Towards a High Income Economy: Productivity and Human Capital the Malaysian Case. The Third World KLEMS Conference May 2014
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1 Towards a High Income Economy: Productivity and Human Capital the Malaysian Case The Third World KLEMS Conference May 2014
2 Presentation Outline Introduction Literature Review Methodology Findings Conclusion 2
3 Malaysia Transformation: Aim to rise from upper middle income to high income Low income < USD1,025 Lower middle income USD1,025 USD4,035 Upper middle income USD4,036 USD12,475 High income > USD12,475 Source: Worldbank Database Malaysia economy evolved from a low income economy in the 1960s to lower middle income in 1980s to middle 1990s, then to upper middle income until present
4 Economic Activities Growth Performance Agri Mining Mfg Construction Services
5 Productivity Growth Performance Slowdown in productivity of the Manufacturing sector back to the 1970s. Productivity growth recorded lowest growth in the 2000s.
6 Economic Activities: Sources of Growth Average change (%) Agriculture TFP Labour Capital GDP Mining TFP Labour Capital GDP Manufacturing TFP Labour Capital GDP Construction TFP Labour Capital GDP Services TFP Labour Capital GDP Malaysia TFP Labour Capital GDP Lower demand for the external sectors due to global financial crisis. Low TFP contribution to the economy. Mainly supported by the domestic demand.
7 Productivity Malaysia Vs Selected Countries Source: TCB Malaysia is catching up and narrowing the gap
8 Malaysia Vs Selected Countries: Sources of Growth, Comparing Malaysia with selected developed countries, Malaysia s GDP is largely contributed by capital. Whereas, most of selected countries on TFP. Malaysia experience high GDP growth, when labour contributed the most.
9 Problem Statement Malaysia in dilemma in reaching high income economy by 2020 as slowdown in GDP growth Issues Productivity growth slowest in 2000s. Low TFP contribution to GDP. In 2010, GDP enormously increased due to labour, but productivity growth slow. Big gap between Malaysia and selected developed countries
10 Objective 1. Analyse labour productivity using man-hours at national and selected industry level 2. Examine the contribution of labour quantity and quality in selected industries using the KLEMS growth accounts 3. Comparing Malaysia s labour quality with selected countries
11 Empirical Evidence. Author Denison (1962) Estimates labour input by holding labour quality constant Jorgenson and Griliches (1967) Ho and Jorgenson (1999) Construct a quality-adjusted measure of labour input for the US based on a cross-classification of hours worked into a number of cells by observed worker characteristics. Find that in labour quality grew on average by 0.6% per year in the US. Lin (2011) investigate the relationship between labour quality and FDI distribution in China. Finds that labour quality measured by education level plays an important role on deciding the distribution of FDI but labour quality measured by working certificates lose their significance. 11
12 Methodology Approach by Jorgenson, Gollop and Fraumeni was used to estimate changes in labour quality. Assumed that the flow of labour services for each labour type is proportional to hours worked, and workers are paid their marginal product. Hence the corresponding index of labour services input L is a translog quantity index of individual types, indexed by l, and given by: ln L t = l v l,t ln H l,t (1) where weights are given by the average share of each type in the value of labour compensation And v l,t = 1 2 v l,t + v l,t 1 (2) v l,t = l L p l,t H l,t 1 L pl,t H l,t (3) L with p l,t the price of one hour work of labour type l. In this way, aggregation takes into account the changing composition of labour force. This variable indicates the labour services per hour worked. It is measured as the difference in growth of labour service and hours worked.
13 Methodology The growth in labour quality is equal to growth in aggregate labour input and growth in the raw measure of hours worked: ΔlnQ = Δln L Δln H (4)
14 Data First Objective measuring labour productivity by man hour Data Variables value added total man hours work Sample 31 industries according to Asia KLEMS categories Period Second Objective measuring labour quality growth index Data Variables total man hours work by gender, education and age salaries and wages Sample 31 industries according to Asia KLEMS categories Period
15 Data Data used in the study are taken from the preliminary version of the Malaysia-KLEMS database, which is constructed in close cooperation with the Department of Statistical Malaysia (DOSM) and Economic Planning Unit (EPU). The main sources of data are from various official publications such as National Accounts Statistics (NAS), Input-Output tables, Annual Industries Survey (AIS), Household Income Survey (HIS), Labour Force Survey (LFS), and Salary and Wages Survey (SWS) and supplemented by many unpublished sources documents provided by the DOSM for the Malaysia- KLEMS project. Other external sources database of the The Conference Board (TCB).
16 Findings: Malaysia Labour Productivity Malaysia Labour Productivity Level and Growth Labour Productivity Indices of the Major Economic Activities
17 Findings: Malaysia Labour Market, Growth Rate of Employment by Major Economic Activities, (% per annum) Growth Rate of Employment by Skilled by Major Economic Activities, (% per annum) Growth Rate of Wages by Major Economic Activities, (% per annum) In period , Services sector recorded the highest growth of 5.5% pa in number of employee All economic sectors towards high skilled workers Agriculture recorded the highest growth in wage rate, while low in employment growth
18 Findings: Labour Quality Growth, Malaysia labour quality experience an average growth of 0.65% in period of The decline growth for some of the major economic activities was due to the growth of labour quantity man hours is smaller than the labour services. A shift in the share of hours worked by low-skilled workers to high-skilled workers will lead to a growth of labour services which is bigger than the growth in total hours worked.
19 For the manufacturing sector, coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel industry recorded the highest average growth with 4.73%. Post & telecommunications recorded the highest average growth with 6.76% for the services sector. Findings: Labour Quality Growth,
20 Findings: Labour Quality Growth of Malaysia Vs Selected Countries, Japan Malaysia Singapore South Korea USA Finland In period , Malaysia labour quality out performed other countries. However, the trend is decreasing for period and
21 Conclusion The study shows that in terms of labour productivity of total man hour shows an increasing growth from period of 2000 to 2012 with 2012 recorded the highest growth. Compared to labour quality growth, it also shows an increasing trend despite a negative growth. As mention earlier the decline growth was due to shifting of low skilled workers to high skilled workers. Furthermore, 2012 recorded a positive growth in both labour productivity and labour quality. This indicates that the labour productivity is also contributed not only to the growth of employment, also the growth of skilled labour. Comparing Malaysia s labour quality with selected countries, in period Malaysia out performed them. However, for the period it shows a decreasing trend.
22 Future Study The Malaysia KLEMS dataset constitutes a rich source for examining many pertinent research issues for the Malaysia economy at the sectoral level. Our future research agenda constitutes examining the contribution of Non-ICT Capital and ICT Capital and intermediate inputs including services to the observed output growth in a KLEMS framework.
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