Regional Competitive Industry Analysis

Transcription

1 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties June 2017 Yamhill Polk Marion Michael Meyers, Economist (503) Jill Cuyler, Research Analyst (503) Equity, Strategy, & Communications Division One World Trade Center 121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205 Portland, OR 97204

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY... 4 Regional Indicators... 4 Competitive Industry Indicators... 5 Employment Growth Projections... 6 Caveats and Limitations... 6 SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY... 7 Employment, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job... 7 Employment Growth... 7 Manufacturing Employment and Wages... 8 Unemployment Rate... 9 SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES Location Quotient Analysis Shift-Share Analysis Regional Employment Projections by Industry Page 2 of 17

3 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties Executive Summary Lying in the heart of the Willamette Valley, this region s economy is grounded in natural resources and state government. Marion County is home to Oregon s capitol and second largest Metropolitan Statistical Area, Salem. As such, state government is an important industry to the region s economy. Polk and Yamhill counties are more rural and rely on natural resources for their economic base, although Marion County also has a significant economic base in natural resources. The region had the fourth fastest employment growth rate between 2005and 2015 amongst the state s regions, growing 9.3 percent compared to the state rate of 8.8 percent. The private sector average annual wage is 22 percent lower than the statewide average, due in large part to the region s dependence on lower paying industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing. Nonetheless, the region has high paying, competitive industries in forestry and wood products, medical equipment, and other manufacturing subsectors. Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2015, slightly higher than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location Food and Beverages is the quotient of 1.23, manufacturing is very important to the most competitive industry region and its competitive advantages. Food group in the Midmanufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector Willamette Valley. in the region, accounting for nearly a third of manufacturing employment in the region. Wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing (led by medical equipment) are the next largest manufacturing subsectors. Industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing experienced some of the largest competitive share percent and job gains in the region between 2005 and Miscellaneous and medical equipment manufacturing were other competitive industries with strong competitive share gains. Wood product manufacturing endured the largest competitive share job losses between 2005 and 2015 amongst competitive industries in the region. The region is fortunate to have a large number of emerging traded sector industries that have gained competitive advantages and present further opportunities for growth. Some of those industries include educational support services, e-commerce, professional, scientific, and technical services, and software. Page 3 of 17

4 Private sector payroll employment in the region is projected to grow by 11 percent between 2014 and 2024, less than the statewide rate of 16 percent. Health care, construction, and professional and business services are projected to grow the fastest. Manufacturing is projected to grow slower than the statewide average, but provide many jobs in the region. Introduction The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy consisting of Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties. Regional trends in employment and wages are analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region. This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of the region s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential. Section 1: Sources and Methodology This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Oregon Employment Department (OED), and U.S. Census Bureau. The majority of data is presented for traded sector industries only. However, non-traded sector employment data is provided as part of OED s projections (Table 9). The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following indicators are used for this report. Regional Indicators Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wages to show the geographic distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends are also analyzed and compared to the state. Page 4 of 17

5 This is followed by an analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. Employment and average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a region compared to that industry s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry s share of employment in the region is greater than its share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on small, medium, or large-size manufacturers. The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average. This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region s economy is from Oregon and the U.S. Competitive Industry Indicators Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location quotients. This analysis includes all traded sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted. Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region. Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shiftshare analysis looks at industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to national and industrial trends. If a region s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shift-share analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment. Employment change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and losses in competitive advantage. Page 5 of 17

6 Employment Growth Projections Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region. Current projections cover the period from 2014 to Caveats and Limitations Employment and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from the BLS and OED. Data was also used from the U.S. Census Bureau s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program, which is also based on QCEW data. All of these sources are limited to employment and wages covered under unemployment insurance. The final table in this report (Table 9) is not limited to covered employment and includes total non-farm employment. A substantial amount of industry employment and wage data for Oregon counties is confidential and not published by BLS or OED. Estimates were created for confidential three and four digit NAICS industries by county. The primary method used to create estimates was wage share calculations from LED data. Unlike BLS and OED employment and wage data, LED data includes wages for many industries for which employment is confidential. As a result, one can produce employment estimates for industries with confidential employment by calculating the share of wages in a particular industry compared to other confidential industries under the same parent industry and applying that ratio to the amount of unpublished confidential employment amongst those industries. Estimates were done for industries with at least $3 million in annual payroll. Local knowledge and analyst judgment were used to vet the reliability of final employment data. In just in few cases, more reliable employment figures from other sources such as Hoovers (Dun & Bradstreet), newspapers, or company websites were substituted for wage share employment estimates. In these instances, the wage column reads N/A in relevant tables. The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The total number of manufacturing establishments comes from QCEW data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The percent of manufacturing establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number of establishments by employment-size class. Tables 6, 7, and 8 include ten year employment change analyses by industry. Due to the administrative nature of QCEW data, changes in industry employment can occur that are not the result of actual economic changes within the industry. Some, but not all, of these Page 6 of 17

7 so-called non-economic changes were identified in the ten year analyses and industry employment adjustments were made so that industry employment trends could be more accurately captured. Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy Employment, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job Private sector employment in this region accounted for 10 percent of Oregon s total private sector employment in The 2015 private sector average annual wage in the region was $37,077, 22 percent lower than the statewide average. Marion County accounts for almost three-quarters of the region s total private sector employment. Marion and Yamhill counties have similar average wages ($37,491 and $38,293 respectively) while Polk County has a lower average wage ($31,137). Table 1: Employment, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2015 Area Employment Total Payroll Average Wage % of Region Employment % of Statewide Ave. Wage Marion 109,871 4,119,149,756 $37, % 78.5% Polk 13, ,918,897 $31, % 65.2% Yamhill 29,939 $1,146,454,275 $38, % 80.2% Region 153,585 $5,694,522,928 $37, % 77.6% Oregon 1,508,680 $72,079,481,599 $47,777 N/A 100.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Employment Growth The region s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 4 th in the state. Total private sector employment in the region increased by 9.3 percent between 2005 and 2015, higher than the statewide average growth rate of 8.8 percent. Private sector employment growth in the region was fastest in Polk and Yamhill counties (14.2 and 12.3 percent) between 2005 and 2015, while Marion County grew at 7.9 percent, slower than the statewide average. Page 7 of 17

8 Table 2: Change in Private Sector Employment, Area 2005 Employment 2015 Employment Employment Change Employment Change Rank Marion 101, , % 14 Polk 12,059 13, % 8 Yamhill 26,659 29, % 9 Region 140, , % 4 Oregon 1,386,917 1,508, % N/A Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages. Manufacturing Employment and Wages Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in With a location quotient of 1.23, manufacturing is very important to the region s economy and competitive advantages. Food manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for nearly a third of manufacturing employment in the region. Wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing (led by medical equipment) are the next two largest subsectors. The region is similar to the state in its composition of small, medium, and large size establishments. Page 8 of 17

9 Table 3: Manufacturing Employment and Wages, 2015 NAICS Industry Employment Location Quotient Average Wage Manufacturing 19, $42, Food Manufacturing 5, $32, Wood Product Manufacturing 2, $42, Miscellaneous Manufacturing 1, $56, Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 1, $35, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 1, $46, Machinery Manufacturing 1, $53, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 1, $32, Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 1, $37, Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing $36, Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing $64, Primary Metal Manufacturing $91, Printing and Related Support Activities $35, Paper Manufacturing $82, Chemical Manufacturing $55, Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing $43, Apparel Manufacturing $29, Textile Product Mills $27,079 Source: Business Oregon with data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, U.S. Census Bureau ( ), and other public documents. Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2015 Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by Employment-Size Class Area Total Manufacturing Establishments or More Marion % 19.4% 4.3% 2.3% Polk % 20.6% 6.3% 1.6% Yamhill % 20.3% 2.5% 1.7% Region % 19.9% 3.8% 2.0% Oregon 5, % 19.0% 4.4% 2.3% Source: Total establishments from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages; employment-size class data from U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, Unemployment Rate The region s unemployment rate largely mirrored Oregon s between 2005 and 2010, but has remained slightly above it every year since. However, it does continue to decrease, and was nearly equal to the statewide rate in Page 9 of 17

10 The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 11 percent, in The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 5.2 percent, occurred in % Chart 1: Average Annual Unemployment Rate % Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% Region Oregon U.S. 0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries Location Quotient Analysis Agriculture, food and beverages, and forestry and wood products are the industry groups with the highest location quotients in the region. Only about half of the region s high location quotient industries pay above average wages, due in large part to lower paying industries in agriculture and food and beverages. Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing and industries in metals and machinery are additional traded sectors with high location quotients that pay higher than average wages. Page 10 of 17

11 Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients Private Sector, 2015, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Employment Greater than 100 and Location Quotient 1.2 or Greater, Industries with Average Wage above Region Average Shaded NAICS Industry Employment Location Quotient Average Wage 1153 Support Activities for Forestry 1, $41, Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production 4, $30, Other Crop Farming 1, $31, Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Mfg. 4, $31, Logging 1, $65, Support Activities for Crop Production 4, $18, Beverage Manufacturing 1, $35, Fruit and Tree Nut Farming 1, $27, Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Mfg $25, Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing $93, Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1, $36, Sawmills and Wood Preservation $59, Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing $33, Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing $32, Vegetable and Melon Farming $28, Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1, $63, Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying $53, Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Mfg $33, RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps $17, Communications Equipment Manufacturing $57, Cattle Ranching and Farming $37, Other Food Manufacturing $49, Industrial Machinery Manufacturing $38, Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers $46, Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills $93, Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing $56, Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing $47, Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) $13, Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing $24, Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing $40, Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing $28,754 Source: Business Oregon with data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, U.S. Census Bureau ( ), and other public documents. Shift-Share Analysis Sugar and confectionary product manufacturing experienced the highest competitive share percent gains between 2005 and Other industries in Food & Beverages also had high competitive share gains. Page 11 of 17

12 Other crop farming and support activities for crop production, and miscellaneous and medical equipment manufacturing were other major traded sector industries that experienced high competitive share percent gains between 2005 and Amongst competitive traded sector industries, wood product manufacturing endured the largest competitive share job losses between 2005 and Cattle ranching and farming and industrial machinery manufacturing experienced the largest competitive share percent losses amongst traded sector industries between 2005 and A diverse group of emerging traded sector industries in region experienced high competitive share percent gains between 2005 and 2015, including educational support services, motor vehicle parts manufacturing, other general purpose machinery manufacturing, other financial investment activities, e-commerce, professional, scientific, and technical services, and software. Page 12 of 17

13 Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 3113 Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing % Shoe Stores % Support Activities for Crop Production 4, % 1, Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing % Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Man % Beverage Manufacturing 1, % Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing % Specialty Food Stores % Residential Building Construction 1, % Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing % Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental H 2, % Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction % Offices of Other Health Practitioners 1, % Building Finishing Contractors 1, % Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing % Other Specialty Trade Contractors 1, % Other Crop Farming 1, % Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers % Nonscheduled Air Transportation % Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing % Logging 1, % Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1, % Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores % School and Employee Bus Transportation % Other Food Manufacturing % Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) % Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturin 4, % Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing % Communications Equipment Manufacturing % Vocational Rehabilitation Services 1, % Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing % Vegetable and Melon Farming % Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing % Offices of Dentists 1, % Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying % Support Activities for Road Transportation % Support Activities for Forestry 1, % Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills % Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 2, % Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production 4, % 32 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 13 of 17

14 Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 4859 Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation % Waste Collection % Cattle Ranching and Farming % Industrial Machinery Manufacturing % Outpatient Care Centers 1, % Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction % Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1, % Sawmills and Wood Preservation % Utility System Construction % RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps % Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores % Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living F 3, % Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors 1, % Fruit and Tree Nut Farming 1, % -5 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 14 of 17

15 Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 6117 Educational Support Services % Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing % Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing % Other Financial Investment Activities % Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses % Remediation and Other Waste Management Services % Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services % Software Publishers % Other Ambulatory Health Care Services % Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing % Scientific Research and Development Services % Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers % Other Support Services % Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing % Other Residential Care Facilities % Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores % Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant W % Traveler Accommodation 1, % Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories % Child Day Care Services 1, % Couriers and Express Delivery Services % Services to Buildings and Dwellings 2, % Depository Credit Intermediation 1, % Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores % Department Stores 2, % Home Health Care Services % Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores % Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers % Clothing Stores 1, % Animal Slaughtering and Processing % Offices of Physicians 3, % Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 1, % Gasoline Stations 1, % Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers % Other Schools and Instruction % Electronics and Appliance Stores % Printing and Related Support Activities % Building Equipment Contractors 2, % Legal Services 1, % Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manu % Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief % Health and Personal Care Stores % General Freight Trucking % 41 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 15 of 17

16 Employment Projections by Industry Total private sector payroll employment is projected to grow by 21,500 jobs between 2014 and 2024, an 11 percent increase. This is less than the projected statewide growth rate of 16 percent. Construction, health care, and professional and business services are projected to experience the greatest percent increases in employment. Health care, professional and business services, and manufacturing are projected to experience the greatest absolute increases in jobs. Manufacturing employment in the region is projected to increase 9 percent, less than the 12 percent statewide projection. Page 16 of 17

17 Table 9: Regional Industry Employment Forecast, Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties Includes Linn County due to OED regional groupings Change % Change Total employment 251, ,300 24,600 10% Total payroll employment 238, ,700 23,000 10% Total private 187, ,600 21,500 11% Natural resources and mining 17,800 19,700 1,900 11% Mining and logging 1,800 1, % Construction 11,300 13,400 2,100 19% Manufacturing 25,800 28,000 2,200 9% Durable goods 14,500 15,900 1,400 10% Wood product manufacturing 3,500 4, % Nondurable goods 11,300 12, % Food manufacturing 6,300 6, % Trade, transportation, and utilities 38,300 41,500 3,200 8% Wholesale trade 5,800 6, % Retail trade 25,400 27,500 2,100 8% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 7,100 7, % Information 1,600 1, % Financial activities 10,000 10, % Professional and business services 17,400 20,300 2,900 17% Administrative and support services 9,200 10,900 1,700 18% Private educational and health services 36,200 41,800 5,600 15% Health care and social assistance 29,400 34,600 5,200 18% Health care 25,000 29,600 4,600 18% Leisure and hospitality 19,800 21,600 1,800 9% Accommodation and food services 17,400 19,100 1,700 10% Accommodation 1,400 1, % Other services and private households 8,900 10,200 1,300 15% Government 51,600 53,100 1,500 3% Federal government 2,100 2, % Federal post office % State government 23,600 24,600 1,000 4% State education 1,600 1, % Local government 25,900 26, % Local education 14,100 14, % Self-employment 13,000 14,600 1,600 12% Source: Oregon Employment Department Page 17 of 17