L/C/TF Number(s) Closing Date (Original) Total Financing (USD) IBRD Sep ,000, Original Commitment 550,000,

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) 1. Project Data Report Number : ICRR Public Disclosure Authorized Operation ID P Country Brazil Operation Name BR-Pernambuco Equity & Inclus.Growth DPL Practice Area(Lead) Social Protection & Labor L/C/TF Number(s) Closing Date (Original) Total Financing (USD) IBRD Sep ,000, Bank Approval Date 25-Jun-2013 Closing Date (Actual) 30-Sep-2014 IBRD/IDA (USD) Co-financing (USD) Public Disclosure Authorized Original Commitment 550,000, Revised Commitment 550,000, Actual 550,000, Sector(s) Sub-National Government(30%):Other social services(30%):health(15%):vocational training(15%):general public administration sector(10%) Theme(s) Other public sector governance(30%):social Safety Nets/Social Assistance & Social Care Services(20%):Health system performance(20%):improving labor markets(20%):gender(10%) Public Disclosure Authorized Prepared by Reviewed by ICR Review Coordinator Group Hjalte S. A. Sederlof Soniya Carvalho Joy Behrens IEGHC (Unit 2) 2. Project Objectives and Policy Areas a. Objectives The Program Development Objective (PDO) as set out in the Project Document(PD) of the Pernambuco Equity and Inclusive Growth Development Policy Operation (PEIGDPO) was to support the Government of Pernambuco to strengthen the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs aimed at promoting sustained growth and improved economic opportunities for the poor, consolidating public sector management innovations, preventing crime and violence, and reducing the burden associated with chronic disease. The operation was a single tranche Development Policy Loan (DPL) to be disbursed upon loan effectiveness. It covered a period of three

2 months between approval and closing. Efficacy is assessed on the basis of the four objectives in the efficacy section below. This assessment recognizes that the time-frame for achieving measurable outcomes (behavior changes in target groups) in most instances is too short. s therefore reflect the more immediate aims of having operational M&E mechanisms in place that are used to assess program performance, and underpin evidence-based management. Caution about attribution. Since the introduction of the development strategy that PEIGDPL supported, Pernambuco has made significant progress in the areas supported by the operation: in education, the state s ranking has jumped from sixteenth in 2011 to fourth in 2013; violent crime has dropped by 32 percent over the past eight years; and infant mortality has dropped by 48 percent over the period. These results cannot only be attributed to the earlier DPL and this one, but also show the effects of other Bank, donor, federal, and state interventions, all of which are producing results that may be hard to distinguish from the operation under review. b. Were the program objectives/key associated outcome targets revised during implementation of the series? No c. Pillars/Policy Areas PEIGDPO supported three main policy areas: Creating opportunities for all: this policy area was to promote sustainable and inclusive growth by: (i) introducing a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system for evidence-based policy making in the implementation of the state s industrial development program; (ii) reducing barriers to firm entry by reducing the business registration process to 72 hours; (iii) enhancing employment outcomes over time by strengthening technical vocational education and training (TVET) by introducing a M&E system to support TVET policy development and program management; and (iv) expanding productive inclusion programs (ranging from training to self-employment) for the poor; Strengthening public sector management included extending results-based management tools to the state secretariats for health and education, and progressively to other state secretariats; Improving quality of life included: (i) expanding the state s program for integrated support to drug users; (ii) introducing a M&E system to guide the strengthening of the state s program against violence to women; and (iii) implementing protocols for addressing chronic noncommunicable diseases, with a focus on diabetes and hypertensive patients. d. Comments on Program Cost, Financing, and Dates Project cost and financing. The DPL was supported by a Bank Loan of US$ 550 million. The Loan was fully disbursed. Dates. The Loan was approved on June 25, 2013, and closed on September 30, Relevance of Objectives & Design a. Relevance of Objectives The PDO responded to the socio-economic situation in Pernambuco; the state s development strategy for the period, and extended under a new, long-term strategy for ; and the Bank s most recent Country Partnership Strategy (CPS ) for Brazil. Pernambuco experienced strong economic growth for much of the decade leading up to the project, accompanied by fiscal policies that have resulted in improved revenue performance and a gradual reduction in debt levels. However, the benefits of this performance mainly went to metropolitan

3 areas, as the State continued to face significant challenges, with per capita incomes below average for Brazil, extreme poverty double the national average, low schooling levels and weak skills formation among the working-age population and new entrants onto the labor market, and high unemployment and high crime rates. The PDO, with its focus on supporting policies for growth and economic opportunity, and a better social environment, addressed these challenges. It directly responded to the Government s strategy for implementing its development program (Todos por Pernambuco), and the three Policy Areas mirrored three major components of that strategy. The PDO was in line with the CPS, in addressing three of the Bank s four strategic objectives for Brazil: increased efficiency in private and public investment; improved public services for the poor; and improved policy coordination at sub-national levels. b. Relevance of Design The design was consistent with the PDO. It included the building of institutions notably M&E systems that would strengthen results-based decision-making in each of the three policy areas. Over time, these institutions are expected to help achieve each of the four sub-objectives of the PDO: promoting sustained growth and economic opportunity; improving public sector management, preventing crime and violence, and reducing the burden of chronic disease. Each policy area was based on a number of legal, regulatory and policy actions. A policy matrix provided the logical framework, indicating the legal, regulatory, policy actions, and institution building activities for each policy area, the objectives of each policy action, and expected short term results. Given the limited time-frame of the project, outcomes in most instances were framed as intermediate outcomes. A DPL was chosen as the lending instrument at the request of the state government in order to ensure adequate fiscal space at the state level to proceed with the reforms; it was introduced into a national macroeconomic framework that at the time was considered adequate and sustainable into the medium term (see also the Section on Risk) The choice of a DPL also was influenced by the PEIGDPO being preceded by another DPL for Pernambuco Expanding Opportunities, Enhancing Equity in the State of Pernambuco DPL which was disbursed in full in May, 2012 (Report No BR). This has influenced the contents of the PEIGDPO. The first DPL was conceived as a stand-alone operation that launched the building of a policy and regulatory framework for the three strategic policy areas of the Todos por Perambuco program. Following completion of that DPL (IEG rated the outcome satisfactory), the Government requested PEIGDPO to help further strengthen policies in the three strategic areas. The focus on economic development, training and public management was retained, and extended to include crime prevention, building a productive safety net, and health care. Three areas from the first DPL were not taken up education, water resources management, and disaster management as they were being addressed through other instruments. 4. Achievement of Objectives (Efficacy) PHREVISEDTBL Objective 1 Objective To strengthen the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs aimed at promoting sustained growth and improved economic opportunities for the poor. Rationale The objective was to be met by promoting regional economic development, private sector development, technical vocational education and training, and productive inclusion.

4 To promote regional economic development, an M&E system was to be established, and used to assess the impact of the state s industrial infrastructure development program (PROINFRA) as an incentive for private investment in the state, and allow adjustments to raise the effectiveness of the program. At the time of this writing, the system has been developed and is operational, but it has not yet been applied for monitoring or evaluation purposes, or, consequently, for evidence-based policy making. Private sector development was to reduce administrative barriers to firm entry, allowing the completion of firm registration within 72 hours. An expedited registration process currently is in place in 25 municipalities, and by closing, some 90 percent of new business had used the expedited registration process, compared to a target of 70 percent. The objective for technical and vocational education and training was to support an integrated monitoring and evaluation system that would allow measurement of efficiency and results of state-level programs. The system is operational and has already been used to register all students enrolled in TVET programs in the state, and is being used to monitor their progress through the system, and for tracer studies on graduates employability. Productive inclusion was to strengthen the state s program for promoting employability and income earning opportunities for the poorest segments of the population. This was to be done by the introduction of a financing mechanism at the municipal level to provide training and technical assistance for extremely poor families. By the end of the operation, 51 municipalities (28 percent of municipalities in the state) had signed on to the program. No target had been indicated at the outset. Modest PHREVISEDTBL Objective 2 Objective To strengthen the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs aimed at consolidating public sector management innovations Rationale The EIG DPL focused on establishing the state s results based management model, initially introduced in public security, in at least three sectors of the state administration (education and health, in addition to public security), and progressively in other sectors. The model has been introduced in education and health. In education, where it sets targets to improve teaching, learning and the school environment, it has been introduced in all schools in the state. In health, where it seeks to reduce mortality from non-communicable diseases, and improve health system efficiency, the model has been introduced in all state and municipal health facilities, and monitoring began in Already, some results have been noted: 67 percent of regional health offices met their targets for mortality rates due to avoidable causes, up from 50 percent in 2013; and there was a 7 percent increase in coverage by the state family health program. At the hospital level, progress has been slower, as only one of the state s 30 hospitals so far has met the targets for all four hospital indicators, and four have met the targets for two indicators. PHREVISEDTBL Objective 3 Objective

5 To strengthen the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs aimed at preventing crime and violence; Rationale The PEIGDPO focused on strengthening violence prevention programs in the state, including rehabilitation of crack users, violence against women, and monitoring capacity. In focusing on the support and rehabilitation of crack users, the operation included the expansion of an ongoing program, which increased from covering 2,000 individuals (500 women) in 2012 to 6,800 (2,250 women) in Over , violent crime in areas where the program was being implemented, dropped by some 8 percent. To better address violence against women, an M&E system was put in place that registers cases, evaluates results of actions taken, and provides inputs into the design of new policies/programs. According to the Region "the M&E system (Sei Mulheres) is fully operational and is being used to inform decision making on violence protection programs." The ongoing programs to protect women against violence have reduced incidents by 26 percent over the period. PHREVISEDTBL Objective 4 Objective To strengthen the design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programs aimed at reducing the burden associated with chronic disease Rationale The PEIGDPO focused on strengthening the state s capacity to address effectively a growing burden of chronic disease, with an emphasis on diabetes and hypertension. Building on a state plan for dealing with chronic disease, the state has disseminated information on mortality from chronic conditions, provided technical assistance to municipalities, continuing education on surveillance and prevention, invested in diagnostic equipment, and carried out information campaigns among the general public. Monitoring of hypertension and diabetes has been included in the state s statistical data base. As a result, some 43 percent of hypertensive patients are under active management. (With revisions in the collection of data, the result cannot be compared to earlier data.) Also, the referral system has been strengthened, with almost 70 percent of specialist consultations occurring after referral. 5. Outcome The relevance of the PDO was substantial, tailored to the economic situation, Government strategy, and the Bank s CPS. Relevance of design was substantial, with policy areas and activities responding to the PDO. Efficacy was rated substantial for three objectives, and modest for one objective with shortcomings in intermediate outcomes which meant the objective was only partly achieved. a. Outcome Satisfactory

6 6. Rationale for Risk to Development Outcome The PEIGDPO was introduced into a stable political environment, and directly supporting policies that are part of the state s continuing development agenda. A new, consultative long-term development plan was finalized in April 2015, building on the achievements under the current plan, specifically including those policies and programs supported by the PEIGDPO Risks outside the operation may be found at the country level: while the fiscal stance of Pernambuco may be deemed adequate, current concerns about macroeconomic stability at the federal level may introduce a risk factor in the near and medium term in light of recent economic developments. In view of the potential country risk, short- to medium term risk to progress in the different areas is deemed modest. a. Risk to Development Outcome Modest 7. Assessment of Bank Performance a. Quality-at-Entry In designing the PEIGDPO, the Bank team drew on extensive prior analytical work, and the experience and achievements of the preceding DPL. It designed the operation to address well-defined areas in the state government s development strategy, for which the state government sought support. The choice of a DPL was appropriate: it created the fiscal space necessary to proceed with the establishment of the necessary institutions. These included in particular the introduction of management and evaluation systems for results-based management at the state level: here, while indicators of their effectiveness still are not available, the systems for technical and vocational education and gender were innovative in the Brazilian context. Monitoring and evaluation design allowed progress on the policy matrix to be adequately monitored. The project was able to engage all relevant agencies in defining the priority areas, setting the stage for engaged implementation by the local counterparts. According to the Region " When the team finished the operation, all the M&E systems that the operation aimed to develop were operational, and annual reports prepared through the systems completed and disseminated. Hence, in a short period of time (the operation was implemented over slightly more than one year), these policy areas went from no data to M&E systems in place that collected and provided data for decision-making." Quality-at-Entry Satisfactory b. Quality of supervision In addition to their regular supervision function, the supervision team came to play a significant role in providing technical assistance for implementation. This was provided both directly -- as the team worked closely and extensively with implementing agency staff on system designs and on the results focus of processes -- and by securing trust funds and drawing on ongoing Bank projects (in particular the federal level Brazil Skills and Jobs project) for further technical assistance. According to the Region According to the Region, the Bank team provided support through the provision of extensive TA and the organization of international workshops on best practices on how to build M&E systems in the areas of Vocational Training and Technical Education (TVET), productive inclusion and gender. To ensure that the State Government s secretariats and agencies worked together with strong focus on results and benefited from knowledge and data at the federal level, the Bank team: (i) provided/organized extensive TA and knowledge exchanges with, for example, the Federal Ministry of Social Development (counterpart on the Bolsa Familia WB Operation), that even participated in one mission, (ii) developed a strong and respected partnership with SEPLAG and other State agencies though monthly meetings by video Conference, and (iii) mobilized additional resources (TFs) and additional TA from other ongoing projects and reports to complement DPL activities. Quality of Supervision Satisfactory

7 Overall Bank Performance Satisfactory 8. Assessment of Borrower Performance a. Government Performance The state government s ownership and commitment to the reform agenda pursued under the EIG DPL was strong: the reforms were key elements of the state government s strategy, the governor took an active involvement in implementation, resources were available on a timely basis, and in most cases, expected progress that was made on institutional changes. Government Performance Highly Satisfactory b. Implementing Agency Performance The State Secretariat of Planning and Management (SEPLAG) was the primary implementing agency, supported by several other agencies focusing on various components the secretariats for labor and employment, education, social development, human affairs, social defense, and health. SEPLAG was able to coordinate smoothly between the various agencies during implementation, including through frequent coordinating meetings, while maintaining its commitment to implementing the operation. SEPLAG was able to maintain consistency in moving the operation forward, while maintaining the commitment of all the relevant actors. This also was facilitated by the active engagement of all agencies in defining the priority policy areas. According to the Region, while other agencies were involved in implementation and their institutional capacity varied, SEPLAG was the formal/official implementing and coordination agency for the operation. SEPLAG s had the leading role in designing, coordinating, monitoring and reporting upon the program, and its performance was exemplary. Implementing Agency Performance Highly Satisfactory Overall Borrower Performance Highly Satisfactory 9. M&E Design, Implementation, & Utilization a. M&E Design Monitoring and evaluation design for the operation was based on the policy matrix. Wherever possible, baseline data on outputs and outcomes, and targets, were assigned. At the same time, it was recognized that the short time-span of the operation, in most cases would not allow for measurable targets to be discerned; instead, institutional, intermediate outcomes were specified, and a mechanism for monitoring progress was put in place with SEPLAG functioning as the point for consolidating the information. b. M&E Implementation The State Secretariat of Planning and Management (SEPLAG) was the primary implementing agency, supported by several other agencies focusing on various components the secretariats for labor and employment, education, social development, human affairs, social defense, and health. SEPLAG was able to coordinate smoothly between the various agencies during implementation, including through frequent coordinating meetings, while maintaining its commitment to implementing the operation. While implementing agency performance varied among the different actors, SEPLAG was able to maintain consistency in moving the operation forward, while maintaining the commitment of all the relevant actors. This also was facilitated by the active engagement of all agencies in defining the priority policy areas.

8 c. M&E Utilization Regular monitoring focused on the identification of possible risks and issues of implementation, and formed the agenda for meetings between implementing agencies. M&E Quality 10. Other Issues a. Environmental and Social Effects The ICR does not report safeguard issues. b. Fiduciary Compliance The ICR does not report fiduciary issues. c. Unintended impacts (Positive or Negative) The ICR does not report unintended impacts. d. Other N/A 11. s s ICR IEG Outcome Satisfactory Satisfactory --- Risk to Development Outcome Negligible Modest Bank Performance Highly Satisfactory Satisfactory Borrower Performance Highly Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory --- Quality of ICR --- Reason for Disagreements/Comment IEG rating notes recent macroeconomic developments IEG rating notes the ambitious agenda and the absence of outcomes in some instances. Note When insufficient information is provided by the Bank for IEG to arrive at a clear rating, IEG will downgrade the relevant ratings as warranted beginning July 1, The "Reason for Disagreement/Comments" column could cross-reference other sections of the ICR Review, as appropriate.

9 12. Lessons The review highlights the following lessons from the ICR: World Bank support gives a strong, central executing agency clout to both request monitoring reports and demand results, while at the same time playing a catalytic role in improving its relations with other executing agencies. The EIG DPL facilitated the establishment of partnerships, working together towards a common goal, between SEPLAG and the other executing agencies. Implementation support teams should identify opportunities for such partnerships, which are facilitated by synergies across DPL components in terms of themes (such as M&E in this DPL case) and long-term engagements with the client through different, but consolidated, operations. They should also support each agency s programs as well as empowering a central agency in the coordination across components. If Government priorities are well established, then aligning a DPL with them makes sense. The EIG DPL was aligned fully with the Government s priorities, and its Results Framework was developed, in the words of one official, based on priorities for both the Government and the World Bank, with indicators that were not superimposed, but rather selected from among those of the Government." 13. Assessment Recommended? No 14. Comments on Quality of ICR The evidence provided in the ICR is sufficient to assess key elements, and it included both description and analysis. The report is internally consistent, concise, and well articulated. With the exception of the absence of a discussion of fiduciary risks, the report is consistent with ICR guidelines. a. Quality of ICR

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