Integration and Prioritization of Concepts

Transcription

1 Integration and Prioritization of Concepts February 1, 2007 Richard E. Hayes, Ph.D. President, Evidence Based Research, Inc. Chief Scientist, Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) 1595 Spring Hill Road, Suite 250 Vienna, VA , ext EBR, Inc. website: CCRP website: Disclaimer: The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or Evidence Based Research, Inc., and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

2 ACT Integration and Prioritization Integration is not explicitly recognized in the ACT CDE Development Process. Integration occurs as part of: Identification of strategic needs, Development of capability requirements, Conducting gap analysis, and Identifying and selecting solutions. Prioritization occurs within the ACT CDE Development Process at several decision points: Determining relevance, Approval of the outline plan, and Concept maturity assessment. Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 2

3 Integration Processes (1) Integration is essential because: Many sources will develop similar or related ideas Nations in constant consultation NATO experiencing problems together Science and technology progress across nations Media reporting of challenges, technologies, and issues Concepts are often interdependent: Some depend on others Not all at the same level of abstraction Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 3

4 Integration Processes (2) Integration processes must be collaborative: Involve all stakeholders Involve key expertise professional military, academic, and industry Collaboration means working together for a common purpose External peer review is essential Integration processes must be authoritative: The results set the agenda for CD&E CD&E Plan provides the authoritative list for ACT Integration must remain an open process Some new concepts will emerge out of cycle Some existing concepts will prove to include more than one useful idea Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 4

5 Prioritization No organization can afford to pursue all potentially useful concepts. Prioritization is a process: First order prioritization (Relevance for ACT) indicates a concept may be worth development. Second order prioritization (Approval of the Outline Plan for ACT) indicates that a reasonable approach exists for developing a concept. Third order prioritization (Maturity Assessment for ACT) indicates that a concept is ready for implementation. Prioritization must consider the range of missions supported by a concept. Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 5

6 Concept Development and Experimentation: From Theory to Practice Acquisition Alberts et al., Code of Best Practice for Experimentation, p26. Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 6

7 Prioritization Processes (1) Logically prioritization requires only three elements: Definitive list of the concepts to be prioritized Explicit criteria by which priorities will be established Specific weights assigned to each of the criteria Generation of lists, criteria, and weights should all be collaborative, transparent, and dynamic. Technical prioritization informs decisionmakers: Informal criteria, particularly distribution considerations, often play a key role in final decisions Resource allocation is crucial in second (Approval of Outline Plan) and third (Maturity Assessment) order prioritization within ACT and NATO Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 7

8 Prioritization Processes (2) Prioritization often describes categories (e.g., relevant, not yet relevant) rather than cardinal rankings. First order prioritization (relevance) should not focus on cost or resource availability they cannot be assessed meaningfully at that point. Second and third order prioritization must consider: Costs Other resources Potential partners Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 8

9 Prioritization Tool: Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (1) Perfect match to the idea of formal prioritization. Developed by decision analysts. Items being valued (concepts) form the horizontal axis a list. Columns reflect the explicit criteria by which the prioritization or assessment is being evaluated. Values for each concept on each criterion are generated from empirical data (e.g., estimated costs) or expert opinion (e.g., number of mission areas covered by the innovation). Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 9

10 Prioritization Tool: Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (2) Values are normalized to place them all on the same scale. Weights are assigned to each column or criterion. These are derived from guidance or the authority responsible for the prioritization. Cross-multiplying the values by the columns weight yields the estimated utility of each concept in each column. Adding the values across the criteria will yield the comparative utility of each concept, given the criteria and weights. Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 10

11 Example MAU Analysis Assigned Values Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3 Concept A Concept B Concept C Concept D Weights Weighted Values Estimated Utility Concept A Concept B Concept C Concept D Concept D is rated highest. Why? Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 11

12 Integration and Prioritization Issues for ACT How are stakeholders and peer reviewers brought into the processes of CD&E integration and prioritization with ACT? How is the range of NATO roles and threats reflected in the prioritization processes? How can prioritization be influenced by potential cost sharing with nations? With industry? Concept Development and Experimentation Course Allied Command Transformation 29 Jan 2 Feb 07 12