Ontario Achievable Potential Study

Transcription

1 Ontario Achievable Potential Study 20 February 2015 R. Neal Elliott, P.E., Ph.D. Associate Director for Research American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

2 The American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE) ACEEE is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit that acts as a catalyst to advance energy efficiency policies, programs, technologies, investments, & behaviors 50 staff; headquarters in Washington, D.C. Focus on end-use efficiency in industry, buildings, & transportation Other research in economic analysis; behavior; energy efficiency programs; & national, state, & local policy Funding: Foundation Grants (52%) Contract Work & Gov t. Grants (20%) Conferences & Publications (20%) Contributions & Other (8%)

3 Why do a potential study? Provide analytic basis for energy efficiency as a resource Quantify the EE resource for system planning Identify & prioritize market sectors, EE measure opportunities Inform development of utility savings targets Determine funding levels for EE programs Inform program design in order to achieve near- and long-term savings potential Reassess energy efficiency opportunities as conditions/markets change

4 Different Levels of EE Studies Match the level of analysis to the needs of the stakeholders, e.g.: Detailed utility program planning; Province-wide achievable potential for long-term goal-setting; Making the case for efficiency policies and programs policy measures, consumer benefits, and jobs. Identify and engage all key stakeholders upfront to understand goals of the study. Cost-Effective Resource Policy Achievable Resource

5 ACEEE Shift from Achievable Analysis to Policy Analysis Link potential to set of tangible policy options. Bounded by cost-effective efficiency resource assessment (economic potential). Audience is a broad group of policymakers, advocates, utilities, etc. Stakeholders want information on costs, economic benefits, and jobs. Based on program experience elsewhere, e.g. time it takes to ramp up programs.

6 ACEEE Shift from Achievable Analysis to Policy Analysis Realistic achievable potential Maximum achievable potential Achievable potential Energy efficiency resource standards/targets Building energy codes and enforcement State and local facility performance contracting State-led financing programs Combined heat & power Rural and agriculture programs Water efficiency standards Enabling policies: pricing and education

7 Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies Source: EPA 2007

8 Strategic Questions What is the desired outcome/goal? Who is the study trying to influence? What are the target audience s key issues/framing? Who can reach the target audience? And how? What are their likely questions? Who is the major opposition & what are their concerns/arguments? What is the optimal timing for study release?

9 Lessons Learned Reference case forecast & avoided costs are some of most contentious issues least important to recommendations Every state/province/city is unique Regional studies often don t carry political weight or reflect local politics Beware of study fatigue/dueling studies Studies have short political & practical shelf-life

10 Lessons Learned (Continued) Communicate with stakeholders throughout the process: Need to conduct follow-up policy implementation support for success Data confusion Focus can easily get shifted to data confusion from key issues the study is addressing Focus on a few key, understandable messages that convey the findings Transparency, transparency, transparency!!!

11 Strategies for Responding to Regional Variation One approach: First step: detailed demographic & market characterization of all LDCs customers Aggregate LDC s with similar demographics together Develop program portfolios for aggregated groupings & estimate potential savings

12 Defining Achievable Balance participation rate vs. savings Customer awareness is import program element balance marketing vs. incentive budgets Capture full range of EE Benefits Look at programs by sector Define prior conditions for sector allocation of programs Understand unique market needs engage customers Cost effectiveness varies by program don t expect low income programs to achieve same level as large institutional program

13 Contact Information: R. Neal Elliott, Ph.D., P.E. Associate Director for Research ACEEE th street NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC Visit us on the Web at: Follow us on Twitter