Commercial Fatal Accident Rates Across Nations and the Cultural Dimension of Uncertainty Avoidance (A Stress Correlate)

Transcription

1 Commercial Fatal Accident Rates Across Nations and the Cultural Dimension of Uncertainty Avoidance (A Stress Correlate) Fred A. Infortunio, DBA, MS-ChE, PE, CSP 1

2 Stress - Accidents Warshaw (1979), stress is certainly related to accidents: Stress is known to cause accidents. Stress affects the lives of all people everywhere. It is a cause of illness and accidents.... stress affects personality, modifying our perceptions, feelings, attitudes, and behavior.... it reaches beyond its immediate victims to affect the political, social, and work organizations (p. 3). 2

3 Stress - Accidents Lynn (1971) and Lynn and Hampson (1974, 1974) high anxiety groups tend to have higher accident rates and they tend to consume more alcohol. They used accident rates and alcohol consumption as measures in the development of their anxiety rankings. Both of these factors loaded in the same direction in their factor analysis (factor loadings of.66 and.68 respectively). 3

4 Stress vs. Accidents Mearns and Flynn (1999) The society, in which an organization is immersed, might have a greater impact on safety than the culture of the organization. It is reasonably easy to see how a national or organizational culture that is chronically stressed or anxious (Lynn, 1971) might have significantly higher accident rates than those cultures that are more at ease. 4

5 Stress vs. Accidents Lynn (1971) and Lynn and Hampson (1974, 1974) noted that high anxiety groups tend to have higher accident rates and they tend to consume more alcohol. They used accident rates and alcohol consumption as measures in the development of their anxiety rankings. 5

6 Cultural Measures Hofstede (1984, 1997, 2001) presented cultural measures that might be useful in determining the propensity of a society to suffer high levels of accidents. 6

7 The Hofstede Study He analyzed an international cultural survey done by IBM, on IBM offices, across 64 countries, using 116,000 individuals in a single industry The questions were presented in twenty languages. The results for the 40 largest subsidiaries were analyzed in the creation of the culture indexes. 7

8 Uncertainty Avoidance (UAI) - (Stress Surrogate) Hofstede (2001) defined the uncertainty avoidance dimension in the following manner. Uncertainty avoidance... is the extent to which a culture programs its members to feel comfortable or uncomfortable in unstructured situations.... The basic problem is the degree in which a society tries to control the uncontrollable. (p. xix) 8

9 Stress - Accidents - UAI There is a great deal of literature that relates stress, of which uncertainty avoidance is considered a measure, to accident rates (Hofstede, 2001). High stress has been noted to be significantly related to accidents. Several of the cultural attributes associated with high uncertainty avoidance could be causal or in other ways related to accidents in society. 9

10 UAI - Stress Hofstede (1984) was able to relate Lynn s anxiety and accident rankings in a rank comparison analysis. In an 18 nation comparison to their anxiety factor, his Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) had a r s =.73 (p <.05). The UAI index was developed with a large stress component. Their anxiety factor was developed by a 12 variable factor-analysis across 18 countries that includes high accident death rates and high alcoholism rates. 10

11 UAI - Stress The countries with high UAI scores tend to have higher anxiety ratings (Hofstede, 1984, 1997, 2001; Lynn, 1971; Lynn and Hampson, 1975, 1977). The promulgation of strict rules in the groups of countries with high UAI rankings may be the result of a society trying to protect itself from the outcomes that have befallen them. 11

12 UAI - Stress In high UAI ranked societies there is a fear of failure. Everything is forbidden except that which is permitted. Low UAI ranked societies have an expectation of success. Everything is permitted except that which is forbidden. 12

13 UAI - Stress Hofstede (1984, p. 127) high UAI scores as the lack of willingness to take risks; this position would lead to a belief that low UAI rankings might lead to high accident rates. Counter intuitively to this, the willingness to take risks may be as a result of being successful in taking those risks, or at least, not significantly suffering any ill consequences of taking those risks. 13

14 UAI - Fear of Failure Hofstede (1984, p130) stated that the high achievement motivation in the high UAI countries may stem more from [a] fear of failure while in low UAI countries it is more a hope of success (p. 130). 14

15 UAI - Accidents Hofstede (1984) listed faster car driving and higher accidents being associated with a high UAI score Lower speed limits and less road accidents as being associated with low UAI scores. 15

16 UAI ~ Stress ~ Accidents Fear and paranoia are counterproductive to good personal security. Now, there are times when it is prudent to be in a heightened state of awareness, but people are simply not designed to operate in that state for prolonged periods. Stratfor-Security Letter 10/6/10 16

17 Methodology Using Hofsted s relative rankings for UAI The average was determined and countries were assigned either a high or low UAI ranking. The rankings were then compared to the fatal accident rate rankings over the 30 year period for ~ 30 countries for 7 industrial categories. 17

18 Methodology Here due to imprecision of the data, highlow rankings were assigned. Hi Low rates were compared to Hi-Low UAI categories. This method lends itself to a Chi-Sq direction type analysis. 18

19 Chi-Sq Tests 2734 usable data points 30 years 7 major industry segments, 168 and 136 tests. Accidents vs. UAI (159/9); X 2 (1,N=168) > 192; Accidents vs. PDI/IDV (poster session) (131/5); X 2 (1,N=136) > 96;

20 7 Industries Chi-Sq Direction Tests UAI Agriculture 15/1 5/2 (NS) Construction 27/2 29/0 Manufacturing 28/2 28/2 Mining 30/0 30/0 Trade (retail) 19/1 8/0 Transportation 24/0 13/0 Utilities 16/3 18/1 159/9 131/5 P/I (poster session) 20

21 Questions? 21

22 Power Distance (PDI) To be presented at a poster session. Power Distance... is the extent to which the less powerful members of organizations and institutions accept and expect that power is distributed unequally. The basic problem involved is the degree of human inequality that underlies the functioning of each particular society. (p. xix) 22

23 Individualism Collectivism (IDV) To be presented at a poster session. Individualism... versus its opposite, collectivism..., is the degree to which individuals are supposed to look after themselves or remain integrated into groups, usually around the family. Positioning itself between these poles is a very basic problem all societies face. (P. xx) 23

24 Hofstede Culture Correlations To be presented at poster session PDI IDV (r = -.68, p =.001) PDI UAI (r =.23, ns) UAI IDV (r = -.33, p =.01) PDI/IDV UAI (r =.26, p =.059) 24

25 Power Distance and Individuality Chi-Sq Test Results Accidents vs. PDI/IDV (131/5); X 2 (1,N=136) > 96;