2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Initiative Report Highlights

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1 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Initiative Report Highlights Tim Hanley Global Leader, Consumer and Industrial Products Deloitte LLP MD81 1 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

2 Slide 1 MD81 Update backdrop to align with report cover Drew Rodriguez, Michelle, 3/25/2016

3 Bringing critical insights together Leveraging findings from two simultaneous research initiatives: the Advanced Technologies Initiative and the 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Based on nearly three dozen interviews with senior technology leaders to identify the most promising forward technologies and key challenges facing the US technology ecosystem 2016 analysis based on survey findings from 550+ global executives Ranks 40 nations on key aspects of global manufacturing competitiveness 2 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

4 MD Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index 3 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

5 Slide 3 MD82 Update backdrop to align with report cover Drew Rodriguez, Michelle, 3/25/2016

6 Global CEOs Rank Manufacturing Competitiveness China hangs on barely - to the most competitive manufacturing nation ranking for 2016, but the US is very close and expected to take over the top spot in five years 2016 (Current) 2020 (Forecast) Rank Country Index score Rank (Δ) Country Index score 100 = High 10 = Low 100 = High 10 = Low 1 China ( +1) 1) United States of America USA ( -1) China Germany ( ) Germany Japan ( ) Japan South Korea ( +6) India United Kingdom ( -1) South Korea Taiw an ( +1) Mexico Mexico ( -2) United Kingdom Canada ( -2) Taiw an Singapore ( -1) Canada India ( -1) Singapore Sw itzerland ( +6) Vietnam Sw eden ( +4) Malaysia Thailand ( ) Thailand Poland ( +4) Indonesia Turkey ( -1) Poland Malaysia ( -1) Turkey Vietnam ( -5) Sw eden Indonesia ( -7) Sw itzerland Netherlands ( +3) Czech Republic Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

7 Large traditional manufacturers consolidate back at the top Traditional manufacturing powerhouse nations of the 1980s are back atop the global rankings Innovation, Talent, and Ecosystems are key to their renewed strength * Projected 5 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

8 Linking GMCI rankings and high tech manufacturing exports The linkages between GMCI rankings and exports, particularity high tech, are clear as manufacturing battleground shifts to higher value, advanced tech products & processes 17% 30% 53% Germany (3, +5) $1,249 billion (2014) 28% 14% 58% United States (1, +3) $1,034 billion (2014) 14% 32% 55% Japan (4, +2) $598 billion (2014) 27% 15% 58% United Kingdom (8, +9) $349 billion (2014) High skilled and technology intensive nations whose GMCI ranks are trending up Note: Size of the bubble represents the manufacturing exports output (billion US$) in 2014 Numbers in brackets indicate rank in five years (as per GMCI 2016), and the change in rank with respect to the current rank in 2010 GMCI study 35% 23% 42% China (2, -1) $2,198 billion (2014) 43% 14% 43% India (5, -3) $174 billion (2014) 37% 25% 38% Brazil (23, -18) $75 billion (2014) Nations with a lower proportion of high skilled and technology intensive exports whose GMCI ranks are trending down High skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports Medium skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports Low skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports 6 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

9 Output per worker (GDP constant 2011 international $ in PPP), 2014 Advanced manufacturing economies lead with higher levels of output and larger portion of high tech exports Top ranked countries with higher levels of high tech manufacturing exports also tend have higher levels of output 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Output per worker (GDP constant 2011 international $ in PPP), 2014 vs. High skill and technology intensive exports as % of total manufacturing exports, 2014 Advanced economies with higher share of high skill and technology in their exports are placed very high on labor productivity measured as GDP output per worker China Germany 7 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Japan UK S Korea Mexico US Canada Taiwan High skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports Medium skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports Low skill and technology intensity manufacturing exports Size of bubble indicates manufacturing exports $2,200 B $1,000 B India Note Purchasing Power Parity abbreviated as PPP expressed in international dollars. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the US dollar has in the United States. 0 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% High Skill and Technology Intensive exports as % of total manufacturing exports $600 B $170 B

10 CEOs say innovation through advanced technologies are vital to manufacturing competitiveness The digital and physical worlds are converging. Executives indicate the path to manufacturing competitiveness is through advanced technologies Ranking of future importance of advanced manufacturing technologies by CEOs MD79 8 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

11 Slide 8 MD79 New image with text/rankings larger and country/region specific comments decoupled from chart Drew Rodriguez, Michelle, 3/25/2016

12 Regional clusters of strength emerge A closer look at the top 15 nations projected to be the most competitive in the future clearly shows the formation of three distinct regional clusters of manufacturing strength China (2) Canada (10) UK (8) Germany (3) Japan (4) US (1) S Korea (6) Mexico (7) India (5) Thailand (14) Malaysia (13) Taiwan (9) Vietnam (12) Indonesia (15) High skilled and technology intensive Manufacturing Exports, 2014 ($Billion) Singapore (11) 13 5 $900 billion $600 billion $320 billion $30 billion Note: Figure in parenthesis represent the projected 2020 GMCI rank by CEOs 9 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

13 All three North American nations are among the top ten current and future rankings for manufacturing competitiveness The North American region enjoys high levels of investments, a rich set of natural resources, and support from large industries North American cluster The US emerges as a formidable anchor in this cluster with Highest levels of manufacturing investments along with a strong energy profile. High quality talent and infrastructure. Canada (10) US (1) Mexico (7) Dedicated industrial clusters providing strong support for innovation. Canada, considered the freest economy in the region, is G7 s first tariff-free zone. Mexico enjoys advantages such as relatively lower labor costs, more than 40 free trade agreements and close proximity to the US. High skilled and technology intensive Manufacturing Exports, 2014 ($Billion) (Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and US Council on Competitiveness, 2016 Note: Figure in parenthesis represent the projected 2020 GMCI rank by CEOs. Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index) 10 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved $900 billion $600 billion $300 billion $30 billion

14 Asia-pacific is home to ten of the top 15 ranked countries for future manufacturing competitiveness Besides China, Japan, and South Korea, the Asia-Pacific cluster also houses other attractive manufacturing destinations like Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam (MITI-V) Asia-Pacific cluster China (2) Driven by talent and innovation, this cluster is anchored by China, Japan and South Korea. Region further strengthened by hi-tech export focus of Singapore and Taiwan. Also home to rising stars like Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam (MITI-V) India (5) Thailand (14) Malaysia (13) Japan (4) S Korea (6) Vietnam (12) Indonesia (15) Singapore (11) Taiwan (9) High skilled and technology intensive Manufacturing Exports, 2014 ($Billion) China continues to hold top rankings as one of the most competitive manufacturing nations $900 billion $600 billion $300 billion $30 billion (Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and US Council on Competitiveness, Note: Figure in parenthesis represent the projected 2020 GMCI rank by CEOs Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index) 11 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

15 Putting a squeeze on European countries While clusters of manufacturing strength form in both North America and Asiapacific, most European nations are expected to slip in the overall competitiveness rankings in the next five years UK (8) Germany (3) European cluster Germany and the UK are the only European nations forecast to remain in the top ten global manufacturing markets going forward. Only two European countries (Czech Republic and Romania) are expected to show any improvement in their relative rank position over the next five years. European Country 2016 Rank (Current) 2020 Rank (Projected) Germany 3 3 United Kingdom ( -2) 6 8 Switzerland ( -7) Sweden ( -5) Poland ( -1) Turkey ( -1) Netherlands ( -1) France ( -4) Czech Republic ( +3) Finland Spain ( -2) Belgium ( -3) Italy ( -2) Ireland Romania ( +5) Portugal Greece Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

16 BRIC breaks down The long-awaited promise of the BRIC countries as emerging manufacturing goliaths continues to unravel in the face of sharp declines in competitiveness Brazil joins Russia in a steep decline in the global competitiveness rankings as economic and socio-political instability takes its toll. Brazil and India lag advanced global economies on talent, innovation policy & infrastructure, legal/regulatory environment, and physical infrastructure. Some hope remains for India to rejoin China in the top five manufacturing nations in the next five years, salvaging half of the original BRIC potential. Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index rankings ? 5 India Brazil 23? ? Russia GOLDMAN SACHS, WHICH COINED THE TERM BRIC, TOOK THE INEVITABLE AND HIGHLY SYMBOLIC STEP OF CLOSING ITS BRIC FUND IN 2015 FOLLOWING A STEEP AND PROLONGED DECLINE FROM ITS PEAK VALUE IN Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

17 And search begins for a New China executives look to the Mighty Five (MITI-V) nations As China begins to pivot towards a higher value manufacturing paradigm to align with other innovation-oriented markets, where s the New China? Rapidly rising wages in China present opportunities for other emerging nations to be competitive on the cost of labor and materials. MITI-V (The Mighty 5: Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam) are emerging as alternative lowcost destinations. This presents significant opportunities and challenges for companies currently operating in China that depend on a lower cost base. The MITI-V, an alternative to China Country Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Future Rank Difference ( +4) ( +6) ( +4) ( +6) Current Rank Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

18 What drives manufacturing competitiveness? For the 2016 index, global CEOs point to talent (again), cost competitiveness, and workforce productivity as the top three drivers of manufacturing competitiveness Rankings of drivers of global manufacturing competitiveness 15 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

19 Linking drivers of competitiveness and country performance Both advanced and emerging economies demonstrate varied strengths and weaknesses when compared on key drivers of competitiveness Selected County Manufacturing Competitiveness Drivers US Germany Japan South Korea China India Talent Innovation policy and infrastructure Cost competitiveness Energy policy Physical infrastructure Legal and regulatory environment Most Competitive Least Competitive The mosaic above clearly demonstrates the competitive advantage Germany, the US and Japan have on most of the top drivers including talent, innovation policy and infrastructure (with the obvious exception being cost competitiveness). China and India still hold a significant competitive advantage when it comes to the cost of labor and materials. 16 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

20 Talent Advanced economies continue their lead over emerging nations on talent Most competitive manufacturing economies possess a strong portfolio of talent related capabilities with executives rating Germany, the US, and Japan high on talent Global CEO survey: Percentage of global manufacturing executives that reported a country was extremely competitive on talent Germany 73% Japan 67% US 66% South Korea 47% India 35% China 33% 17 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

21 Talent Top ranked advanced nations have strong talent metrics in terms of years of schooling, education spend, and researchers Talent continues to be a key focus and differentiator for top ranked advanced nations India and China currently have the lowest average of only 4.4 and 7.5 years of schooling, respectively. In contrast, the US and Germany average is ~13, South Korea 11.8 and Japan 11.5 years. Advanced nations' also lead on number of researchers per million and government expenditure on education. Mean years of schooling (2013) Mean years of schooling, researchers per million inhabitants, and government expenditure on education (Real GDP in US Dollars at constant prices 2005), 2013 India China 18 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. US* Germany Japan South Korea $700 Billion $180 Billion $50 Billion 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Researchers per million inhabitants (2013) Note: Bubble size represents government expenditure on education (Real GDP in US Dollars at constant prices 2005) in 2012, (*2011 for US)

22 Focus on talent is critical going forward Consistently identified as the top driver of manufacturing competitiveness, talent is a significant pain point, specifically for advanced technology companies Executives indicated the US holds the leadership position in research, technology and innovation. Talent Executives attributed to strength to the strong foundation laid over the last century that includes an educational system that fosters creative thinking, superior talent, and worldclass universities. But the R&D competitiveness gap is narrowing rapidly as countries like China have been aggressive in attracting and nurturing STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) talent and boomers retire. Resulting in a significant challenge in the form of a talent shortage and widening skills gap over the next decade. The aging of engineering and manufacturing workforces, without appropriate knowledge transfer, is exacerbating a skills shortage not only in the US but also in other developed and developing nations - Executive Interviewee from The Advanced Technology Initiative (Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and US Council on Competitiveness, 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index, Advanced Technologies Initiative) 19 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

23 Economic, Trade, Financial & Tax System Favorable tax rates and lower system complexity along with clear and stable policies create competitiveness advantage Advanced manufacturing nations tend to export high skilled and technologyintensive products (e.g., Germany, the US, and Japan) A global view: Movement and level of manufacturing products to and from the top 10 GMCI nations, to their top five trade partners, by product type (2014) CANADA Total manufacturing exports in $ billions GERMANY S KOREA UNITED STATES Color of arrows High and medium skill and technology exports as % of Total manufacturing exports CHINA UNITED KINGDOM INDIA >2,000 1,000-2, ,000 <500 JAPAN > MEXICO <60 TAIWAN Note: Diagram includes top 10 countries ranked most competitive within the next five years Thickness of arrows is Total manufacturing exports from point A to point B <$50 billion <$50 -$100 billion >$100 billion 20 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

24 Spotlight: Impact of Public Policy on Competitiveness

25 Public policy perceptions (US) US CEOs more optimistic about policy advantages than years past cite many competitive policy advantages within the US Sustainability, technology transfer, central bank monetary policies, and policies that support science, technology and innovation are all cited as key competitive advantages Executives thoughts on policy advantages and disadvantages (percent indicating disadvantage due to current government policies and regulations in their home country) competitive advantage or Competitive DISADVANTAGES Competitive ADVANTAGES Sustainability policies 85% Technology transfer, adoption, and integration policies 84% Central bank monetary policies 84% Policies in support of science, technology, and innovation 84% Foreign direct investment incentive policies 80% Intellectual property protection laws 80% Safety and health regulations 79% Corporate tax rates 49% Healthcare policies 49% Labor policies, laws, and regulations 42% Taxation of foreign earnings 35% Neutral policies United States Consistency of legal enforcement of policy and regulations Trade policies Environmental policies Energy policies Other forms of government intervention/ownership in companies Antitrust laws and regulations Product liability laws Infrastructure development policies and programs Individual tax rate Immigration policies Economic and fiscal policies 22 Deloitte and US Council on Competitiveness I 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Copyright 2016 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.

26 About this presentation This communication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively, the Deloitte Network ) is, by means of this communication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this communication. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee ( DTTL ), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as Deloitte Global ) does not provide services to clients. Please see for a more detailed description of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, consulting, financial advisory, risk management, tax and related services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and high-quality service to clients, delivering the insights they need to address their most complex business challenges. Deloitte s more than 225,000 professionals are committed to making an impact that matters. Deloitte serves 4 out of 5 Fortune Global 500 companies. About the U.S. Council on Competitiveness The Council on Competitiveness is the only group of corporate CEOs, university presidents, labor leaders and directors of national laboratories committed to the future prosperity of all Americans and enhanced U.S. competitiveness in the global economy through the creation of high-value economic activity in the United States. The Council is a non-partisan and non-governmental organization. Learn more about the Council here or view the full list of publications here. Check out the Council on Competiveness' Facebook page for further updates or on Twitter For information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

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