Business Climate Index Iran 2015

Transcription

1 Business Climate Index Iran 2015 Ambivalent view on the economic development in 2015 In 2016 positive impulses are expected Reforms in the financing sector, in bureaucracy and corruption are demanded

2 2 Summary The German Iranian Chamber of Commerce ( Deutsch-Iranische Industrie und Handelskammer -AHK Iran) made a survey in November 2015 on the business climate in Iran for the first time. Focus Areas were the current investment conditions in the country, changes due to the nuclear deal in July 2015 as well as the companies expectations for the future. A total of 120 companies answered the questions, 90 percent of them being Iranian companies. The evaluation was anonymous. After thirteen years of negotiations between Iran and the veto-holding powers (China, France, Great Britain, Russia, USA) and Germany on July 14th 2015 a breakthrough was achieved. There is a great relief within the Iranian People and one can feel the sense of excitement among them. Overview of the current results: 1. The atmosphere is ambivalent: 35 percent of the respondents have realized an improvement of the business climate in Iran. 33 percent of them could not realize any changes. 32 percent of the respondents felt a negative development percent of the respondents see a bright future for percent expect stagnation and 11 percent expect a regressive development percent of the respondents rated the present state of business within the companies to be good, 45 percent said the situation is satisfactory and 29 percent claimed it to be bad. 4. For the majority of the responding companies the biggest obstacle is the impossibility of transferring funds directly with Iran. Most expectations go towards the Iranian government to reduce bureaucracy and corruption. 5. The greatest advantages for the Iranian market are seen especially in the growth and profit potential but also in the immense natural resources of the country as well as its specialists. 6. From the point of view of the investors the energy and natural resource industry have the greatest growth prospects. Further they expect good growth opportunities in the branches of electrical engineering, information technology, telecommunication, consulting, logistics, and the automotive industry.

3 3 Ambivalent atmosphere in 2015, optimism for 2016 The Iranian business climate in 2015 was ambivalent: Whereas 30% of the companies said the year 2015 to be a positive one (5% of them even a very positive one), 33% of them realized no changes. 24% of them recognized a slightly negative development and 8% of them a negative development. How did the general business climate in Iran change since the beginning of 2015? very positive positive unaltert slightly negative negative 8% 5% 24% 30% 33% A similar picture can be seen for the current situation of the companies. 20% find the situation in the company to be good and 6% to be excellent. Further 45% said it to be satisfactory. 29% of the respondent rated the situation to be bad.

4 How do you rate the present state of business of your country in Iran? 4 excellent good satisfactory bad very bad 29% 0% 6% 20% 45% Nevertheless there is an optimistic outlook for the future. 6% of the responding companies see a very positive development for 2016, 55% a positive development. 28% expect stagnation and only 11% expect a recession. How will the Iraninan economy develop in 2016? very positive positive remain static declining very declining 11% 0% 6% 28% 55% This overall positive outlook is also reflected in the personnel planning of the companies in Iran. 42% of the companies will recruit labor forces. Other 42% of the companies are planning no changes concerning their number of employees. 16% of their respondent are planning to release employees.

5 How do you evaluate the development of the number of employees in your company in Iran? 5 increasing constant decreasing 16% 42% 42% Almost half of the responding companies (45%) are planning specific investment projects in Iran. 27% are yet uncertain, 28% will remain the same. Are you planning investments within the next few months in Iran? yes no potentially 27% 45% 28% The companies claim for abolishing the sanctions In big international rankings concerning investing conditions and transparency Iran is still ranked in the back positions. Some companies share this opinion. Great hope is placed in lifting the sanctions. Hitherto financial transactions from or to Iran are impossible. Due to the survey of the business climate index this is the biggest barrier to investment. Especially bureaucracy, recession and corruption are seen as big obstacles by the responding companies. They

6 6 want more reform steps, in particular in fighting protectionism as well as unemployment and certification procedure. Other Certification Custom Tender Tax Recession Legal situation Protectionismus Migration/visa Localization requirements Corruption Inflation Financing Skills shortage Bureaucracy Unenployment unbeneficial beneficial Growth and profit opportunities as well as natural resources are advantages of the Iranian market When asked about the advantages of the Iranian market most of the companies answer the country s great growth and profit opportunities as well as the immense natural resources of the country. Besides the qualified specialists, also the special economic zones, consumer behavior and the competitive pressure of the companies is seen as an advantage for Iran as an attractive investment location. Whereas compared to other investment locations it is seen as a disadvantage that there are hardly any financing opportunities, no support of the administration as well as the opaque standards and norms.

7 What do you think are the advantages as well as the disadvantages of the Iranian market? 7 Other Customs clearance Financing options Support by the administration Infrastructure Standards and norms Legal framework Access to information Cost structures Natural ressources Human ressources Competitive pressure Special economic zones Taxation Consumer behavior Growth opportunities/profit unbeneficial beneficial 174 Energy and natural resource industry with great growth perspectives With lifting the sanctions there will be good chances for almost any sector in Iran due to the pent-up demand and need of modernization. From the point of view of the responding companies the energy industry in Iran has the biggest growth perspective in the upcoming years. Besides that, they see good growth opportunities for electrical engineering, information technology, telecommunication, counseling, logistic and transport sectors, renewable energies and the whole automotive sector. Further they expect a positive development in the healthcare industry, in distribution and retailing, in agriculture, in the nutrition industry, machine and plant engineering, in the construction industry and in chemistry.

8 8 In which sector do you expect the greatest growth in Iran for the upcoming years? Other Metallurgy Machine and plant engineering Logistic/traffic Agriculture/nutrition industry Information technology/telecommunication Distribution and retailing Healthcare industry Renewable energies Energy (oil/gas) Electrical engineering Consulting/legal counselling Chemistry Agriculture Automotive