working age residents and a lower level of pensionable aged residents. Population Bridge of Allan Logie Wallace Stirling Scotland Total Population 5,481 4,214 3,693 88,740 5,194,000 Total Population Aged , ,187 Total Population - Children (%) 16.3% 8.6% 19.7% 18.2% 17.6% Total Population - Working Age (%) 59.5% 77.0% 66.4% 61.5% 62.6% Total Population - Pensionable Age (%) 24.3% 14.4% 14.0% 20.4% 19.9% Male Population - Working Age 1,667 1,655 1,092 27,643 1,679,890 Female Population - Working Age 1,593 1,591 1,360 26,887 1,568,925 Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics 2011 Economic Activity The table opposite summarises the level of economically activity, in other words, the fraction of a population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. It highlights that all three local wards have a lower proportion of economically active residents. It should be noted that the significant low level of economic activity in the Logie ward is predominantly driven by the University s student population. Economic activity is generally lower in the Airthrey Kerse catchment due to the higher proportion of student and pension age residents. It s worth noting that Bridge of Allan has a higher proportion of residents who are self employed than recorded at both the regional and national level. Economic Activity All people Bridge of Logie Wallace Stirling Great Allan Britain (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Economically active In employment Males Employees Self employed Economically active In employment Females Employees Self employed Economically active Employment Employees Self employed Nomis 2011 Inactivity levels are presented in the following table, inactivity is higher in all three wards surrounding Airthrey Kerse. Inactivity in Bridge of Allan and Logie is directly associated with the higher incidence of retired and student populations respectively. The higher level of inactivity in Wallace is related to unemployment. Unemployment is assessed later in this section. Graham s dairy currently supports the local employment base, as many of the existing employees reside in the catchment of the dairy. The further enhancement of the diary can support local jobs and address unemployment and inactivity levels at both construction and operational stages. The high employment multiplier recorded in dairy processing indicates the significant number of offsite jobs supported by the current dairy operation. 13

17 Economic Inactivity All people Bridge of Logie Wallace Stirling Great Allan Britain (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Economically inactive Retired Student Other Males Economically inactive Retired Student Other Females Economically inactive Retired Student Other Nomis 2011 Employment The table opposite provides analysis of the occupation of the local residents and compares this against the Stirling and the UK picture. The local area accounts for around 4,500 employees, or 11% of the total Stirling employment base. However, the local area accounts for 15% of the resident population, the lower proportion of employees again reiterates the area s dependence on students and retired people and, in Wallace, a higher level of unemployment people. Comparing occupation data highlights that Bridge of Allan has a significantly higher proportion of residents in senior management and professional positions. Almost 50% of the working age residents are in senior positions, compared to 30% at the regional level and 25% at the national level. The proportions of elementary occupations are considerably lower in Bridge of Allan but higher in Logie and Wallace wards. Employment by Occupation Bridge of Logie Wallace Stirling Great Allan Britain (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 Managers and senior officials Professional Associate professional & technical Administrative & secretarial Skilled trades Personal services Sales and customer services Process plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Nomis 2011 Education The table below demonstrates that both Bridge of Allan and Logie have a significantly higher proportion of qualified residents than the regional and national levels. Although Wallace has lower attainment levels than Stirling, the area has higher attainment levels than recorded at the national level. Education Attainment All people Bridge of Logie Wallace Stirling Great Allan Britain (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) No qualifications or level unknown Lower level qualifications Higher level qualifications In employment No qualifications or level unknown Lower level qualifications Higher level qualifications Unemployed No qualifications or level unknown Lower level qualifications Higher level qualifications Nomis

18 Unemployment The number of people out of work and seeking benefits is a key measure of economic performance. The table below highlights that unemployment in Logie and Bridge of Allan has traditionally been lower than regional and national levels. However, unemployment in the Wallace ward is greater than the Stirling average and recently been greater than the national level. The figure below summarises unemployment across Stirling wards, illustrating that Logie has the lowest unemployment of all 32 former wards and Bridge of Allan has one of the lowest rates. The figure also confirms the polarisation which exists in Stirling, and many large cities, where unemployment is more than nine times greater in Raploch compared to Logie. Nomis 2011 Nomis 2011 Time series data from 2004 to April 2011 illustrates that the local unemployment trend has broadly followed regional and national trends. Logie and Bridge of Allan have historically had low levels of unemployment, whereas unemployment in Wallace has tended to be slightly higher than the regional average. As noted, the level of polarisation has exacerbated over the past four years, jobs continue to be lost in manufacturing and construction sectors and certain wards now have some of the highest unemployment in the country. In addition to high value and knowledge related employment there is a clear need to generate volume opportunities and the construction and operation phases of the development proposals can play an important role in supporting local businesses, including social enterprise activity. 15

19 Housing The table below presents an overview of the housing market in Bridge of Allan, Stirling and Scotland. Almost 23% of Stirlingshire dwellings are located in the local area. The higher proportion of dwelling in relation to employees (11%) and population (15%) confirms that households are smaller in the area and there is a need to provide a wider range of offer to support the economic development of the area. The masterplan proposals recognise the skew towards higher priced and larger homes in the local housing market and the lower levels of smaller units, affordable and rented stock. Airthrey Kerse will be developed in line with Stirling Council s Housing Needs and Demand Assessment to develop an appropriate mix and tenure which will support local demand, low income families and individuals. Local Services (Education and Health) Housing 2010 Bridge of Allan Logie Wallace Stirling Scotland Total number of dwellings 6,384 1,098 1,444 39,324 2,192,246 Percentage of dwellings as Flats 25.1% 13.9% 26.2% 27.2% 38.1% Percentage of dwellings as Terraces 12.1% 11.7% 24.2% 19.4% 20.7% Percentage of dwellings as Semi-Detached 18.2% 29.3% 16.9% 22.6% 19.9% Percentage of dwellings as Detached 44.6% 45.1% 32.7% 30.8% 21.3% Percentage of dwellings with 1-3 rooms 31.0% 31.4% 31.1% 39.6% 42.7% Percentage of dwellings with 4-6 rooms 53.6% 57.5% 62.6% 51.7% 50.9% Percentage of dwellings with 7-9 rooms 14.0% 11.0% 6.2% 7.8% 5.8% Percentage of dwellings with 10+ rooms 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% Percentage of dwellings in Council Tax band A 3.1% 2.4% 24.3% 14.6% 22.2% Percentage of dwellings in Council Tax bands A to C 28.5% 24.1% 48.5% 47.4% 61.9% Percentage of dwellings in Council Tax bands D to E 28.1% 37.3% 29.3% 26.5% 25.9% Percentage of dwellings in Council Tax bands F to H 43.4% 38.6% 22.2% 26.1% 12.2% Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics 2011 The above summary indicates that Bridge of Allan has a lower proportion of flats, terrace and semi-detached dwellings and considerably more detached homes, more than twice the national average. Logie has a higher proportion of semidetached and detached homes and Wallace has a higher proportion of terraced homes. The current housing stock in the local area is characterised by larger detached and semi-detached homes in Bridge of Allan, and to a lesser extent Logie, and smaller homes in Wallace. Wallace also has a higher proportion of homes in Council Tax band A than both the regional and national average. An independent Educational Impact Assessment has been completed as part of the development proposals and is summarised in the Potential Impacts section of this report. There are two non-denominational primary schools (Bridge of Allan Primary School and Riverside Primary School) currently located within the immediate catchment of the development site and one denominational primary school (Our Lady s RC Primary School). There are two secondary schools provided within the catchment of the proposed development, Wallace High School and St Modan s RC High School. As well as pre-school nurseries at Bridge of Allan and Riverside Primary Schools, there are seven advertised day nurseries at present within a two mile catchment of Airthrey Kerse. A survey of sub-local health provision identified that there are eight GP practices within a two mile radius of the proposed development. There are 11 dental practices located within a two mile radius and the nearest NHS hospital is located within 11 miles (Forth Valley Royal Hospital). There are two day hospitals located within a mile, namely Orchard House and Kildean Day Hospitals. There is a private hospital (Abbey King s Park Hospital) located within five miles. 16

20 Employment Impact 3.4. Potential Impacts This section identifies the likely socio-economic impacts resulting from the proposed development during both the initial construction phase and once the development has been fully completed and operational. Construction Using the output per construction employee figure of 129,724, this employment co-efficient identifies that 1,156 years of construction employment will be created by the development equating to 116FTE jobs at the national level. Based on Scottish Enterprise Appraisal Guidance, we have assumed that 67% of construction jobs will be taken by people in the local area, this equates to 775 years of local construction employment at the local level equating to 78FTE jobs. Based on a gross value added per employee of 57,289 per construction worker at the local level, it is estimated that the construction phase of the development will inject more than 44m into the local economy. Compared with local employment levels in the construction sector of around 2,500 jobs, construction related employment associated with the development will have a substantial local impact, representing an increase of 30%. Dairy Operation The expanded dairy operation at Airthrey Kerse Farm is designed to employ 400 onsite employees, this represents an increase of 150 jobs on current operating levels at the site, as well as safeguarding 250 existing jobs. Taking account of employment multipliers the enhanced operation is estimated to create an additional 216 job opportunities in the wider economy and safeguarding 360 jobs. In total, the enhanced operation will sustain 976 jobs in the wider economy. Direct Onsite Employment Multiplier Total Jobs Jobs Multiplier Jobs Safeguard Create Total The Gross Value Added (GVA) impact of the development on the local economy can be derived from the GVA per food and drink employee in Stirling from the Scottish Annual Business Statistics ( 22,146). The economic value of direct onsite jobs at the expanded plant will generate 8.9m per annum for the economy, representing a 3.3m per annum uplift in existing levels, or a 60% increase. Taking into account GVA multipliers the total GVA impact of the new jobs will be in the region of 8.8m per annum. GVA Impact Direct Onsite GVA GVA Multiplier Multiplier GVA Total Jobs Safeguard 5,536, ,079,860 14,616,360 Create 3,321, ,447,916 8,769,816 Total 8,858,400 14,527,776 23,386,176 Overall, the enhanced dairy operation is expected to contribute in the region of 23.3m to the economy per annum, which is an 8.8m increase on existing annual levels. Total food and drink employment in the Stirling area stands at 5,700. The Graham s operation has the potential to sustain 976 jobs in the wider economy, this represents a 17% of all existing food and drink related jobs. However, it is important to note that not all new local jobs will be taken by local residents. 17

21 It should be noted that this assessment has not assessed the likely jobs required with the operation of the sports and recreation proposals. Employment generated from the establishment of new Development Company to deliver and manage the range of investments has also been excluded from the assessment. Population Based on the proposed densities and displacement assumptions across the 600 private residential units and the 200 onsite affordable units the completed scheme is expected to generate an additional 1,696 new residents at the Stirling level. Additional Population at Stirling Level 600 Private Units Units Persons 3bed (20%) bed (50%) 300 1,020 5bed (30%) TOTAL 600 2,031 New to Stirling 75% 1, Affordable Units Units Persons 3bed (50%) bed (50%) TOTAL The actual number of residents living at the Airthrey, not accounting for local displacement, is estimated to be in the region of 2,720. Based on the Stirling latest population profile, the expected age structure of the new resident base is presented in the table below. Expected Population by Age (Completed Development) Age Profile Airthrey Kerse % % 87 Pre-school Places % 250 Primary Places % 177 Secondary Places % 1,714 Working Age % 438 Retired TOTAL 100.0% 2,721 Total Residents The completed development would increase the number of dwellings in the local area by 9% and increase the population of the local area by 20%. Importantly for the local economy, the development will increase the number of working aged residents by 20%, this will help generate increased levels of income and therefore spending in the local area supporting both new and existing local businesses. Considering the development is expected to happen over a 15 year timeframe this impact will occur gradually over time. The increase in population will have a beneficial impact on the local area through increased levels of income, investment as well as creating employment opportunities. New to Stirling 25% 173 TOTAL NEW 1,696 18