PROPOSED SCOPE OF WORK: REGIONAL ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE PLAN FOR EXPANSION OF SUBMARINE SHIPBUILDING

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1 PROPOSED SCOPE OF WORK: REGIONAL ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE PLAN FOR EXPANSION OF SUBMARINE SHIPBUILDING PHASE 1: PROJECT START-UP 1.1 KICK OFF MEETING Our work will begin with a kick-off meeting with the JLUS Implementation Committee including representatives from the BFJ Planning team and SCCOG and municipal staff. The intent of this initial meeting is to discuss the proposed project approach, scope of work, and schedule. This meeting is an important first step in the planning process, ensuring that everyone understands and is in agreement with the approach, scope and timing of the project; the respective roles of participants; and manner of coordination and collaboration. A key topic to be discussed at this kick-off meeting will be the development of an outreach strategy for engaging the various stakeholders in order to create a consensus driven vision for the JLUS Implementation Project (see more detail below). We also believe it would be helpful to use part of the kick-off meeting to coordinate with Horsley Whitten Group, who would be updating the Town of Groton zoning code regulations in the vicinity of the SUBASE. As shown in the timeline, after the project kick-off meeting, we assume meetings with the JLUS Implementation Committee approximately every third month, which will include project briefings related to Project elements, results of stakeholder engagement, workshop preparation, etc. The core BFJ Team will attend all Committee meetings in-person. In addition, throughout the project, we will be involved in ongoing coordination with SCCOG staff (via conference call, , or in-person). 1.2 REVIEW EXISTING PLANS/STUDIES In this task, the BFJ Team will review the 2017 JLUS, the Town of Groton s 2016 Plan of Conservation and Development, the 2016 SEAT Bus Study, the 2018 regional Housing Needs Assessment, and any other studies referenced that may be pertinent, such as the concurrent Thames River Innovation Partners (TRIP) placemaking study. We will also supplement these studies by compiling relevant socioeconomic, land use and housing data and complete initial mapping using GIS data from the Town, SCCOG and other sources. This review will help establish a planning and policy baseline and identify key development patterns to consider for the JLUS Implementation Project. Phase 1 Deliverables: JLUS Implementation Committee meeting agendas and minutes 1

2 PHASE 2: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT 2.1 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY The BFJ Team will develop a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy in coordination with SCCOG staff and the JLUS Implementation Committee that is reflective of targeted public outreach strategies that work in the region. This strategy will target the general public as well as particular stakeholders such as the JLUS municipalities, Electric Boat and other major employers, colleges and universities, Southeast Area Transit (SEAT) District, CT DOT, Shoreline East, bike and pedestrian advocacy groups, the Southeastern Connecticut Housing Alliance (SECHA), realtors and housing developers. The Stakeholder Engagement Strategy will include a range of outreach methods to ensure maximum exposure and participation, potentially including but not limited to: Public workshops (see Task 2.5) Small focus group meetings and stakeholder interviews (see Task 2.4) SCCOG and Town website updates The BFJ Team will work with the SCCOG and municipal staff to provide content for a dedicated space for the project on the SCCOG website. Project flyers and E-blasts The BFJ Team will prepare project flyers during the course of the project to publicize public workshops; these flyers will be distributed by BFJ via to a database of local stakeholders that we will develop in coordination with SCCOG and municipal staff and the JLUS Implementation Committee. Meetings will be documented in the form of meeting summaries that will be reviewed by the project team and saved for the study record. Meeting summaries can become appendices to the final reports. 2.4 STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS AND OUTREACH The BFJ Team will hold 6-8 meetings with the stakeholders identified above to have detailed conversations about transit and housing issues and opportunities. We anticipate that some of these meetings will be focused on a particular topic (i.e. either housing or transit) and would be led by the appropriate team member, while others, such as with Electric Boat or colleges/universities, touch on both issues and would be co-led by various team members. In addition, the Team will conduct outreach to the JLUS municipalities to obtain feedback on potential development opportunities that could address future regional housing needs. This outreach will likely take the form of a questionnaire that can be sent to municipal representatives such as elected offices and/or planning staff. 2

3 2.5 PUBLIC WORKSHOPS We propose two public workshops for the JLUS Implementation Project. The first workshop will take place in the third month of the process and would serve to introduce the project to the public and begin the participatory process. We would begin with a presentation to introduce the overall project, after which we would break out into an interactive open house, during which participants will have an opportunity to browse among various stations pertaining to project topics. These stations would feature large-scale maps, graphics, and/or questions to prompt discussion and input, and would be staffed by a member of the BFJ Team and/or JLUS Implementation Committee. The second public workshop will take place in the seventh month of the process and will provide an opportunity to test recommendations with the community and gather feedback on any important issues and opportunities. As with the first workshop, the session will begin with a brief presentation, during which we would present the draft Project deliverables. Following the presentation, we would engage with participants in small roundtable discussions, with each table corresponding to a topic area. A representative from each table would then report their findings back to the group at-large. Phase 2 Deliverables: Stakeholder Engagement Plan Notes from 6-8 stakeholder meetings Public workshops, including all necessary materials and workshop summaries PHASE 3: ANALYSIS 3.1 ANALYSIS OF EXISTING SOCIOECONOMIC, LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS In this task, we will conduct a detailed analysis of existing conditions in and around the study area, building on the work prepared for the 2017 JLUS. That earlier analysis looked at population, land use and transportation data and trends from a regional perspective, across the six JLUS municipalities (Town and City of Groton, New London, Waterford, Ledyard and Montville). Our analysis will cover the following elements: Regional Land Use The BFJ Team will conduct a high-level analysis of existing land uses, development patterns, land use trends, constraints to future development, zoning regulations and overall land use and zoning goals and policies for the SCCOG municipalities. This work will entail the use of geospatial data to identify large-scale patterns including commercial nodes, key transportation corridors, and large vacant/underutilized areas. The focus of this analysis will be to identify opportunity areas for future development of housing. This mapping analysis will be supplemented by a review of relevant plans and policies, such as municipal plans of conservation and development and the 2017 SCCOG regional POCD. We will also review municipal 3

4 zoning regulations for the SCCOG municipalities to assess the range of housing types that are currently allowed. Existing Market Conditions and Housing Urbanomics will provide an overview of existing market conditions for the 22-municipality SCCOG region. This assessment will include profiles of the population, labor force, and local job market, as well as housing and commercial real estate stock, availability, prices and absorption. Further understanding of market conditions will be drawn from conversations with stakeholders such as the SUBASE and Electric Boat, other major business and property owners, community groups and realtors. Existing Transportation Conditions The data collection phase of the project provides the information necessary to enable the Team to develop an understanding of the current issues that affect the Electric Boat and SUBASE sites and provides the building blocks for the assessment of existing and future conditions and development of options for improving both the existing identified deficiencies and future areas of concern. Prior to collecting new data, Tighe & Bond will consult with the Town and City of Groton, CTDOT and SCCOG to obtain record data for the study area. In support of the transportation analyses, data collection activities may include the following: 1. Conduct a field visit to the study area around the SUBASE and Electric Boat to develop an understanding of the local roadway network, alternative travel mode facilities, review traffic operations, geometrics, access management, etc. 2. Collect several days (including a Saturday) of the following automatic traffic recorder data at two to three locations to support the transportation planning efforts and to provide a broad understanding of the travel patterns and vehicles traveling along relevant corridors: a. Hourly directional traffic volumes data. b. Directional travel speed data. c. Vehicle classification data. 3. Traffic operations at select study intersections will provide one of the critical metrics that will inform the development of improvement recommendations. To support the development of the traffic model and capacity analyses, as well as to estimate the current peak hour trip generation for the SUBBASE and Electric Boat, we may collect intersection turning movement data during the following peak hours at up to 15 intersections: a. 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM morning commuter peak b. 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM afternoon commuter peak c. Electric Boat afternoon shift change peak (if necessary) Actual hours of the traffic count may be adjusted based on feedback from the SUBBASE and Electric Boat relative to their peak times of traffic activity, including the Electric Boat midafternoon shift change peak. 4

5 4. We will obtain the current traffic control signal permit plans and current signal timing settings from the CTDOT Division of Traffic Engineering and the municipalities, if applicable, for use in the development of a traffic model for the corridors. 5. To understand how the arterial corridors are currently operating and to assist with the calibration of the traffic analysis model, we will conduct peak period travel time studies between key SUBBASE and Electric Boat entry points and I-95 northbound and southbound highway movements. These travel time studies will advise the team of sections along the corridor where traffic progression could be constrained during the peak travel periods. We will conduct travel time surveys as needed, per direction per peak hour, to establish representative operational characteristics along the key corridors. 6. Safety Assessment. Tighe & Bond will obtain data from the Connecticut Crash Data Repository and contact local police to request historical collision data for the local study area for the most recent three-year period. Analysis may involve the following: a. Review the vehicle crash data to identify any apparent patterns in the locations, types, and number of incidents that may exhibit a deficient condition and warrant further review and possibly remedial actions under the proposed improvements to mitigate safety issues. b. Review the collision history data and review several safety metrics that facilitate the identification of locations that exhibit the need for further study to determine if mitigation is needed to correct deficiencies. Prepare a narrative summarizing the analyses. c. Review data related specifically to pedestrian and bicycle accidents and provide a narrative related to these alternative modes. d. If findings identify areas of concern, we will conduct additional field visits to facilitate further investigation of the issues to help inform the assessment of both the contributing factors and potential remedial measures. Preparation of collision diagrams and performance of detailed safety focused evaluations, such as road safety audits, are not included in the scope. 7. Traffic Operations Analysis. The traffic data will be used to develop a traffic analysis framework based on the latest methodologies recommended by the Highway Capacity Manual. Detailed analyses will be performed under the existing conditions to identify opportunities to improve transportation conditions around the SUBASE and Electric Boat. The traffic engineering activities include the analysis of traffic operations in the study area to identify traffic operations issues. These analyses may be conducted system-wide for overall corridor progression analyses for the scenarios described below: a. Review the existing balanced traffic volumes, existing roadway geometry, and existing traffic signal operations and timings from field observations and signal plans. 5

6 b. Prepare traffic volume figures for each of the peak hour analysis periods based on the balanced, existing volumes. c. Develop a traffic operations model using Synchro 8 Software based on the existing roadway conditions, observed traffic patterns and traffic volumes. We will calibrate the traffic model based on observed field conditions. Summarize the results of the analyses in tabular form including Level of Service (LOS), average delay, v/c ratios, and 50th and 95th percentile queuing lengths. Existing Transit Conditions In this task, ASG Planning will document existing transit conditions, including local SEAT services, private shuttles, transfer points and regional connections. The Team will map these services, as well as other alternative transportation modes (e.g. bike facilities) and key activity centers. This documentation will include meetings with representatives from SEAT, the SUBASE, Electric Boat and others with a stake in local transit services. These meetings will occur either directly, or through the stakeholder engagement process. This effort will document the status of the 2016 SEAT study recommendations, identify any recent or planned service changes, and obtain recent ridership data (if available). It will also be used to better understand and document particular transit needs, constraints and opportunities at the SUBASE, Electric Boat and surrounding areas, and for other key stakeholders. Using the assessment of existing land uses, demographics and market conditions conducted by other Team members, ASG Planning will identify areas with current market potential to support potentially higher levels of public transit service, and gaps in service. At the conclusion of Task 3.1, Tighe & Bond and ASG Planning will compile a brief technical memo of existing conditions, to provide a baseline for analysis of future conditions. 3.2 ANALYSIS OF FUTURE REGIONAL HOUSING EXPANSION Future Market Conditions and Housing Urbanomics will prepare a socioeconomic forecast of population and employment based on existing projections prepared by SCCOG and the Connecticut State Data Center, re-benchmarked to reflect business expansions and other developments in the pipeline. Based on this baseline analysis, Urbanomics will undertake the following tasks: 1. Housing Demand. A regional housing demand analysis will be prepared for the SCCOG region. Overall regional demand will be drawn from the SCCOG cohort-survival forecasts (adjusted to reflect the time frame) and the SECHA 2018 housing demand report. Both of the baseline analyses will be expanded to reflect data updates in terms of housing development and more recent vacancy rates and newly announced employment plans from Electric Boat and the SUBASE as well as other employment centers. 6

7 2. Buildout Analysis. Buildout potential for new housing construction will be determined throughout the region through spatial analysis. ArcGIS will be used to process vacant and underutilized parcels by allowable structure type (single or multi-family) and turnover of senioroccupied housing units, as well as developments currently in the pipeline to determine the overall potential for housing construction. Locational demand is expected to spread from the employment centers outward, with the distribution of future households adjusted to reflect suitability to housing by type to the geographic area as well as housing choice. 3.3 FUTURE TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT SYSTEM ASSESSMENT Transportation System Assessment Based on the anticipated future changes in land use, employment, demographics and other area conditions as documented by Urbanomics, the Team will estimate additional burdens to the roadway systems as a result of additional work-related travel. These will be translated into estimates of additional demand for transit service, based on current mode share, as well as potential increases in regional mode share if service enhancements were implemented. Identifying recommendations for improvements are anticipated to include the following activities: 1. Future Traffic Projections. Future traffic considers the general growth of traffic on the study roadways as well as planned projects and other traffic generating development identified by local and state review agencies. Additionally, the traffic that may be generated by re-zoning, employment growth at the SUBASE and Electric Boat, and other long-range planning initiatives, will be added to the background growth. The following activities will be conducted to estimate future traffic: a. Based on land use planning activities, prepare a trip generation model for the study area by performing the following tasks: Expanding the existing traffic volumes on the study area roadways to reflect a conservative level of background growth from existing conditions to the design year for the future condition assessment. Background traffic growth will be coordinated with CTDOT and the communities. A regional travel demand model will review the land use assumptions and estimate new regional trips with an origin or destination at the SUBASE and Electric Boat. A local model that assigns new traffic to the roadway system accessing the SUBASE and Electric Boat will be developed to provide an understanding of the future trip distribution across the local roadway network. New trips will be assigned to the peak hours in addition to one shift change peak that may place a strain on the transportation system. In general, the study will review a morning commuter peak, an afternoon commuter peak hour, and possibly a midafternoon shift changes peak hour in order to identify the periods when the growth associated with the submarine industry correlates with daily travel demand. 7

8 2. Traffic Operations Analysis. Future traffic volumes will be used to develop a traffic analysis framework based on the latest methodologies recommended by the Highway Capacity Manual. Detailed analysis will be performed under the future conditions to identify opportunities to improve transportation conditions around the SUBASE and Electric Boat under forecast conditions. The following scenarios will be considered: Future Conditions without Improvements (No-Build): The analysis results therefore represent the outcome of future traffic growth (general traffic expansion, land use changes and employment changes) and no traffic improvements to serve as a baseline for identification of planned improvements to mitigate the No-Build areas of concern. Future Conditions with Improvements (Build): Based on the analyses for the Existing and No- Build conditions and informed by the findings of the other related tasks in the proposal, Tighe & Bond will perform traffic analyses to identify potential improvement measures that may be necessary to address traffic operational deficiencies. A comparison of the No-Build and Build conditions results will illustrate the effect of the physical improvements on the efficiency of the transportation system. A Build conditions analysis will be prepared to assess the effectiveness of the improvement concepts developed for potential traffic capacity and operational enhancements. The traffic operations analysis may include the following activities: a. Prepare future traffic volume figures for each of the peak hour analyses. b. Based on the future traffic volumes, conduct an analysis of future traffic operations for the study area intersections under the same peak periods reviewed under the existing condition assessment. The existing traffic model will be updated and revised to reflect the future scenarios. The analyses will seek to identify the following: Changes in the operational characteristics of the study area roadways as measured by changes in level of service and changes in queuing at the study area intersections. Potential areas of concern under future traffic loading that do not currently exist under existing conditions. Potential improvements to mitigate the effects of the area growth. c. We will summarize and tabulate the results of the analyses to facilitate a comparative assessment of the analysis scenarios and improvement alternatives considered. The narrative will support the development of the corridor transportation planning study deliverable. d. Following the identification of improvement alternatives, we will conduct a final analysis of the improved Build condition roadway network to establish the operational characteristics in the future. e. Summarize the results of the traffic modeling in the both in tabular and narrative format to provide a discussion on the results. 8

9 3. Assessment of Conceptual Transportation System Improvements Based on the results of the future No-Build assessment, physical improvements may be necessary to mitigate the effects on the local roadway network of the anticipated growth of the region. Furthermore, future transit improvements and initiatives may be the catalyst for supportive improvements to the transportation system. Finally, as the importance of alternative travel modes increases from both a transportation and recreation perspective, the study will investigate opportunities to provide connectivity between population centers, shopping, and entertainment. Tighe & Bond will identify, prepare, and screen potential improvement concepts within the study area to support the future conditions, including reviewing and identifying opportunities for alternative travel mode facilities within the key transportation corridors. Conceptual sketches would include depiction of features such as travel lanes, shoulders, sidewalks, bicycle accommodation (including, if appropriate, consideration of alternatives such as cycle tracks, buffered bike lanes and bike accommodating shoulders), transit stops and approximate location of access points to abutting properties along the corridor. If appropriate, we may also consider bicycle/pedestrian infrastructure linkages and consider regional connectivity for alternate travel modes. In support of the transit-focused initiatives and in coordination with the transit planning efforts, develop conceptual sketches illustrating potential improvements and enhancements to the transit system at the local level. Opportunities may include a transportation hub, bus turnout concepts, bus lanes and bus stop amenities including sidewalks, shelters, etc. Lastly, Tighe & Bond will test the various alternatives to determine if they meet the project goals and objectives, are feasible and implementable and improve access and mobility around the SUBBASE and Electric Boat. Based on the conceptual design and the analyses, preferred alternatives will be identified and detailed under this task. The recommended improvements will take into consideration the recommendations related to roadway improvements, bike and pedestrian facility improvements and transit facility enhancements and accommodations. Develop illustrative roadway cross-sections that describe the elements of the proposed roadway section. The illustrative cross-sections may include bike lanes, sidewalk enhancements, and travel lane dimensions. The cross-sections will also indicate potential landscaping opportunities within the context of the roadway improvements. We will assess the private property impacts associated with the proposed improvements, identifying any partial or total property takings that may be required to implement the recommendations. Tighe & Bond will summarize the property impacts in the documentation. Develop an opinion of probable cost for each of the recommendations. We will also identify order of magnitude costs related to utility relocations that would result from proposed improvements. 9

10 4. Transit Strategies Based on the existing conditions analysis and the analysis of future conditions, ASG Planning will develop a range of potential transit strategies to address identified transit needs. These could include new or modified SEAT routes, private shuttles, schedule changes (frequency, span), as well as capital investments (hubs, shelters, real-time information, vehicles) and transit supportive policies. The overall feasibility and viability of these strategies will be assessed and discussed with the JLUS Implementation Committee. Based on feedback from the committee, ASG Planning will combine the desired and viable transit strategies into three (3) transit service alternatives intended to address identified needs. For each alternative, the project team will map proposed routes and identify: Service provider and vehicle type (SEAT bus, private shuttle, etc.); Operations plan and additional service hours; and Necessary infrastructure, policies or coordination to support these strategies. ASG Planning will evaluate these transit service alternatives by estimating vehicle requirements, cost of service and estimated ridership demand for each concept, as well as other potential benefits and impacts (e.g. elimination of transfers, direct connection between key job centers, etc.). Ridership will be estimated using standard elasticities and other factors. The 2016 SEAT Bus Study will be reviewed, and assumptions from the financial model used to estimate the cost impacts of the 2016 recommendations (Service Expansion Plan C ) will be replicated to estimate cost impacts of the Final SUBASE Transit Plan. Cost factors can be updated to use current SEAT operating costs per revenue mile/hour. Outputs will include: Net increase in revenue hours + Total annual revenues hours Net increase in revenue miles + Total annual revenue miles Anticipated net increase in passenger revenues + Total annual passenger revenues Net impact on annual SEAT operating budget Updated Service Expansion Plan map Phase 3 Deliverables: Existing conditions technical memo on regional land use, socioeconomics, and transportation, including maps and other graphics as needed Projected regional housing and future transportation and transit conditions memo, including maps and other graphics as needed 10

11 PHASE 4: DRAFT AND FINAL DELIVERABLES 4.1 FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY AND DRAFT HOUSING PLAN Recommendations will be developed for the type, quantity and location of new housing that would help to meet demand, and the ability of the private market to provide this type of housing. It is likely that much of the housing demand will be workforce housing, to reflect the average Electric Boat wage of $22 an hour ($45,000 a year). The age and family status of EB s new hires will prove a determinant in housing choices as well. For example, young, single employees may prefer lower cost multifamily apartments in a downtown area, while employees with families could prefer single-family homes. Recommendations on development of housing types will take into account existing densities, amenities and transit access in order to avoid, to the extent possible, worsening traffic conditions. Urbanomics will compile a summary of the previous analysis of future housing demand, buildout potential and recommendations on the number, location and types of new housing units. The memo will contain an appendix of background documentation and analysis, with a focus on compiling recommendations that prioritize growth management and preservation of community character. 4.2 DRAFT TRANSPORTATION AND TRANSIT IMPROVEMENTS PLAN The Team will prepare an initial draft report that summarizes the results of the regional transportation system assessment and the recommended transit strategies for client review and comment. Based on client feedback, the Team will prepare a final draft report, including a technical appendix that provides the supporting documentation and calculations for the analysis presented in the report. The conceptual improvement alternatives will also be included in the report. 4.3 FINAL REVIEW AND EDITS Based on feedback from the JLUS Implementation Committee, stakeholders and the public, the Team will complete all necessary edits to the Housing Study, Draft Regional Transportation Plan and SEAT bus study amendment. The Final Plan will present a road map of both near- and longer-term actions and transit improvements to better connect the SUBASE, Electric Boat, Pfizer, UCONN Avery Point and other key activity centers in the region. We will review all draft deliverables a final time with the Committee in order to finalize them for presentation at a formal public meeting of the SCCOG. 4.4 PUBLIC MEETING AND PUBLIC REVIEW The BFJ Team will be available to help present the draft Housing Study, Regional Transportation Plan and SEAT bus study amendments to the public at a formal hearing of the SCCOG. Both documents will also be available for public review and comment, in accordance with SCCOG s regulations and practice. 11

12 4.5 APPROVAL OF REGIONAL HOUSING STUDY, TRANSPORTATION PLAN AND AMENDED SEAT BUS STUDY After reviewing with the Committee all comments received from the public and relevant stakeholders, the BFJ Team will incorporate any necessary changes to the Housing Plan, Transit Plan and SEAT bus study, as needed to prepare them for approval by the SCCOG. Phase 4 Deliverables: Draft and Final Regional Housing Plan Draft and Final Regional Transportation and Transit Improvements Plan Proposed Amendments to 2016 SEAT bus study SCCOG Public Meeting, including all necessary materials and summary of comments ADMINISTRATION BFJ will provide monthly invoices based upon the percent of work completed. A brief report summarizing the work will accompany each invoice. 12