October minute Melbourne. The road (and rail) to the future of the world s most liveable city.

Transcription

1 October minute Melbourne The road (and rail) to the future of the world s most liveable city

2 Generating nearly 80 per cent of our national income, and home to 84 per cent of Australians, our cities are the heart of Australia s economy. The future prosperity of Australians depends almost entirely on whether or not our cities thrive. That can happen only when all their citizens feel included, connected and fulfilled. There are a number of factors that create a sense of inclusivity and connection, including physical access to places and people we like, jobs, healthcare and other essential services, and entertainment. With population growth pressures adding to the challenge for Melbourne, how do we ensure we take the right road to the future for the world s most liveable city? Note: All maps and tables in this document were sourced from Google, Committee for Sydney and PwC 2 PwC

3 Why do we talk about a 30-minute city? Research across different periods of time, countries and cities has consistently shown that people will average no more than 60 minutes travel per day*. Beyond 60 minutes, behaviours change to reduce travel time back below this threshold. This phenomenon is known as Marchetti s constant. Improved transport has enabled our cities to expand whilst still adhering to this rule. From the advent and evolution of public transport to the increased accessibility of personal vehicles, people can access a greater geographical area than ever before. However, we are now reaching a new point for Melbourne where a combination of factors is putting upward pressure on travel time and causing behavioural change. is located closer to home. Not only are they less happy at work, but the economy and broader society also suffers due to lost productivity. People may choose not to get medical advice or eat fresh fruit and vegetables due to increased travel, putting their individual health at risk and adding strain to our healthcare system in the longer term. The list goes on. If we move towards a 30-minute city, we not only reduce these downside factors but also bring into frame a whole new range of positives. People have more time to exercise and spend money in their local community, they will work in roles that match their interests and skills, and more time is able to be dedicated to supporting the family unit. These behavioural changes impact both the individual and broader society, and can have a negative impact in many ways. For example, an individual may choose a job that doesn t suit their skillset but * References Global and historical: see theory of Marchetti s constant Australia: Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Population growth, jobs growth and commuting flows a comparison of Australia s four largest cities, Research Report 142, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, minute Melbourne 3

4 Why is the 30-minute city desirable for Melbourne? Improves liveability and public amenity by reducing congestion, improving accessibility to services and reducing commute times (see table) Increases housing supply by promoting higher density development in close proximity to rail stations and through urban renewal, supporting broader efforts to improve housing affordability. This is especially so where there is provision of CBD-style functions in other metropolitan and regional precincts (based on the unique economic and social strengths of these regions) Drives productivity growth by improving connections to employment and services, promoting agglomeration economies and contributing to a more efficient transport network, including through the efficient movement of freight (see table) Improves long-term sustainability of public infrastructure by increasing utilisation and reducing government subsidy 4 PwC

5 Access to... Health services Education Employment centres International gateways Benefits Improved access to health services can help raise health outcomes Delivers economic benefits of a healthier population, including direct financial benefits such as reduced health expenditure, and economic benefits such as improved labour force supply Creates social benefits from good health and wellbeing Increases employment density given that hospitals are major centres of employment, and are often co-located with supporting services, such as pathology labs Increases the productivity of labour, benefiting the economy as a whole and reflected in higher lifetime earnings for individuals Improves economic productivity by supporting collaborative research and innovation Makes the sector even more attractive to international markets (as an export service) Provides significant employment opportunities in precincts where institutions are located Relates positively to improved health, wellbeing and family outcomes, among other social benefits Reduces travel times and cost for workers Increases the pool of people who can access jobs and opportunities, which can attract industry to an area Enables employment density, and supports productivity gains through agglomeration and labour force deepening from improved access to jobs and travel time savings Improves the connectedness and mobility of a national and globalised workforce Allows local residents access to intrastate, interstate and international destinations for leisure, which has social and recreational benefits 30-minute Melbourne 5

6 What is the current state? Current overall accessibility (within 30 mins) Melbourne faces challenges in maintaining the 30-minute city. We have a monocentric structure - high-order services (e.g. health, education), sporting and cultural amenities, and employment are disproportionately focused on the CBD. 6 PwC

7 Current overall accessibility (within 30 mins) - top 10 suburbs Melbourne (top) Southbank Parkville South Yarra - West East Melbourne South Yarra - East South Melbourne Armadale Fitzroy North Mount Waverley - South Current overall accessibility (within 30 mins) - bottom 10 suburbs Point Nepean (bottom) Yarra Valley Rosebud - McCrae Wyndham Vale Hastings - Somers Emerald - Cockatoo Monbulk - Silvan Dromana Mount Martha Sunbury Hospital accessibility Job accessibility School accessibility Shopping accessibility 30-minute Melbourne 7

8 The value of this accessibility is also reflected in property prices. Property prices index Top 10 Bottom 10 Toorak (top) Ardeer - Albion (bottom) Brighton Werribee Balwyn Cranbourne Surrey Hills (West) - Canterbury Hoppers Crossing - South Docklands Wyndham Vale Southbank Dandenong Kew Doveton East Melbourne Kings Park Albert Park Frankston North Camberwell Campbellfield - Coolaroo Data source: The map and table are based on Australian Property Monitor data (Domain) for the year to 30 June It is the weighted average of standardised values for median house price, house rental, unit price and unit rental, weighted according to the number of each type of property in the SA2, per the 2011 Census. 8 PwC

9 As our population continues to grow, transport networks (roads and public transport) become increasingly congested and the ability to access services and jobs within 30 minutes drops away dramatically. Key precincts outside the CBD which could accommodate growth in these high-order services and jobs (e.g Fishermen s Bend, Arden McCauley and Monash) are underdeveloped and have varying levels of accessibility. While government is making progress in addressing the issue, the challenge is growing. Government has a range of current and future transport investments (e.g. Melbourne Metro Stage One and Two, City Loop Split, Western Distributor, North-East Link, Melbourne Airport Rail Link) designed to improve accessibility. These initiatives will help to improve accessibility for some suburbs that have lower ratings on the above accessibility map. Government and the private sector are more strategically planning precincts to harness their economic and social strengths, and to provide well-planned and accessible high-order services (e.g. health, education), sporting and cultural amenities, and employment. However, population is growing rapidly and we need to ensure that infrastructure investment and precinct development recognises this. Melbourne had the largest growth of all Australian greater capital cities in the 10 years to 2016 (964,600)*. Source: ABS minute Melbourne 9

10 A polycentric model to enable a 30-minute city Working population (by SA2) As our population continues to grow, Melbourne may best be served by a polycentric, rather than monocentric, model to enable a 30-minute city and deliver high standards of liveability. Melbourne has big pockets of working populations outside of the CBD to support a polycentric model. 10 PwC

11 Working population - top 10 South Morang 27,808 Craigieburn - Mickleham 23,155 Point Cook 21,944 Melbourne 20,918 Epping 19,529 Richmond 18,086 Preston 17,970 Croydon 17,563 Werribee 16,923 Noble Park 16,736 Currently, 30-minute accessibility to jobs is heavily influenced by proximity to the CBD. A polycentric model reduces this influence. Current and planned infrastructure projects support a polycentric model by better connecting these precincts with surrounding workers. Current weekday morning job accessibility (within 30 mins) by car Current weekday morning job accessibility (within 30 mins) by public transport Working together to create great cities At the heart of PwC s Cities Agenda, and of every great city, are people. We believe a city can only thrive when all its people feel included, connected and fulfilled. It must be a place that attracts talent and investment. There are countless factors that make a city liveable, and what they are and how they re prioritised are unique to each of us. For some, a city must be affordable. For others, it s vital that it s hospitable. Walkable, profitable, sustainable, sociable, scalable a great city means different things to each of its people. And it takes all of its people coming together to shape their city. That s why we re working with government, business and the community to create cities that thrive and endure. We all know what makes a city liveable. At PwC, our focus is making it doable. Making liveable, doable. 30-minute Melbourne 11

12 Contacts James van Smeerdijk Partner - Economics and Policy +61 (3) james.vs@pwc.com Peter Konidaris Managing Partner Melbourne +61 (3) peter.konidaris@pwc.com Christian Greatorix Director - Consulting +61 (3) christian.greatorix@pwc.com 2017 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the Australia member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. At PwC Australia our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 223,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at