DEVELOPMENT OF A DEMAND MODELLER AND TRACKING TOOL: TO ENGAGE LAND USE PLANNING AUTHORITIES IN THE OPTIMISATION OF WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE NETWORKS

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1 DEVELOPMENT OF A DEMAND MODELLER AND TRACKING TOOL: TO ENGAGE LAND USE PLANNING AUTHORITIES IN THE OPTIMISATION OF WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE NETWORKS Chris Teitzel 1, Ken Goraya 1, Partha Susarla 1 1. Unitywater, QLD, Australia HIGHLIGHTS An unique and innovative tool developed by Unitywater for forecasting and tracking capacity in the water supply and sewage networks The tool can be used by town planners to identify spare capacity for development The tool can be implemented and configured for any utility or authority in any State or Territory Currently being implemented by Unitywater across its service area. (Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay Regional Councils and Noosa Shire Councils). INTRODUCTION Unitywater operates in one of the fastest developing regions in Australia. The population of the region is expected to grow by 63% in next 25 years. To meet the requirements of this challenge of projected growth, Unitywater must be smart in developing tools for strategic planning to support the efficient delivery of network infrastructure. The basis for long term infrastructure (master) planning is the underlying growth assumptions that forecast population and non residential demand. The development of demand forecasts to support infrastructure planning is a highly complex process that requires collaboration between town planners, network planners and planning engineers. Many utilities use manual procedures and ad-hoc approaches to prepare demand projections which are time consuming, have poor transparency which results in inconsistencies. In the faster developing regions such as Unitywater s service area, growth assumptions change from year to year based upon prevailing economic conditions. The key drivers for the development of Unitywater s Demand Modeller and Tracking Tool (DMaTT) are increasing the efficient utilisation of network assets by identifying the efficient sequence of development and where spare exists to serve new development. There is also a need for a credible and repeatable tool that could model network demand associated with population growth, changes in land use and approved development to inform prudent and efficient cost decision making in capital works planning. METHODOLOGY The purpose of the demand modeller and tracking tool (DMaTT) project is to develop and implement an automated demand modelling, forecasting and tracking tool at Unitywater that is credible, consistent, transparent and repeatable. The project was initiated in 2012 and was developed in-house with the assistance of software vendor Sizztech and was deployed in early The DMaTT tool allows forecasting of future demand and planning for the provision of water supply and sewerage infrastructure to support future growth in a sustainable manner. The DMaTT tool has the ability to prepare baseline projected and ultimate development data for dwellings, population, floor space, employment and network demand

2 (Equivalent Person, Equivalent Tenement or any other demand unit) at a property level that can be summarised and displayed at any catchment scale (i.e. locality or water supply catchment). The tool was developed in.net platform and has ability to prepare forecast models through a live website interface linked to GIS spatial databases. The DMaTT website interface allows forecast models to be configured, run, exported and reconfigured at any time with three main modules: Forecast Model Builder: building and configuration of forecast models (see Figure 1) Forecast Model Viewer: viewing and comparing forecast model demand at a catchment scale (see Figure 2) Forecast Demand Viewer: viewing GIS layers and forecast model demand at a property level by planning and development assessment staff (see Figure 3) The key spatial information inputs into DMaTT forecast models include baseline land use, development approvals, development constraints, planning scheme density provisions and state government long term population growth projections sourced from Local Councils. Figure 4 is a graphical representation of how the DMaTT tool constructs forecast models. A key innovation of the DMaTT tool is the use of Bayesian Network (BN) for predicting the sequence of development and growth. A BN is used to score each property against a range of criteria (e.g. land vacancy, development approval, commercial viability and proximity to trunk infrastructure). The higher the combined score (which is known as development desirability index) the more likely development is to occur. Growth is automatically allocated to properties with the highest development desirability index until the catchment population/floor space for each cohort is reached. The BN can be amended or reconfigured at any time and loaded into the DMaTT website interface for the reprocessing of forecast models. DMaTT also has the ability to run more than one forecast model based on what if scenario with changed growth parameters. These scenarios can be compared to understand the impact of demand distribution. This is very useful in understanding the impact of a new development front on the previous infrastructure planned and hence provides information for just in time delivery of the capital works program. For network modellers and consultants, the DMaTT website interface has an export function where adopted forecast model demand at a property level can be exported for linking to external GIS property layers and network models. An example is shown in Figure 5. CONCLUSION DMaTT is currently being implemented by Unitywater to forecast growth and manage demand across Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay Regional Councils and Noosa Shire Council areas. Forecast models developed using DMaTT will inform new network master planning and a revised capital works program. DMaTT can be used for the generation of dwelling, population, floor space (GFA), employment and network demand projections. DMaTT will also be used by Unitywater development assessment staff for assessment of water supply and sewer connection applications. An exciting outcome from the project is that users who could benefit from the DMaTT tool extend well beyond Unitywater. The DMaTT tool can be implemented and configured for any utility or authority in any state or territory that use an ArcGIS platform.

3 Figure 1: DMaTT Model Builder interface Figure 2: DMaTT Model Viewer interface

4 Figure 3: DMaTT Demand Viewer interface Figure 4: DMaTT Demand Viewer interface property demand projections

5 Figure 4: Graphical representation of DMaTT Forecast Models Figure 5: DMaTT Forecast Models Export function