2040 Socioeconomic Data Forecasting and Scenario Planning Technical Memorandum Prepared For:

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1 2040 Socioeconomic Data Forecasting and Scenario Planning Technical Memorandum Prepared For: 601 East Kennedy Boulevard Tampa, FL July 9, 2014

2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Purpose Organization of the Report Key Considerations Population Forecasts (BEBR) Document Review Stakeholder Interview Guidance Population and Control Total Assumptions Summary of the Scenarios Methodology Methodology Overview... 7 Forecast Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Greenfield (Vacant Developable Land) Forecasting Procedures... 8 Vacant Developable Lands Methodology... 8 Population and Employment Allocation Methodology... 9 Allocation of Population and Employment to Traffic Analysis Zones Redevelopment Forecasting Procedures Center Forecasting Approach Bustling Metro New Corporate Centers Preferred Hybrid Scenario School Enrollment Hotel/Motel Units Review and Adjustment Process Conversion of Forecast Data to Travel Demand Model Inputs Scenario Forecasts Scenario Overview Suburban Dream Methodology and Assumptions Bustling Metro Methodology and Assumptions New Corporate Centers Methodology and Assumptions Preferred Hybrid Scenario Methodology and Assumptions Next Steps List of Figures Figure 1: Comparison of Historical and Projected Growth Rates (Hillsborough County and Florida)... 4 Figure 2: Comparison of Historical and Projected Growht Rates (Hillsborough, Florida, and Key Metro). 5 Figure 3: Land Use Allocation Process Figure 4: Redevelopment Propensity Index Criteria Technical Memorandum Page i

3 Figure 5: Scenario comparison table List of Maps Map 1: Hillsborough County Traffic Analysis Zones... 8 Map 2: Hillsborough County Planning Areas List of Appendices (provided as separate documents) Appendix A Units per Acre Appendix B Redevelopment Propensity Index (RPI) model Appendix C Calculation of Attractiveness Index Model Appendix D 2040 Suburban Dream Population and Employment Forecast Results Appendix E 2040 Bustling Metro Population and Employment Forecast Results Appendix F 2040 New Corporate Centers Population and Employment Forecast Results Appendix G The TAZs identified for transit stations Appendix H The TAZs identified as possible expansion areas for the urban service boundary. 65 Appendix I 2040 Preferred Hybrid: Population and Employment Forecast Results Final Document Page ii

4 1.0 Introduction The Hillsborough County Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for coordinating transportation planning for Hillsborough County. As part of this effort, the MPO is responsible for updating the federally mandated Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) every five years. Related to the 2040 LRTP update, the Planning Commission is also working on simultaneous updates for the Comprehensive Plans for Plant City, Temple Terrace, Tampa and Unincorporated Hillsborough County. The purpose of the LRTP is to identify needed transportation improvements within the county. The Comprehensive Plan guides public policy in terms of transportation, utilities, land use, recreation, and housing. Together, these documents guide future development of the county. One of the first steps in the LTRP process is to develop a forecast of the geographic distribution of the county s population and employment over the LRTP timeframe. These socioeconomic data document anticipated population and employment concentrations and are used to forecast future travel patterns. Because public policy and transportation investment decisions can influence how the county grows, the MPO planning staff, with the assistance of the Planning Commission and other community members and stakeholders, began the LRTP planning process by drafting a series of 2040 population and employment forecasts identified as Alternative Futures for Hillsborough County. These alternative forecasts start by using the population and employment data from 2010 as a basis. Then, population and employee growth based on population projections developed by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) and the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) were allocated to show how population and employees could be distributed in the future based on different assumptions and community values. This effort resulted in the development of three alternative futures scenarios for 2040, described briefly below. Based on an extensive public engagement and preference survey process, a final preferred scenario was developed using elements of the three alternatives: Suburban Dream is primarily low density residential growth with employment spread across the county. This vision, because it tends towards low density residential development, will consume the most agricultural and rural land of the three. Bustling Metro is a much higher density approach to residential development, occuring closer to the urban centers. Employment occurs primarily in the existing economic centers. These factors result in little demand to expand the Urban Service Area boundary, and agricultural and rural lands are protected. New Corporate Centers envisions somewhat denser residential development, with most new jobs created in identified job centers. There may be a moderate need to expand the Urban Service Area boundary around the interstate highway and interchanges to accommodate these centers. Because much of the residential growth will continue in a suburban pattern, some agricultural and rural lands will consumed by development. The data sets and scenarios represent a cooperative effort among the Hillsborough MPO, FDOT District 7, local municipalities and the local government jurisdictions in Hillsborough County. The scenarios were also reviewed by the public. The MPO engaged the community in a series of workshops and online survey to gather feedback on the three scenarios and help identify the characteristics that should be included in the final preferred Hybrid Scenario. Technical Memorandum Page 1

5 1.1 Purpose The purpose of this report is to document the assumptions, methodology, and resulting forecast scenario for input into the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Model (TRBPM). The TRBPM uses existing and forecasted population and employment data to predict travel patterns and thereby identify the demand for transportation system investments. 1.2 Organization of the Report This report is organized into four chapters. The first chapter describes the key considerations, the base data, and background research. Chapter 2 describes the methodology for allocating the different types of development. Chapter 3 details the different alternative future forecasts that were developed by the MPO and its stakeholders. The final chapter describes the preferred hybrid scenario. 1.3 Key Considerations Key considerations for the development of the alternative socioeconomic forecast scenarios begin with the population forecast provided by BEBR but also consider past planning studies and initiatives as well as the input of knowledgeable public and private sector stakeholders. These considerations apply to both the overall amount of population and employment growth expected during the planning timeframe as well as to how that growth should be allocated throughout the county. The combination of these factors was used to establish different population and employment growth control totals for each of the alternative scenarios. 1.4 Population Forecasts (BEBR) Historically, Hillsborough County population has grown by more than two percent per year. While annual growth rates decreased in the short term due to the Great Recession, recent data suggest that the county is now experiencing a recovery home sales are increasing and unemployment rates are decreasing. According to the BEBR s medium forecast, Hillsborough County is expected to add nearly 600,000 persons from 2010 to The middle range of BEBR s population projections is used in planning efforts such as this one. Table 1 shows the BEBR population forecasts for Hillsborough County. Table 1: BEBR Population Forecast Projections for Hillsborough County Growth Low 1,129,226 1,358,000 1,440, ,074 Medium 1,129,226 1,543,100 1,823, ,974 High 1,129,226 1,728,300 2,206, ,874 Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March Document Review To better understand the vision for the future of Hillsborough County, the following documents were reviewed: Locational Assessment and Recommended Strategic Plan for Economic Growth, (Tampa Hillsborough Economic Development Corporation, (2010); Economic Potential Evaluation of the Future of Hillsborough County Comprehensive Plan(Hillsborough County City County Planning Commission, 2011); Economic Development Area Analysis & Mapping (Imagine 2035) (Hillsborough County City County Planning Commission, 2011); Technical Memorandum Page 2

6 Economic Prosperity Stakeholder Committee Recommendations (Economic Prosperity Stakeholder Committee, 2012) Northeast Plant City Area Master Plan (City of Plant City, Hillsborough County City County Planning Commission, Hillsborough County MPO, 2008); I 4 Economic Corridor Study (Hillsborough County City County Planning Commission,2009); various Comprehensive Plans (Unincorporated Hillsborough County, Tampa, and the cities of Plant City and Temple Terrace) State of the Port (Tampa Port Authority, 2012); Urban Service Area Capacity Study (University of South Florida, 2011); and the Comprehensive Plan Density Analysis Report, developed ( University of South Florida, 2005) There are a number of common themes in these documents, and they all support the vision of an economically vibrant Hillsborough County. To this end, they identify both opportunities and challenges with the current ways of doing business. Opportunities include diverse economic development areas and strong institutional drivers throughout the region. Challenges include some of the current policies and a lack of overall comprehensive economic development strategy. The initial alternative futures, as well as the preferred Hybrid Scenario identified by the MPO staff and its stakeholders reflect different ways the county can develop based on an overall vision of transportation and land use. 1.6 Stakeholder Interview Guidance Early in the project, Hillsborough County MPO staff identified stakeholders to be interviewed about the Long Range Transportation Plan and the challenges relating to population and job growth facing the county. The following individuals were asked to identify areas of growth and what types of growth and development they felt were appropriate. They were also asked about job creation initiatives, infrastructure investments, and redevelopment opportunities and challenges that may be faced by the county as it continues to grow. Table 2: Stakeholders Interviewed Stakeholders Interviewed Lucia Garsys, with Gene Boles, Mike Williams Brad Parrish, Charles Stephenson Greg Horwedel Brian Grady, Joe Mareda, Frank Braux, Paula Harvey Ron Barton Bob McDonaugh; CRA Directors Vince Pardo, Ed Johnson, Jeannette Fenton Rick Homans Cathy Coyle (Randy Goers,Thom Snelling) Jennifer Doerfel Jeff Rogo Bruce Erhardt Kami Corbett and/or Keith Bricklemeyer, Michael Brooks Ron Rotella, with Al Austin and/or other major private interests Chris Burdick Rick Harcrow Dave Mechanik Jerome Ryans and Leroy Moore Agency Hillsborough County City of Temple Terrace City of Plant City Hillsborough County Hillsborough County City of Tampa Tampa Hillsborough EDC City of Tampa Tampa Bay Builders Association Bay Area Apartment Association Cushman & Wakefield NAIOP Westshore Alliance Downtown Partnership Newland Communities Florida Fairgrounds Tampa Housing Authority Technical Memorandum Page 3

7 1.7 Population and Control Total Assumptions As noted above, the BEBR Medium population estimate has traditionally been used as the basis for LRTP socioeconomic forecasting; however, several factors suggested the use of alternative, lower growth forecasts for some of the alternative scenarios. These factors include: uncertainty on how quickly Florida s economy (and related growth) will recover following the Great Recession questions of how land supply and land use policy may affect the county s growth forecast questions related to the relationship between the county s growth rate and the growth rate of the state as a whole questions regarding how overall regional growth will be distributed among counties in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area To understand these issues, it is helpful to look at both historical and projected growth in Hillsborough County compared to Florida and other large, metro counties. Figure 1 compares Hillsborough County s growth rate per decade to the statewide growth rate. In general, the shape of the Hillsborough County curve mimics the statewide curve from the 1970 through 2000 when the state grew quickly, the county grew quickly as well, albeit at a slower rate than the state as a whole. From 2000 to 2010, however, the relationship reverses with the Hillsborough County s growing at a faster rate than the state as a whole. Projecting forward from 2010, the BEBR Medium estimate maintains the county s relatively higher growth rate as a starting position and then trends the county s rate downward in a way that suggests parity with the state s growth rate sometime beyond the 2040 planning timeframe. By locking in the (relatively) higher growth rate experienced by Hillsborough from 2000 to 2010 and only gradually setting Hillsborough County s growth rate to intercept with the state s, the BEBR Medium projection implies a structural shift in how statewide population growth will be allocated going forward. Otherwise, Hillsborough County could regress to the mean or resume its status as growing more slowly than the state on average. Figure 1: Comparison of Historical and Projected Growth Rates (Hillsborough County and Florida) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hillsborough Growth Rate Florida Growth Rate Technical Memorandum Page 4

8 To better understand the shift implied by the Hillsborough County forecast, it is helpful to look at the history and forecasts of other metropolitan counties. Figure 2 adds the combined growth rates for Miami Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties to the graph as well as the historical and projected growth for Orange County. From these data, the cause in the shift in Hillsborough County s projected growth rate relative to the state as a whole is apparent Southeast Florida can no longer absorb the statewide demand in the way it did prior to the 1980s, and other counties are expected to grow more quickly relative to the state as a result. Figure 2: Comparison of Historical and Projected Growht Rates (Hillsborough, Florida, and Key Metro) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hillsborough Growth Rate Florida Growth Rate Orange Dade, Broward, Palm Beach More explicitly, the seven most populous counties Miami Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas, and Duval account for more than 50 percent of the state s total population. Of these dominant metro counties, the three Southeast Florida counties and Pinellas County are very nearly out of vacant, developable land. Conventional wisdom suggests that infill and redevelopment is more costly and harder to mass produce than the greenfield development that has dominated Florida since the 1950s, and, therefore, these counties will not grow as quickly going forward as they did in the past. Assuming that the statewide growth forecast is correct, the impact of this is that Hillsborough and Orange counties, as well as other Tampa Bay, Southwest, and Central Florida counties such as Lee, Polk, and Pasco, will absorb a proportionally greater share of Florida s growth than was the case prior to While this macro level analysis suggests that Hillsborough County will maintain the posture established from 2000 to 2010 and grow at a faster rate than the state going forward, other considerations suggest that a more moderate growth rate is likely. One such factor is the extent to which the development of residential estate housing outside of the urban services boundary is costfeasible. If the higher land and horizontal infrastructure costs of this development form, compared with small lot single family detached development, cannot be sustained by the market, the demand for housing assumed by the BEBR Medium forecast may not be satisfied. With only the remaining land within the urban services boundary available for greenfield development, more development will be concentrated in the urban centers; however, as with the Southeast Florida case, this development will occur more slowly than the growth rates estimated in the BEBR Medium estimate. For this reason, an Technical Memorandum Page 5

9 average of the BEBR Low and BEBR Medium estimates was considered in two of the Alternative Scenarios. Along similar lines, growth allocated in the Tampa Bay region by the BEBR Medium forecast may shift between counties in the region. The combined 2040 BEBR Medium forecast for Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco counties is approximately 3,477,000 persons, reflecting a projected increase of approximately 866,500. However, the growth forecasts likely to be promulgated as part of Pinellas and Pasco s LRTPs are more aggressive than the BEBR Medium forecasts for those counties and combined account for 656,000 new persons. If growth in these two counties is balanced between the BEBR High that these counties are forecasting with their default (BEBR Medium forecasts), then the remainder of the BEBR Medium forecast for the region again suggests that an average between BEBR Low and BEBR Medium may be a reasonable alternative for Hillsborough County. From the perspective of employment growth, Hillsborough County is expected to continue as the principal employment center in the region and, as the county grows in population, it is normal for the ratio of jobs to population to increase somewhat. However, as the Pasco County SR 54 Corridor and Pinellas County Gandy Gateway areas become more competitive, a greater share of the region s jobs may accrue to these counties especially without action to facilitate the development of additional employment centers within Hillsborough County. These assumptions have led to different control totals as the basis for the three Alternative Scenarios and the Preferred Scenario discussed below. Additional information regarding the individual forecasts is provided in Chapter 3 of this report. 1.8 Summary of the Scenarios Each of the scenarios describes a possible future for Hillsborugh County. Different areas of emphasis were identified for each of the first three which led to a Preferred Scenario. Table 3 compares the employment and population growth for each vision as well as the Preferred Hybrid. Table 3: Summary of Scenarios Scenario Growth Suburban Dream Population 1,229,226 1,823, ,974 Employment 711,400 1,094, ,738 Bustling Metro Population 1,229,226 1,631, ,524 Employment 711,400 1,094, ,738 New Corporate Centers Population 1,229,226 1,631, ,524 Employment 711,400 1,145, ,795 Preferred Hybrid Population 1,229,226 1,815, ,738 Scenario Employment 711,400 1,112, ,659 Technical Memorandum Page 6

10 2.0 Methodology 2.1 Methodology Overview This section describes the methodology of the Land Use Allocation tool and how population and employment were allocated when special circumstances did not require manual intervention. This methodology applies to all four scenarios. Any differences in application of the methodology will be noted in the appropriate section. Forecast Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) This methodology was used to develop population and employment forecasts at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and TAZs are a basic geographic unit for studying demographic and land use data within a study area. The employment forecast included the three broad groupings of employment categories: Industrial, Commercial, and Service. Once the forecasts of the three standard employment categories are complete, this information will be included in the TBRPM travel demand model to predict travel patterns. FDOT is currently developing a more refined Activity Based Model (ABM) that will predict when specific travel occurs for individuals to activities such as work, shopping, leisure, etc. and allows for trip chaining travel patterns in which travel to multiple locations are linked together into one trip to be forecasted. The three employment categories will be expanded into nine to be used for modeling through the ABM. Control totals of countywide employment by category were developed from the methodology and results described in the previous section of this report. As previously described, the base of the population and employment data forecasts was a 2010 population and employment data file developed by FDOT. Population and employment growth was then allocated to the TAZ level. Each TAZ has an ability to accommodate growth based on its future land use and ability to accommodate or attract development. This methodology is described in the following sections. The 2010 TAZ zonal structure is illustrated in Map 1. Technical Memorandum Page 7

11 Map 1: Hillsborough County Traffic Analysis Zones 2.2 Greenfield (Vacant Developable Land) Forecasting Procedures Using the approved control totals for population and employment, the initial allocation of population, dwelling units, and employment for the Industrial, Service and Commercial categories was made using the methodology discussed in the previous section. This included an allocation for approved development and an allocation to vacant lands. Vacant Developable Lands Methodology The first step in determining a TAZ s growth potential was to quantify the amount of vacant developable acres by Future Land Use category. This was done using information from the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser's files. Land was determined to be vacant by using the Department of Revenue (DOR) code. In addition, single residential parcels greater than five acres were also considered as vacant due to the potential for being subdivided into additional residential parcels for development in the Technical Memorandum Page 8

12 future. When this occurred, the parcel was treated as partially vacant and available for development even though it had a structure on it. Once the vacant land by TAZ was determined, the following adjustments were made to calculate the total developable land by Future Land Use Category: Roadway right of way acreage was removed, Government owned properties were removed, Conservation and environmentally sensitive areas were removed; and Wetlands were removed based on the National Wetlands Inventory maintained by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service. The adjustments resulted in the vacant developable acres by Future Land Use category by TAZ. Appendix A contains a listing of the vacant developable acres by TAZ and Future Land Use Category. Estimated land use densities and multiplier factors were applied to unoccupied developable land based on what is expected to reasonably occur. The factors were applied because many land use categories do not develop at their maximum allowable levels. For example, if a specific TAZ has 10 acres of unoccupied developable land designated for residential uses at an approved density of 2 dwelling units per acre and a multiplier factor of 80%, the maximum allowable number of new dwelling units for this TAZ is 16 dwelling units. Employment intensities were applied to developable acreage of land uses that generate employees (commercial, industrial, and service). If there was a mix of uses allowed in the Future Land Use category of a particular parcel, assumptions were made related to the make up of allowed land uses. The percentages differ based on the different land use categories that allow a mix of uses. From this information, allowable employee growth was estimated. Land use densities were obtained from the Countywide Future Land Use Plan and Hillsborough County and Jurisdictional staff, as well as from the relationship of general land use densities provided in the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual (7th Edition). These densities and intensities are illustrated in Appendix A. The land use densities contained in the Countywide Future Land Use Plan were adjusted to reflect existing built out densities within Hillsborough County. Reduction factors were applied to reflect more reasonable densities, as frequently parcels are not built out to the maximum allowable densities. The maximum development for each TAZ was estimated by adding the allowable growth to the existing land use components (from 2010 county population, dwelling units, and employment categories). The maximum development was used to determine if the allocated growth was physically possible within the TAZ. If the growth was not possible, the model reallocated it to other TAZs. Population and Employment Allocation Methodology The allocation methodology for population and employment to vacant developable lands was accomplished using a multi step process that culminated in the allocation of growth based on the results of a gravity model. The process used to complete the allocation to vacant developable land is illustrated in Figure 3. The gravity model distributes growth based on the mass (or attractiveness) of a TAZ multiplied by the mass of an activity centroid divided by the square of the distance between the two. The results of the TAZ distribution were reviewed in several meetings with staff from the Hillsborough MPO, Hillsborough County, and staff from the local municipalities. Where appropriate, adjustments were made to individual TAZs based on the feedback received from staff. Technical Memorandum Page 9

13 Figure 3: Land Use Allocation Process Identification of Planning Areas and Centroids The County is delineated into 25 Planning Areas developed by Hillsborough County staff. Planning Areas represent a set of TAZs that have been grouped together based on a number of factors: Hillsborough County Planning Areas City boundaries City of Tampa Impact Fee Districts These Planning Areas are illustrated in Map 2. Technical Memorandum Page 10

14 Map 2: Hillsborough County Planning Areas Activity centroids were developed for each Planning Area for dwelling units and for industrial, commercial, and service employment. The activity centroids were found by weighting the geographic center of each TAZ by these land use components (dwelling units and industrial, commercial, and service employment) within the Planning Area for the year Stated another way, each TAZ has its own weighted centroid for each category. Centroids were calculated for each Planning Area based on the location of the existing units, which relates to population, as well as for each of the three employment categories based on the weighted centroids for each TAZ. The weighted geographic centers of each TAZ were then combined to find the center of mass for each Planning Area for population and the individual employment categories. Thus, the centroid of the Planning Area does not represent the geographical center of the area, but, rather, a more realistic center based on the existing concentration of each land use component. Generally, these centroids represent locations of existing urbanized development or locations that will Technical Memorandum Page 11

15 likely become more urbanized in the future. Due to the concentric allocation procedure, it was not necessary to redefine regions or centroids for each planning year of the socioeconomic data sets. The allocation methodology simulates compact growth patterns from the centroid of the Planning Area outward. Calculation of Attractiveness Index As mentioned previously, the land use allocation process was based on a gravity model concept. An attractiveness index was found for each TAZ and divided by the sum of all the Attractiveness Indexes for each TAZ. This ratio was then multiplied by the growth increment for the specific year to determine the quantity of growth to allocate to each TAZ. If the sum of existing development plus the allocated growth exceeded the maximum development in the TAZ, then the model reallocated the growth to other TAZs. The maximum allowable development in a TAZ can be exceeded by applying a manual adjustment within the spreadsheet. The Attractiveness Index is described in further detail in the Appendix. Permanent and Household Population For the purposes of this analysis only the permanent population residents living in the region for more than six months per year was forecasted. Permanent population includes Household population and Group Quarters population. The U.S. Census Bureau defines Household population as all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. A housing unit, according to the U.S. Census Bureau is: a house, an apartment, a mobile home or trailer, a group of rooms, or a single room occupied as separate living quarters, or if vacant, intended for occupancy as separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those in which the occupants live separately from any other individuals in the building and which have direct access from outside the building or through a common hall... The U.S. Census Bureau also describes: all people not living in households as living in group quarters. There are two types of group quarters: institutional (for example, correctional facilities, nursing homes, and mental hospitals) and non institutional (for example, college dormitories, military barracks, group homes, missions, and shelters). Attention is directed to the fact that seasonal population is included in the travel demand model through adjustments to the dwelling unit vacancy rates. Allocation of Population and Employment to Traffic Analysis Zones Based on the control totals and maximum allowable development for each TAZ, dwelling units and employment were allocated to each TAZ. The allocation was based on an iterative process that uses the attractiveness index in combination with how close the TAZ is to the Planning Area s centroid. This process simulates compact urban development by first allocating growth to, or filling, TAZs closest to each Planning Area s centroid. Manual adjustments or overrides to the allocation process were then made, as necessary, to reflect projected growth in areas approved for large scale developments such as DRIs and Master Planned Unit Developments (MPUD). The resulting allocations were subsequently converted into socioeconomic data sets. Staff from the Planning Commission, Hillsborough County, and from the local municipalities then reviewed the initial projections. This was accomplished with interactive working sessions using a series Technical Memorandum Page 12

16 of maps illustrating the increment of growth in dwelling units, and service, commercial, and industrial employment for each planning year horizon. 2.3 Redevelopment Forecasting Procedures Growth in commercial and service employment categories was allocated to vacant developable areas as well as areas with redevelopment potential. Redevelopment is considered a change in property use that results in a changed land use type (residential to commercial employment for example) or a more intensive existing land uses. The redevelopment allocation methodology is a multi step allocation procedure based on data available from the Hillsborough County MPO and the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser. The redevelopment methodology starts with a data file containing records for each parcel in Hillsborough County. These files were modified to identify land use types and TAZs. A query was tabulated to remove all vacant lands from the file since allocations of employment growth to vacant developable lands were completed using a separate methodology. The remaining records included only developed parcels. The RPI is an index score value that weights criteria related to the 1) age of structures, 2) the relationship between the value of structures and the value of the property, and 3) access to major transportation facilities and services. Figure 4: Redevelopment Propensity Index Criteria Technical Memorandum Page 13

17 2.4 Center Forecasting Approach The center forecasting approach was utilized to reflect policy and/or desired development objectives. In both cases, reflecting targeted growth within identified infill areas or new employment centers is the goal of this approach. Based on the review of plans and guidance from MPO staff, employment and population were allocated to the identified areas reflecting the emphasis on residential development for the Bustling Metro scenario and job growth in the New Corporate Centers scenario. The preferred Hybrid Scenario includes both a residential center and an employment center approach. The incorporation of this approach is outlined below for each of the three scenarios mentioned. Bustling Metro The Bustling Metro alternative future was developed to reflect a vision of Hillsborough County that integrates future development with a multimodal transportation network. A large portion of the development was directed towards station areas identified by MPO staff. Identification of these station areas is based on previous studies and the amount of development allocated to each was coordinated with the future land use plans. New Corporate Centers The New Corporate Centers alternative future was developed to analyze a future reflecting an emphasis on economic development and job creation. To assist in this analysis, jobs were added to areas of economic emphasis that had been previously identified by studies or by MPO staff. Identified target industries were also reflected in the types of jobs allocated within the industrial, service and commercial categories. Preferred Hybrid Scenario The Hybrid scenario was developed as a result of community feedback showing a preference for homes near the urban core and employment at corporate centers. Dwelling units were added to areas around potential transit stations and jobs were added to areas of economic emphasis. 2.5 School Enrollment The distribution of school enrollment in all scenarios was accomplished manually. The base year data for the population and school enrollment (private schools, public schools, and community colleges) was the 2010 Hillsborough County school enrollment file provided by FDOT. School enrollment was determined as a percent of total population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population. 2.6 Hotel/Motel Units The distribution of hotel units was accomplished manually. The base year data for the hotel/motel units was a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population. The service employment control total includes future school and hotel employees. 2.7 Review and Adjustment Process The socioeconomic data development process was supported by a series of interactive review workshops and meetings conducted by the consultant with staff from the Planning Commission, Hillsborough County, and local municipalities in the county. During these workshops, control totals and zone by zone data forecasts were reviewed. Adjustments, such as revising employment numbers in TAZs Technical Memorandum Page 14

18 that are areas of economic emphasis or reducing the percentage of industrial jobs forecast for 2040, were made to the forecasts to better define the scenario and develop the final preferred hybrid scenario. 2.8 Conversion of Forecast Data to Travel Demand Model Inputs Input into the travel demand model requires the conversion from three employment categories to five as shown in Table 4. Both commercial and service employment categories are broken down into regional and local segments; local service includes school employment. This categorization is done because the trips generated by each type of employment have certain similar characteristics shorter or longer distances for example. Zones with higher growth tend to be more regional in nature meaning the employees may travel farther to and from work. Table 4: Conversion from 3 to 5 Employment Categories 3 Categories 5 Categories Industrial No split Commercial Regional Commercial Local Commercial Service Regional Service Local Service Technical Memorandum Page 15

19 3.0 Scenario Forecasts 3.1 Scenario Overview As described earlier in this report, the Hillsborough County MPO, along with the consultant team, developed three different visions of how the county could develop. These alternative futures reflect three different ways that population, employment, and transportation related improvements could occur by the year Suburban Dream (A) is the trend or business as usual scenario and forecasts growth based on current land use policy. Residential growth continues to be mostly single family suburban development on formerly agricultural land. Infrastructure investment is focused primarily on new roadways, roadway widening, and congestion management. The Urban Service Boundary and, along with it, water and sewer systems may have to be expanded to accommodate the growth. The automobile is the primary mode of transportation. Bustling Metro Focused around Transit (B) assumes that travel patterns will change with the development of a more robust transportation system that will encourage redevelopment of land closer to urban centers. The Urban Service Area boundary is maintained as new population is accommodated near activity centers and transportation hubs. In addition to roadway investment, the County invests in additional bus and rail transit options. Jobs are added to existing employment centers, and neighborhoods are located closer to major destinations, encouraging the use of all transportation modes and shorter commute distances and time. New Corporate Centers (C) reflects an approach more oriented to developing concentrated areas of employment around the county. While primarily within the Urban Service Area boundary, employment centers were identified along I 4 and in Plant City. These new economic areas allow for diversity in employment, targeting sectors such as biotechnology and clean manufacturing. Population growth would be located mostly with the Urban Service Area boundary and near these centers and would be accommodated in a more urban growth pattern with some traditional suburban growth. 3.2 Suburban Dream Figure 5: Scenario comparison table This alternative future assumes a development pattern similar to the last 25 years, with an emphasis on accommodating growth in new suburban style communities built on previously undeveloped land. Redevelopment and rehabilitation of existing buildings, as well as urban infill, would continue to occur in limited amounts in Tampa and in surrounding older communities. Technical Memorandum Page 16

20 Methodology and Assumptions This development scenario forecasts population and employment through 2040 as if no major changes to land use policy and development regulations are implemented, other than expanding the Urban Services Area. This forecast was developed using the BEBR medium population projection, and a job to population ratio that recovers from the recession and then stabilizes. Forecasted employment for this scenario also considers a regional balance in future jobs that considers expanded job centers in Pasco and Pinellas Counties. Table 5 summarizes the population and employment projections for this scenario. The employment/population ratio is assumed to increase in the first half of the study period before leveling out in the latter half. Table 5: Suburban Dream: Countywide Population and Employment Totals Growth Household population 1,207,161 1,790, ,221 Group quarters population 22,065 32,818 10,753 Total population 1,229,226 1,823, ,974 Total employees 711,400 1,094, ,738 Employment/population ratio Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March These control totals are based on a ratio to total employment and follow statewide and national trends. According to these trends, more employment is expected to occur in the Service sector, with a reduction in the Industrial sector as summarized in Table 6 below. Industrial employment (manufacturing, warehousing, etc.) is assumed to decrease as a percentage of total employment, but will still grow by more than 62,000 employees by 2040 (approximately 20 percent of employment in 2040). Commercial employment (retail, restaurants, etc.) is also forecasted to decrease slightly as a percentage of total employment but will grow by nearly 65,000 employees (approximately 18 percent of employment in 2040). The Service employment sector (e.g., educational, medical, and professional services) is forecasted to increase as a percentage of total employment and will add more than 255,000 employees (approximately 62 percent of employment in 2040). The forecasted population and employment for Hillsborough County from 2010 to 2040 represents a growth of 48 percent for population and almost 54 percent for employment. The employment control totals were developed based on a total employee to population ratio and the assumption that unemployment will decrease and stabilize at five percent. Table 6: Suburban Dream: Countywide Employment Control Totals by Employment Type Growth Total employees 711,400 1,094, ,738 Industrial employees 156, ,828 62,228 Commercial employees 132, ,945 64,945 Service employees 422, , ,566 Industrial/total employee ratio 22% 20% Commercial/total employee ratio 19% 18% Service/total employee ratio 59% 62% School enrollment was assumed to increase in proportion to the general population. It is forecast that school enrollment for the 2040 Hillsborough County kindergarten through 12 th grade, including Technical Memorandum Page 17

21 enrollment for both public and private schools, will be 324,059, an increase of 48 percent. Higher education enrollment is forecasted for 2040 at 118,165 students, an increase of 39 percent. Table 7 summarizes the school enrollment forecasts for the Suburban Dream alternative future. Table 7: School Enrollment Totals Growth K 12 enrollment 218, , ,828 Higher education enrollment 84, ,165 33,302 Total school enrollment 303, , ,130 Table 8 summarizes the recommended hotel/motel unit forecasts for Hillsborough County. It is forecasted that there will 12,843 additional units in Hillsborough County by 2040, approximately a 56 percent increase. Table 8: Hotel/Motel Unit Control Totals Growth Hotel/motel units 22,965 35,808 12,843 The following is a list of maps documenting the distribution of population and employment growth that are provided in Appendix D. Figure 6, Suburban Dream Household Population Color Figure 7, Suburban Dream Household Population Dot Density Figure 8, Suburban Dream Total Employment Color Figure 9, Suburban Dream Total Employment Dot Density Figure 10, Suburban Dream Commercial Employment Color Figure 11, Suburban Dream Commercial Employment Dot Density Figure 12, Suburban Dream Industrial Employment Color Figure 13, Suburban Dream Industrial Employment Dot Density Figure 14, Suburban Dream Service Employment Color Figure 15, Suburban Dream Service Employment Dot Density 3.3 Bustling Metro In this alternative, redevelopment of parcels and infill in areas already developed would be the primary means of accommodating new jobs and population growth. This development pattern would be primarily urban, with an emphasis on activity centers, transit hubs, and development of a robust multimodal transportation system. The Urban Service Area might be expanded in select areas but for the most part would remain unchanged. Employment growth would be focused primarily in existing centers. Methodology and Assumptions This scenario is exploring a future for Hillsborough County that is focused on filling in the development pattern, rather than expanding it. This filling in of remaining parcels and the redevelopment of land closer to the transit system is anticipated to help slow the demand to develop outward. Accordingly, in this analysis, approximately 40 percent of the growth anticipated over the next 30 years was added to areas that were identified as having fixed guide way transit potential, using the comprehensive plan policies for transit oriented development. This additional population would be accommodated primarily by redevelopment of land in the station areas. The redevelopment of land in TAZs identified for Technical Memorandum Page 18

22 potential transit accounts for approximately 20 percent of the allocation of population. In addition to a shift in allocation towards redevelopment and infill, this scenario was developed using an average of the BEBR low and BEBR medium population projection. Forecasted employment for this scenario is based on balancing the region s future job growth as was done in the Suburban Dream Scenario. Table 9 summarizes population and employment projections for this scenario. Table 9: Bustling Metro: Population and Employment Forecast Projections Growth Household population 1,207,161 1,602, ,218 Group quarters population 22,065 29,371 7,306 Total population 1,229,226 1,631, ,524 Total employees 711,400 1,094, ,738 Employment/ population ratio Source: Florida Population Studies Volume 46, Bulletin 165, March These control totals are based on a ratio to total employment and follow statewide and national trends. Consistent with these trends, more employment is expected to occur in the Service sector with a reduction in the Industrial sector. Industrial employment (manufacturing, warehousing, etc.) is assumed to decrease as a percentage of total employment, but will still grow by more than 62,000 employees by 2040 or 40 percent. Commercial employment (retail, restaurants, etc.) is also forecasted to decrease slightly as a percentage of total employment but will also grow by more than employees or 49 percent. The Service employment sector (e.g., educational, medical, and professional services) is forecasted to increase as a percentage of total employment and will add more than 255,000 employees, or 60 percent Table 10 shows the breakdown of employment types. Table 10: Bustling Metro Focused Around Transit: Employment Totals by Type Growth Total employees 711,400 1,094, ,738 Industrial employees 156, ,828 62,228 Commercial employees 132, ,945 64,945 Service employees 422, , ,566 Industrial/total employee ratio 22% 20% Commercial/total employee ratio 19% 18% Service/total employee ratio 59% 61% School enrollment was assumed to increase in proportion to the general population. It is forecast that school enrollment for the 2040 Hillsborough County kindergarten through 12 th grade, including enrollment for both public and private schools, will be 290,031, an increase of 33 percent. Higher education enrollment is forecasted for 2040 at 105,757 students, an increase of 25 percent. The distribution of school enrollment was accomplished manually. The base year data for the population and school enrollment (private schools, public schools, and community colleges) was the 2010 Hillsborough County school enrollment file provided by FDOT. School enrollment was determined as a percent of total population based on the base year data and was grown at the same level as the population with an emphasis on the TAZs identified for population growth. Table 11 summarizes the school enrollment forecasts for Hillsborough County. Technical Memorandum Page 19

23 Table 11: School Enrollment Totals Growth K 12 enrollment 218, ,031 71,800 Higher education 84, ,757 20,894 enrollment Total school enrollment 303,09 395,788 92,694 The distribution of hotel and motel units was accomplished manually. The base year data for the hotel/motel units was a 2010 Hillsborough County hotel/motel units location file provided by FDOT. The units were grown according to the increase in population and allocated to TAZs with an emphasis on the TAZs identified for population growth. Table 12 summarizes the hotel/motel unit forecasts for Hillsborough County. It is forecasted that there will 9,083 additional units in Hillsborough County by 2040, a 39 percent increase. Table 12: Hotel/Motel Unit Control Totals Growth Hotel/motel units 22,965 32,048 9,083 The following is a list of maps documenting the distribution of population and employment growth that are provided in Appendix E. Figure 16, Bustling Metro Household Population Color Figure 17, Bustling Metro Household Population Dot Density Figure 18, Bustling Metro Total Employment Color Figure 19, Bustling Metro Total Employment Dot Density Figure 20, Bustling Metro Commercial Employment Color Figure 21, Bustling Metro Commercial Employment Dot Density Figure 22, Bustling Metro Industrial Employment Color Figure 23, Bustling Metro Industrial Employment Dot Density Figure 24, Bustling Metro Service Employment Color Figure 25, Bustling Metro Service Employment Dot Density 3.4 New Corporate Centers The third alternative focuses on economic development and job growth within the urban service boundary, but also explores expansion to areas outside the urban core along interstate highway corridors. These new economic areas allow for diversity in targeted employment sectors such as biotechnology, medicine, computer industries, and clean manufacturing. Population growth would be located mostly within the Urban Service Area boundary, with some growth occurring near these new economic centers. Methodology and Assumptions This scenario emphasizes economic growth and therefore assumes that specific areas in Hillsborough County will be targeted to encourage the development and growth of employment centers. A certain amount of residential growth would occur near these centers, but for the most part residential growth was allocated using the Land use allocation process. The employment forecast for this scenario is based maintaining a job to population ratio that recovers from the recession and then stabilizes. This ratio was based on a population forecast equal to the BEBR medium population projection. For population, Technical Memorandum Page 20

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