As meters get smarter, who gets the power?

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1 As meters get smarter, who gets the power? The better the question. The better the answer. The better the world works. Of special interest to: Chief executive officers Managing directors Strategy directors Chief financial officers Procurement directors HR directors Smart metering program directors Operations directors As the UK Government s smart metering mandate ramps up, large energy retailers can t just focus on the present without confronting the implications for the future. As the Managing Director of a major UK energy retailer, Susan takes a deep breath as she looks over next year s budget. To comply with the Government s mandated smart meter rollout, her company is spending more and more on infrastructure and installation and as those costs continue to climb, investment into the growth areas of the business is being strained or even diverted.

2 Meanwhile, more nimble competitors, staffed with digitally savvy workers, are busy planning how to capitalize on all the new smart meter offerings and poach her customers. As she reviews the spiralling cost of her company s smart metering rollout over the next five years, she recalls a case study from her MBA programme, concerning a similar rollout in the UK: fibre broadband. The leading companies at that time never got to capitalise on the world they helped to create, as the sheer weight of investment cost forced some into bankruptcy, and others were forced to merge to survive. Could history be repeating itself? Susan is fictional but illustrates a scenario that is all too real today for large UK energy retailers, which are at risk of footing the bill for rolling out smart meters while the next generation of retailers are poised to flourish in their place. But it s not that one-sided; already the new players are feeling the pain of evolving their business model to adapt to a smart-enabled world. It s all to play for! 1 5 insights for executives

3 Large retailers are carrying the burden for the bulk of the rollout yet all retailers face challenges too The UK Government has mandated that every home should have a smart meter by 2020, a project expected to cost approximately 12 billion. For large retailers, the cost of deploying new smart infrastructure can be steep and potentially unsustainable, much like the broadband rollout. They also have inherent complexity in their business as they ve continued to adapt their legacy processes and procedures to accommodate large swathes of regulation over the years. Now, adding smart metering into this complexity has driven the need for large-scale IT change programmes, sapping investment into future growth opportunities. For new entrants, the situation is slightly different but no less challenging. While they focus on customer acquisition and retention, they too must adapt their business to cope with an increasingly complex market, evolving processes and systems to keep up with the digitisation of power. Installations are set to intensify further and create commercial tension in your budget UK domestic smart meter installations (per annum) Numbers of meters 14 million 12 million 10 million 8 million 6 million 4 million Smart meters installed Future installations 2 million Source: Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy. The true cost of smart deployment is about to hit every retailer as the effort to meet the 2020 mandate scales significantly, as the accompanying chart shows. Such costs will place increasing pressure on discretionary investments in other areas, likely peaking in 2017 and Large retailers could find themselves submerged in the present with no eye toward the future. And their business models are still primarily driven by volumes, in which a large fixed cost base needs large numbers of customers to stay profitable. Meanwhile, new entrants, founded with more of a tech and data focus, aren t saddled with the same cost base, but face their own challenge of creating new propositions for customers and delivering them consistently. 5 insights for executives 2

4 Keep Smart 3.0 top of mind as new market dynamics gain momentum Dramatic changes on the horizon % 30% 85% 14% 99% 1% New players continue to rapidly gain market share, as the accompanying table indicates. If Smart 1.0 was the learning phase before mass rollout, and Smart 2.0 is the phase of deploying the meters themselves, are retailers and particularly the large players focusing enough on Smart 3.0: the role and shape of their business in a smart-enabled world? New market entrants have the potential to exploit the new world of smart more quickly and effectively to entice customers and unlock the benefits of a smart network and destroy the volume-based business model of the past two decades. Big 6 players Independents Sources: Ofgem and Citi research; EY calculations. 3 5 insights for executives

5 Don t just rethink traditional approaches on costs and benefits rethink your business Large retailers must simultaneously deploy smart and radically transform their business model to capitalise on it, and that requires radically different mindsets beyond cost efficiency and benefits realisation. Your effort can t just be a single programme with a stand-alone business case. 1. Instill Capital Program Rigour. Many smart programmes are still not being run with the discipline of a 1b capital programme. Installation costs are not universally measured and tracked, nor are key cost drivers measured accurately enough to provide certainty on total cost of deployment. 2. Capitalise on advancements in digital. It doesn t begin and end with the meters themselves. For example, machine learning can make it easier to automate the processing of smart meter events, alerts and alarms. And rather than physical in the field quality assurance teams reviewing installation quality, digital applications can provide greater assurance at a fraction of the price. 3. Define the new Smart 3.0 business model. Are you defining a new way of working, or identifying how to adapt your current processes and systems to work in a smart-enabled world? Give people the freedom to design what the business should look like in the future, unconstrained. 4. Disrupt yourself. That may sound silly, but the stakes are no joke: rather than transform your existing business, start thinking from a blank sheet of paper. How do you best encourage innovation and R&D? What legacy parts of your business are being left behind (or should be left behind)? Who is better at what you currently do that you can partner with in the future? 5 insights for executives 4

6 Energy retailers must confront the rollout challenges of today with an eye toward tomorrow It s imperative to identify, experiment and implement cost-efficient and operationally effective approaches to the smart rollout. But never let what s right in front of you obscure what s on the horizon. Companies like Susan s are paying to build a future that they will struggle to profit from unless they re prepared to radically rethink how they do business. The choices ahead may be difficult, but the market is being disrupted with or without your input what matters is whether you guide your own destiny. Looking at your budgets, you may feel discouraged, like Susan. But the time to act is right now. When you re stuck in the middle of the ocean, with hard work in front of you regardless of whether you turn back or move forward, it s no time to just tread water. 5 5 insights for executives

7 Want to learn more? The answers in this issue are supplied by: Rob Doepel Partner Head of EY UK&I Retail Utilities Power & Utilities Ernst & Young LLP Benoit Laclau Partner EY Global Sector Leader Power & Utilities Ernst & Young LLP Jamie Crystal Partner Advisory Services Power & Utilities Ernst & Young LLP Andrew Millerd Director Advisory Services Power & Utilities Ernst & Young LLP For related thought leadership, visit ey.com/analytics. 5 insights for executives 6

8 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. We want to hear from you! Please let us know if there are subjects you would like 5: insights for executives to cover. You can contact us at: fiveseries.team@ey.com 2017 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no Gbl BMC Agency GA 0000_08695 ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com/5

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