Education, training and skills: Forecasting skills supply and demand by Peter Szovics Cedefop

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1 Education, training and skills: Forecasting skills supply and demand by 2020 Peter Szovics Cedefop 1

2 Figures to think about 74.1 million low-skilled in Europe (2010Q2) Only 9.3 % of adults participate in LLL (2009) 14.4 % represents early school leavers (2009) Around 3.3 million vacancies not filled in 2010Q2 (although 23 million unemployed) Unemployment rate, EU 27: 9.8 %, September

3 What might the future look like? 2020 skills race? a new focus on skills and employment policy based on anticipation, matching skills with jobs EU 2020 Youth on the move Early school leavers under 10 % and 40 % of younger generation should have tertiary degree An agenda for new skills and jobs employment rate at least 75 % (Employment guidelines) ET 2020 A new impetus for European cooperation in VET 3

4 Interaction of skills with jobs Labour supply Labour demand Consumer demand Demographic change population unemployed employed vacancies Technological change EQF, Europass, ECTS, ECVET, EQARF, ESCO, Sector councils Environmental change Regulation and governance Globalisation 4

5 European skills observatory new model Supplying the right skills that are needed Ensuring skills created get used High and intermediate skills and jobs boost economic growth Forecasting (macro trends) Employers survey Sectoral studies (green skills) Matching 5

6 Framework for demand and supply of skills Supply of skills Module 5: Stocks of people by qualifications, (QMOD) Module 6: Flows and graduate numbers, (FlowMOD) Population/Labour Force by ISCED category Module 1: E3ME Employment Module 4: Replacement demand by occupation / qualification (RDMOD) Job openings by ISCED category Demand for skills Module 2: Expansion Demand by occupation (EDMOD) Module 3: Expansion Demand by qualification (QMOD) Module 7: Imbalances (Supply-Demand), 3 ISCED levels (BALMOD) 6

7 On the way to recovery Million jobs 245 Scenarios on the employment impact of the recession (EU-27 + NO and CH) 240 No recession scenario 235 Current baseline scenario - 5 million million (job losses in ) - 10 million + 7 million additional jobs By 2020: 80 million job opportunities (7 million additional jobs + 73 million jobs due to replacements) Source: Cedefop

8 Continuing trend towards a service economy Employment by industry (EU-27 + NO and CH) Million jobs Distribution & transport Business & other services 40 Non-marketed services 30 Manufacturing 20 Construction 10 0 Primary sector & utilities Source: Cedefop

9 Knowledge- and skills-intensive intensive jobs on the rise Changing occupational structure (EU-27 + NO and CH) Plant; machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Legislators, senior officials and managers 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Craft and related trades workers Clerks Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Service workers; shop and market sales workers Source: Cedefop

10 More workers with better qualifications Supply trends : Labour force by qualification (EU-27 + NO and CH) Million people High qualification Medium qualification Low qualification % 28 % 35 % % 50 % % % 22 % 15 % Source: Cedefop 2010 NB: Labour force aged 15 years and older Forecast 10

11 Early warning: potential skill mismatch Net demand change by occupations and qualifications (EU-27 + NO and CH) High-skilled non-manual occupations Skilled non-manual occupations Skilled manual occupations Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification Elementary occupations Source: Cedefop Million jobs 11

12 Key findings Employment in 2020: 235 million (~ pre-crisis peak, 2008) 7 million new jobs + 73 million jobs due to replacements Jobs becoming more knowledge- and skills-intensive Impact of globalisation and technological change: sectoral employment structure demand for new and different types of skills Jobs employing highly qualified people: > 1/3 Jobs requiring medium-level qualifications: ~ 1 in 2 12

13 Implications for policies Adaptation of workforce and their skills to new requirements and structural change retraining, active LM measures, up- and re-skilling Prevention of skill mismatch lower drop-out rates, guidance and counselling, social policies, migration, recognition of non-formal & informal learning, learning outcome approach INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIAL PARTNERS 13

14 Demand and Supply trends in Portugal, upskilling 14

15 Employment levels by occupations in Portugal, 2010 and 2020 (000s) job polarisation 15

16 Thank you! Contact details for more information Cedefop: 16

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