DoD Command and Control Research Strategic Plan Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors

Transcription

1 DRAFT DoD Command and Control Research Strategic Plan Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors Version 1 April 21, 2010 Dr. David S. Alberts Director, Research OASD/NII DoD CIO This is a draft of a document that is being developed collaboratively with inputs from colleagues within OASD/NII DoDCIO, others in DoD, our international partners, industry, and academia. This Plan will 1) identify the C2-related challenges we collectively believe are on the critical path to improving the ability of our organizations to meet the mission challenges of the 21 st Century, 2) assess our ability to meet these C2 challenges with existing theory, knowledge, methods and tools, and 3) provide a set of prioritized research goals and objectives designed to provide the intellectual and empirical foundation upon which to build the C2-related concepts and capabilities needed for Complex Endeavors. Version 1 provides an initial discussion of critical C2 challenges and an outline for the Plan. While a variety of CCRP publications (books and the International C2 Journal) and NATO Research Group reports contain material that will ultimately be incorporated into Parts II, III, and IV of this Plan, the incorporation of this material has be deferred to give the community a chance to contribute their thoughts. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 1

2 DoD Command and Control Research Strategic Plan - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors Introduction Background Throughout history military planners have focused their investments and preparations on what they believed would be their next mission. In the last half of the 20th Century, the US and its NATO Allies focused upon defending the Fulda Gap, a region along the border of the former East Germany, and on nuclear deterrence. They believed they knew who their adversary would be, where the battle would be fought, and what kind of battle it would be. If history has taught us anything, it has taught us that we are, more often than not, preparing for the wrong war. Our ability to predict has been provably poor. In the decades since the break-up of the Soviet Union, we have sought to find a new existential threat from another Super Power or Peer Competitor to Global Terrorism to focus and guide our planning efforts. We are searching in the wrong place. For reasons that are explained in recent works (see Alberts 2010, Wall Street Journal), the adversary we should be preparing for is ourselves. Specifically, it is our lack of Agility that poses an existential threat. The DoD Command and Control Research Program (CCRP) mission is to: 1) Develop an understanding of the national security implications of the Information Age 2) Improve the state of the art and practice of Command and Control by developing, experimenting with, analyzing, and articulating new, networked-enabled C2 concepts and capabilities, and 3) Prepare future DoD leaders for the 21 st Century by improving their understanding of C2-related issues, concepts, and capabilities. The CCRP undertakes a set of research, educational, and community initiatives designed to raise awareness of critical C2 challenges and to explore new approaches to accomplishing the functions traditionally associated with command and control. This strategic research plan has been developed to identify critical C2 challenges and the priority research initiatives needed to meet these challenges. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 2

3 Plan Overview Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan Draft This C2 Research Strategic Plan has four parts. Part I reviews the nature of 21 st Century missions, their implications for command and control, and critical C2-related challenges. Part II is a review and an assessment of the state of the art and practice of command and control. Gaps in theory are identified along with impediments to our ability to conduct appropriate analysis and experimentation. Shortfalls in C2 practice that have adversely affected mission performance are also identified. Part III identifies priority research that is needed to provide the understandings and intellectual foundation necessary to develop needed C2 approaches and build needed C2 capabilities. Part IV will identify on-going and planned research efforts that are, will be, or are related to the initiatives identified in Part III. PART I: Critical 21 st Century C2 Challenges 21 st Century Missions To say that we cannot adequately predict our next mission challenge is not the same as saying that we know nothing about the nature of the missions we will be asked to undertake. Actually we know a great deal about the challenges we will face. We know that we will be participants in Complex Endeavors (footnotes). In order to succeed in these Complex Endeavors desirable outcomes must be achieved in multiple, interrelated domains of interest including security, economic, political and social domains. In order to achieve such a broad set of interrelated objectives, a collective, comprised of a large number of disparate entities, needs to be focused. Then their efforts need to converge on this set of desired outcomes. Achieving the focus and convergence necessary requires new approaches to what is traditionally called command and control, governance, or management. So as to rid ourselves of the baggage associated with traditional approaches to command and control, governance, and management we will use the term focus and convergence (see footnotes) to refer to the structures, processes and practices that are designed to accomplish these functions. Complex Endeavors are also characterized by an unprecedented amount of complexity. This complexity comes from both the need to achieve desired outcomes in multiple, interrelated domains and the need for a heterogeneous collective. Thus, there are two things we know about future missions. First, we can count on a need to operate in a complex environment and second, we count on not going it alone, but being a part of a collective. Both have profound implications for command and control. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 3

4 Implications for Command and Control Complex Endeavors have profound implications for Command and Control. The concepts of Command and Control (for military organizations) and Management are associated with a set of assumptions about the nature of a military or business organization. Fundamental to both is the existence of a chain of command with someone in charge. It is further assumed that these organizations will have some intent determined and articulated by their leadership. Successful organizations, those that have adapted to their competitive spaces, can be expected to have developed an understanding of their environments, have become familiar with the tasks they need to accomplish, and have developed the expertise required. They can also be expected to have allocated responsibilities in an appropriate manner and have developed appropriate information sources. The systems they have developed can be expected to provide access to information to those that require it to discharge their responsibilities. To be successful in a competitive space, organizations must have optimized themselves to deliver the products and services they provide in an effective and efficient manner. Complex Endeavors, which require the ability to focus a large collection of disparate entities and converge on a set of diverse, inter-related effects have a set of characteristics that violate some of the fundamental assumptions upon which current command and control and management concepts and practices are built. First, in the case of a Collective, there will not be a single intent. Rather, the intent of a Collective will be an emergent property of the intents of individual contributing entities. Each entity will need to make a decision to participate in the Collective. This decision will need to consider not only how closely the other participating entities intents align with their intent but also the consequences of not participating. Developing an articulation of Collective Intent is a key element of focusing a Collective. Keeping a Collective together, that is, keeping key members from pulling out as circumstances change and/or keeping key members from imposing constraints that limit effective action will, at times, be a considerable challenge. Even with a reasonably coherent Collective Intent, a Collective will not have a unified chain of command. In fact, it will have many chains of command and multiple planning and resource allocation processes. While aspects of the situation may be familiar to all of the entities, other aspects of the situation will be unfamiliar. Given the propensity of entities to develop informationrelated capabilities that support the familiar, each entity will lack some critical information sources and expertise. Information sharing and collaboration, something that many organizations do well within their own organizations, need to be expanded to Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 4

5 include interactions with other entities. Currently few organizations, if any, have the infostructure or processes in place to do this in the context of Complex Endeavors. Achieving Collective Focus, while critical, is not sufficient to succeed. The individual entities need to synchronize the actions they take (or do not take) in a dynamic manner. This requires the development of shared awareness and the existence of appropriate approaches to command and control (or management) in each of the entities. Thus, not only is a suitable approach needed to focus a Collective; but each entity needs to have implemented an compatible approach. Thus entities participating in Collective may need to adopt different command and control / management approaches and processes than those that they have developed for themselves. Complex Endeavors are also characterized by the complexity of the environments in which they operate. This complexity arises, in part, because the effects that need to be created are manifest in multiple inter-related domains. The concept of control, a basis for traditional approaches to organization and the ability to predict or estimate probabilities and likely outcomes, a basis for traditional decision-making, is not applicable for these endeavors. In the case of Complex Endeavors, prediction is all but impossible and control is a dangerous illusion. Thus the implications of Complex Endeavors for command and control are profound. Simply put, they severely challenge, and at times, invalid traditional concepts and approaches. Complex Endeavors take us out of our comfort zone and make our expertise less relevant. Critical C2 Challenges Given that traditional approaches to command and control are not up to the task for the missions of the 21 st Century, the critical C2 challenges we face in the 21 st Century are related to: 1. Developing an approach to Collective Focus and Convergence that accomplishing the functions we associate with command and control or management. 2. Developing new approaches to Entity command and control that enable entities to effectively participate in Collectives. 3. Developing a capability to deal with the lack of predictability and uncertainty that will exist. Agility is the appropriate response to both a lack of predictability and to unfamiliar situations. Thus, the approaches we adopt to achieving both Collective and Entity focus and convergence and the organizations and systems we design and develop to support these approaches will need, above all else, to be agile. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 5

6 These challenges can be expressed in the form of a series of questions that need to be answered. These questions include: Questions about the concept of Agility and its application What is a useful definition of Agility, one that can be applied to people, concepts, approaches, organizations, processes, systems, tools? How do the many capabilities we associate with Agility (e.g. responsiveness, flexibility, robustness, ) relate to one another? How can one measure the Agility of one alternative and compared it to that of another? What are the relative contributions of people, approaches, systems, etc. to overall entity and collective agility? What are the enablers of Agility? What inhibits Agility? What costs are associated with becoming more Agility? What are the risks inherent in a lack of Agility? Is there a specific amount of agility that is required for Complex Endeavors? Questions about potential approaches to Focus and Convergence What makes one approach different from another approach? Are certain approaches inherently more agile? What is the relationship between agile entities and an agile collective? Are certain approaches to F&C more / less susceptible to information-related attacks? Questions about approaches to information-related capabilities How is the agility of an entity collective affected by the extent to which information is available? Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 6

7 Part II: Shortfalls in Theory, Knowledge, Methods and Tools This section assesses the ability of existing theory, knowledge, evidence, metrics, analysis methods and tools to support the development and exploration of Agile Command and Control in the context of Complex Endeavors. Gaps in Theory Lack of Analyses Capability Lack of Experimentation and Evidence Shortfalls in Practice Part III: Priority C2 Research Initiatives Given the critical C2 Challenges identified in Part I of this Strategic Plan, the state of our understandings and our ability to translate these understandings into practice, the following integrated set of three research, analysis, and experimentation initiatives is needed. Initiative 1: Understanding Agility Initiative 2: Understanding Focus and Convergence for Complex Endeavors Initiative 3: Research Community Infrastructure This section provides a statement of objectives and for each of these initiatives and identifies critical path activities and milestones. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 7

8 Campaigns of Research and Experimentation: Understanding Agility Campaigns of Research and Experimentation: Understanding F&C Research Community Infrastructure Part IV: Current and Planned Activities This section will contain known C2 Research community efforts that will contribute to the research and/or infrastructure initiatives identified in Part III. Draft -- Command and Control Research Strategic Plan -- Version 1 8