Decision making in the information driven society

Transcription

1 Decision making in the information driven society Walter J. Radermacher

2 Walter J. Radermacher 2

3 Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted. Albert Einstein Walter J. Radermacher 3

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5 We can measure the world! w1280-h960/daniel.jpg Walter J. Radermacher 5

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11 D. Adams: Hitchhikers' guide Walter J. Radermacher 11

12 Paul Laffoley Walter J. Radermacher 12

13 jpg/assets.diylol.com*hfs*d39*9e2*f7e*resized*homer-gdp-meme-generator-gdp-what-is-gdpea675c.jpg jpg/diylol.com*memegenerator*homergdp2*memes*gdpwhatisgdp3/ Walter J. Radermacher 13

14 GDP at current market prices, ( 100M) Walter J. Radermacher 14

15 GDP per capita at current market prices, 2002 and 2012 (EU-27 = 100; based on PPS per inhabitant) Walter J. Radermacher 15

16 Real GDP growth, (% change compared with the previous year) Walter J. Radermacher 16

17 Consumption expenditure and gross capital formation at constant prices, EU-28, (2005 = 100) Walter J. Radermacher 17

18 Distribution of income, EU-28, (2005 = 100) Walter J. Radermacher 18

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20 Evolution of income inequalities (Gini coefficient after social benefits and pensions 2012, Gini growth rate ) Walter J. Radermacher 20

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22 Sustainable Development headline indicators Walter J. Radermacher 22

23 Europe 2020 indicators Walter J. Radermacher 23

24 We can measure the world! Technology Science Power Culture Communication Trust Walter J. Radermacher 24

25 Trust in measurement = f(quality) Walter J. Radermacher 25

26 Can we measure the world? Walter J. Radermacher 26

27 Limits of statistical measurement Walter J. Radermacher 27

28 Complexity, Reducibility Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce Conferences Centre 7, rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg- Kirchberg 1: Sheet Walter J. Radermacher 28

29 Complexity, Reducibility Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce Conferences Centre 7, rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg- Kirchberg 1: Sheets Walter J. Radermacher 29

30 Complexity, Reducibility Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce Conferences Centre 7, rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg- Kirchberg 1: sheets Walter J. Radermacher 30

31 Complexity, Reducibility Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce Conferences Centre 7, rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg- Kirchberg 1: sheets Walter J. Radermacher 31

32 Complexity, Reducibility Luxembourg Chamber of Commerce Conferences Centre 7, rue Alcide de Gasperi, Luxembourg- Kirchberg 1: sheets Walter J. Radermacher 32

33 Can we measure the world? Evidence = a manufactured 'product' Statistics based on conventions Official statistics based on democratic decision making leading to conventions concerning program, domains, variables and quality The choice of the right product fit for the purpose of a user; subjectivity Data, information, knowledge Standards, principles Trade-offs between quality dimensions Walter J. Radermacher 33

34 Do we understand the measurement of the world? Numeracy, statistical literacy High and too high expectations (No) Appetite for quality food Walter J. Radermacher 34

35 Whatcangowrong? Decision making side Searching under the lamp-post Emphasis on short-term Management by use only of visible figures Evaluation of performance, merit rating, Measurement bureaucracy Quality forgotten (Trust!!) Walter J. Radermacher 35

36 Whatcangowrong? Decision making side Filter in public perception and political debate (e.g. GDP) Externalities (wrong price information) Tragedy of the commons Misuse Cultural impacts Democratic risks ("TINA") Walter J. Radermacher 36

37 Whatcangowrong? Evidence side Measuring the unmeasured (Quality!!) Evidence instead of decision making Special case Europe Decision based evidence making Goodhart'slaw "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" Murphy's law: "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" Walter J. Radermacher 37

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40 What now? Literacy and knowledge Mainstreaming of empirically based education Linking the triangle user, science, statistics Angry students, data driven journalism Quality assurance of official statistics Quality branding and labelling Special attention to quality in the "data revolution" Walter J. Radermacher 40

41 Thank you for your attention Walter J. Radermacher 41