Risk Assessment Techniques

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1 This article was downloaded by: [Stephen N. Luko] On: 27 May 2014, At: 08:21 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: Registered office: Mortimer House, Mortimer Street, London W1T 3JH, UK Quality Engineering Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: Risk Assessment Techniques Stephen N. Luko a a United Technologies Aerospace Systems (UTAS), Windsor Locks, Connecticut Published online: 27 May To cite this article: Stephen N. Luko (2014) Risk Assessment Techniques, Quality Engineering, 26:3, , DOI: / To link to this article: PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content ) contained in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

2 Quality Engineering, 26: , 2014 Copyright # Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: print= online DOI: / Reviews of Standards and Related Material Risk Assessment Techniques Downloaded by [Stephen N. Luko] at 08:21 27 May 2014 Stephen N. Luko United Technologies Aerospace Systems (UTAS), Windsor Locks, Connecticut Address correspondence to Stephen N. Luko, United Technologies Aerospace Systems, 38 Fountainhead Road, Windsor Locks, CT stephen.luko@hs.utc.com ABSTRACT This article is the third and final in a series of three related articles dealing with the concept of risk. In the previous two articles, ISO (ANSI Z ) on Risk Management Principles and Guidelines and ISO Guide 73 (ANSI X ) on Risk Management Terminology were reviewed. This third article examines ISO or the ANSI equivalent version, ANSI Z These standards deal with risk assessment techniques and attempt to catalog a set of general techniques and methods useful in the assessment and analysis of risk. KEYWORDS risk, risk assesment, risk management, risk management terminology INTRODUCTION The third of the trio of documents concerned with the concept of risk is designated as follows. I. ISO , Risk Assessment Techniques II. ANSI=ASSE Z , Risk Assessment Techniques Note: the designation ASSE stands for The American Society of Safety Engineers. These documents are identical in their entire substance. The Contents section of Z690.3 lists the following major sections: (1) Scope, (2) Normative References, (3) Terms and Definitions, (4) Risk Assessment Concepts, (5) Risk Assessment Process, and (6) Selection of Risk Assessment Techniques. These six sections consume the first 25 pages of this standard. The remaining 85 pages contain two annexes and a bibliography. The annexes contain catalogs of the various methods and techniques useful in risk analysis. Specifically, Annex A gives a short account (five pages) of comparative information and Annex B catalogs actual techniques, briefly describing each topic. The Scope section is a short summary outlining what is intended and addressed in the standard. Several important items stand out. The first is: The standard is not intended for certification, regulatory or contractual use (Z , 2011, p. 11); the second appears as a note: This standard does not deal specifically with safety. It is a generic risk management standard and any references to safety are purely of an informative nature (Z , 2011, p. 11). The third point is: This standard 379

3 does not refer to all techniques, and omission of a technique from this standard does not mean it is not valid. The fact that a method is applicable to a particular circumstance does not mean that the method should necessarily be applied (Z , 2011, p. 11); finally, we read This standard does not provide specific criteria for identifying the need for risk analysis, nor does it specify the type of risk analysis method that is required for a particular application (Z , 2011, p. 11). Every risk scenario is industry and context dependent and analysis methodology and interpretation can vary greatly from one context to another. All of the scope statements essentially mean, as has been previously pointed out, that these standards are generic in substance, apply to a wide variety of application areas, and provide general guidance on concept interpretation and on how to proceed. At best, this standard contains a sampling of tools and techniques that might be applied in a wide variety of specific cases. In section 2 there are four normative references listed and these include the ISO and ANSI versions of the first two standards on terminology and risk management, principles, and guidelines. The Terms and Definitions section (3) simply refers you to ANSI Z690.1 (2011) or ISO Guide 73 (2009) on vocabulary for risk management. Section 4 is titled Risk Assessment Concepts and includes the important section 4.1 concerning Purpose: The purpose of risk assessment is to provide evidence based information and analysis to make informed decisions on how to treat particular risks and how to select between options (ANSI Z , 2011, p. 11). To be sure, the term risk assessment is a broad concept. From ANSI Z690.1 on risk terminology, assessment is defined as the Overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation (ANSI Z , p. 10, 3.4.1) Thus, analysis is a subset of assessment. In essence, a risk assessment includes everything from identifying risks to treatment plans and all aspects of informing management on possible ways to proceed. The analysis part provides the appropriate quantitative=qualitative information and summarizes results in a way that management can use for decision making and future planning. All of the material in ANSI Z690.3 (2011) is concerned with analysis how-to methodology. Section 4 essentially summarizes a conceptual framework for risk including short paragraphs on overall assessment, risk management, communication and consultation, context, treatment of risk, and monitoring and review. These are very similar to that outlined in Z (2011) on risk management principles and guidelines. Section 5 continues with material on the risk assessment process and some of this is similar to material found in the risk management document (ANSI=ASSE Z , 2011). What is new here is an extended discussion of consequence analysis (section 5.3.3) and of the concept of likelihood. The latter would be most important to statisticians and reliability analysts. Section on likelihood analysis and probability assessment discusses three general approaches to estimating probability: Theses are as follows: 1. The use of relevant empirical data or actual observations on the phenomena in question. A reminder on rare events and the concept of zero events is briefly discussed. Statisticians may easily deal with cases of x ¼ 0 events observed in a sample scenario (for example, in a binomial or a Poisson sense); however, there may be other forces at play such as varying parameters. In a National Institute of Standards and Technology sense these estimates would fall under type A uncertainty. 2. Probability forecasts using predictive techniques such as fault and event trees or systems analysis. In such an analysis, probability is assigned to the component parts of a system and standard techniques are used to roll up the assessment to a systems-level probability. Individual data for components come from various sources and may include empirical observations. Simulation techniques are often required. 3. Expert opinion can be used to estimate probability but must draw upon all relevant sources of information. Often this is a combination of empirical data, technical=engineering knowledge of the system, comparison with similar phenomena, and other expert sources. Redundancy may also be important, as might be common failure modes that can affect several parts of a system at once. The remainder of section 5 continues to treat basic principles of risk analysis such as preliminary analysis, uncertainty in risk, sensitivity of risk to changes in the input parameters, risk evaluation, documentation, and monitoring and review. 380 S. N. Luko

4 TABLE 1 Excerpted from ANSI Z , Annex A, Table A2, Section on Statistical Methods (2011) Methods Description Markov analysis Markov analysis, sometimes called state space analysis, is commonly used in the analysis of repairable complex systems that can exist in multiple states, including various degraded states. Monte Carlo analysis Monte Carlo simulation is used to establish the aggregate variation in a system resulting from variations in the system, for a number of inputs, where each input has a defined distribution and the inputs are related to the outputs via defined relationships. The analysis can be used for a specific model where the interactions of the various inputs can be mathematically defined. The inputs can be based on a variety of distribution types according to the nature of the uncertainty they are intended to represent. For risk assessment, triangular distributions or beta distributions are commonly used. Bayesian analysis A statistical procedure that utilizes prior distribution data to assess the probability of the result. Bayesian analysis depends on the accuracy of the prior distribution to deduce an accurate result. Bayesian belief networks model cause and effect in a variety of domains by capturing probabilistic relationships of variable inputs to derive a result. Section 6 begins the review of risk assessment techniques. The section contains seven short subsections that discuss various considerations of assessment technique selection, including the nature of the uncertainty, complexity, life cycle phase, and use of the technique. This is followed by two lengthy annexes essentially a catalog of risk assessment techniques. Annex A, the shorter section, contains two tables that compare techniques by applicability and methodology. Table A.1 classifies the technique by applicability to risk identification, consequence analysis, probability, level of risk, and risk evaluation. For each tool or technique in the table there is link to the appropriate section in Annex B that describes the technique in more detail. The types of risk techniques listed in annex 1 include subsections on lookup methods, supporting methods, scenario analysis, function analysis, controls assessment and statistical methods. The statistical methods subsection includes Markov analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, and Bayesian analysis. Short descriptions of these last three are provided in Table 1. These descriptions seem very brief but may be adequate for quick identification and method synopsis. There is some loss due to several technical terms that users may not be familiar with (e.g., prior distribution ). For Annex A, Comparison of Risk Assessment Techniques, there are two tables that try to rate the applicability of specific tools used for risk assessment. TABLE 2 List of Risk Assessment Techniques: from Annex B, ANSI Z (2011) B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12 B13 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18 B19 B20 B21 B22 B23 B24 B25 B26 B27 B28 B29 B30 B31 Brainstorming Structured or semi Structured interviews Delphi Analysis Checklists Preliminary hazard analysis (PHA) Hazard and operability study (HAZOP) Hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) Toxicity assessment Structured what-if technique (SWIFT) Scenario analysis Business impact analysis (BIA) Root cause analysis (RCA) Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) Fault tree analysis (FTA) Event tree analysis (ETA) Cause-consequence analysis Cause-and-effect analysis Layers of protection analysis (LOPA) Decision tree analysis Human reliability assesment (HRA) Bow tie analysis Reliability-centered maintenance Sneak analysis (SA) Markov Analysis Monte Carlo simulation Bayesian statistics and Bayes nets FN curves Risk indices Consequence=probability matrix Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) Reviews of Standards 381

5 ANNEX B, THE RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES The second annex is lengthy at 80 pages. The organization is numbered from B.1, Brainstorming, to B.31, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. For each of the 31 techniques there are sections concerning overview, use, inputs, process, outputs, and strengths and limitations. Many of the tools listed are probably not part of the popular tools set but may nonetheless have value in some circumstances. There are, of course, many standard techniques; for example, brainstorming, checklists, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), fault trees and Monte Carlo simulation. Others are not as familiar, such as sneak analysis, layers of protection, and FN (Event Frequency [F] vs. Probability [N] of event) curves. We have to remember that this suite of documents is general and can apply to any situation involving risk. The entire list of 31 techniques is shown in Table 2. The descriptions for the various techniques are clearly high-level summaries for many of the techniques listed. Although probably not detailed enough for a specialist, the summaries can serve to provide basic information for the nonspecialist or for managerial people tasked with implementing risk management systems in their organizations. CONCLUSION The methodology of risk assessment is enormous and draws from many subdisciplines, including probability and statistics, quality and reliability theory, operations research, discrete mathematics, simulation modeling, and psychology, among others. The perspectives that one can adopt on risk also vary greatly in organizations, depending on the position one has within an organization. There is thus a lot of variation about the concept and use of risk management principles. This third standard, ANSI Z , tries to outline a sample of widely used assessment techniques. In this it does achieve a degree of success insofar as there are 31 techniques cataloged; these vary greatly in complexity; and there are short summaries of key information concerning each technique. This standard would be most useful to mid-management level people, including quality engineers, who are tasked with either developing a risk management program or have to work within an already existing program. For technical specialists, the document does not contain enough substance but may provide ideas and an introduction for those new to risk. As far as quality engineering is concerned, the topic of risk management and its associated activities should be a key strategy in overall quality planning. Quality engineering is a discipline concerned with control of existing quality levels as well as quality-enhancing strategies. Risk by its very nature is anti-quality so that quality engineering activity is risk-mitigating by nature. In modern industrial enterprises, because the broader concept of risk is very much currently in center stage, it is recommended that quality improvement experts, quality and reliability engineers, and quality managers add knowledge and skills from the increasingly more important risk management arena to their skill set. Toward that end, these standards provide an excellent introduction. ABOUT THE AUTHOR StephenN.Lukoisanindustrialstatisticianwith United Technologies Aerospace Systems. He is a senior number of ASQ and the editor of this column. REFERENCES ANSI=ASSE, Z (2011). Vocabulary for Risk Management. Washington, DC: American National Standards Institute. ANSI=ASSE Z (2011). Risk Management Principles and Guidelines. Washington, DC: American National Standards Institute. ANSI=ASSE Z (2011). Risk Assessment Techniques. Washington, DC: American National StandardsInstitute. ISO Guide 73. (2009). Risk Management Terminology. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Standardization (ISO). 382 S. N. Luko

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