UNESCO-Cedefop Global Skills Conference Skills, jobs and sustainable development: global trends and local challenges

Transcription

1 UNESCO-Cedefop Global Skills Conference Skills, jobs and sustainable development: global trends and local challenges UNESCO s Skills Forecasting work in the Southern Mediterranean region Hélène Guiol, UNESCO, Youth, Literacy and Skills Development Section Camille Courchesne, UNESCO Expert

2 Contextual factors Youth unemployment rate in Arab region remains the highest globally, at 30.6% in 2016 (13.1% globally) Challenge particularly acute for female youth participation Geopolitical tensions, migration 2.6 millions young people without a job in 2017 in the region National strategic priorities include skills anticipation and forecasting as a means to tackle youth unemployment Jordan s Vision 2025 Tunisia s Skill Needs Startegic Intelligence and Prospective Platform Palestine s Permanent Framework for Strategic Partnership Morocco s National Strategy on Vocational Training 2021

3 Skills Forecasting as part of a Comprehensive Approach Quantitative and qualitative analysis Integrating the exercise within the policy-planning process involving various consultations Making the model output useful to policy-makers, to social partners, to youth Agreeing on a common analytical framework for key issues: gender, regions, migrants, transition from school to work Taking into consideration the socio-political context in the various countries: what can the past tell us about the future?

4 NET-MED Youth s National Expert Teams 52 youth organizations mobilized accross the region 7 stakeholders platforms being built at national level Regional and sub-regional knowlegdesharing events Capacity development to develop the model and use the results for policy-making and advocacy

5 Preliminary results 1 / Tunisia

6 Structural change is not happening fast in the short to medium terms Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand by Occupations Tunisia % 59% 17% 14% 20% 20% 3% 6% Manager Professionals and Technicians Clerical, Services and Sales Workers Agriculture, Craft, Plant and Machine Workers and Elementary Occupations

7 The bulk of job creation stays in traditional sectors in the short to medium terms Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand by Occupations Tunisia Autres services (ASER) Services financiers (SF) Transport et télécommunication (TT) Services de l'hôtellerie et de la restauration (HR) Commerce (COM) Bâtiment et travaux publics (BTP) Mine et Énergie Industries mécaniques et électriques (IME) Industries matériaux de construction, céramique et verre (IMCC) Industries chimiques (ICH) Industries manufactures diverses (IMD) Industries Textile, Habillement et cuir (IND, TEXT, HAB, CUI) Industries Agro-alimentaires (IAA) Agriculture (AGR)

8 At a macro level, the main issue is the lack of job creation Forecasted Cumulative Labour Demand and Supply by Occupations in Tunisia Net Demand Supply Manager Professionals and Technicians Clerical, Services and Sales Workers Agriculture, Craft, Plant and Machine Workers and Elementary Occupations

9 Preliminary results 2 / Palestine

10 Structural change is not happening fast in the short to medium terms Main employers in Palestine (Labour demand for selected year) (% of total employment for each year) Wholesale and retail trade (17%) 2. Public administration and defense (15%) 3. Construction (13%) 4. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (12%) 5. Manufacturing (11%) and Education (11%) 1. Construction (17%) and Wholesale and retail trade (17 %) 2. Public administration and defense (13%) 3. Manufacturing (12%) 4. Agriculture, forestry and fishing (11%) 1. Wholesale and retail trade (19%) 2. Public administration and defense (15%) 3. Construction (14%) 4. Manufacturing (11%) and Education (11%)

11 Job creation remains in traditional occupations in the short to medium terms Cumulative Jobs Openings in Palestine 1 Sales Workers Labourers in mining, construction, manufacturing and transport Building and related trades workers, excluding electricians Teaching professionals Drivers and mobile plant operators 9 323

12 Challenges and Opportunities - Accessing and sharing data at a detailed level for analysis and planning - Forecasting beyond a 5-year time horizon a context of political turmoil - Integrating the informal employment - Reflecting the gender and youth issues on the labour market - Taking into account the unempolyment/underemployment rates of higher education graduates

13 Thank you!