Community Attributes Inc. tells data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision makers. President & CEO Chris Mefford

Transcription

1 APRIL 2016

2 Community Attributes Inc. tells data-rich stories about communities that are important to decision makers. President & CEO Chris Mefford Lead Analysts Diana Haring Michaela Jellicoe Analysts Spencer Cohen Sudarshan Sampath Alexandra Streamer Eric Viola Community Attributes Inc Fourth Ave, Suite 1401 Seattle, Washington

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and Purpose The Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County (WDC) is a nonprofit workforce organization supporting a strong economy by working with partners to bring together job seekers, employers, educators and other stakeholders to shape workforce gap solutions. Under WDC leadership, the Seattle-King County WorkSource system serves nearly 6,700 seekers per month. Helping job seekers to develop skills aligning with industry needs and matching them to employment opportunities with wages leading to selfsufficiency and career progression are primary WDC mission goals. Compositional changes in the local economy in recent years have raised questions about how King County s workforce development organizations can plan for the needs of the aerospace industry. The WDC can use the talent pipeline model and feedback from industry stakeholders to plan for the changing workforce needs of the county s aerospace industry. Since 2010, Community Attributes Inc. (CAI) has produced multiple talent pipeline studies that examine various sectors within King County. The studies compare projected demand for specific occupations against labor supply to identify potential workforce gaps. Methods Talent pipeline analysis draws from data published by the Washington State Employment Security Department, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). In addition to the talent pipeline data analysis, in-depth interviews conducted with 13 stakeholders in the aerospace industry inform findings. Interviews covered topics of hiring, recruiting, education and training, as well as the ageing workforce in aerospace. Interviewees included representatives from aerospace companies, unions and educators who provided a wide range of perspectives within the aerospace industry and on-the-ground realities. Key Findings The aerospace industry is one of the state s largest and most associated industries, employing almost 94,000 people statewide in With more than 45,000 aerospace employees in King County alone the county is an essential part of the statewide aerospace industry and an integral element of the global aerospace supply chain. Of the aerospace employees in King County, 31,367 work in core aerospace industry occupations. The Washington State Employment Security Department projects overall employment within the aerospace industry will decline by 0.8% annually from 2013 to Although the industry is projected to decline Seattle-King County Page iii

4 somewhat as a whole, key occupations within the industry will experience many openings and in fact increase in number. Openings among key aerospace occupations are projected to increase by 1.3% annually from 2013 to Annual openings include new jobs created due to growth as well as job openings created by existing employees exiting employment to retire, move, or change industries. Employment in core aerospace occupations is expected to reach 32,487 in 2018 and 33,997 in This represents net growth of 1,026 jobs per year. Net growth equals new hires minus exiting workers. The Talent Pipeline Dashboard on (page vii) shows occupations in the aerospace industry grouped by education level required for entry and ranked by average annual openings within the industry from 2018 to The minimum education required for entry is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In some cases the actual education required by regional employers may be higher than the minimum education level category, and existing workers may well have less education than shown. Some overall findings include the following: Openings for computer systems analysts in aerospace are expected to experience an undersupply of 113 workers annually, the largest occupational gap in King County s aerospace sector. Local qualified candidates are only expected to fill 16% of computer systems analyst openings. From 2018 to 2023, King County is forecasted to experience a net surplus of 91 aerospace workers annually. Computer systems analysts; aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers; industrial engineers; purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products; industrial machinery mechanics; and training and development specialists are all forecasted to experience shortages in excess of 20 workers annually. A few occupations are projected to experience large supply surpluses: industrial engineering technicians; architectural and engineering managers; aerospace engineers; industrial production managers; mechanical drafters; and welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders are all forecasted to experience oversupplies of local candidates in excess of 40 workers per year. On-the-Job Training Positions that require on-the-job training account for a total of 334 annual openings, approximately one-third of all aerospace occupational openings. Seattle-King County Page iv

5 Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers are expected to have a shortage in local talent of almost 70 workers annually, the largest shortage among occupations requiring on-thejob training. Associate Degree Overall, occupations requiring an associate degree are expected to experience an oversupply of 172 workers. An oversupply of industrial engineering technicians is a major cause for the surplus of talent, as the industry is only expected to experience 18 annual openings, but 130 local workers are expected to seek employment in this occupation annually. Bachelor s Degree With 12 out of 18 occupations expected to experience undersupplies from 2018 to 2023, only 560 out of 599 occupations that require a bachelor s degree are anticipated to be filled by local talent annually. Computer systems analysts are projected to see a shortage of more than 100 qualified local candidates annually, countered by a surplus of more than 60 qualified workers annually for aerospace engineers. Industry experts indicated demand for some occupations is expected to be greater in magnitude than indicated by available data. In particular, machinists, mechanics, engineers, Computer Numerical Control (CNC) programmers and Computer Measuring Machine (CMM) programmers are all expected to see high demand in the coming years. Many occupations expected to experience increased demand are being driven by an ageing trend in the current workforce and the move toward high tech and automation within the industry. Stakeholders also indicated the region s high schools are a good source of talent supply that they are increasingly looking toward. Seattle-King County Page v

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7 King County Aerospace Talent Pipeline On-the-Job Training Annual Average Demand and Supply Occupation Employment CAGR Annual Demand and Supply, All Occupations by Education Ranked by Annual Openings ( ) Scale: 0-95 annual openings in sector Gap Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, 3,571 3, % D Demand and systems assemblers S Supply (69) 2 Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, 4,080 4, % D Demand (14) and weighers S Supply Demand Purchasing agents, except wholesale, 4,740 5, % D Demand (38) Supply 269 retail, and farm products S Supply UI Claims Machinists 3,252 3, % D Demand Graduates 116 S Supply (15) Industrial machinery mechanics 1,722 2, % D Demand S Supply 5 5 (22) UI Claims 6 Computer-controlled machine tool 1,006 1, % D Demand Graduates operators, metal and plastic S Supply Painters, transportation equipment 1,016 1, % D Demand S Supply Multiple machine tool setters, % D Demand operators, and tenders, metal and S Supply Graduates Computer numerically controlled % D Demand 7 7 (6) machine tool programmers, metal and S Supply Commercial pilots % D Demand S Supply UI Claims 11 Metal workers and plastic workers, all % D Demand 4 4 other S Supply Grinding and polishing workers, hand % D Demand 4 4 S Supply 2 2 (2) 0 13 Crane and tower operators % D Demand 4 4 S Supply 3 3 (1) Demand Supply 14 Grinding, lapping, polishing, and % D Demand 4 4 buffing machine tool setters, S Supply Associate Degree or Postsecondary Award Annual Average Demand and Supply Occupation Employment CAGR Annual Demand and Supply, All Occupations by Education Ranked by Annual Openings ( ) Scale: annual openings in sector Gap Industrial engineering technicians 1,064 1, % D Demand S 130 Supply First-line supervisors of production 4,137 4, % D Demand (3) and operating workers S Supply Demand 90 3 Mechanical drafters % D Demand Supply S Supply UI Claims Aircraft mechanics and service 1,310 1, % D Demand Graduates 203 Graduates 203 technicians S Supply 7 7 (3) Avionics technicians % D Demand UI Claims 1 S Supply 4 4 (4) 0 59 UI Claims 6 Aerospace engineering and % D Demand 8 8 Demand Supply 203 Graduates operations technicians S Supply 5 5 (3) Bachelor's Degree Annual Average Demand and Supply Occupation Employment CAGR Annual Demand and Supply, All Occupations by Education Ranked by Annual Openings ( ) Scale: annual openings in sector Gap Computer systems analysts 11,311 15, % D Demand S Supply (113) Industrial engineers 3,175 3, % D Demand S Supply (67) Demand Aerospace engineers 2,942 2, % D Demand Supply 560 S 126 Supply UI Claims Computer network architects 2,611 3, % D Demand Graduates 411 S Supply Budget analysts 1,162 1, % D Demand S Supply UI Claims 6 Mechanical engineers 2,472 2, % D Demand Graduates S Supply (19) 7 Logisticians 2,730 2, % D Demand (17) 200 S Supply Graduates 8 Electrical engineers 2,521 2, % D Demand (12) S Supply UI Claims 9 Operations research analysts 1,305 1, % D Demand (14) S Supply Engineers, all other 2,039 2, % D Demand Demand Supply S Supply (13)

8 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; National Center for Education Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., Seattle-King County Page viii

9 CONTENTS Introduction... 1 Background and Purpose... 1 Methods... 1 Organization of Report... 2 Aerospace Industry Overview... 3 Demand Analysis: King County Aerospace Occupational Forecasts Supply Analysis: Availability of Regional Talent and Employable Workforce Local Graduates Unemployment Insurance Supply and Demand Interim Findings and Next Steps Interim Findings Seattle-King County Page ix

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11 INTRODUCTION Background and Purpose Methods The aerospace industry is one of the most influential in King County s economy, shaping the regional economy since the early 1900s. In the years since the first talent pipeline study in , changes in the local economy as a whole have raised questions about how King County s workforce can continue to support the strength of the aerospace industry. Through the talent pipeline, the Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County (WDC) can plan for the changing workforce needs of the aerospace industry in King County. The aerospace industry includes a wide range of activities related to the production of aerospace products, including aircrafts, missiles, space vehicles, engines and other parts, and aerospace prototypes, as well as aircraft conversion and aircraft overhaul. Overall, the aerospace industry in King County employs more than 45,000 people (covered employees), representing more than 48% of Washington s aerospace industry employment. According to the King County Aerospace Alliance, King County is home to more than 400 individual aerospace employers, ranging in size from The Boeing Company to small, specialty manufacturers. Aerospace industry core occupations provide employees with higher-thanaverage wages, $79,070 compared to $57,370 across all occupations in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA. Among core aerospace occupations median wages lie between $29,040 and $143,070 annually, and out of 59 core occupations 25 have median wages greater than $60,000 annually. With projected declines in overall aerospace employment through 2023 and a growing aging trend among the aerospace workforce, the current outlook for workforce demand and supply will allow the WDC and industry leaders to help address workforce challenges of tomorrow. Workforce professionals can use this information to help ensure King County s educational assets are providing the appropriate mix of training opportunities to meet the needs of the aerospace industry. The WDC services King County, Washington s most populous county. CAI s analysis relies on data published by the state of Washington and federal agencies. Specifically, the following data sources form the foundation of the modeling: Occupational estimates and forecasts from the Washington State Employment Security Department (ESD) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data provides current estimates and forecasted demand for occupation in King County and associated educational requirements, as well as occupational wages. Seattle-King County Page 1

12 Occupational forecasts include openings created by retirements and separations. For this reason, average annual openings are larger than the average of net jobs created over a period of time. Washington unemployment insurance claims. This data, also published by ESD, provides monthly unemployment claims and the previous occupations of the claimant by occupation code. Educational attainment data from the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS). IPEDS provides the number of graduates by educational program, defined according to the Classification of Instructional Programs, for King County s higher education institutions as well as a table of equivalence used to translate educational programs and occupations. Subsequent sections explain the details and limits of this data. In general, this data provides measures of demand and supply by occupation across industries. The occupations are defined in accordance with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Standard Occupational Classification system and industries are delineated using definitions from the North American Industry Classification System. In-depth interviews were also conducted as a part of this detailed aerospace talent pipeline analysis. Thirteen interviews were conducted with key stakeholders within the aerospace industry, including industry representatives, union representatives and educators. These interviews were open-ended discussions and provided qualitative perspective on workforce issues impacting the aerospace industry. Organization of Report Demand Analysis. Describes the composition of aerospace occupational demand in King County. Supply Analysis. Breaks out the two elements of talent supply: new graduates entering the workforce and the existing pool of unemployment insurance claimants. Supply and Demand. Examines how local supply is expected to meet occupational demand in King County. Summary of Key Findings. Assesses in detail the results of the talent pipeline analysis, focusing on key implications for King County. Seattle-King County Page 2

13 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Assessing occupational gaps in an industry relies on a strict operational definition of which occupations compose that industry. Some occupations are present in nearly every industry and do not characterize what makes that industry specifically. Many administrative roles, for example, fit into this category. The first step in determining the core occupations that represent the primary set of skills within King County s aerospace industry is developing an operable definition of the industry. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) groups industries in increasingly specific segments from the two-digit to the six-digit level. For the purposes of this analysis, the aerospace industry is defined by the four-digit NAICS code 3364, Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing. According to the Washington Aerospace Partnership in 2014 the aerospace industry employed an estimated 93,400 workers in Washington, and related industries employed an additional 38,600 workers. Although the aerospace industry in King County is supported by a large supply chain, this analysis focuses specifically on the activities and occupations within the aerospace manufacturing industry in King County. Overall, the aerospace industry employs more than 45,000 people in King County. The four-digit NAICS code for aerospace is composed of six more detailed six-digit NAICS codes that track employment within aircraft manufacturing; aircraft parts and equipment manufacturing; guided missile and space vehicle manufacturing; guided missile and space vehicle propulsion unit and parts manufacturing. Another method for defining the aerospace industry is to identify the core occupations that represent the primary skills within the industry. Exhibits 1 and 2 lay out the core occupations that define the aerospace industry in King County. The process of assembling this list began with examining the structure of the occupation codes with employment within the aerospace industry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines occupations using the Standard Occupation Code system (SOC). These occupations have a two-digit prefix, grouping occupations of similar types, followed by a more detailed four-digit code, identifying each individual occupation. Occupations matching aerospace are first grouped by their concentration within the aerospace industry. Occupations with fewer than 25 employees, or less than 15% concentrated within the industry, are excluded from the analysis, as they are not considered core jobs within the industry. The core occupations identified represent only a portion of total employment within the aerospace industry. However, these occupations are highlighted because they represent the primary skills that define employment within this industry. Overall employment within the aerospace industry includes Seattle-King County Page 3

14 employment in other occupations that are not core to the industry. Additionally, core aerospace occupations are also present in industries other than aerospace throughout King County. Exhibit 1. Aerospace Architecture and Engineering Occupations and Production Occupations, Employment in Industry and Total Employment, King County, 2013 SOC Occupation Employment in Industry Employment in Other Industries Total Employment Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Share in Industry Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers 3, , % Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 1,543 2,537 4,080 38% Machinists 1,182 2,070 3,252 36% First-line supervisors of production and operating workers 691 3,446 4,137 17% Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic ,006 47% Painters, transportation equipment ,016 38% Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Tool and die makers % Fiberglass laminators and fabricators % Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ,043 19% Computer numerically controlled machine tool programmers, metal and plastic % Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Grinding and polishing workers, hand % Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Metal workers and plastic workers, all other % Tool grinders, filers, and sharpeners % Layout workers, metal and plastic % Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders % Metal-refining furnace operators and tenders % Production Occupations Subtotal 9,931 12,483 22,414 44% Industrial engineers 2,117 1,058 3,175 67% Aerospace engineers 2, ,942 70% Industrial engineering technicians ,064 73% Mechanical engineers 634 1,838 2,472 26% Electrical engineers 626 1,895 2,521 25% Engineers, all other 589 1,450 2,039 29% Materials engineers % Mechanical drafters % Aerospace engineering and operations technicians % Electronics engineers, except computer 236 1,309 1,545 15% Electrical and electronics drafters % Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other % Electro-mechanical technicians % Mechanical engineering technicians % Environmental engineering technicians % Architecture and Engineering Occupations Subtotal 9,026 10,079 19,105 47% Seattle-King County Page 4

15 Aerospace occupations fall within a range of SOC codes, with the highest concentrations among production and architecture and engineering, with almost 19,000 out of 31,367 employees within the aerospace industry, representing 60% of aerospace employment within King County. Additionally, these occupations have the greatest shares of total occupational employment within the aerospace industry, 44% for production and 47% for architecture and engineering. (Exhibit 1) Other SOC codes prominent within the aerospace industry include business and financial operations occupations; computer and mathematical occupations; installation, maintenance and repair occupations; management occupations; transportation and material moving occupations; life, physical, and social science occupations; protective service occupations; and construction and extraction occupations. These occupations, represent almost 40% of total aerospace occupational employment, at roughly 12,400 jobs. Almost 26,800 people within these occupations work outside the aerospace industry, overall 32% of total employment within these occupations is represented in the aerospace industry alone. (Exhibit 2) Seattle-King County Page 5

16 Exhibit 2. All Other Aerospace Occupations, Employment in Industry and Total Employment, King County, 2013 SOC Occupation Employment in Industry Employment in Other Industries Total Employment Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Share in Industry Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products 1,516 3,224 4,740 32% Logisticians 2, ,730 76% Training and development specialists 515 1,964 2,479 21% Budget analysts ,162 59% Business and Financial Operations Occupatinos Subtotal 4,799 6,312 11,111 43% Computer systems analysts 2,289 9,022 11,311 20% Information security analysts 225 1,220 1,445 16% Database administrators 340 1,439 1,779 19% Computer network architects 1,031 1,580 2,611 39% Mathematicians % Operations research analysts ,305 39% Computer and Mathematical Subtotal 4,484 14,080 18,564 24% Avionics technicians % Electric motor, power tool, and related repairers % Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment % Aircraft mechanics and service technicians ,310 28% Industrial machinery mechanics 488 1,234 1,722 28% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations Subtotal 2,005 2,639 4,644 43% Industrial production managers ,019 23% Architectural and engineering managers 398 2,083 2,481 16% Management Occupations Subtotal 628 2,872 3,500 18% Commercial pilots % Crane and tower operators % Transportation and Material Moving Occupations Subtotal % Materials scientists % Private detectives and investigators % Explosives workers, ordnance handling experts, and blasters % All Occupations 31,367 49,355 80,722 39% Employment within the aerospace industry among aerospace occupations is 31,367 employees in King County, and 39% of aerospace occupational employment is within the aerospace industry. Total employment among King County aerospace occupations is more than 80,720 employees, of which almost 49,360 work outside the aerospace industry. (Exhibit 2) Seattle-King County Page 6

17 Exhibit 3. Aerospace Occupations Median Wage and 90 th Percentile Wage, On-the-Job Training, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 2014 SOC Occupation Employment in Industry Median Wage 90th Percentile Wage Commercial pilots 157 $96,060 $154, Computer numerically controlled machine tool programmers, metal and plastic 179 $88,550 $120, Crane and tower operators 68 $78,690 $96, Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products 1,516 $70,570 $107, Tool grinders, filers, and sharpeners 88 $61,670 $98, Layout workers, metal and plastic 53 $59,860 $93, Industrial machinery mechanics 488 $58,180 $91, Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 1,543 $53,470 $91, Painters, transportation equipment 383 $51,310 $91, Machinists 1,182 $46,950 $79, Private detectives and investigators 79 $45,630 $91, Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 35 $37,110 $81, Metal-refining furnace operators and tenders 8 $36,780 $59, Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 194 $36,510 $71, Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 35 $36,040 $54, Welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders 29 $35,780 $59, Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 317 $35,560 $61, Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 146 $34,250 $57, Grinding and polishing workers, hand 157 $30,050 $52, Metal workers and plastic workers, all other 92 $29,450 $53, Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 174 $29,350 $46, Fiberglass laminators and fabricators 202 $29,040 $45, Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers 3,564 * * Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic 475 * * Tool and die makers 282 * * Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 103 * * Explosives workers, ordnance handling experts, and blasters 30 * * * indicates data is suppressed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in order to comply with nondisclosure rules. Due to data limitations median and 90 th percentile wages are those for the matching occupation in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, and are considered representative of wages in King County. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Aerospace occupations provide their workers with higher-than-average wages. Among all core aerospace occupations the occupation with the highest median wage are architectural engineering managers, followed by computer network architects. Out of 59 core aerospace occupations six occupations have median wages higher than $100,000, 17 occupations have 90 th percentile wages higher than $100,000. Of the 59 core aerospace occupations, 13 have median wages lower than $50,000, and three have median wages less than $30,000. Additionally, 15 have median wages Seattle-King County Page 7

18 lower than the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA average wage. (Exhibit 3 and 4) On-the-job training, associate degree or postsecondary award, bachelor s degree and master s degree or higher are categories used to break core occupations into key groupings. These categories are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics minimum education requirements for entry. These education levels are set at a national level and may not be fully reflective of the hiring practices in King County, or within individual companies. For example, interview feedback suggests that in the King County aerospace industry welders are required to have received a certificate from a welding program. Additionally, the education level breakouts are attached to the occupation, actual openings for these occupations may have different requirements, and the talent pool for these occupations may have a greater level of education than indicated by the minimum education level. These minimum education levels are used to group occupations by the relative level of education and training required for entry. Seattle-King County Page 8

19 Exhibit 4. Aerospace Occupations Median Wage and 90th Percentile Wage, Associate Degree or Postsecondary Award or Higher, Seattle- Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 2014 SOC Occupation Employment in Industry Median Wage 90th Percentile Wage Associate degree or Postsecondary Award Mechanical drafters 515 $76,170 $106, Engineering technicians, except drafters, all other 110 $70,640 $97, Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment 196 $69,570 $96, First-line supervisors of production and operating workers 691 $68,680 $109, Environmental engineering technicians 24 $66,440 $75, Mechanical engineering technicians 66 $63,620 $91, Electric motor, power tool, and related repairers 122 $61,660 $92, Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 361 * * Industrial engineering technicians 782 * * Avionics technicians 838 * * Aerospace engineering and operations technicians 413 * * Electrical and electronics drafters 188 * * Electro-mechanical technicians 92 * * Bachelor's degree Architectural and engineering managers 398 $143,070 * Computer network architects 1,031 $113,780 $153, Electronics engineers, except computer 236 $108,100 $152, Industrial production managers 230 $107,100 $164, Electrical engineers 626 $103,100 $149, Information security analysts 225 $101,870 $127, Database administrators 340 $97,870 $129, Computer systems analysts 2,289 $95,810 $144, Mechanical engineers 634 $91,350 $140, Operations research analysts 509 $88,890 $121, Engineers, all other 589 $83,540 $140, Budget analysts 689 $75,900 $114, Training and development specialists 515 $68,410 $108, Industrial engineers 2,117 * * Aerospace engineers 2,053 * * Logisticians 2,080 * * Materials engineers 579 * * Materials scientists 161 * * Master's degree or higher Mathematicians 90 * * * indicates that data is suppressed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in order to comply with nondisclosure rules. Due to data limitations median and 90 th percentile wages are those for the matching occupation in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, and are considered representative of wages in King County. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., As expected, aerospace occupations that have an on-the-job training education requirement have the lowest average wages, on par with the average wage across the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA. The average wage for the aerospace industry in $79,070, more than $20,000 higher than the regional average wage. Occupations requiring a bachelor s degree at minimum have an average wage of $99,250. (Exhibit 5) Seattle-King County Page 9

20 Exhibit 5. Comparative Average Wages, King County and Seattle- Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 2014 Employment Average Wage King County Aerospace Industry On-the-Job Training Occupations 11,578 $57,370 Associate Degree or Postsecondary Award Occupations 4,398 $71,471 Bachelor's Degree Occupations 15,301 $99,250 Master's Degree or Higher Occupations 90 * Aerospace Industry Total 31,367 $79,070 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA 1,761,920 $57,370 * indicates that data is suppressed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in order to comply with nondisclosure rules. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Aerospace occupations within the on-the-job training minimum education requirement group are representative of entry level jobs in the aerospace industry. Compared to other major King County sectors, aerospace has a relatively high average wage among entry level jobs. For instance, the average wage for entry aerospace level jobs is more than $15,000 higher than the average wage among on-the-job training occupations in the manufacturing sector and the transportation and logistics sector in King County. Additionally, these aerospace jobs are almost equivalent to entry level wages in professional, scientific, and technical services sector, which includes ten computer and mathematical occupations along with a wide range of architecture, engineering, business and financial operations. Exhibit 6. Comparative On-the-Job Training Wages across King County Industries, Employment Average Wage King County Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Sector 17,332 $58,395 King County Aerospace Industry 11,578 $57,370 King County Transportation and Logistics Sector 70,447 $42,058 King County Manufacturing Sector 39,593 $41,651 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA 807,119 $41,263 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County, 2013; Community Attributes Inc., The 49,355 jobs representing employment in other industries can also be examined by industry in which graduates are employed. The largest Seattle-King County Page 10

21 industry by aerospace occupational employment was computer systems design and related services, largely due to the amount of computer systems analysts employed in the industry. An additional 173 industries had fewer than 400 employees in aerospace core occupations. Together, the top 10 industries by aerospace occupational employment represented 45% of all aerospace occupations in other industries. (Exhibit 7) Exhibit 7. Aerospace Occupational Employment in Other Industries, 2013 Industry Aerospace Occupation Employment in Industry Computer systems design and related services 4,661 Architectural and engineering services 3,302 Management of Companies & Enterprises 3,037 Employment Services 2,238 Education 1,987 Wireless telecommunications carriers 1,836 Local Government Other 1,503 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. 1,293 Other general purpose machinery manufacturing 1,289 Scientific research and development services 1,192 Electronic instrument manufacturing 1,146 Plastics product manufacturing 1,006 General medical and surgical hospitals 945 Federal Government 940 Scheduled air transportation 877 Management and technical consulting services 841 Architectural and structural metals mfg. 782 Other miscellaneous manufacturing 697 Wired telecommunications carriers 638 Software Publishers 606 Metalworking machinery manufacturing 562 Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers 508 All Other Industries 17,468 Total 49,355 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., In total, 49,355 jobs in King County are aerospace occupations found in other industries. The largest representation is computer systems analysts with 9,022 people employed in other industries. All of the 59 aerospace occupations have at least some employment in other industries, and 32 of these occupations have fewer than 400 employees in non-aerospace industries. (Exhibit 8) Seattle-King County Page 11

22 Exhibit 8. Aerospace Occupation Employment in Other Industries, 2013 Occupation Employment in Other Industries Top Other Industry Computer systems analysts 9,022 Computer systems design and related services First-line supervisors of production and operating Grocery stores workers 3,446 Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and Local Government Other farm products 3,224 Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and Employment Services weighers 2,537 Architectural and engineering managers 2,083 Architectural and engineering services Machinists 2,070 Machine shops and threaded product mfg. Training and development specialists 1,964 Motor vehicle and parts merchant wholesalers Electrical engineers 1,895 Architectural and engineering services Mechanical engineers 1,838 Architectural and engineering services Computer network architects 1,580 Wired telecommunications carriers Engineers, all other 1,450 Employment Services Database administrators 1,439 Management of Companies & Enterprises Electronics engineers, except computer 1,309 Wireless telecommunications carriers Industrial machinery mechanics 1,234 Machinery and supply merchant wholesalers Information security analysts 1,220 Wireless telecommunications carriers Industrial engineers Other general purpose machinery manufacturing 1,058 Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 949 Scheduled air transportation Aerospace engineers 889 Architectural and engineering services Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, Architectural and structural metals mfg. operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 849 Operations research analysts 796 Software Publishers Industrial production managers 789 Electronic instrument manufacturing Logisticians 650 Management of Companies & Enterprises Painters, transportation equipment 633 Automotive repair and maintenance Computer-controlled machine tool operators, Metal and mineral merchant wholesalers metal and plastic 531 All Other Occupations 5,900 Total 49,355 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., The aerospace industry is increasingly reliant on occupations with IT skills. Altogether, 4,661 workers in aerospace occupations work in the computer systems design and related services industry. An additional 1,836 aerospace occupation workers are employed in the wired telecommunications industry (Exhibit 8). The skills required in the aerospace industry have a relatively strong degree of transferability, as 61% of aerospace occupational employment is in other industries. Aerospace industry stakeholders consistently discussed an increasing move toward high tech and automation within the industry. This trend is pushing aerospace occupations more and more into high tech. In some cases this creates challenges in recruitment and hiring for IT occupations due to competition from other high tech and information technology industries. Seattle-King County Page 12

23 Industry experts also addressed the high degree of cross-industry expertise between the aerospace industry and other advanced manufacturing industries. This presents the industry with both opportunities and challenges. There are opportunities for cross-industry collaboration in developing high quality training programs that can deepen the talent pool for all advanced manufacturers. The challenge is the dilution of the talent pool through cross-industry competition. Seattle-King County Page 13

24 DEMAND ANALYSIS: KING COUNTY AEROSPACE OCCUPATIONAL FORECASTS Total demand 1 for occupations matching the workforce needs of aerospace 2 in King County are projected to average 3,007 annual openings between 2018 and The occupation with the largest forecasted annual openings is computer systems analyst, with a projected 668 average annual openings. Computer systems analyst occupation are also expected to have the highest forecasted annualized growth rate in the aerospace industry, with a projected growth rate of 2.9% between 2018 and Other aerospace occupations with high projected growth rates are database administrators and information security analysts. (Exhibit 9) Looking at the aerospace industry specifically, aerospace occupations are forecasted to have 1,026 openings between 2018 and 2023, with the most openings found in the computer systems analyst occupation at 135 average annual openings. The occupation with the second-highest forecasted demand is aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers, with 79 openings annually between 2018 and (Exhibit 9) The shift toward information technology occupations may be part of a broader trend seen in the aerospace industry. Many occupations in the aerospace industry are anticipated to become increasingly reliant on skills related to information technology in order to increase productivity and efficiency. Furthermore, while total aerospace industry employment is expected to experience a decline in the future, this does not necessarily corroborate with the demand for certain occupations within the aerospace industry. As the nature of aerospace employment changes, it is likely that there will be increased demand for information technology and other high tech occupations. 1 Total demand may be underestimated, as the occupational projections used by the Employment Security Department represent the point of equilibrium between employment demand and supply. Thus employment projections do not account for unmet demand or unfilled jobs. 2 Total demand for occupations covers demand across all industries in King County and includes but is not limited to the aerospace industry. Seattle-King County Page 14

25 SOC Occupation Exhibit 9. King County Aerospace Occupational Demand per Year, 2018 and 2023 Estimated Estimated Employment Employment Average Annual Openings ( ) Average Annual Openings in Industry ( ) CAGR ( ) Computer systems analysts 13,370 15, % Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products 5,032 5, % Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 4,311 4, % Mechanical engineers 2,649 2, % Machinists 3,596 3, % Architectural and engineering managers 2,633 2, % Industrial engineers 3,196 3, % Electrical engineers 2,725 2, % Database administrators 2,057 2, % Industrial machinery mechanics 1,917 2, % Training and development specialists 2,651 2, % Computer network architects 2,806 3, % Aerospace engineers 2,865 2, % First-line supervisors of production and operating workers 4,341 4, % Engineers, all other 2,186 2, % Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers 3,540 3, % Electronics engineers, except computer 1,691 1, % Budget analysts 1,198 1, % Operations research analysts 1,414 1, % Information security analysts 1,621 1, % Logisticians 2,663 2, % Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic 996 1, % Aircraft mechanics and service technicians 1,308 1, % Industrial production managers 1,052 1, % Materials engineers % Industrial engineering technicians 1,050 1, % Crane and tower operators % Painters, transportation equipment 1,027 1, % Mechanical drafters % Commercial pilots % Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic 1,116 1, % Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment % Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic % Avionics technicians % Grinding and polishing workers, hand % Aerospace engineering and operations technicians % Mechanical engineering technicians % All Other Occupations (20) 3,816 3, % Total 85,954 91,497 3,007 1, % Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Seattle-King County Page 15

26 SUPPLY ANALYSIS: AVAILABILITY OF REGIONAL TALENT AND EMPLOYABLE WORKFORCE The local workforce supply is primarily composed of two elements: the entry of new graduates into the available talent pool and the existing talent pool of qualified unemployed workers actively seeking employment. Qualified graduates are drawn from the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education System (IPEDS) data via a match of Classification Instructional Program (CIP) codes to the appropriate SOC codes. These are totaled by SOC code, including duplicates, and are then adjusted down according to the workforce-wide occupational demand. Unemployment insurance claimants are organized by their most recent occupation (i.e. SOC codes) and represent the second element of supply. It is important to note that workers from outside King County can fill talent gaps, but are not assessed in this analysis. Local Graduates IPEDS standardizes educational curriculum with CIP codes. Each CIP code matches several SOC codes because graduates from the same program are qualified to be employed in a variety of occupations and industries. Similarly, each occupation may draw on graduates from several relevant CIP codes. For example, graduates in airframe mechanics and aircraft maintenance technology/technician programs are qualified to work as aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging and system assemblers as well as aircraft mechanics and services technicians. The latter occupation also draws on graduates from aircraft powerplant technology/technician programs (Exhibit 10). Exhibit 10. Other Occupational Matches for Graduates Qualified to Work as Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers CIP Description SOC Description Airframe Mechanics and Aircraft Maintenance Technology/Technician Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers Aircraft Powerplant Technology/Technician Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Avionics Maintenance Avionics Technicians Technology/Technician. Sources: National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education System, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Accredited programs matching to one or more aerospace occupation(s) must be summarized across educational institutions located in the county in order to determine the number of graduates that will be able to fill forecasted annual openings within the aerospace industry in King County. Graduation data is tied to the primary location of the educational institution providing the accredited program. Therefore, institutions Seattle-King County Page 16

27 located outside of King County are not included as part of the local talent supply. In King County, a total of 7,731 annual educational program completions are in fields that match to one or more aerospace occupation(s). Of these fields, 19 have fewer than 20 annual completions and there are 13 program areas that match to aerospace occupations but have no annual completions in King County. The top 20 fields account for almost 84% of completions that link to one or more aerospace occupation(s). The top CIP code in this segment is Business Administration and Management, General. With 1,548 annual completions, this single program area accounts for 20% of all completions that match to one or more aerospace occupation(s). (Exhibit 11) Exhibit 11. Total Graduates by CIP Codes that Match to One or More Aerospace Occupation(s), King County, 2014 CIP Description Graduates Business Administration and Management, General 1, Business/Commerce, General Accounting Welding Technology/Welder Electrical and Electronics Engineering Finance, General Computer Systems Networking and Telecommunications Mathematics, General Mechanical Engineering Computer and Information Sciences, General Civil Engineering, General Computer Science Manufacturing Engineering Technology/Technician Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew Machine Tool Technology/Machinist Drafting and Design Technology/Technician, General CAD/CADD Drafting and/or Design Technology/Technician Architecture Aerospace, Aeronautical and Astronautical/Space Engineering Applied Mathematics, General Chemical Engineering Materials Engineering Bioengineering and Biomedical Engineering Logistics, Materials, and Supply Chain Management Human Resources Management/Personnel Administration, General City/Urban, Community and Regional Planning Computer Engineering, General Industrial Engineering Autobody/Collision and Repair Technology/Technician Information Technology Network and System Administration/Administrator 50 All Other Programs 449 Total 7,731 Sources: National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education System, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., Examining the same completions by the institution from which they graduated shows the geographic source of qualified aerospace occupation candidates, and the institutions from which King County residents graduate and move on to fill aerospace occupational openings. The Seattle-King County Page 17

28 institution with the largest total graduates qualified for aerospace occupations was the University of Washington s Seattle Campus with just under 3,100 graduates or 40% of total graduates. The top five institutions together including the University of Washington s Bothell Campus account for 70% of qualified graduates. (Exhibit 12) Exhibit 12. King County s Educational Institutions by Graduates Qualified for Aerospace Occupations, 2014 Institution Graudates Qualified for Aerospace Occupations University of Washington-Seattle Campus 3,096 Seattle University 664 Green River Community College 653 University of Washington-Bothell Campus 612 South Seattle College 355 Bellevue College 350 Lake Washington Institute of Technology 304 City University of Seattle 257 Shoreline Community College 221 North Seattle College 191 Highline College 151 Seattle Pacific University 146 Renton Technical College 142 University of Phoenix-Washington 137 DeVry University-Washington 123 Cascadia College 91 ITT Technical Institute-Seattle 77 Northwest University 51 Pinchot University 51 Argosy University-Seattle 24 Seattle Central College 21 Bakke Graduate University 6 DigiPen Institute of Technology 4 Antioch University-Seattle 3 Sanford-Brown College-Seattle 1 Total 7,731 Sources: National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education System, 2014; Community Attributes Inc., In order to determine the number of potential graduates that are likely to fill occupations within King County s aerospace industry, qualified graduates are totaled by every possible combination of CIP and SOC codes. Each combination is adjusted to match the ratio of occupational employment to total occupational employment for all possible occupations matching to relevant CIPs. This method results in an estimate of how many graduates could potentially be employed in each available occupation. Each estimate is adjusted to account for the approximate share of local graduates who obtain work locally after graduation, by multiplying the estimates by a 95% local retention rate 3. Lastly, the number of graduates expected to seek work locally is adjusted 3 The local retention rate of employment is very high for King County due to the high proportion of aerospace industry employment in King County compared to statewide industry employment. Seattle-King County Page 18

29 again to account for the number of local graduates who can be reasonably expected to fill positions within the aerospace industry. This approach yields a total of 2,485 graduates in 2014 who are qualified for the needs of the aerospace industry. Among these qualified graduates, 116 graduates are in aerospace occupations that require on-the-job training 4. (Exhibits 14 and 15) IPEDS data is only available through the academic year. Because the majority of completions occur at the end of the spring semester, students who complete programs during the academic year are most likely to seek employment in Completions data provides a snapshot of what educational programs are expected to look like in future years if current conditions do not change. IPEDS data only captures information on people who complete programs in postsecondary schools. This means that high school graduates, many of whom may be appropriately qualified for certain positions, are not counted in this analysis. Industry stakeholders indicated a shifting focus toward training programs for high school students, as well as internships and work-based learning opportunities. Interviewees said it would behoove the aerospace industry to focus messaging around high quality aerospace jobs and training programs as alternative educational paths. This approach challenges the traditional ideology that students need a four-year degree to achieve occupational success. A wide range of educational institutions, high school programs and training centers provide training options for aerospace occupations. As IPEDS data only includes information about postsecondary schools, some of the graduates from King County training programs are not captured in the King County talent pipeline supply. The Washington Aerospace Training & Research Center has locations in Renton and Everett. This center has training programs for aerospace manufacturing assembly mechanics, aerospace electrical assembly mechanics, aerospace quality assurance, aerospace tooling and aerospace composites. King County high schools are also starting to provide or are expanding vocational programs in cooperation with industry leaders. Raisbeck Aviation High School, in the Highline Public School District, offers high school education tailored toward aerospace and aviation training. Highline Public Schools also offers the Puget Sound Skills Center, which provides students with training in aerospace assembly and engineering. These programs are also coordinated with aerospace employers to offer internships and work-based learning opportunities to provide students a 4 These occupations are undercounted due to the lack of information linking programs to occupations outside of IPEDS. Seattle-King County Page 19

30 well-rounded education and prepare them to enter the workforce directly out of high school. Another high school career program is Core Plus, developed by the Washington State Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), Boeing and the Manufacturing Industrial Council. Core skills are transferable throughout advanced manufacturing, marine trades, construction, agriculture and related support services. Plus skills are specific to a single sector. OSPI uses industry experts to help teachers learn Core Plus Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSAs). Initiated in 2012, Core Plus instruction is now available at 37 schools across the state through classes in aircraft and marine technology, metal fabricating, machining, composites and construction. In King County, instruction is available in the Highline, Seattle and Renton school districts. Students in many programs earn college credits through articulation agreements with local community colleges. State grants will add 20 more programs over the next two years. A new Core Plus Aircraft Manufacturing Curriculum developed by Boeing will be available through OSPI. It spans up to two years of instruction (four semesters) and can be adapted to high school classes providing instruction times of 180, 360, 500 and 1,000 hours. The curriculum will be the basis for Core Plus teacher and student certificates. It is also the basis for credit equivalencies that will enable students to earn math, science and English graduation credits based on relevant Core Plus KSAs. Community colleges in King County are also working with the aerospace industry to increase their training offerings to prepare students for aerospace occupations of the future. Some of these programs were recently added, thus talent supply from these programs may not yet be included in the IPEDS data. South Seattle College is adding a program to provide certificate training for Computer Numerical Control Machinist at its Georgetown campus. Green River Community College is adding a new BAS program in aeronautical science. There is a wide range of community college and technical college programs offering training in machining, quality inspection, welding, software programming, engineering and more. These programs are spread throughout King County (Exhibit 13) and are part of a broader ecosystem of aerospace-focused training programs found throughout Washington. Seattle-King County Page 20

31 Exhibit 13. King County Aerospace Industry Educational Assets, 2015 Sources: King County Aerospace Alliance, 2016; Workforce Development Council of Seattle-King County, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., Page 21