Scenario analysis: what is it and how can it help business deal with climate risk?
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1 analysis: what is it and how can it help business deal with climate risk? Andrew Blau Managing Director Deloitte & Touche LLP London October 31, 2017
2 The gods often contradict our fondest expectations. What we anticipate does not come to pass. What we don't expect, some god finds a way to make happen. Euripides, Medea 431 BCE
3 The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. Ben Bernanke Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank March 2007
4 Scientific consensus, business uncertainty Market and Technology Shifts Reduced demand for higher-carbon products/ commodities? New technologies that disrupt markets? Policy and Legal What requirements and how consistent at international, national, and state level? Threats to securing license to operate for high carbon activities? Emerging concern about liabilities? Physical Risks Increased business interruption and damage across operations and supply chains? Reputation Growing expectations for responsible conduct from stakeholders, including investors, lenders, and consumers? Opportunity to enhance reputation and brand value? and: how much time do we have? Source: TCFD Technical Supplement, The Use of Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities, June 2017
5 Typical responses to uncertainty Denial Paralysis Oversimplify Express false confidence Plan for everything Wait and see
6 s a word used many different ways Financial professionals A model that represents the financial operations or financial statements of a company in terms of its business parameters and forecasts future financial performance. 1 Climate modelers Climate models are used with future scenarios of forcing agents (e.g., greenhouse gases and aerosols) as input to make a suite of projected future climate changes that illustrates the possibilities that could lie ahead. 2 planning professionals analysis... evaluates a range of hypothetical outcomes by considering a variety of alternative plausible future states (scenarios). 3 Sources: 1. NASDAQ, Financial model definition, IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, TCFD Technical Supplement, The Use of Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities, June 2017
7 s: A flexible and powerful tool for exploring uncertain futures Rich, data-driven stories about tomorrow that can drive better decisions today Definition Descriptions of the external environment in which the organization may need to operate Hypotheses about the future not predictions Narratives that stretch thinking, challenge conventional wisdom, but are always plausible and logical A tool to methodically identify contingencies and the resilience and flexibility of strategy
8 The essential elements of creating scenarios 1Use outside-in 2 Embrace diverse 3 Take the thinking perspectives long view Contextual environment Transactional environment Organizational environment
9 s are built from the most important uncertainties If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts, but if he will content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties. Sir Francis Bacon The Advancement of Learning
10 The scenario development process Flexible process, common architecture 1 Focal Question 7 Indicators & Signposts 2 Driving Forces 6 Implications & Options 3 Critical Uncertainties 5 Narratives 4 Frameworks
11 The scenario development process 1 Focal Question 7 Indicators & Signposts 2 Driving Forces What is the critical issue that would best organize this scenario effort? 6 Implications & Options 3 Critical Uncertainties 5 Narratives 4 Frameworks
12 The scenario development process 1 Focal Question 7 Indicators & Signposts 2 Driving Forces What is the full spectrum of relevant forces in play? 6 Implications & Options 3 Critical Uncertainties 5 Narratives 4 Frameworks
13 The scenario development process 1 Focal Question 7 Indicators & Signposts 2 3 Driving Forces Critical Uncertainties Which of the many uncertainties could affect the focal question most significantly? 5 6 Implications & Options Narratives 4 Frameworks
14 The scenario development process Driving Forces Critical Uncertainties Focal Question How could these critical uncertainties combine to create surprising futures that challenge today s conventional wisdom? 7 Indicators & Signposts 5 6 Implications & Options Narratives 4 Frameworks
15 The scenario development process Driving Forces Critical Uncertainties Focal Question How might these futures plausibly unfold? What could happen that might lead to futures very different from today? 7 Indicators & Signposts 5 6 Implications & Options Narratives 4 Frameworks
16 The scenario development process 2 3 Driving Forces Critical Uncertainties 1 Focal Question What risks to current assumptions emerge, what impacts could they have, and what steps could you take now to prepare? 7 Indicators & Signposts 5 6 Implications & Options Narratives 4 Frameworks
17 The scenario development process 1 Focal Question 7 Indicators & Signposts 2 3 Driving Forces Critical Uncertainties What early signals of change should you look for and how will you know when to act? 5 6 Implications & Options Narratives 4 Frameworks
18 One example ILLUSTRATIVE s built to explore: Who will take a leadership role in climate change? Can and will business be a force for stability? How will financial markets influence the choices people make? How can you define, discuss, and make informed choices about tradeoffs? How can you begin to understand and address system vulnerabilities? Solidarity in crises Investments in relatively wellestablished mitigation technologies and consumer behavior changes due to more stringent regulations and compulsion. Aligned Kyoto 2.0 Consumers see gradual issues being solved through policy and regulation. Market prices drive international investment in breakthrough technology. Perception of 5-10 years 20+ years response window Survival of the fastest Urgent solutions developed to respond to local threats and capabilities. Impatient customers and a media frenzy create bottom-up activist movements. Coherence of global response Unaligned Many shades of green Climate change vies with other issues as a priority for most countries. Consumer behaviors change very slowly.
19 s allow for a new look at asset values and portfolio valuation ILLUSTRATIVE s allow executives and boards to model the impact of alternative futures on an organization s strategic and financial value. They help organizations explore questions such as: What could happen to our shareholder value if X occurred? What could be the most costly strategic risks? Better than expected financial performance No change in current financial projections Significant downturn in financial performance Tapering of financial performance
20
21 Andrew Blau San Francisco Managing Director Deloitte & Touche LLP
22 This presentation contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this presentation, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this presentation. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as Deloitte Global ) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the Deloitte name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see to learn more about our global network of member firms. Copyright 2017 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
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