A comparison of shortage and surplus occupations based on analyses of data from the European Public Employment Services and Labour Force Surveys

Transcription

1 A comparison of shortage and surplus occupations based on analyses of data from the European Public Employment Services and Labour Force Surveys Written by ICON-INSTITUT Public Sector GmbH John McGrath and Jasmina Behan February Social Europe

2 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Directorate B Employment Unit B.1 Employment Strategy Contact: Gelu Calacean EMPL-PES-SECRETARIAT@ec.europa.eu European Commission B-1049 Brussels

3 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 A comparison of shortage and surplus occupations based on analyses of data from the European Public Employment Services and Labour Force Surveys

4 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). LEGAL NOTICE This document has been prepared for the European Commission, however, it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet ( Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 ISBN: doi: / European Union, 2017 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use of photo which are not under the European Union copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder(s) indicated. 4

5 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Table of contents Executive Summary Introduction Analysis of shortages/surpluses using PES data main findings Introduction Analysis of shortage occupations Analysis of surplus occupations Analysis of geographic distribution of shortage and surplus occupations Analysis of overlapping shortage and surplus occupations Conclusions Analysis of shortages and surpluses using LFS data main findings Introduction The development of the LFS shortage and surplus indicators Analysis of shortages at European level The identification of some shortages by country The identification of significant shortages by country The identification of surpluses Conclusions Matching PES and LFS identified shortages Introduction Comparison of the most widespread PES and LFS shortages Comparison of the most widespread significant PES and LFS shortages Comparison of the most widespread PES and LFS shortages in the same country Comparison of PES and LSF surpluses Conclusions Developing a model for identification of shortage and surplus occupations Conclusions Annex 1 PES data and methodology Annex 2 LFS data and methodology Annex 3 The ratio of unemployed to new hires

6 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In December 2015, a report was completed for the European Commission which identified shortage occupations based on an analysis of data submitted by 23 European Public Employment Services (PES). The current report is a follow-up to that report. This report, however, expands the analyses to include analyses of surplus occupations and explores possible matching of shortages and surpluses across countries. It also explores the possibility of using the European Labour Force Survey (LFS) to identify shortage and surplus occupations. Table 1 shows the results of the analyses of the top 19 occupations identified as shortages by most PES. The arrows show the position of each shortage occupation relative to last year s results in terms of the number of PES who identified it as a shortage occupation. Table 1 Top occupations classified as shortages by most PES in 2016 (bold denotes shortage is significant) Occupation Number of PES (comparison to 2015) Occupation Number of PES (comparison to 2015) Software and applications developers 21 ( ) Nursing and midwifery professionals 13 ( ) Sales and purchasing agents and brokers 17 ( ) Cooks 12 ( ) Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades 16 ( ) Machinery, mechanics and repairers 12 ( ) Building frame and related trades workers 16 ( ) Physical and engineering science technicians 12 ( ) Medical doctors 16 ( ) Shop sales persons 12 ( ) Sheet metal workers, moulders and welders 16 ( ) Database and network professionals 10 ( ) Electrical equipment installers and repairers 15 ( ) Food processing and related trades workers 10 ( ) Heavy truck and bus drivers 14 ( ) Other health professionals 10 ( ) Building finishers and related trades workers 13 ( ) Personal care workers in health services 10 ( ) Engineering professionals 13 ( ) Virtually all of the shortage occupations identified as such in last year s report were also classified by most PES as shortage occupations in the current report. There was a higher incidence of shortage across Europe (i.e. more reported by PES) for nine occupations, while seven occupations had lower incidence, and three occupations were recorded as having the same incidence as The analyses also revealed that there was considerable potential for managing imbalances in the European labour market, by encouraging job-seekers in surplus occupations to consider applying for jobs in countries where those occupations were classified as shortage occupations. In general, however, the number of surplus occupations identified by the PES was considerably lower than the number of shortage occupations. This may reflect the growth in employment in Europe in recent years and the subsequent tightening of the labour market. Some of the occupations classified as shortage occupations by the PES were for relatively low-skilled workers such as labourers, cleaners and shop assistants. There are no obvious barriers to entry to these occupations so the fact that they are in shortage implies that many job-seekers are put off from working in these occupations (for instance due to low pay or anti-social hours). 6

7 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 It is important that a distinction is made between the shortages which arise from recruitment and retention problems, and shortages which reflect skill deficits, as the appropriate policy responses differ. An active labour market programme may resolve a shortage caused by skill deficits for example, but it will not successfully address a shortage which primarily reflects retention difficulties related to working conditions However, there may be a role for EURES (the European network of employment services) in stimulating improved cross-border matching and addressing such shortages. To facilitate such a process, the report provides an analyses of the geographic distribution throughout the EU28/Norway/Iceland of the top twenty shortage and surplus occupations identified by the PES. These occupations are presented at the level of individual job-titles so that direct matching possibilities can be identified. The analysis presented in this report also used the European Labour Force Survey (LSF) to cross check for shortages and surpluses against the PES findings. It used a number of indicators including the atypical education level, the share of non-nationals and the ratio between the unemployed and new hires. The latter is particularly useful in distinguishing between skill shortages and labour shortages as the ratio is typically low in cases where the shortage reflects skill deficits and relatively high where the shortage reflects retention issues. Unfortunately, as the Labour Force Survey is based on a sample, this method does not provide reliable data for many occupations in the smaller European labour markets, and the indicator values for the total European labour market were used as a proxy in these cases. The analysis indicated a considerable degree of overlap between the shortage occupations identified by most PES and those identified in the analyses of LFS data in the most countries. A total of 16 of the top 29 occupations on the PES list were also among the top 30 occupations on the LFS list. The results of a range of different comparisons between the PES shortage and surplus occupations, and the shortage and surplus occupations produced by the LFS analyses, are outlined in the report. By utilising all of the findings, the report also outlines a methodology to assist EURES in identifying shortage and surplus occupations throughout the European labour market. This is presented in Figure 5.1 in chapter 5. It is recommended that higher level of occupational groupings (2-digit ISCO 08) are used to make direct comparisons between PES-identified shortages and surpluses by country and LFS-identified shortages and surpluses by country. This could potentially allow for further analysis to generate insights into the labour market imbalances (e.g. in terms of gender and regional variations) which is not possible at lower levels of aggregation. In addition, it is the recommendation of this report that a dialogue should begin with the PES on how to build on the evidence provided in this report by Increasing the number of PES providing data on shortages and surpluses Increasing the number of PES which provide an indication of the magnitude of shortages and surpluses Providing a mechanism for distinguishing between skill and labour shortages Increasing precision to identify job titles in short supply and avoiding incidence of an occupation having both surpluses and shortages (at job title level)

8 Bottlenecks Occupations INTRODUCTION The overall purpose of this brief report is to attempt to build a model that can identify occupations for which there is an excess demand (hereafter referred to as shortage occupations ) and occupations for which there is an excess supply (hereafter referred to as surplus occupations ) in the 28 EU countries, Iceland and Norway. It is very important for the effective management of the labour market that shortage and surplus occupations can be identified. If some occupations are in short supply, the economy will not achieve its optimum level of productivity; this may adversely affect the attractiveness of the country as a location and indeed result in some enterprises moving their businesses to other countries, however this issue could be addressed through the geographical mobility of workers. Furthermore, jobseekers can enhance their prospects of employment by seeking to become qualified in those skills and competences which are associated with occupations that are in short supply. It is important therefore that they have access to timely information on shortages in their local labour market. It is equally important that occupations which are in surplus can also be identified, but for contrasting reasons. Jobseekers need to know which occupations have an excess of supply, because it will be more difficult to find employment if they pursue a career in one of these occupations. One of the core functions of the European Public Employment Services (PES) is to assist jobseekers to find appropriate employment. It is therefore essential that the PES have a mechanism to identify which occupations are in short supply and which occupations are in surplus. This information will enable the PES to provide appropriate career guidance and relevant active labour market programmes to jobseekers. In 2015, the EU Commission commissioned a short report titled Bottleneck Vacancies The primary purpose of this report was to elicit information on which occupations were considered at the time to be shortage occupations by each of the PES in the European Union, Norway and Iceland. This report repeats this exercise for However, for this case, information is also sought on which occupations are considered by the PES to be in surplus. In addition, the report also explores the possibility of using analyses of the data from the 2015 European Labour Force Survey (LFS) to provide a useful additional source of information to the PES on which occupations were in short supply or were in surplus. There are a number of reasons why it is important to examine the potential of the LFS data to provide this additional source of information. One of the main sources of intelligence on shortages available to the PES are the vacancies that are notified to them by employers. However, these vacancies would comprise no more than 30% of the total vacancy market. Furthermore, this 30% is not representative of every type of occupation. In general, the European PES attract a relatively higher share of vacancies for the less skilled occupations and a lower share for the relatively higher skilled occupations, such as professional jobs. 2016

9 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 This does not mean that the PES are not capable of identifying skill needs among occupations which require higher qualifications. Many PES do not rely exclusively on their vacancy data when identifying skills needs; they also commission surveys to gather this information. Nevertheless, by using the LFS data to identify shortage occupations, we can ascertain the extent to which the mechanisms used by the PES to identify shortages cover all occupations. Moreover, the LFS provides comparable data through a joint methodology, giving a more accurate picture of the cross-country situation. It is also useful to explore the potential of the LFS to become an additional source of intelligence on shortage and surplus occupations because shortages identified either through vacancy data or though surveys may not be skill shortages. There are basically two types of shortages; shortages which arise primarily from skill deficits and shortages which arise because of high turnover rates. The difference between these two types of shortages is best illustrated by a simple example. There was a shortage of software analysts in many European countries in 2015 and some governments created schemes to attract software analysts from outside the European Economic Area (EEA) to their country. 1 This is an example of an occupation which is suffering from a skills deficit; there were not enough persons in the European labour force with the appropriate qualifications in software in 2015, and this was reflected in the fact that the European unemployment rate for this occupation was below 1%. There are also shortages reported for chefs in many European countries. However, the European unemployment rate for this occupation in 2015 was 6%; considerably above the rate which would be considered to be the full employment rate. In both cases, the occupation was associated with a relatively high number of vacancies. However, in the case of chefs, there was an adequate supply of jobseekers who had previously worked in the occupation to fill the vacancies. However, these jobseekers did not wish to continue to work in the occupation for a variety of reasons (e.g. anti-social hours, low pay, etc.). The policy options that are available to the European PES (besides engaging with employers to identify why vacancies are not filled) and indeed national policymakers and the European Commission may not be appropriate for different types of shortages. In general, it is more difficult to resolve skill shortages because they can only be permanently resolved by increasing the numbers in the labour force with the appropriate qualifications and competences, either through upskilling existing employees or increasing the provision of appropriate training and education programmes for jobseekers. In the short term, the shortage may be addressed by attracting qualified jobseekers from other countries, but the international competition for certain types of shortage occupations such as software developers is quite intense. Shortages created through a shortage of people willing to work in the occupation in question rather than skill deficits may be addressed through other means. Within the European community, wage levels and the cost of living vary greatly. As a result, the conditions of employment associated with the same occupations in different countries 1 The report on the skills needs of advanced ICT by the Irish Expert Group on Future Skills Needs provides excellent examples of the measures taken by a range of countries to attract jobseekers with ICT skills

10 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 may be perceived quite differently. Moreover, the different specialisation patterns and the differences in the economic cycle across the Member States can make the demand for labour in certain occupations vary greatly between the EU Member States. Occupations which are identified by the national PES as shortage occupations in some countries may be considered surplus to requirements in others. EURES (the European network of employment services) is the European tool for facilitating intra-eu mobility through its human network of European mobility specialists and counsellors at national, regional and local level, (EURES advisers and assistants (more relevant than advisers in Italy, Poland and Spain) and through the EURES portal. Although most of the staff of the EURES network are based in PES, EURES remit includes other labour market actors such as private employment agencies and social partners. The core business of EURES is the matching of skills and vacancies at European level. In order to better care for the needs of the European labour market and to increase the performance of EURES, a sound knowledge base of labour shortages and surpluses in the EU is critical. This is acknowledged in the EURES Regulation. In addition, this knowledge will support cooperation between Member States including finding solutions at European level when several countries have similar shortages and surpluses. Armed with such information, it is possible for EURES National Coordination Offices to facilitate through the programming cycle the engagement of PES with one another with a view to encouraging mobility between persons working in occupations which are considered shortage occupations and surplus occupations in different countries to resolve mismatches. To facilitate the matching of shortage and surplus occupations by EURES, the geographic distribution of the top twenty occupations which are identified as shortage and surplus occupations by the PES is presented. The distribution shows the potential which each PES has to alleviate the shortages it has identified in its labour market through cooperating with PES in neighbouring countries who have surplus labour in some of the shortage occupations. While there are challenges in creating an effective cross country matching process, the results of the analyses in this report suggest that there is considerable potential for matching surplus occupations in some countries with shortage occupations in others. By identifying the geographic distribution of these overlapping occupations, it will be possible for the EURES network to begin a dialogue between the relevant PES with a view to resolving the identified shortages through initiatives designed to increase labour mobility of surplus occupations to areas where the occupation is identified as a shortage. The purpose of this report is to provide insights into which occupations are shortage and surplus occupations and in which countries/regions according to the analyses of the PES and the LFS data. In attempting to fulfil this objective, a number of challenges were encountered which illustrate both the strengths and weaknesses of the PES data and the LFS data as sources of intelligence on labour market imbalances. Drawing on the strengths of each data source, the report concludes by presenting a method for directly comparing shortage and surplus occupations identified by analyses of PES and LFS data and an indicator for validating the results. 10

11 Bottleneck Occupations ANALYSIS OF SHORTAGES/SURPLUSES USING PES DATA MAIN FINDINGS 2.1 Introduction This chapter contains a detailed analysis of the data on shortage and surplus occupations submitted by 26 PES. The data is analysed from a number of perspectives, including the distribution of shortages and surpluses across the PES and their relative magnitude. The PES were requested to identify a minimum of 20 shortage occupations. However, a number of PES identified much more than 20 shortage occupations (see Annex 1 on methodology). 2.2 Analysis of shortage occupations Most of the PES submitted their shortage and surplus occupations in 4-digit codes. These had to be subsequently aggregated to 3-digit codes to facilitate a comparison with the shortage and surplus occupations identified by the analyses of the LFS data. Table 2.1 Examples of the composition of the top seven 3-digit shortage occupations in terms of four digit occupations Occupation Software and applications developers Systems analysts Software developer Web and multimedia developer Application programmers Software and application developers nec 2 Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Insurance representatives Commercial sales representatives Buyers Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers Blacksmiths, hammersmiths and forging press workers Toolmakers and related workers Metal working, machine tool setters and operators Metal polishers, wheel grinders, and tool sharpeners Medical doctors Generalist medical practitioner Specialist medical practitioner Occupation Building frame and related workers House builders Bricklayers and related workers Concrete placers, concrete finishers and related workers Carpenters and joiners Building frame and related workers nec Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders Sheet metal workers Structural metal preparers and erectors Welders and flamecutters Metal moulders and core makers Electrical equipment installers and repairers Building and related electricians Electrical mechanics and fitters Electrical installers and repairers Each 3-digit occupation code is made up of a number of distinct more detailed occupations at the 4-digit code level. Examples taken from the seven shortage occupations identified by the most PES in 2016 are shown in Table 2.1. Thus, the occupation doctor is a 3-digit code, but it includes two occupations; specialists and general doctors at the 4-digit code level. Therefore, when the 4-digit occupations submitted by the PES are reclassified into 3-digit codes to enable comparison with the LFS, it is possible in some cases that the 3-digit code contained more than one 2 NEC not elsewhere classified

12 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 occupation identified by a PES as a shortage occupation (e.g. in the case of doctors; specialist and general doctors). The implication of the aggregation of the 4-digit code into 3-digit codes for the comparison between PES and LFS data is discussed in detail in chapter 4 of the report. Table 2.2 Top occupations classified as shortages by most PES in 2015 and 2016 Occupation (3-digit codes) No. of PES reporting shortage in current report No. of PES reporting shortage in Bottleneck Vacancies 2015 Software and applications developers 21 ( ) Software and applications developers 18 Sales and purchasing agents and brokers 17 ( ) Medical doctors 17 Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related 16 ( ) Sheet and structural metal workers, 17 trades workers moulders and welders Building frame and related trades workers 16 ( ) Engineering technicians 16 Medical doctors 16 ( ) Building frame and related trades workers 16 Sheet and structural metal workers, 16 ( ) Building finishers and related trades 15 moulders and welders workers Electrical equipment installers and 15 ( ) Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades 15 repairers workers Heavy truck and bus drivers 14 ( ) Heavy truck and bus drivers 15 Building finishers and related trades 13 ( ) Sales and purchasing agents and brokers 14 workers Engineering professionals 13 ( ) Machinery mechanics and repairers 14 Nursing and midwifery professionals 13 ( ) Electrical equipment installers and repairers 14 Cooks 12 ( ) Engineering professional 13 Machinery mechanics and repairers 12 ( ) Cooks 12 Physical and engineering science 12 ( ) Personal care workers in health services 12 technicians Shop salespersons 12 ( ) Mobile plant operators 12 Database and network professionals 10 ( ) Other health professionals 11 Food processing and related trades workers Other health professionals Personal care workers in health services 10 ( ) Shop sales persons ( ) 10 ( ) The source for the identification of shortages by the PES is usually their own data, taken either from surveys they conduct or from their own administrative databases. 3 This might give rise to a concern that the PES would not be able to identify shortages in professional occupations. However, as shown in Table 2.2 this does not seem to be a significant problem, and 6 of the top 19 most widespread reported shortages were in the professional occupations. Table 2.2 shows the top shortage occupations reported by the most PES in the 2015 and 2016 reports. A total of 26 PES 4 submitted data on shortage occupations, which is three more than the number that submitted such data in There was a high degree of similarity between the results from the two reports in respect of the most widespread shortages reported by the PES. Sixteen of the top 17 shortage occupations identified by the PES last year were all identified again by the PES this year in their list of the top 19 shortage occupations. 3 The 2015 Report on Bottleneck Vacancies includes details on the data sources used. 4 See Annex 1 for the list of the 26 PES who submitted data on shortage occupations and surplus occupations 12

13 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 However, what is of particular interest is the extent to which the ranking of the top occupations differed between the two years. The arrows in Table 2.1 show that while the top occupation of software and applications developers was the top occupation in both years, the next three occupations were identified by more PES this year. In all of the top 19 occupations identified as shortages by the most PES, the rankings of nine improved, the rankings of seven declined and the ranking of three occupations remained the same. The PES were also requested to indicate the magnitude of shortages and surpluses. A total of 13 PES reported on the magnitude of shortages. The occupations classified as having a high magnitude of shortages by the most PES are shown in Table 2.3. Three sectors dominate the list: the healthcare and the construction sectors have four occupations each, and the ICT sector has three occupations. Together, they account for 42% of the twenty-six occupations classified by the most PES as having significant shortages. Table 2.3 Top occupations classified as having significant shortages Occupation (3-digit codes) Number of PES stating high magnitude of shortage 5 Chemical and photographic products plant and machine operators Number of PES stating high magnitude of shortage 2 Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders Personal care workers in health services 4 Child care workers, teachers aides 2 Assemblers 3 Cooks 2 Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers 3 Database and network professionals 2 Building frame and related trades workers 3 Food preparation assistants 2 Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers 3 Heavy truck and bus drivers 2 Garment and related trades workers 3 ICT operations and user support 2 technicians Nursing and midwifery professionals 3 Medical doctors 2 Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades 3 Mining and construction labourers 2 workers Software and applications developers and analysts 3 Other health associate professionals 2 Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers 2 Primary school and early childhood 2 teachers Building and housekeeping supervisors 2 Sales and purchasing agents 2 Building finishers and related trades workers 2 Social and religious professionals 2 The list also includes four occupations from the elementary major group of occupations two of which are agricultural and construction labourers, and the others are domestic hotel and office cleaners and helpers and food preparation assistants. As already noted in the introduction, occupations which have a relatively low level of skills may qualify as shortage occupations if there are not a sufficient number of jobseekers willing to work in the occupations. 2.3 Analysis of surplus occupations The PES were also requested to identify occupations for which there was an excess supply, and thirteen did so. As stated in the introduction, an occupation is considered to be a surplus occupation if there are more jobseekers qualified to work in the occupation

14 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 than is required. The surplus occupations identified by the most PES are shown in Table 2.4. Table 2.4 Top occupations classified as surplus occupations by the most PES 5 Occupation Number of PES reporting this occupation as surplus Occupation Number of PES reporting this occupation as surplus General office clerks 10 Legal professions 5 Architects, planners, surveyors and designers 7 Other teaching professions 5 Client information workers 7 Artistic, cultural and culinary workers 5 Shop salespersons 7 Legal, social and religious 5 Social and religious professionals 7 Tellers and money collectors 5 Building frame and related trades workers 6 Painters and building structure cleaners Food preparation assistants 6 Printing trades 5 Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers 6 Cashiers and ticket sales 5 Mining and construction labourers 6 Child care workers and teacher aides Personal care workers in health services 6 Waiters and bartenders 5 Protective services workers 6 Agricultural, fishing and forestry labours 5 Sales, marketing and public relations professionals 6 Domestic, hotel and office cleaners 5 Secretaries (general) 6 Manufacturing labourers 5 Creative and performing artists 5 Transport and storage labourers 5 Market gardeners and crop growers An excess supply of jobseekers is more likely to occur in the case of occupations which are not associated with a high level of qualifications or technical skills. This is because first-time jobseekers, students and jobseekers with a variety of different work experiences can access employment in these occupations. A number of the occupations listed in Table 2.4 exhibit these characteristics. Jobseekers from a wide range of backgrounds and qualifications may find jobs as shop salespersons, general office clerks, general secretaries, cashiers and ticket sellers, domestic, hotel and office cleaners and food preparation assistants. However, a number of professional occupations were also identified as surplus occupations by the PES. All 13 PES who identified surplus occupations identified at least one occupation from the professional group. The PES in Finland, Le Forem (Belgium) and Estonia identified 16, 17 and 13 different professional occupations respectively as being in surplus. It is possible that an impression that some professional occupations are surplus occupations is created through an analysis of the PES administrative data. This is because, as already noted, the PES in general do not attract a high share of vacancies in high skill occupations. Therefore, if a significant number of jobseekers who previously worked in professional occupations are registered with the PES, the volume of registered jobseekers may be greater than the volume of vacancies notified to the PES for persons with experience working in professional occupations. 5 The PES were not asked to identify surplus occupations in last year s report and consequently a comparison of surpluses from the two reports is not possible. 14

15 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 However, this is not the only reason why some PES identified professional occupations as surplus occupations. The PES in Denmark for example, which used the Labour Balance Survey as the source for its data on shortages and surpluses identified three professional occupations as being surplus occupations, including architects, planners, designers and surveyors. It may be the case that at least one of the occupations in this 3-digit group of occupations was surplus to requirements in Denmark in It is notable that six other PES mainly in Northern Europe also identified this group of occupations as surplus to requirements. This issue is discussed further in chapter 5. A total of nine PES identified occupations as having surpluses of high magnitude, and these are shown in Table 2.5. The architects, planners, surveyors and designers are again included, as well as legal professionals and life science professionals. Table 2.5 Top occupations classified as having significant surpluses Occupation Number of PES stating high magnitude of surplus Occupation Number of PES stating high magnitude of surplus General office clerks 4 Architects, planners, surveyors and designers Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers 3 Legal professionals 2 Client information workers 3 Life science professionals 2 Shop salespersons 3 Manufacturing labourers 2 Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Building and housekeeping supervisors Building frame and related trades workers Child care workers and teachers' aides Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers 2 Market gardeners and crop growers 2 Other elementary workers 2 2 Personal care workers in health services 2 Protective services workers 2 2 Secretaries (general) 2 Food preparation assistants 2 Social and religious professionals Analysis of geographic distribution of shortage and surplus occupations The analysis in Table 2.6 provides an insight into the geographical distribution of shortage and surplus occupations and their magnitude. It shows that the top 19 shortage occupations, each of which were identified by at least ten different PES, have a wide geographic distribution. There is no obvious geographic clustering of shortage occupations; Member States in the south of Europe such as Italy, Portugal, Croatia and Cyprus figure prominently as do the North European Member States. Similarly, there is no obvious geographic concentration of occupations which have shortages of high magnitude. The analysis indicates that many of the shortages identified by the PES are widespread and are not specific to any particular region within the Community. One of the striking features of Table 2.6 is the number of Member States from Central and Eastern Europe who are reporting shortage occupations. They are overrepresented in many of the shortage occupations, such as cooks, doctors, blacksmiths and toolmakers

16 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 and so forth. This finding is consistent with the findings of other research (e.g. Manpower) which found higher shortages reported in emerging economies. Table 2.6 also shows the geographic distribution of shortage occupations which were identified by at least six different PES. There were thirteen such shortage occupations. A total of three of these occupations; shop salespersons ; building frame and related trades and personal care workers in the health services were also identified by many PES as a shortage occupation. However, this does not necessarily mean that the surplus workers in these occupations in one part of the Community could be used to relieve the shortages experienced in these occupations elsewhere in the Community. As shown in Table 2.1, these occupations which are known as 3digit occupations - are themselves made up of a number of individual job-titles. It may be the case therefore that while these three group of occupations appear to have the potential to match shortages with surpluses, the jobtitles which comprise these occupation groups may not be matched. The only way to determine the matching potential of the shortage and surplus occupations identified by the PES is to compare shortage and surplus occupations at the highest level of granularity that is at the level of individual job-titles. The results of this analysis is shown in Table Analysis of overlapping shortage and surplus occupations The geographic distribution of individual job-titles which are associated with both shortages and surpluses identified by the PES is shown in Table 2.7. A total of 20 jobtitles are shown; the job-totals are chosen on the basis that they were identified as being in surplus by at least four different PES. Some of the job-titles are reported as being in shortage and in surplus by the same PES. For example, shop assistants in Denmark, hairdressers in Hungary and waiters in Norway. As already noted, many of the PES base their identification of shortage occupations on the results of enterprise based surveys. This approach has merit and it is one of the reasons why the PES list of shortages includes occupations from all major groups including professional occupations. However, for obvious reasons, enterprise based surveys will not identify any surplus occupations. Many PES such as for example Norway, use administrative data for this purpose, and the use of different sources by the PES is the reason why some occupations are identified by the same PES as being both a shortage and a surplus occupation. Nevertheless, most of the job-titles listed in Table 2.7 by each PES are identified as either a shortage or a surplus and not as both. The findings therefore suggest that there is considerable potential to match shortage occupations in one part of the Union with surplus occupations in another part. For example, the surplus of shop sales assistants in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary and the Netherlands could - through enhanced geographic mobility - contribute to alleviating the shortages identified in this occupation in Cyprus, Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Slovenia and Slovakia. 16

17 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table 2.6 The geographical distribution of shortage and surplus occupations (highlighted countries reporting high magnitude) Shortage occupation Reporting PES Surplus occupation Reporting PES Software and applications developers and analysts BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, CY, DE, DK, EE FR, HR IE, IS, IT, LT, LU, LV, NL, NO, PL, SI, SK, UK General office clerks BE Le Forem, BG, DK, EE, FR, HU, IS, NL, NO, SK Sales and purchasing agents and brokers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE, VDAB, DK, EE, FI, FR, HU, IE IT, LT, NL, PL, PT, SI, SK, UK Architects, planners, surveyors BE Le Forem, CY, DK, EE, FI, HU, SK Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, BG, CY, CZ, EE, FR, HR IE, IS, IT, LT, NL, PT, SI, SK, Client information workers BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI, HU, NL, SK Building frame and related trades workers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, DE, DK, EE, FI, HR, HU, IE, IS, LT, LV, NO, PT, SI Shop salespersons BE Le Forem, BG, DK, EE, HU, NL, NO Medical doctors BE Le Forem, BG, CY, DE, EE, FI, FR, HR IE, IS, LT, LV, NL, NO, SI, UK Social and religious professionals BE Le Forem, BG, EE, FI, HU, IS, NL Sheet metal workers, moulders and welders BE Le Forem, BG, CY, CZ, DE, EE, FR, HR IE, IS, LT, LV, NL, NO, SI, UK Building frame and related trades BE Le Forem, CY, EE, HU, NO, PL Electrical equipment installers and repairers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, BG, DE, DK, EE, FR, IS, LT, NL, NO, PT, SI, UK Food preparation assistants BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI HU, NO Heavy truck and bus drivers BE Actiris BE VDAB, BG, CZ, DK, EE, HR, IE, IS, IT, LT, LV, NO, SI Hairdressers, beauticians BE Le Forem, BG, EE, FI, FR, HU Building finishers and related trades workers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, DE, DK, EE, FI, FR, HU, LT, NL, NO, SI Mining/construction labourers BE Le Forem, BG, CY, EE, FI, NO Engineering professionals (excl. electrotechnology) BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BG, DE, EE, HR, IE, IT, LU, NL, NO, SI, UK Personal care workers in health BE Le Forem, BG, DK, FR, NL, NO Nursing and midwifery professionals BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, BG, DK, FI, IE, IS, LT, NL, NO, SK, UK Protective services workers BE Le Forem, BG, EE, FR, HU, PL Cooks BE Le Forem, BG, CY, DK, IS, IT, LT, LV, NO, PT, SI, SK Sales, marketing and PR BE Le Forem, BG, DK, EE, FI, IS Machinery mechanics and repairers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, DK, EE, FR, LV, NL, NO, SI, SK, UK Secretaries (general) BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI, NL, SK Physical and engineering science technicians Shop salespersons Database and network professionals Food processing and related trades workers BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, DE, EE, FR, IE, IS, NL, NO, SI, SK BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, CY, DK, EE, FR, IT, LT, LV, NO, SI, SK BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, EE, IS, LT, LU NL, PL, SK BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB, CY, EE, FR, HU, LT, NO, SI Other health professionals BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, BE VDAB CY EE, FI, FR, IE NL SI UK Personal care workers in health services BE VDAB CY, DK, EE HU, IT NL, NO, SI, SK, Note: table includes only countries that indicated magnitude of shortage and surplus; other countries may also have high magnitude of shortages and surpluses, however, they did not report them here

18 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table 2.7 Analyses of overlapping shortage and surplus occupations ISCO 4-digit title No of PES Reporting shortages No of PES Reporting surpluses General office clerks 2 HU, NO 10 BE Le Forem, BG, DK, EE, FR, HU Shop sales assistants 10 BE Actiris, BE Le Forem, CY, DK, FR, LT, LV, NO, SL, SK 7 BE Le Forem, BG, DK, EE, HU, NL Secretaries (general) 1 Cyprus 6 BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI, NL, SK Graphic and multimedia designers 1 UK 5 BE Le Forem, EE, FI, HU, SK Advertising and marketing prof. 2 LT, LV 5 BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI, IS Waiters 8 BE Actiris, BG, CY, DK, IS, NO, SL, SK 5 BE Le Forem, EE, HU, NL, NO Hairdressers 5 BE Actiris, HU, NO, PO, UK 5 BE Le Forem, BG, FR, HU, EE Beauticians and related workers 1 BE Actiris 5 BE Le Forem, BG, EE, FI, HU Child care workers 3 BE Actiris, HU, SK 5 BE Le Forem, DK, HU, NL, NO Health care assistants 7 CY, DK, EE, HU, NO, SL, SK 5 BE Le Forem, BG, DK, NL, NO Printers 2 FR, SL 5 BE Le Forem, FI, IS, NL, EE Cleaners in offices, hotels 7 CY, DK, EE, HU, IS, NO, SL 5 BE Le Forem, DK, HU, NL, NO Civil engineering labourers 4 BE Le Forem, DE, HU, SL 5 BE Le Forem, BG, CY, EE, NO Kitchen helpers 3 CY, HU, SK 5 BE Le Forem, DK, FI, HU, NO Early childhood educators 4 FI, HR, LV, NO 4 BE Le Forem, CY, EE, HU Lawyers 1 LU 4 BE Le Forem, EE, IS, SK Bank tellers and related clerks 2 LU, SK 4 BE Le Forem, EE, FI, IS Cashiers and ticket clerks 1 DK 4 BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FR Building construction labourers 3 HU, IS, LT 4 BE Le Forem, CY, EE, FI Freight handlers 2 IS, SL 4 BE Le Forem, DK, EE, FI

19 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Similarly, the reported shortage of hairdressers in Norway, Poland and the UK in 2015 could have been alleviated by attracting hairdressers from countries where the PES have reported that they were in surplus such as France, Estonia and Bulgaria. The benefit of this type of analyses is that it identifies occupations where there may be a potential for matching surpluses with shortages across Member States. As such, this type of analyses can form the basis for the beginning of a dialogue between PES for their mutual benefit. The success of such cooperation will depend on a number of factors, in particular the appropriateness of the data sources used to identify surplus occupations. At the very least, this type of analysis identifies for each PES which neighbouring PES may be in a position to assist them in resolving the shortages in their labour market. A regular and formal exchange of data between PES on both shortage and surplus occupations therefore should be initiated by EURES, in line with Article 30 of the EURES Regulation, as such a process could contribute to alleviating skill imbalances in the European labour market. This initiative should include the provision of expert support to the PES on how to reliably identify the magnitude of shortages and surpluses. Figure 2.1 shows the number of PES reporting shortages by the estimated magnitude. The number of PES is greater than the number that reported on the magnitude of shortages because the PES reported on 4-digit job titles and each of these job titles could have different magnitudes of shortages (e.g. if specialised and general doctors had a different magnitude of shortage, the 3-digit occupation of doctor which is made up of these two job titles, would have two different levels of magnitude and the PES which identified doctors as a shortage occupation would appear twice; this result also occurs for surplus occupations). Two occupational groups stand out: craft workers and professionals. Shortages in craft occupations were reported by the most PES and these also included the highest share of PES reporting shortages of high magnitude. Shortages in the professional group of occupations were the second most reported and also contained the second highest share of reported shortages of high magnitude. The professional group of occupations were also reported by the most PES as having surplus occupations, and they also had the highest share of PES reporting surpluses of high magnitude (Figure 2.2). While management occupations made up 7% of all reported shortages, none of the shortages were considered to be of high magnitude. In the case of surpluses, all PES that reported management occupations described the surplus as low. In Annex 1 (Table A6), there are detailed figures on the occupational distribution of shortages and surpluses, including the lists of most frequently identified occupations in short supply and in surplus are presented, as well as the lists of shortage and surplus occupations identified by most PES (Tables A7-A10)

20 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Figure 2.1 Number of PES reporting shortages by estimated shortage magnitude All occupations Elementary occupations Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Craft and related trades workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Service and sales workers Clerical support workers Technicians and associate professionals Professionals Managers High Medium Low Figure 2.2 Number of PES reporting surpluses by estimated surplus magnitude All occupations Elementary occupations Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Craft and related trades workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Service and sales workers Clerical support workers Technicians and associate professionals Professionals Managers High Medium Low 2.5 Conclusions The shortages identified by the PES include many occupations which have been identified in other studies as being in short supply, such as doctors, nurses, software analysts, toolmakers, construction craft workers and truck drivers. While the list of shortages mentioned by the most PES in this report are almost identical to the list in last year s report, their ranking in terms of the number of PES which have identified the occupations as shortage occupations has changed

21 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 There were a few occupations included in the list of shortage occupations identified by the most PES, such as shop salespersons which are associated with relatively low skills. The PES are including in their lists of shortage occupations two types of shortages; shortages which arise from relatively high turnover levels and are associated with occupations requiring relatively low skill levels, and shortages which reflect skill deficits and are associated with occupations requiring relatively high skill levels. It is important that the PES is able to distinguish between these two sources of shortages in their labour market. Unlike shortages that arise from skill deficits, shortages which reflect relatively high turnover levels may not respond to an increase in training provision unless the retention issues which give rise to the shortages are successfully addressed. A considerable number of occupations which were identified by some PES as shortage occupations were identified by other PES as surplus occupations. This creates the possibility for cooperative matching exercises through the EURES network. Vacancies in occupations which are identified by PES as shortages could be filled by jobseekers with experience working in those occupations from countries where the PES identified the occupation as a surplus occupation. This issue is discussed further in chapter

22 Bottlenecks Occupations ANALYSIS OF SHORTAGES AND SURPLUSES USING LFS DATA MAIN FINDINGS 3.2 Introduction In this chapter, three LFS shortage indicators are developed and applied to employment data in the 2015 Labour Survey to identify occupations with significant shortages and occupations with some shortages at the European and the individual country level (see Annex 2 on methodology). An indicator on surplus occupations is also developed and applied to the LFS data to identify surplus occupations. Both the employment and unemployment data which is used to develop the shortage and surplus indicators are based on three digit ISCO-08 codes. 3.3 The development of the LFS shortage and surplus indicators The indicators are based on the assumption that an employer who requires workers in occupations which are experiencing shortages will be engaged in one or more of the following recruitment strategies: Strategy 1: Recruit lower qualified workers - The employer experiencing difficulties in recruiting persons with the appropriate qualifications may be forced to recruit workers who do not possess the appropriate qualifications. Strategy 2: Recruit qualified workers from abroad - This recruitment strategy is particularly relevant in the case of shortage occupations where the appropriate qualification is mandatory and, consequently, where the first strategy is not available to the employer. Strategy 3: More frequent recruitment of workers Tightness in the labour market may result in poaching, higher turnover of labour and more frequent hires. A fourth indicator based on changes in remuneration for new recruits was also considered, but it was decided not to use it for three reasons. Firstly, the LFS data on salaries is only available within certain ranges and it is not able to identify small discreet changes in salary. Secondly, the LFS data classified by ISCO-08 is only available from 2013 onwards, and consequently the time series in which to explore changes in remuneration is very short. Finally, levels of remuneration are strongly influenced by the degree of regulation in the labour market; they are not necessarily an indicator of labour market demand. Indicator 1 - Recruiting lower qualified workers: This indicator measures the share of those in each occupation who are underqualified for working in that occupation; the term underqualified in this context means that the qualification is less than the typical qualification of those who are working in the major group of occupations to which the

23 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 specific occupation belongs 6. If the share of such underqualified workers is above the average share for the relevant major group, the occupation is classified as a shortage occupation by indicator 1. Indicator 2 - Recruiting workers from abroad: This indicator measures the share of persons working in each occupation who are not nationals of the reporting country in the total employment of that occupation. If this share is above the average share for all occupations, the occupation is classified as a shortage occupation by indicator 2. Indicator 3 - More frequent recruitment of workers: This indicator measures the hiring rate for each occupation (the share of persons whose employment commenced in the preceding 12 months in the total employment). If this rate is above the average hiring rate for all occupations, the occupation is classified as a shortage occupation by indicator 3. The occupations are ranked on the basis of the number of indicators which have identified the occupation as being in short supply. Thus, occupations which have been identified by all three indicators are classified as occupations which had significant shortages in Occupations which are classified as shortage occupations by two indicators are classified as occupations which had some shortages. Occupations which have been either identified by only one indicator or not identified by any indicator are considered to have had sufficient workers in 2015 to satisfy the recruitment demand. The reason why shortages must conform to at least two of the indicators is to avoid classifying occupations as shortages because they have a high turnover rate (i.e. indicator 3) or because they attract a relatively high share of foreign students (i.e. indicator 2). The exception is so-called mandatory occupations where a specific qualification is required by law to work in the occupation in question (e.g. medical doctor). By definition, these occupations will not be identified by indicator 1 as being in short supply because those with lower qualifications cannot work in them. Therefore, these occupations are considered to have had significant shortages in 2015 if they have been identified by two indicators, and some shortages if they have been identified by one indicator. 7 The three shortage indicators were applied to employment in six of the 10 major groups of occupations. The elementary group of occupations could not be used because indicator 1 is not relevant as a minimum level of education is not required. As these occupations are also associated with relatively high turnover rates, the application of the two remaining indicators to elementary occupations produced a list of shortages which were almost exclusively based on high turnover rates rather than skill deficits. Nevertheless, over 80% of total employment in the 2015 Labour Force Survey was analysed by the three indicators (see Annex 2 for details of the structure of the dataset). 6 In the case of indicator 1, the relevant benchmark share is the average share of the relevant major group because education levels differ in each major group. For indicators 2 and 3, it is the average of all occupations. 7 In this study, mandatory occupations are defined as occupations where 90% or more of those employed have the appropriate qualification level. There were 9 such 3-digit occupations in 2015 in the EU28/Iceland/Norway labour market all in the professional group. Unfortunately, the data is not sufficiently reliable to identify mandatory occupations for each individual country this would require an analysis of the education qualifications of persons working in each occupation in each country, and many of the results would be unreliable

24 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 An indicator was also developed to identify occupations which were associated with surpluses in The most obvious indication that the numbers in the labour force with experience or qualifications in a particular occupation are above the market requirements is if most of those who worked in the occupation immediately prior to becoming unemployed in 2015 experienced difficulties finding a job. The LFS indicator therefore classifies an occupation as a surplus occupation in 2015 if most of those who became unemployed in 2015, having worked in the occupation, were unable to find a job within 6 months of actively seeking employment. Unfortunately, the numbers of persons who were unemployed for more than 6 months in many occupations, particularly in those countries which had a rather small labour force in 2015, were too low to be reliable. To generate sufficiently large numbers, the analyses of surplus occupations had to be conducted on unemployment across the EU28/Norway/Iceland rather than on unemployment in individual countries. A total of three separate indicators were applied to a total of 93 occupations to identify if they were in shortage in A further four occupations were excluded when the indicators were created due to their small values. 3.4 Analysis of shortages at European level The three LFS shortage indicators were applied first to total employment at European level (EU28/Iceland/Norway). The purpose of aggregating employment from every country was to maximise the number of occupations which could be accurately analysed by the three LFS indicators. The results for each ISCO major group of occupations are outlined below. Professional occupations In the professional group, the analysis focused on a total of 24 occupations (from a possible total of 27 occupations) employing 42 million in A total of two of the occupations identified by indicator 1 were also identified as shortage occupations by indicator 2 and indicator 3 and consequently qualified as occupations with significant shortages. These are software and applications developers and analysts and other teaching professions. As the latter is a composite of a number of occupations (e.g. ICT instructors, etc.), it is possible that these significant shortages refer exclusively to specific job titles, not the overall occupation. There were seven other professional occupations which were classified as having some shortages. Four of these occupations required very high qualifications and consequently were classified as mandatory occupations. These are doctors, life science professionals, physical science professionals and mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries. Interestingly, in all cases, these occupations qualified as shortage occupations because of the above average recruiting of foreign nationals by employers in Two occupations, traditional and paramedical practitioners and complementary medicine were excluded because there was less than 10,000 employed in them. A third occupation, creative and performing artists was excluded because a tertiary level of qualification is not required to work in it

25 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 The other three professional occupations which were classified as having some shortages in 2015 are architects designers, planners and surveyors, sales marketing and public relations and authors, journalists and linguists. All three occupations are a composite of a number of more specific occupations. In the case of the first two, the specific occupations relate to construction and sales activities. As discussed later, both construction and sales-related non-professional occupations are disproportionally represented in the list of shortage occupations; consequently, it is not surprising that these occupations would also be represented in the professional category. Associate professionals and technicians In the ISCO group of occupations called associate professional and technical, a total of 20 occupations were analysed employing 35.5 million persons in Surprisingly, there were no occupations classified as having significant shortages. However, there were five occupations which were classified as having some shortages. As expected, a software-related occupation, information and communication technicians is identified, but the other four occupations are more surprising. These are sports and fitness workers, business services agents, legal, social and religious and artistic, cultural and culinary technicians. The inclusion of the latter may reflect the fact that, as discussed later, there was a widespread labour shortage of cooks in It is surprising that neither nurses nor midwives were included in either the professionals or associate professionals shortage lists. However, in the case of the latter, European employers did recruit an above average share of nurses and midwives from other countries in 2015, but this occupation was not classified as a shortage by either of the other two indicators, and consequently does not make the final list of shortages. 9 Clerical support workers There were 21.5 million persons working in eight occupations in this group of occupations in There were no clerical occupations classified by the LFS indicators as occupations with significant shortages, and only two occupations were classified as having some shortages in They are client information workers and clerical support workers. It seems plausible that positions in customer support roles, particularly those requiring proficiency in a number of languages, were in short supply in Sales and service workers A total of 13 occupations 10 were analysed in this group of occupations employing a total of 38 million in A total of four occupations, waiters and bartenders, childcare workers and teachers aides, other sales workers and travel attendants, conductors and guides 11 were identified by all three indicators and thus were classified as having significant shortages. 9 However, associate professional nurses and midwives missed inclusion by a single percentage point. 10 The occupation street and market sellers was excluded as most of them are self-employed and a specific qualification is not required to work in the occupation. 11 The inclusion of this occupation highlights one of the anomalies which can occur when the LFS indicators are applied to total employment across the EU28/Norway/Iceland. The occupation; travel attendants, conductors and guides was not identified as a shortage occupation in any country, but emerged as a significant shortage when employment in each country was aggregated

26 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Five other occupations, cashier and ticket sales, personal care workers in the health services, cooks, hairdressers and beauticians and other personal services workers were classified as having some shortages. Shortages of both cooks and personal care workers in the health services were reflected in employers recruiting above average numbers of workers from abroad. Craft workers There were roughly 26 million persons employed in 14 craft occupations in A total of three occupations, building frame and related trades workers, food processing and related trades workers and painters, building structure cleaners and related trades, were identified as having shortages by all three indicators and consequently were classified as occupations with significant shortages in The other remaining major construction trade building finishers and related trades workers together with other craft workers and garment and related trades workers were identified by two LFS indicators and consequently were classified as occupations with some shortages in Machinery and operative occupations In this occupational group, a total of 14 occupations (employing 16 million persons in 2015) were analysed. A total of three occupations, food and related products machine operators, car, van and motor cycle drivers and mobile plant operators, were classified as shortage occupations by all three indicators and are therefore classified as occupations with significant shortages in Two other occupations, stationary plant and machine operatives and textile, fur and leather products machine operatives were classified as occupations with some shortages in A summary of the analyses of the labour force data by the three shortage indicators, which identified a total of 36 shortage occupations in 2015, is shown in Table 3.1. A total of 12 of these occupations were classified as having significant shortages, while the other 24 were classified as occupations with some shortages. The list of 36 occupations is dominated by construction-related occupations (6), but occupations in sales (3), hospitality (3), personal care (3), software (2) and food manufacture (2) are also prominent. It is also notable that the other categories from the major occupation groups are all included; thus other clerical support, other sales workers, other personal services workers, other craft workers and stationary plant and other machine operatives are all on the shortages list 12. This suggests that there are a significant number of shortage occupations which are not explicitly described in the official ISCO-08 nomenclature, but which are being captured by the LFS indicators. This is entirely plausible: firstly, the ISCO-08 nomenclature at 3-digit level aggregates a variety of job titles visible at 4-digit level; secondly, the classification has not been updated for several years, while the 12 All of the major group other categories are included as there is no category called other professional workers or other associate professional and technical workers

27 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 occupational structure of employment in Europe is continuously changing due to the emergence of new technology and the disappearance of automated and obsolete occupations. Table 3.1 Occupations with significant shortages and occupations with some shortages from the analyses of total employment across EU28/Iceland/Norway Significant Shortages Some shortages Other teaching professions Physical earth science professionals Software and application developers and analysts Life science professionals Travel attendants, conductors and guides Medical doctors Waiters and bartenders Sales, marketing and public relations Other sales workers Architects planners surveyors and designers Child care workers and teachers aids Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries Building frame and related trade workers Authors, journalists and linguists Painters, building structure cleaners Sports and fitness workers Food processing and related trade workers Artistic, cultural and culinary technicians Food and related products and machine operators Legal, social and religious associate professionals Car, van and motor cycle drivers Mobile plant operatives Information and communication technicians Business services agents Client information workers Other clerical support Cashier and ticket sales Cooks Hairdressers and beauticians Personal care workers in health services Other personal services Building finishers and related trades Other craft and related trades Garment and related trades Other stationary plant and machine operators Textile, fur and leather products machine operatives 3.4 The identification of some shortages by country Naturally, when disaggregated to generate the shortage indicators, employment levels for individual countries were much lower than those observed at the European level, leading to issues with statistical reliability. Consequently, the indicators could only be applied to 65 occupations rather than the previous 93. Furthermore, while the indicators were applied to the 24 countries for which PES data on shortages was available, the indicators were not able to identify any shortages in six of these countries because the values were too small. The 30 shortage occupations which were identified in the most countries by the LFS indicators are shown in Table 3.2. The restricted number of occupations which could be analysed by the three shortage indicators is reflected in the relatively low number of countries where shortage occupations were identified. Thus, only 24 shortage occupations were identified in four countries or more, and the figure declines to

28 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 shortage occupations when the list is confined to six or more countries, and only two occupations are identified when the list of shortages is restricted to 10 or more countries. In sharp contrast, all 19 occupations in the list of shortage occupations mentioned by the most PES (Table 2.2) were identified as shortage occupations by at least 10 different PES. This illustrates the greater robustness of administrative data over sample data, especially at relatively high levels of granularity. Table 3.2 Top 30 occupations with some shortages (LFS indicators) Occupation Number of Number of countries countries Shop salespersons 12 Engineering professionals 5 Waiters and bartenders 11 Food processing and related trades 4 workers Building frame and related trade workers 9 University and higher education 5 teachers Childcare workers and teachers aides 8 Building and housekeeping 4 supervisors Cooks 7 Personal care in health services 4 Artistic, cultural and culinary technicians 7 Building finishers and related trades 4 workers Car, van and motor cycle drivers 7 Heavy truck and bus drivers 4 Other sales workers 7 Painters and building structure 4 cleaners Sales, marketing and public relations 6 Other stationary plant and machine 3 operatives Client information workers 6 Hairdressers and beauticians 4 Sports and fitness workers 5 Sheet and structural metals workers, 3 moulders and welders Software and applications developers, 5 Other personal services 3 analysts Food machine and products operatives 5 Assemblers 3 Mobile plant operators 5 Information and communication 3 technology Medical doctors 4 Other clerical support 3 There is a great deal of overlap between the shortage occupations identified from the analysis at the European level (Table 3.1) and the shortage occupations identified by the LFS indicators in most countries (Table 3.2). Over three-quarters of occupations identified in most countries were also on the list of 36 shortage occupations that emerged from the analysis at the European level. Furthermore, nine of the twelve occupations identified as having significant shortages from the analysis at the European level were also on the list of the 16 shortage occupations identified by five or more countries. This degree of overlap of shortages identified in specific countries and shortages across all countries suggest that the reduction from 93 to 65 occupations did not radically alter the result. However, there were two striking anomalies: no shortage of travel attendants, conductors and guides was identified in individual countries, but a shortage appeared to be significant at the European level; shop salespersons, despite being identified as a shortage in the most countries, did not emerge as a shortage in the analysis at the European level

29 Bottleneck Occupations The identification of significant shortages by country Not surprisingly, when the more severe test for significant shortages was applied to these 65 occupations (all three indicators pointing at a shortage), the numbers of occupations identified by the LFS indicators declined significantly. In the 24 countries for which the analysis was conducted (guided by the sample size), a total of 24 occupations were identified as having significant shortages. Furthermore, 10 of these occupations were identified in one country only. The 24 occupations which were identified by the LFS indicators as having significant shortages in 2015 are shown in Table 3.3. In general, the occupations which were identified as some shortages in the most countries are also the occupations which were identified as significant shortages in the most countries albeit the number of countries is much less. The exception is the occupation shop salespersons. Although it was identified as a shortage occupation in 12 countries, it was considered to be a significant shortage in only one country. Undoubtedly, this finding makes it easier to understand how the occupation did not feature in the list of shortages from the analysis at the European level. Four of the five construction-related occupations which appeared in the shortages list feature also on the list of significant shortages. This includes the three major construction composite occupations: building frame and related trades, building finishers and related trades and painters and building structure cleaners. There is compelling evidence from the analyses of LFS data that many skilled construction trades were in short supply in many European countries in 2015, and as we have seen in chapter 2, this evidence is augmented by the results of the analyses of the PES data. Table 3.3 Occupations with significant shortages (LSF indicators) Occupation Number of countries Number of countries Waiters and bartenders 7 Engineering professionals 2 Building frame and related trade workers 4 University and higher education 2 teachers Other sales workers 3 Food processing and related trades 1 workers Painters, building structure cleaners 3 Medical doctors 1 Car, van and motorcycle drivers 3 Artistic, cultural and culinary 1 technicians Building finishers and related trades workers 2 Sports and fitness workers 1 Child care and teachers aides 2 Assemblers 1 Cooks 2 Shop salespersons 1 Heavy truck and bus drivers 2 Other personal services 1 Sales, marketing and PR professionals 2 Building and housekeeping supervisors 1 Food and related machine operatives 2 Other stationary plant and machine 1 operators Personal care in health services 2 Other craft 1 Note: only 24 countries covered for comparison reasons with the PES analysis

30 Bottlenecks Occupations The identification of surpluses The LFS indicator developed to identify surplus occupations (the share of persons unemployed for over six months in the total unemployment in that occupation) was examined at the European and the individual country level. However, as already stated, the number of occupations which could be analysed in each specific country was very low and, consequently, only the results at the European level are presented in this report. This however, might underestimate the surpluses at individual country level. A shortage identified at the EU level, by representing an overall balance between the demand and supply in an occupation, masks the variability across individual countries, some of which may in fact be experiencing surpluses in that occupation. The visibility of surpluses in the smaller labour markets is more likely to be affected in this way. Table 3.4 Surplus occupations at the European level (LFS indicator) Occupation Primary school and early childhood teachers Physical and engineering science technicians Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Administrative specialise secretaries General secretaries General office clerks Material recording clerks Numerical clerks Hairdressing, beauticians Protective service workers Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades Food processing and related trades Heavy truck and bus drivers Assemblers Other stationary plant machine operatives Domestic hotel and office cleaners Mining and construction labourers Refuse workers Clerical occupations dominated the list of surplus occupations (accounting for five of the total of 18), while elementary occupations only accounted for two ( mining and construction labourers and refuse workers ). Of the 18 occupations identified as surplus occupations at the European level, only one professional occupation was identified as in excess supply - primary school and early childhood teachers. It is not clear what is driving this result, but one possible explanation could be the declining birth rates in a number of European countries. Two of the surplus occupations, heavy truck and bus drivers and hairdressers and beauticians, also appear in the top 30 shortage occupations identified in the most countries by the LFS indicators. Jobseekers who had previously worked in these occupations experienced difficulties finding work, particularly in Italy, despite these occupations being categorised as a shortage by the Italian PES. Italy is a country characterised by diverse regional labour markets and this may be the reason why these occupations are classified as both shortages and surpluses. The inclusion of blacksmiths, toolmakers and other trades also provides an insight into why toolmakers do not appear in the LFS list of shortages although they are prominent in the shortages identified by the PES. There is no doubt that toolmakers are in short supply

31 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 in many European countries 13. However, the long-term unemployment rates (defined here as 6+ months) show that most unemployed persons in this occupational category (which combines skills other than toolmaking) experienced difficulties finding employment in Consequently, it is not surprising that this occupation did not qualify as a shortage. The LFS indicators are influenced by the labour market situation of every occupation in the relevant category. Even at the relatively high level of granularity provided by the 3- digit codes, the situation of toolmakers was clearly affected by the situation of blacksmiths and other similar trades in In contrast, the sources used by the PES are able to identify the labour market situation of each specific occupation (i.e. four digit occupation). 3.7 Conclusions The identification of shortage and surplus occupations from the LFS data was not entirely successful. Firstly, the employment numbers in some occupations in many countries were too small to generate statistically robust results. Thus, although the analysis was applied to all 24 countries where PES data on shortages was available, the analysis was only able to produce results for 18 countries. Secondly, focusing only on one year of the LSF data makes the analysis more susceptible to sampling bias, which is better handled when several observations over time are available to smooth variations caused by sampling. This, for example, may explain the omission of nurses and midwives from the LFS list of shortages in The occupation associate professional nurses and midwives missed inclusion into the list of shortages by a single percentage point. Thirdly, some of the most frequently identified shortage occupations, most notably waiters and bartenders, would not be generally considered a high-skill or perhaps even a medium-skill occupation. However, this phenomenon of relatively less skilled occupations featuring strongly in the list of most frequently mentioned shortages appears also on the PES lists of frequently mentioned shortages (e.g. shop salespersons). These occupations reflect a different type of shortage and it is important that the policy analysts do not respond to these shortages in the same manner that they respond to shortages which arise primarily from skill deficits. It is notable that the list of shortages which emerged from the analyses of just over 90 occupations (European level) was quite similar to the list which emerged from the analyses of 65 occupations (individual countries). The fact that shortages were found in a minimum of 18 European countries in every analysis seems to have ensured that most of the main shortage occupations would emerge on the shortages list irrespective of whether employment at the European level was the focus of the analysis or employment in individual countries. 13 Ireland, for example, has imported toolmakers from Portugal to supply specialised tools to its medical devices and bio-pharma industries. 14 There may also be definitional problems at work; toolmakers and moulders are often confused, and moulders are identified by the LFS indicators as in short supply

32 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 It may be informative therefore to conduct a second analysis, but on the more aggregate 2-digit occupation codes. While this level of aggregation would further reduce the number of specific occupations which could be analysed, it would introduce an occupation category which would allow virtually all the occupation categories in all countries to be analysed. If this analysis also included data from all 32 PES, it would be possible to identify the extent to which the LFS and PES list of shortage occupations were consistent with each other albeit at a more aggregate level. This possibility and the potential benefits to be derived from such an analysis is discussed in more detail in chapter 5 where a process is presented for the analyses of shortages and surpluses across different European countries

33 Bottleneck Occupations MATCHING PES AND LFS IDENTIFIED SHORTAGES 4.1 Introduction In this chapter, the shortages identified by the LFS indicators are compared to the shortages identified by the PES in each of the 24 countries for which PES data on shortages was available. 15 As already stated in chapter 3, the number of occupations which can be analysed by the LFS indicators decline from 93 occupations when the indicators are applied to Europeanwide data to just 65 occupations when the analysis is applied to individual countries. 4.2 Comparison of the most widespread PES and LFS shortages The first comparison is of the most widespread shortages identified by the PES and the LFS indicators. Specifically, the top 29 occupations classified by the most PES as shortage occupations (in effect an extension of Table 2.2) were compared to the top 30 occupations classified by the LFS indicators as shortage occupations in the most countries (Table 3.2). Table 4.1 Shortage occupations (PES and LFS indicators) Occupation Overlap Occupation Overlap Software and applications developers and analysts Physical and engineering science technicians Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Shop salespersons Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers Database and network professionals Building frame and related trades workers Food processing and related trades workers Medical doctors Other health professionals Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and Personal care workers in health services welders Electrical equipment installers and repairers Information and communication technicians Heavy truck and bus drivers Nursing and midwifery associate professionals Building finishers and related trades workers Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades Engineering professionals Other sales workers Nursing and midwifery professionals Assemblers Cooks Mobile plant operators Machinery mechanics and repairers Electro-technology engineers Finance professionals Secondary education teachers Social and religious professionals These lists are brought together under Table 4.1. The occupations listed are those identified by the PES; a tick denotes an instance where the occupation was also identified by the LFS indicators While 26 PES submitted data on shortages, this figure included three regional PES in Belgium

34 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 A total of 16 of the top 29 PES shortage occupations were also on the list of the top 30 shortage occupations identified by the LFS in the most countries. These included all of the construction-related occupations, two of the three software occupations and professions such as doctors and engineers. Occupations which are associated with high levels of turnover, such as cooks, shop salespersons and heavy goods drivers were also on both lists. However, only two of the five health occupations are on both lists. Both professional nurses and midwives and associate professional nurses and midwives are absent from the LFS list of shortages as are other health professionals. The analyses of the PES and LFS shortages in each country provide some insight into why these occupations are missing from the LFS list (see Table 4.3) 4.3 Comparison of the most widespread significant PES and LFS shortages Table 4.2 brings together the list of occupations which were classified by the most PES as occupations with shortages of high magnitude (Table 2.3) and compares them to the list of occupations classified by the LFS indicators as having significant shortages (Table 3.3) in the most countries. As in Table 4.1, a tick denotes an instance where the occupation identified by the PES was also identified by the LFS indicators. There were 11 occupations which were identified in both lists of shortages. Table 4.2 Occupations with high magnitude shortage (PES and LFS indicators) Occupation Overlap Occupation Overlap Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders Chemical and photographic products plant and welders and machine operators Personal care workers in health services Child care workers and teachers' aides Assemblers Cooks Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades Database and network professionals workers Building frame and related trades workers Food preparation assistants Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Heavy truck and bus drivers Garment and related trades workers ICT operations and user support technicians Nursing and midwifery professionals Medical doctors Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades Software and applications developers and analysts Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Mining and construction labourers Other health associate professionals Primary school and early childhood teachers Building and housekeeping supervisors Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Building finishers and related trades workers Social and religious professionals There were 26 occupations in the PES list and 24 occupations in the list produced by the LFS indicators. However, as pointed out in chapter two, four of the occupations identified by the PES as having shortages of high magnitude are from the elementary major group of occupations. This group of occupations was excluded from the analysis of shortage 16 As stated in chapter 3, while the LFS indicators were applied to the 24 countries where PES data on shortages was available, the indicators could not identify any shortage occupations in six of those countries because the employment values were too small to be reliable. These countries are BG, EE, HR, LT, SK, and SI

35 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 occupations by the LFS indicators and should therefore also be excluded from the comparison. If this is done, it emerges that exactly half of the 24 occupations identified by the LFS indicators are also on the list of 22 occupations identified by the PES. 4.4 Comparison of the most widespread PES and LFS shortages in the same country Finally, a comparison is made of the extent to which the sixty-five occupations which were analysed over twenty-four countries by the LFS indicators were also identified as shortage occupations by the relevant national PES. The results are mapped out in Table 4.3 below. A total of fifty-seven of the sixty-five occupations were identified in at least one country as an occupation with at least some shortages by the LFS indicators. In addition, such shortages were identified in eighteen of the twenty-four countries that were the focus of the analyses. The dark shaded areas indicate that both the LFS indicators using the national LFS data and the relevant national PES identified the same occupation as a shortage. The lighter shaded areas identified occupations which were classified by the LFS as being a shortage occupation in that country, but which were not classified as shortages by the relevant national PES. As stated, a total of fifty-seven of the sixty-five occupations which were analysed by the LFS indicators were classified as shortage occupations. A total of thirty-three of these fifty-seven occupations were also identified by at least one PES as a shortage occupation. However, the extent to which these thirty-three shortage occupations were identified by both the LFS indicators and the national PES in the same country was disappointing. In four countries, Belgium, Cyprus, Luxembourg and the Czech Republic, all of the occupations identified as shortage occupations by the LFS indicators were also identified as shortage occupations by the national PES. However, the number of occupations was modest; seven in Belgium and three each in the other countries. It is interesting to compare the results of the comparison in countries where the employment levels were relatively large. In Germany, for example, a total of thirty-three occupations were identified by the LFS indicators as shortage occupations but only five of these occupations were also identified as shortage occupations by the German PES. These include two health associate professional occupations, two construction craft occupations and a software occupation. In France, the LFS indicators identified a total of twenty-four shortage occupations, but only nine of these occupations were also identified by the French PES. The matched occupations were quite diverse and included a couple of health and construction occupations as well as a software occupation. In Italy, there were nineteen occupations identified by the LFS indicators as having shortages in 2015, but only four of these occupations were also identified by the Italian PES as shortages. These occupations include two which are strongly related to the hospitality sector, waiters and bartenders and cooks, and undoubtedly reflects the very strong tourism industry in Italy. Heavy truck and bus drivers and personal care workers in the health services were also identified by both the LFS indicators and the Italian PES as shortages

36 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 There were sixteen occupations identified as shortages in the Netherlands by the LFS indicators and three of these occupations, all of which were professional occupations, were identified by both the LFS and the Dutch PES. Indeed, the skills shortage profile in the Netherlands, as classified by both the Dutch PES and the LFS indicators, is striking. The Dutch PES did not identify any shortage occupations in the elementary group of occupations and only one each in the operatives and personal services and sales and clerical group of occupations. Similarly, the LFS indicators did not identify any shortage occupations in the operatives or craft occupation categories. In contrast, three of the five professional occupations which were identified by the LFS indicators as having shortages in 2015 were also identified as shortages by the Dutch PES. These occupations include software analysts, engineering professionals and sales, marketing and PR professionals. In Norway, a total of twenty-five occupations were identified as having shortages, and just over half of these occupations (13) were also identified as shortage occupations by the PES. These included occupations from every major group that was analysed by the LFS indicators. Thus three of the eight professional occupations identified as shortages by the LFS indicators were also identified by the PES (including doctors, engineers and university and higher education teachers). The UK PES submitted their official list of occupations which qualified for work permits in 2015 as their list of shortage occupations. Not surprisingly, as the list of PES identified shortages was not submitted, the number of matched shortages was very low. Of the 20 occupations identified by the LFS indicators, only three occupations were also on the UK list of occupations that qualified for work permits. Two were professional occupations ( doctors and architects, planners, designers and surveyors ), while the third was a craft occupation ( sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders ). A total of seven occupations were identified by both the LFS indicators and the PES in the same countries as a shortage occupation. Thus, the occupation software applications developers and analysts was identified as a shortage occupation by the LFS indicators in Belgium, Germany, Denmark, France and the Netherlands and it was also identified by the PES in each of these countries as a shortage. Similarly, a shortage of building finishers and related trades workers was identified by the PES in Belgium, Germany, France and Norway and it was also identified as a shortage by the LFS indicators. Two occupations ( other health professionals and administrative professions ) were identified in two countries by both the LFS indicators and the PES, while three occupations ( nurses and midwives associate professionals, legal professionals and social and religious professionals ) were identified as shortage occupations in one country. However, the majority of the occupations identified by the LFS indicators as shortage occupations were not identified as such by the relevant national PES. Undoubtedly, this result was strongly influenced by the fact that the PES identified 4-digit occupations as shortages, and the LFS indicators were applied to 3-digit occupations, each of which were comprised of a number of 4-digit occupations

37 Table 4.3 Comparison of shortages identified by PES and LFS by country Bottleneck Occupations 2016 ICO08 title BE CY CZ DE DK FI FR IS IE HU IT LU NL LV NO PO PT UK Physical and earth science professionals Life science professionals Engineering prof. (exc.electrotech) Architects, planners, surveyors, designers Medical doctors Other health professionals University and higher education teachers Secondary education teachers Other teaching professionals Finance professionals Administrative professionals Sales, marketing and public relations prof Software and applications developers Database and network professionals Legal professionals Social and religious professionals Authors, journalists and linguists Mining, manuf./construction supervisors Process control technicians Medical and pharmaceutical technicians Nursing and midwifery associate prof Other health associate professionals Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Business services agents Administrative and specialised secretaries Legal, social and religious associate prof Sports and fitness workers Artistic, cultural, culinary associate prof ICT technicians ICT user support technicians Telecommunications Keyboard operators Client information workers Numerical clerks Material-recording and transport clerks Other clerical support workers Travel attendants, conductors and guides Cooks Waiters and bartenders Hairdressers, beauticians and related Building and housekeeping supervisors Other personal services workers Shop salespersons Cashiers and ticket clerks Other sales workers Child care workers and teachers' aides Personal care workers in health services Protective services workers Building frame and related trades workers Building finishers and related trades Painters, building structure cleaners Structural metal, moulders, welders Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related Handicraft workers Electronics/ telecomm. installers Food processing and related trades Garment and related trades workers Other craft and related workers Textile, fur and leather machine operators Food and related machine operators Other stationary plant operators Assemblers Car, van and motorcycle drivers Heavy truck and bus drivers Mobile plant operators PES and LSF LSF only If the 4-digit occupation which was identified by the PES had a relatively small share of the total employment of the 3-digit occupation to which it belonged, it would not be visible to the LFS indicator. This situation occurred quite frequently and was a major contributing factor in the relatively low number of shortage occupations which were identified by both the PES and the LFS indicators in the same country

38 4.5 Comparison of PES and LSF surpluses Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table 4.4 provides a comparison between the surplus occupations identified using the PES and LSF data. There are five occupations which are identified using both datasets. There is also a number of occupations which are exclusive to each dataset. To some extent this reflects the fact that the PES identifies the data at 4-digit codes and the LSF data is in 3-digit codes, which is not directly comparable. In other words, at the job title level, there may not be a surplus (and indeed there may be a shortage), while at an occupation level (which combines a number of job titles) there is a surplus. Table 4.4 Comparison (and overlap) between PES and LSF surpluses LSF Food processing and related trades General office clerks Hairdressing, beauticians Mining and construction labourers Protective service workers Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Administrative specialise secretaries Assemblers Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades Domestic hotel and office cleaners General secretaries Heavy truck and bus drivers Material recording clerks Numerical clerks Other stationary plant machine operatives Physical and engineering science technicians Primary school and early childhood teachers Protective service workers Refuse workers PES Food preparation assistants General office clerks Hairdressers, beauticians Mining/construction labourers Protective services workers Sales, marketing and PR Architects, planners, surveyors Building frame and related trades Client information workers Personal care workers in health Secretaries (general) Shop salespersons Social and religious professionals 4.6 Conclusions The direct comparison between PES and LFS shortage and surplus occupations did not produce a high share of matching shortages or surpluses. While there was an over 50% matching between the most widespread PES and LFS identified shortages, the level of matching of PES and LFS-identified shortages in the same country was very low, with the exception of Norway. There was a higher level of convergence in respect of certain occupations. A total of seven occupations were identified by both the LFS indicators and the PES in the same countries; the situation regarding software analysts and developers was striking as the shortages identified by the LFS indicators in a total of five countries were also identified as shortages by the PES in each of those countries. One of the main problems in attempting to find matches between the shortage occupations identified by the PES and the LFS indicators is that the PES identified their shortages at the more detailed 4-digit level, while the LFS indicators were applied to 3- digit level codes. Consequently, if the 4-digit occupation classified by the PES as a

39 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 shortage was a relatively small share of the total employment in the relevant 3-digit code, it would not be visible as a shortage to any of the three LFS indicators. This was a major factor in the relatively low level of matching between the shortage occupations identified by the PES and the LFS indicators. As a consequence, it is proposed in the next chapter that any direct comparison between shortage occupations identified by the PES and the LFS indicators for individual countries should be based on aggregating both lists of shortages to 2-digit groups of occupations. While this level of analysis will not provide the level of granularity which the PES requires, it will provide a mechanism for assessing the extent to which the shortages identified by the PES in each country is comprehensive

40 Bottlenecks Occupations DEVELOPING A MODEL FOR IDENTIFICATION OF SHORTAGE AND SURPLUS OCCUPATIONS It is notoriously difficult to identify skill shortages or surpluses. Whatever nomenclature is used, there are hundreds of specific occupations. As we have seen in this study, it is impossible to reliably identify the employment levels in each of these occupations from a sample survey such as the European Labour Force Survey. It may be possible to do so by creating a customised survey, but the survey must be very large and inevitably very expensive. The Labour Balance Survey conducted by the Danish Ministry of Labour is the best European example of the resources required to gather reliable and detailed data on the labour market situation of every occupation. There are a range of occupations which behave like shortage occupations, but which are in fact surplus to market requirements. Such occupations generate large volumes of vacancies. They are the focus of extensive recruitment activity and employers regularly complain in surveys about the difficulties of recruiting and retaining workers in these occupations. Typically, these occupations are characterised by high levels of turnover and relatively low levels of skill. The shortage is not of a skills deficit as such, but rather arises because many jobseekers for a variety of reasons do not wish to work in the occupation. In this study, both the lists of shortages provided by the PES and the list produced by the LFS indicators include a range of such occupations. Some of them figure very prominently in the shortage lists, most notably shop salespersons in the case of the PES and waiters and bartenders in the case of the LFS indicators. It is imperative that some attempt is made to compare shortage and surplus occupations across the European labour market and to understand the nature of these shortages. Jobseekers need to know which occupations are associated with skill deficits so that they may enhance their employment prospects by acquiring the qualifications to work in those occupations. They also need to know which occupations to avoid because they are surplus to market requirements. At the national level, the PES need to know which shortage occupations are suffering from skill deficits and which shortage occupations reflect high levels of turnover in order to identify the appropriate policy response. Skill deficits may be successfully resolved through targeted training programmes, while other policy responses may be required to address retention issues. At the European level, policymakers require information on the geographical distribution of shortage and surplus occupations in order to assess the potential to resolve mismatches through encouraging skills and labour mobility from regions where an occupation is in surplus to regions where it is in short supply. Figure 5.1 presents a process through which shortage and surplus occupations may be identified in each European country. There are four stages to the process. In stage one, data on shortage and surplus occupations are identified by the European PES. The occupations should be at the highest level of granularity; that is they should be at 4-digit level because that is the level of detail which is of most use to the PES in the design of active labour market measures

41 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Another advantage of the PES identifying both shortage and surplus occupations at the highest level of granularity (i.e. in effect at the level of individual job-titles) is that it facilitates the matching of shortage occupations with surplus occupations across countries and regions by EURES. This process is described in chapter 2 and it is one of the key benefits of stage 1 of the process outlined in Figure 5.1. The second stage involves aggregating the 4-digit occupations into 2-digit groups of similar occupations. This level of aggregation is necessary to facilitate comparison between the PES list of shortage and surplus occupations and a number of selected indicators based on LFS data in every European country. The third stage involves the creation of the LFS shortage indicators. It is proposed that there should be three indicators. The first indicator is that the occupation has a lower than expected education profile. If this indicator exists, it implies that the employer was unable to recruit a sufficient number of persons with the required qualifications and the occupation is probably suffering from shortages. The second indication that the occupation is probably a shortage occupation is that a high number of foreign nationals are employed in the occupation. This is true of a range of occupations which are known to suffer from skill deficits, such as doctors, nurses and software developers. The third indication of a shortage occupation is a low ratio of unemployed to new hirings. This indicator has been tested against digit occupations (see Annex 3), and the results show that this is a very reliable indicator for identifying occupations which are suffering from skill shortages. Virtually all the occupations which would be considered to be relatively low skilled and to have no barriers to entry (e.g. labourers) have a ratio of 0.4 or 0.5. In contrast, the occupations which are known to be associated with skill shortages have ratios of 0.1 and 0.2 (see Annex 3). The fourth stage is designed to assist in distinguishing between shortages which arise from skill deficits and shortages which reflect high turnover rates. Occupations which have been identified by the PES as shortage occupations and which have a low ratio of unemployed to new hirings are suffering from skill deficits; on the other hand, shortage occupations which have a high ratio reflect recruitment and retention problems rather than skill deficits and can be more correctly classified as labour shortages. The fourth stage also includes the identification of surplus occupations. It is proposed that those occupations which have a high proportion of persons who are unemployed for more than 6 months are surplus to the requirements of the local market. Nevertheless, the LFS indicators can make a useful contribution in a number of ways. They can be used to identify whether a PES-identified shortage reflects high turnover rates (i.e. ratio between unemployment and new hirings is relatively high) or whether it reflects a skills deficit (i.e. ratio between unemployment and new hirings is relatively low). They can also be used to identify whether or not the list of shortage occupations identified by the corresponding national PES is exhaustive. Thus, for example, if one of the 2-digit occupation groups identified by the LFS as a shortage is not identified by the corresponding national PES, it would be prudent to check the 4-digit occupations which are contained within the 2-digit group of occupations against the

42 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 list of 4-digit shortage occupations identified by that national PES. If none of the 4- digit code occupations were on the PES list of identified 4-digit occupations, it would imply that there were shortages in that group of 2-digit occupations which were not picked-up by that PES. By applying this method in a systematic manner, an assessment may be made of the extent to which each PES is providing a comprehensive list of shortage occupations. The results could be compared to the source data used by each PES to establish which methodologies and sources provide the most comprehensive lists of shortages. Thirdly, the analyses of LFS data at European level, specifically the analyses of the share of unemployed with more than 6 months since their previous occupation, provides a reliable basis for identifying surplus occupations in the EU28, Iceland and Norway. Thus, while the possibilities of sampling error mean that lists of shortages produced by analyses conducted of LFS data cannot be directly compared to lists resulting from an analyses of PES data at the desired level of granularity (i.e. 4-digits), the LFS data can make a very useful contribution to understanding labour market imbalances at both European and national level

43 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Figure 5.1 A process for identification of skills and labour shortages and surpluses Identify shortage/surplus occupations using PES data Aggregate PES data for comparison with other sources Cross-check PES identified shortages with LSF data Distinguish skill from labour shortages Use the infomation at the lowest level of aggregation (ISCO 4- digit) This allows for the provision of greater granularity needed for policy design Aggregate ISCO 4-digit level to ISCO 2-digit level This allows primarily for comparison with the LSF data The LSF data requires a higher level of aggregation to avoid statistical error arising from sampling At sufficient level of aggregation (2-digit ISCO) meaningful comparion can be conducted between PES and LSF data for every country Occupations in short supply are likely to exhibit: lower than expected education profile high share of nonnationals low ratio of unemployed to new hires Occupations for which skill shortages exist are likely to exhibit a low ratio of unemployed to new hirings Occupations for which there is a high ratio of unemployed to new hirings, although identified as in short supply are likely to be associated with labour not skill shortages Occupations for which there is a high share of unemployed for longer than 6 months are likely to be in surplus; any initially identified shortages through PES or LSF are likely to be due to labour shortages

44 Bottlenecks Occupations CONCLUSIONS This report covers a wide range of issues relating to the identification of labour market imbalances across the EU28, Iceland and Norway. It begins with an analysis of the shortage occupations identified by 26 PES and compares these occupations with the shortage occupations identified by 23 PES in last year s report. The ranking of each occupation in terms of the number of PES that identified it as a shortage is noted and this is compared to its ranking in last year s report. This year s report also includes an analysis of occupations which have been identified by the PES as surplus occupations a surplus occurs when the number of jobseekers with experience of working in the occupation is greater than local market requirements. The comparison can provide a basis for meeting the requirements of Article 30 of the EURES Regulation (EU) 2016/589. Some overlap between shortage and surplus occupations was evident in the data provided by the PES. This raised the possibility that the list of shortages provided by some PES contain two very different types of shortage. The first is a shortage created by the fact that there was an insufficient number of jobseekers with the appropriate qualifications/experience available to fill every vacancy. In the second type of shortage, there are sufficient jobseekers with the appropriate experience to fill the vacancies, but nevertheless the occupation is associated with recruitment and retention difficulties. The existence of both types of shortage in the list of shortages provided by some PES is confirmed by the ratio of unemployed to new hirings. This is relatively high for many of the shortage occupations, indicating that there is a sufficient number of persons who have experience working in the occupation to meet the recruitment need. The problem of shortages arises because for whatever reason, many of these jobseekers apparently are not willing to continue to work in the occupation in question. Identified labour shortages and surpluses communicated by the PES are useful for the preparation of the national work programmes for the activities of the EURES network, notably when matching over the frontiers is possible. Moreover, this is part of the obligations of Member States according to Article 30 of the EURES regulation (see section 5 of the report). There is circumstantial evidence to suggest that worker mobility is becoming a feature of occupation employment structures in the countries located in the north and west of the European Union. Jobs in many of the shortage occupations identified by the PES, such as shop sales persons and personal care workers in the health services, are to an increasing extent being filled by nationals from other than the country in which the PES is located. Despite this, the results of the analyses in this report indicate that there are still widespread shortages in these occupations (e.g. 12 PES identified shortages of shop sales persons) in many countries, including countries located in the north and west of the EU Community. There is potential for the PES working through the EURES network - to

45 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 systematically engage in resolving these mismatches through encouraging greater occupational mobility from low cost to high cost countries. Due to the fact that it is based on a sample, it was not possible to develop LFS indicators which could identify shortages and surpluses at the level of granularity that the PES would find useful. Nevertheless, the analysis in the report shows that the LFS indicators can make a very valuable contribution to our understanding of labour market imbalances in three ways. Firstly, the indicators and especially the ratio of unemployed to job hirings are useful for identifying the nature of the shortages identified by the PES; secondly, the LFS indicators can identify which occupations are in surplus. Thirdly, the LFS indicators, when both the LFS data and the PES data is aggregated to 2-digit groups of occupations, can be used as a check list to ensure that the list of shortage occupations produced by each national and regional PES is comprehensive. In addition, it is the recommendation of this report that a dialogue should begin with the PES on how to build on the evidence provided in this report by Increasing the number of PES providing data on shortages and surpluses Increasing the number of PES which provide an indication of the magnitude of shortages and surpluses Providing a mechanism for distinguishing between skill and labour shortages Increasing precision to identify job titles in short supply and avoiding incidence of an occupation having both surpluses and shortages (at job title level)

46 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 ANNEX 1 PES DATA AND METHODOLOGY A total of 26 different PES submitted data for analysis. This figure contains three more than the number of PES that submitted data for the 2015 Bottleneck Vacancies study. Table A1 provides a summary of the type of data which was submitted by the PES for this study. The table shows that while 26 PES submitted data on shortages, only half of these PES submitted data on surpluses. All of the PES that submitted data on surpluses provided the relevant ISCO-08 4-digit code, as did 22 of the 26 PES that submitted data on shortages. Two PES provided their data in 3-digit codes, while two PES provided their own coding, which was subsequently translated to ISCO-08 codes. Table A1. Summary of data submitted by the PES Number of PES Shortages Surpluses Reporting bottlenecks Reporting magnitude 13 9 Reporting timeframe/persistence 18 9 Reporting only 2016 data 14 9 Reporting only 2015 data 8 4 Reporting earlier or mixed time of data 4 0 Reporting ISCO-4 code Reporting ISCO-3 code only 2 (IT, CZ) 0 Not coded ISCO (needed to recode) 2 (UK, Belgium VDAB) 0 As the data analysed in the LFS is at three-digit codes, the four-digit codes submitted by the PES had to be aggregated to the LFS three-digit codes. This created the possibility that the four-digit job titles, which had been identified by the PES as the shortage or surplus occupation, would not be identified by the analysis of LFS data as it is no longer visible in the more composite three-digit occupation. Only half of the PES that submitted data on shortages reported on the magnitude of those shortages (i.e. high, medium or low). With regard to surpluses, only nine of the 13 PES that provided data on surplus occupations stated their relative magnitude. Table A2 below provides a list of the countries which submitted data. A total of 32 PES were invited to participate in this study through submitting their data on surpluses and shortages. This figure included all 28 Member States of the European Union, Norway and Iceland. 17 A total of 28 PES submitted data, but in the case of Malta and Austria, it was not possible to conduct the appropriate analyses of their data. A total of four PES (Sweden, Greece, Romania and Spain) did not submit any data. The Greek, Spanish and Romanian PES did not submit any data to the 2015 Bottleneck Vacancies Report either. In the case of Sweden, they were unusually busy during the period when the data was required. 17 The three Belgian regional PES were also included, adding up to a total of 32 PES

47 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Table A2. Participating PES Participated Incomplete or late data Did not participate BE Actrisis, BG, CY, CZ, DK, DE, EE, FI, FR, HR, HU, IE, IT, IS, LU, LT, LV, BE Le Forem, NL, NO, PL, PT, SK, SI, UK, BE VDAB, AT, MT EL, RO, ES, SE Table A3. Number of ISCO-08 4-digit occupations with shortages/surpluses Countries Shortage Surplus Belgium Actiris 86 Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB 50 Bulgaria Croatia 11 Cyprus Czech Republic 5 Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany 52 Hungary Iceland Ireland 43 Italy 20 Latvia 15 Lithuania 27 Luxembourg 20 Netherlands Norway Poland 20 8 Portugal 20 Slovakia 48 8 Slovenia 63 United Kingdom

48 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Figure A1. Number of occupations in short supply/surplus Estonia Belgium Actiris France Belgium Le Forem Norway Slovenia Hungary Germany Netherlands Belgium VDAB Slovakia Ireland United Kingdom Cyprus Lithuania Portugal Poland Luxembourg Italy Iceland Denmark Bulgaria Latvia Finland Croatia Czech Republic Surplus Shortage Figure A2. Distribution of shortages by estimated magnitude Shortages Surpluses 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% high medium low high medium low

49 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table A4. Occupational distribution of shortages (number of occupations mentioned) Countries Managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Elementary occupations Belgium Actiris 9% 36% 26% 5% 12% 9% 3% 100% Belgium Le Forem 12% 24% 24% 0% 5% 26% 5% 4% 100% Belgium VDAB 20% 10% 32% 2% 4% 24% 6% 2% 100% Bulgaria 35% 5% 15% 25% 20% 100% Croatia 36% 9% 45% 9% 100% Cyprus 25% 6% 6% 19% 19% 3% 22% 100% Czech Republic 40% 40% 20% 100% Denmark 15% 5% 5% 25% 30% 10% 10% 100% Estonia 14% 23% 18% 1% 8% 3% 17% 13% 3% 100% Finland 53% 27% 7% 13% 100% France 10% 17% 23% 1% 2% 23% 22% 1% 100% Germany 38% 37% 19% 4% 2% 100% Hungary 8% 11% 11% 16% 7% 16% 5% 25% 100% Iceland 30% 15% 10% 20% 5% 20% 100% Ireland 12% 40% 23% 5% 2% 7% 12% 100% Italy 15% 20% 10% 35% 10% 5% 5% 100% Latvia 20% 7% 7% 13% 40% 7% 7% 100% Lithuania 33% 4% 7% 52% 4% 100% Luxembourg 30% 45% 20% 5% 100% Netherlands 2% 48% 16% 10% 2% 2% 18% 2% 100% Norway 6% 25% 9% 3% 19% 2% 25% 9% 2% 100% Poland 35% 30% 5% 5% 5% 5% 15% 100% Portugal 5% 10% 20% 15% 25% 20% 5% 100% Slovakia 25% 13% 4% 23% 2% 15% 13% 6% 100% Slovenia 2% 25% 6% 2% 13% 38% 8% 6% 100% United Kingdom 6% 76% 6% 3% 9% 100% Grand Total 7% 28% 17% 3% 10% 1% 20% 8% 5% 100% Total

50 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table A5. Occupational distribution of surpluses (number of occupations mentioned) Country Managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service and sales workers Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers Craft and related trades workers Plant and machine operators, and assemblers Elementary Occupations Belgium Le Forem 5% 14% 13% 6% 17% 4% 20% 11% 11% 100% Bulgaria 0% 30% 15% 10% 25% 5% 0% 0% 15% 100% Cyprus 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 30% 100% Denmark 0% 21% 5% 16% 21% 0% 0% 0% 37% 100% Estonia 1% 32% 15% 13% 18% 0% 11% 0% 10% 100% Finland 0% 38% 15% 11% 3% 2% 25% 2% 5% 100% France 23% 21% 31% 3% 10% 3% 5% 0% 5% 100% Hungary 0% 11% 20% 8% 23% 7% 15% 3% 13% 100% Iceland 6% 61% 6% 11% 0% 6% 11% 0% 0% 100% Netherlands 4% 11% 7% 33% 37% 0% 4% 0% 4% 100% Norway 0% 6% 6% 6% 38% 0% 6% 19% 19% 100% Poland 0% 25% 0% 0% 25% 0% 38% 13% 0% 100% Slovakia 0% 25% 0% 50% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Grand Total 4% 22% 14% 10% 17% 3% 15% 5% 10% 100% Total

51 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Table 6: Detailed lists of shortage/surplus mentions Managers: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Business services and administration managers Hotel and restaurant managers Information and communications technology service managers Legislators and senior officials Manufacturing, mining, construction, and distribution managers Other services managers Production managers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries Professional services managers Retail and wholesale trade managers Sales, marketing and development managers Surplus occupation Business services and administration managers Commissioned armed forces officers Hotel and restaurant managers Legislators and senior officials Managing directors and chief executives Manufacturing, mining, construction, and distribution managers Other services managers Professional services managers Sales, marketing and development managers

52 Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Professionals: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Administration professionals Architects, planners, surveyors and designers Authors, journalists and linguists Creative and performing artists Database and network professionals Electrotechnology engineers Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology) Finance professionals Legal professionals Librarians, archivists and curators Life science professionals Mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians Medical doctors Nursing and midwifery professionals Other health professionals Other teaching professionals Paramedical practitioners Physical and earth science professionals Primary school and early childhood teachers Sales, marketing and public relations professionals Secondary education teachers Social and religious professionals Software and applications developers and analysts University and higher education teachers Vocational education teachers

53 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Surplus occupation Administration professionals Architects, planners, surveyors and designers Authors, journalists and linguists Creative and performing artists Database and network professionals Electrotechnology engineers Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology) Finance professionals Legal professionals Librarians, archivists and curators Life science professionals Mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians Nursing and midwifery professionals Other health professionals Other teaching professionals Physical and earth science professionals Primary school and early childhood teachers Sales, marketing and public relations professionals Secondary education teachers Social and religious professionals Software and applications developers and analysts University and higher education teachers Veterinarians Vocational education teachers

54 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Associate professionals and technicians: mentions of shortage Shortage occupation Administrative and specialised secretaries Artistic, cultural and culinary associate professionals Business services agents Financial and mathematical associate professionals Information and communications technology operations and user support technicians Legal, social and religious associate professionals Life science technicians and related associate professionals Medical and pharmaceutical technicians Mining, manufacturing and construction supervisors Nursing and midwifery associate professionals Other health associate professionals Physical and engineering science technicians Process control technicians Regulatory government associate professionals Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Ship and aircraft controllers and technicians Sports and fitness workers Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians Surplus occupation Administrative and specialised secretaries Artistic, cultural and culinary associate professionals Business services agents Financial and mathematical associate professionals Information and communications technology operations and user support technicians Legal, social and religious associate professionals Life science technicians and related associate professionals Medical and pharmaceutical technicians Mining, manufacturing and construction supervisors Nursing and midwifery associate professionals Other health associate professionals Physical and engineering science technicians Process control technicians Regulatory government associate professionals Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Sports and fitness workers Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians Veterinary technicians and assistants

55 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Clerical occupations: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Client information workers General office clerks Keyboard operators Material-recording and transport clerks Numerical clerks Other clerical support workers Secretaries (general) Tellers, money collectors and related clerks Surplus occupation Client information workers General office clerks Keyboard operators Material-recording and transport clerks Numerical clerks Other clerical support workers Secretaries (general) Tellers, money collectors and related clerks

56 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Craft occupations: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers Building finishers and related trades workers Building frame and related trades workers Electrical equipment installers and repairers Electronics and telecommunications installers and repairers Food processing and related trades workers Garment and related trades workers Machinery mechanics and repairers Other craft and related workers Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers Printing trades workers Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers Surplus occupation Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers Building finishers and related trades workers Building frame and related trades workers Electrical equipment installers and repairers Electronics and telecommunications installers and repairers Food processing and related trades workers Garment and related trades workers Handicraft workers Machinery mechanics and repairers Other craft and related workers Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers Printing trades workers Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders, and related workers Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers

57 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Skilled agricultural and related occupations: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Animal producers Market gardeners and crop growers Mixed crop and animal producers Surplus occupation Animal producers Forestry and related workers Market gardeners and crop growers Mixed crop and animal producers

58 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Personal services and sales occupations: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Building and housekeeping supervisors Cashiers and ticket clerks Child care workers and teachers' aides Cooks Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers Other personal services workers Other sales workers Personal care workers in health services Protective services workers Shop salespersons Street and market salespersons Travel attendants, conductors and guides Waiters and bartenders Surplus occupation Building and housekeeping supervisors Cashiers and ticket clerks Child care workers and teachers' aides Cooks Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers Other personal services workers Other sales workers Personal care workers in health services Protective services workers Shop salespersons Street and market salespersons Travel attendants, conductors and guides Waiters and bartenders

59 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Operatives: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Assemblers Car, van and motorcycle drivers Chemical and photographic products plant and machine operators Food and related products machine operators Heavy truck and bus drivers Locomotive engine drivers and related workers Metal processing and finishing plant operators Mining and mineral processing plant operators Mobile plant operators Other stationary plant and machine operators Rubber, plastic and paper products machine operators Ships' deck crews and related workers Textile, fur and leather products machine operators Wood processing and papermaking plant operators Surplus occupation Assemblers Car, van and motorcycle drivers Chemical and photographic products plant and machine operators Food and related products machine operators Heavy truck and bus drivers Metal processing and finishing plant operators Mining and mineral processing plant operators Mobile plant operators Other stationary plant and machine operators Rubber, plastic and paper products machine operators Textile, fur and leather products machine operators

60 Belgium Le Forem Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Estonia Finland France Hungary Iceland Netherlands Norway Poland Slovakia Total number of mentions Number of PES Belgium Actiris Belgium Le Forem Belgium VDAB Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia United Kingdom Total number of mentions No of PES Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Elementary occupations: mentions of shortage/surplus Shortage occupation Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Food preparation assistants Manufacturing labourers Mining and construction labourers Other elementary workers Refuse workers Street and related service workers Transport and storage labourers Vehicle, window, laundry and other hand cleaning workers Surplus occupation Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Food preparation assistants Manufacturing labourers Mining and construction labourers Other elementary workers Refuse workers Transport and storage labourers Vehicle, window, laundry and other hand cleaning workers

61 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Table A7 Shortages in the EU Member States (24, Iceland and Norway) total number of occupation mentions (ISCO-08 3-digit) Managers No. of mentions Professionals No. of mentions Associate professionals Manufacturing 19 Software 52 Engineering 52 Transport 12 Sales 18 Engineering 30 Sales 30 Clerical support 8 ICT 8 Medical doctors 30 Other health 14 Client information 5 Business 7 Other health 24 Nursing 13 General office 3 Professional services 7 Electrotechnology 22 Manufacturing and const. 12 Numerical 3 Retail and wholesale 5 Database and network 20 Financial 11 Other 6 No. of mentions Hotel and restaurant 3 Nursing 20 ICT 10 Other 4 Finance 12 Process control 8 Secondary ed teachers 12 Artistic, cultural, culinary 7 Social and religious 12 Business 6 Other teaching 10 Medical and pharma 5 Primary school teachers 10 Ship and aircraft 5 Other 43 Other 14 Clerical No. of mentions Personal and sales No. of mentions Craft No. of mentions Operatives No. of mentions Elementary Personal care 18 Building 33 Heavy truck drivers 19 Cleaners 10 Other sales 15 Electrical 29 Assemblers 14 Construction 8 Shop sales 14 Building frame 28 Textile 14 Food preparation 7 Cooks 13 Welders 28 Mobile plant 13 Other elementary 7 Waiters 13 Toolmakers 25 Car, van drivers 5 Refuse 7 Child care 6 Food processing 20 Chemical 5 Agricultural 5 Hairdressers 6 Machinery 19 Metal processing 5 Manufacturing 3 Housekeeping 5 Garment 10 Stationary plant 5 Window cleaning 3 Other personal 5 Painters 9 Locomotive engine 3 Other 3 Protective 5 Other craft 5 Rubber, plastic 3 Other 4 Cabinet makers 5 Other 5 Other 8 No. of mentions

62 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table A8 Surpluses in the EU Member States (24, Iceland and Norway) total number of occupation mentions (ISCO-08 3-digit) No. of No. of No. of No. of Managers Professionals Associate professionals Clerical mentions mentions mentions mentions Senior officials 6 Social and religious 18 Artistic, cultural, culinary 11 Client information 14 Professional services 4 Artist 14 Legal, social and religious 9 General office 10 Other 12 Architects, planners, surveyors 11 Physical and engineering 7 Other clerical support 8 Sales, marketing 10 Telecommunications a 6 Secretaries (general) 7 Other teaching 9 Administrative 5 Tellers 6 Legal 7 Financial 5 Keyboard 4 Life science 7 Life science 5 Transport 4 Administration 6 Regulatory government 5 Numerical 3 Finance 5 Sales and purchasing 5 Librarians 5 Other 21 Primary school teachers 5 Authors, journalists 4 Other health 4 Other 22 No. of No. of No. of No. of Service occupations Craft Operatives Elementary mentions mentions mentions mentions Shop salespersons 18 Building frame 16 Assemblers 5 Construction 10 Hairdressers 12 Building finishers 12 Car, van drivers 4 Cleaners 9 Personal care 11 Printing 8 Metal processing 4 Transport 9 Protective services 10 Food processing 7 Stationary plant 4 Food preparation 6 Waiters 10 Painters 7 Textile 3 Manufacturing 6 Child care 7 Cabinet makers 7 Other 10 Agricultural 5 Cashiers 6 Garment 6 Other elementary 5 Other personal 6 Machinery mechanics 6 Refuse workers 5 Housekeeping 5 Welders 4 Window cleaners 5 Other sales 5 Other 12 Other

63 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Table A9 Shortages in the EU Member States (24, Iceland and Norway) number of PES mentioning shortages at (ISCO-08 3-digit) Clerical No. of Managers No. of PES Professionals No. of PES Technicians No. of PES PES Business 4 Administration 5 Administrative secretaries 3 Client information 4 Hotel and restaurant 3 Architects, planners, surveyors 4 Artistic, cultural and culinary 6 General office 3 ICT 6 Authors, journalists and linguists 4 Business services 6 Keyboard 2 Legislators and senior officials 1 Creative artists 2 Financial 8 Transport 8 Manufacturing, construction 6 Database and network 10 ICT 9 Numerical clerks 3 Other services 2 Electrotechnology 9 Legal, social and religious 3 Other clerical support 3 Agriculture 1 Engineering 13 Life science 1 Secretaries (general) 2 Professional services 3 Finance professionals 9 Medical and pharma 3 Tellers 2 Retail and wholesale 3 Legal professionals 1 Manufacturing and construction 6 Sales, marketing 8 Librarians, 1 Nursing 9 Life science professionals 3 Other health 8 Mathematicians, actuaries 1 Science 12 Medical doctors 16 Process control 3 Nursing 13 Regulatory government 1 Other health 10 Sales and purchasing 17 Other teaching 7 Ship and aircraft 3 Paramedical 1 Sports and fitness 1 Science 3 Telecommunications 3 Primary school teachers 8 Sales, marketing 5 Secondary education teachers 9 Social and religious 9 Software developers 21 University teachers 1 Vocational teachers 4 Service and sales No. of PES Craft No. of PES Operators No. of PES Elementary No. of PES Housekeeping 4 toolmakers 16 Assemblers 9 Agricultural 4 Cashiers 1 Building finishers 13 Car, van drivers 5 Cleaners 9 Child care 4 Building frame 16 Chemical 5 Food preparation 5 Cooks 12 Electrical equipment 15 Food 2 Manufacturing 3 Hairdressers 5 Electronics 3 Heavy truck drivers 14 Mining and construction 7 Other personal 4 Food processing 10 Locomotive engine drivers 2 Other elementary 4 Other sales 9 Garment 5 Metal processing 3 Refuse workers 3 Personal care 10 Machinery mechanics 12 mineral processing 1 Street service workers 1 Protective services 5 Other craft 5 Mobile plant 9 Transport and storage 2 Shop salespersons 12 Painters 9 stationary plant 4 Vehicle, window cleaners 3 Street salespersons 1 Printing 3 Rubber, plastic 2 Travel attendants 1 Welders 16 Ships' deck 1 Waiters 9 Wood 3 Textile 5 Wood processing

64 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Table A10 Surpluses in the EU Member States (24, Iceland and Norway) number of PES mentioning surpluses at (ISCO digit) Managers No of PES Professionals No of PES Technicians No of PES Clerical No of PES Business 2 Administration 3 Secretaries 4 Client information 7 Commissioned armed forces 1 Architects, planners, surveyors 7 Artistic, cultural and culinary 5 General office 10 Hotel and restaurant 1 Authors, journalists 3 Business 2 Keyboard 4 Legislators and senior officials 2 Artists 5 Financial 3 transport 4 Managing directors 2 Database and network 1 ICT 2 Numerical clerks 3 Manufacturing, construction 1 Electrotechnology engineers 2 Legal, social and religious 5 Other clerical support 4 Other services 1 Engineering professionals 3 Life science 3 Secretaries 6 Professional services 3 Finance 3 Medical and pharma 1 Tellers 5 Sales, marketing 2 Legal 5 Manufacturing and construction 1 Librarians 4 Nursing 1 Life science 4 Other health 2 Mathematicians, actuaries 2 Science 4 Nursing 1 Process control 2 Other health 3 Regulatory government 3 Other teaching 5 Sales and purchasing 3 Science 1 Sports and fitness 2 Primary school teachers 4 Telecommunications 3 Sales, marketing 6 Veterinary 2 Secondary education teachers 3 Social and religious 7 Software developers 2 University teachers 3 Veterinarians 2 Vocational teachers 1 Service and sales No of PES Craft No of PES Operators No of PES Elementary No of PES Housekeeping 4 Toolmakers 1 Assemblers 2 Agricultural 5 Cashiers 5 Building finishers 3 Car, van drivers 3 Cleaners 5 Child care 5 Building frame 6 Chemical 1 Food preparation 6 Cooks 2 Electrical 2 Food 1 Manufacturing 5 Hairdressers 6 Electronics 1 Heavy truck drivers 2 Mining and construction 6 Other personal 2 Food processing 4 Metal processing 1 Other elementary 4 Other sales 3 Garment 4 Mineral processing 2 Refuse workers 2 Personal care 6 Handicraft 2 Mobile plant 1 Transport 5 Protective 6 Machinery mechanics 3 Other stationary plant 2 Vehicle, window cleaning 2 Shop salespersons 7 Other craft 1 Rubber, plastic 1 Street salespersons 1 Painters 5 Textile 1 Travel attendants 3 Printing 5 Waiters 5 Sheet metal 2 Wood

65 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 ANNEX 2 LFS DATA AND METHODOLOGY The methodology for the analyses of data from the European Labour Force Survey (LFS) to identify shortage occupations consists of the following steps. Firstly, all occupations in the armed forces and the elementary, agricultural and management major group of occupations were excluded from the data. The total number of shortage occupations in these groups identified by the PES was less than 14%, and with the exception of the elementary occupations, most of the PES did not identify any shortages in these major groups of occupations. 18 This process resulted in a total of 37 occupations of the total of 130 ISCO 3-digit occupations being excluded from the study. All of the remaining 93 occupations were included in the analysis when total employment across all countries was the focus of the analysis. However, when the analyses was applied to each individual country, the number of occupations which had sufficient values to be statistically reliable declined to a maximum of 65. Table A11. The LFS dataset used in the analysis of shortage occupations 1-digit group of occupations No. of 3-digit occupations No. employed (millions) No. of 3-digit occupations covered in the analysis Number employed (millions) covered Armed forces Managers Professionals Technicians/assoc. professionals Clerical support workers Sales and services workers Skilled Agricultural, forestry Craft and related trades Plant and machine operatives Elementary Total The distribution of the 93 occupations is shown in Table A11. As many of the excluded occupations had rather low employment numbers, these 93 occupations covered over 80% of employment at the European level. This number is considerably larger than the number used in other recent similar studies Armed forces (0%), agricultural (1%), management (6%) and elementary (7%). Only half the PES identified any shortages in management occupations and only one in agricultural occupations. Elementary occupations are unskilled and therefore they were excluded from the analyses of shortage occupations, but they are included in the analyses of surplus occupations. 19 In a recent study on developing quantitative indicators prepared for CEDEFOP, the contractors recommended the exclusion of four major occupation groups; 4, 5, 8 and 9 from the ranking of skill shortages on the basis that these occupations are low skilled

66 Table A12. List of occupations analysed by LFS indicators Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 ISC Physical and earth science professionals 212 Mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians 213 Life science professionals 214 Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology) 215 Electrotechnology engineers 216 Architects, planners, surveyors and designers 221 Medical doctors 222 Nursing and midwifery professionals 223 Traditional and complementary medicine professionals 224 Paramedical practitioners 225 Veterinarians 226 Other health professionals 231 University and higher education teachers 232 Vocational education teachers 233 Secondary education teachers 234 Primary school and early childhood teachers 235 Other teaching professionals 241 Finance professionals 242 Administration professionals 243 Sales, marketing and public relations professionals 251 Software and applications developers and analysts 252 Database and network professionals 261 Legal professionals 262 Librarians, archivists and curators 263 Social and religious professionals 264 Authors, journalists and linguists 265 Creative and performing artists 311 Physical and engineering science technicians 312 Mining, manufacturing and construction supervisors 313 Process control technicians 314 Life science technicians and related associate professionals 315 Ship and aircraft controllers and technicians 321 Medical and pharmaceutical technicians 322 Nursing and midwifery associate professionals 323 Traditional and complementary medicine associate professionals 324 Veterinary technicians and assistants 325 Other health associate professionals 331 Financial and mathematical associate professionals 332 Sales and purchasing agents and brokers 333 Business services agents 334 Administrative and specialised secretaries 335 Regulatory government associate professionals 341 Legal, social and religious associate professionals 342 Sports and fitness workers 343 Artistic, cultural and culinary associate professionals 351 Information and communications technology operations and user support technicians 352 Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians 411 General office clerks 412 Secretaries (general) 413 Keyboard operators 421 Tellers, money collectors and related clerks 422 Client information workers 431 Numerical clerks 432 Material-recording and transport clerks 441 Other clerical support workers 511 Travel attendants, conductors and guides 512 Cooks 513 Waiters and bartenders 514 Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers 515 Building and housekeeping supervisors 516 Other personal services workers 521 Street and market salespersons 522 Shop salespersons 523 Cashiers and ticket clerks 524 Other sales workers 531 Child care workers and teachers' aides 532 Personal care workers in health services 541 Protective services workers 711 Building frame and related trades workers 712 Building finishers and related trades workers 713 Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers 721 Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders, and related workers 722 Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers 723 Machinery mechanics and repairers 731 Handicraft workers 732 Printing trades workers 741 Electrical equipment installers and repairers 742 Electronics and telecommunications installers and repairers 751 Food processing and related trades workers 752 Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers 753 Garment and related trades workers 754 Other craft and related workers 811 Mining and mineral processing plant operators 812 Metal processing and finishing plant operators 813 Chemical and photographic products plant and machine operators 814 Rubber, plastic and paper products machine operators 815 Textile, fur and leather products machine operators 816 Food and related products machine operators 817 Wood processing and papermaking plant operators 818 Other stationary plant and machine operators 821 Assemblers 831 Locomotive engine drivers and related workers 832 Car, van and motorcycle drivers 833 Heavy truck and bus drivers 834 Mobile plant operators 835 Ships' deck crews and related workers

67 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 ANNEX 3 THE RATIO OF UNEMPLOYED TO NEW HIRES ISCO-08 title UE Recruited in the last year (<12 months) Ratio of UE to new recruits Street and related service workers Agricultural, forestry and fishery labourers Mining and construction labourers Creative and performing artists Refuse workers Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers Street and market salespersons Building frame and related trades workers Mining, manufacturing and construction supervisors Ships' deck crews and related workers Market gardeners and crop growers Managing directors and chief executives Travel attendants, conductors and guides Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers Manufacturing labourers Domestic, hotel and office cleaners and helpers Other stationary plant and machine operators Mobile plant operators Building finishers and related trades workers Textile, fur and leather products machine operators Garment and related trades workers Chemical and photographic products plant and machine operators Food processing and related trades workers Vehicle, window, laundry and other hand cleaning workers Sheet and structural metal workers, moulders and welders, and related workers Waiters and bartenders Cooks Metal processing and finishing plant operators Printing trades workers Forestry and related workers Protective services workers Transport and storage labourers Fishery workers, hunters and trappers Material-recording and transport clerks Process control technicians Mining and mineral processing plant operators Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers Building and housekeeping supervisors Secretaries (general) Assemblers

68 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 Other craft and related workers Shop salespersons Electrical equipment installers and repairers Food and related products machine operators Other sales workers Food preparation assistants Mixed crop and animal producers Car, van and motorcycle drivers Client information workers Sports and fitness workers Handicraft workers Life science technicians and related associate professionals Keyboard operators Electronics and telecommunications installers and repairers Other personal services workers Vocational education teachers Other teaching professionals General office clerks Authors, journalists and linguists Hairdressers, beauticians and related workers Animal producers Other elementary workers Machinery mechanics and repairers Ship and aircraft controllers and technicians Hotel and restaurant managers Cashiers and ticket clerks Retail and wholesale trade managers Sales, marketing and development managers Physical and engineering science technicians Administrative and specialised secretaries Sales and purchasing agents and brokers Rubber, plastic and paper products machine operators Artistic, cultural and culinary associate professionals Numerical clerks Other services managers Child care workers and teachers' aides Heavy truck and bus drivers Business services and administration managers Information and communications technology service managers Regulatory government associate professionals Life science professionals Wood processing and papermaking plant operators Locomotive engine drivers and related workers Legal professionals Personal care workers in health services Physical and earth science professionals Street vendors (excluding food) Architects, planners, surveyors and designers

69 Bottleneck Occupations 2016 Other clerical support workers Business services agents Manufacturing, mining, construction, and distribution managers Tellers, money collectors and related clerks Librarians, archivists and curators Medical and pharmaceutical technicians University and higher education teachers Information and communications technology operations and user support technicians Legal, social and religious associate professionals Financial and mathematical associate professionals Sales, marketing and public relations professionals Finance professionals Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology) Other health associate professionals Social and religious professionals Professional services managers Nursing and midwifery associate professionals Legislators and senior officials Database and network professionals Administration professionals Primary school and early childhood teachers Electrotechnology engineers Secondary education teachers Other health professionals Nursing and midwifery professionals Software and applications developers and analysts Medical doctors No occupation No answer Total

70 Bottlenecks Occupations 2016 HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONS Free publications: one copy: via EU Bookshop ( more than one copy or posters/maps: from the European Union s representations ( from the delegations in non-eu countries ( by contacting the Europe Direct service ( or calling (free phone number from anywhere in the EU) (*). (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). Priced publications: via EU Bookshop ( Priced subscriptions: via one of the sales agents of the Publications Office of the European Union (

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