CANSO Global Approach to Safety. Sam Espig NATS

Transcription

1 CANSO Global Approach to Safety Performance Measurement Sam Espig NATS

2 Agenda Measures and targets CANSO Safety Strategy ICAO Aviation Safety Index Slide 2

3 Why set targets? Provide common direction Motivate people Allow direct comparison

4 The Issues

5 The Issues

6 The Issues

7 Measures and Targets

8 Measures and Targets

9 Measures and Targets

10 Measures and Targets

11 Targets and measures Measures are good But, be very careful when setting targets t Avoid setting too few targets (difficult to game since cannot draw relationship between the targets) Regulators and service providers need to ensure that targets drive the right behaviour When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Prof. Marilyn Strathern.

12 Proposed CANSO Vision In 2025, safety is: As a result there will have been no increase in the rate of risk bearing ATM incidents despite increases in traffic density and complexity

13 Understanding what makes everyday Lots of incidents operations safer mance High variation in performance? Fewer incidents Negative Outcome Occurs Move performance away from the Less variation in red line? performance? If we operate far from the red line and Reducing? we re less likely to cross it. Perfor Reduce performance variation? If our performance varies less we re less likely to cross the red line. The Past The Present The Future How to stop performance Can t Lots Fewer use of incidents data to to count inform us on how to achieve crossing this the red line? Need We Maybe measures can we re of assume operating our performance we operate further based near away on how the from we deliver red line or the since red How a safe line? So, we have probably reduced our risk (of crossing we do service, the keep we day-in, manage day-out, red line) crossing our it risk to inform us of Therefore, we operate with a higher risk (of of crossing an incident? We know our performance our performance variation, and still varies but we still can t the quantify red line) if the variation i We is large know our distance or our how performance from it is the changing. incident varies, probably a lot, but we can t quantify it We don t know if our performance could vary in a way that crosses the line. Counting incidents tells us very little about the risk of crossing the red line. Time

14 Understanding what makes everyday operations safer TODAY we monitor safety: -LOSs - Runway incursions TOMORROW we will: - Develop real time safety metrics to monitor everyday safety performance - Provide GMs with real time safety dashboards In the future ATM will become complex Unwanted events will become less and less frequent Safety will no longer be understood from one off unwanted events Slide 14

15 Understanding what makes everyday operations safer Slide 15

16 Understanding what makes everyday operations safer We will understand the link between everyday performance and safety Slide 16

17 Controlling how safe we are We will set safety targets to control safety at the sector and individual level We will dynamically control risks in real time We will know what action to take to normalise our operations to a consistent level of risk We will understand the trade-off between capacity and safety We will know which h safety improvements best align with our future needs Slide 17

18 ICAO Aviation Safety Index Vision It will provide an easy-to-read measurement of the overall health of the aviation system in a given State It will also allows for the ability to drill-downdown into each domain of the States aviation system, and then further into each identified indicator, as may be required to identify and address specific problems in a State, region or across groups of fstates. t

19 ICAO Aviation Safety Index Vision The ASI will provide a multi-dimensional assessment of safety risk through the use of indicators related to various domains within a State s aviation system. Application of the ASI will lead to a measurable improvement in global aviation safety and reduce the risk of loss of life through better utilisation of limited resources and dtargeted t assistance strategies. t

20 ASI Conceptual Framework Government e e t / Carriers / Regulator Airlines Aerodromes Air Navigation Service Providers 20

21 Safety Intelligence inputs Certification Exposure Occurrences USOAP IOSA CANSO SMS Effectiveness Departures Leasing Activity Over-flights Fleet Growth Loss of separation Runway incursion Runway excursion Airspace infringers Technology Ops Environment Fleet Age CNS Infrastructure PBN Implementation Aircraft Equipage Airspace complexity Terrain Weather Remote area ops 21

22 Safety Dashboard Prototype Certification Technology Op Env ment Occurrences Exposure 22

23 ASI The Current Position The Aviation Safety Intelligence initiative is still very much in its development stage CANSO SSC is playing a significant part helping shape the initiative It will generate more data input for CANSO and hence improved benchmarking It will drive continuing improvement in data quality and consistency it 23

24 Conclusions Working at global level Setting targets is difficult Trying to change the way we think and talk about safety Moving towards much more predictive indicators of safety Understanding safety at much more granular level l in real time Driving safety benefit into the system design