Kenya Vision 2030: Driving Change in National Development Across Kenya

Transcription

1 Kenya Vision 2030: Driving Change in National Development Across Kenya 23 RD MAY, 2006 Dr. Wahome Gakuru, Director- SS- NESC

2 OUTLINE Context and objectives Proposed approach Project organisation Next steps 1

3 THE ONE OVERIDING PRINCIPLE The Vision should be one that: All Kenyans can identify with; Kenyans can believe in; Kenyans can rally to as they do with the Kenya National Anthem & our National Flag; Is inclusive of Kenya s diverse cultures, religions, races, & geographic areas of interest. Therefore, the Vision 2030 Project is not a Government of the Day project and should be insulated from Political Competition at all times. 2

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5 THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE FROM ACHIEVING THIS VISION IS SIGNIFICANT High growth countries Singapore ( ) Real GDP growth rates % CAGR 9.3 Potential Kenya GDP Nominal, $b 169 Dubai ( ) 8.4 Hong Kong ( ) Chile ( ) Malaysia ( ) Medium growth countries India ( ) Singapore ( ) Malaysia ( ) Potential Kenya GDP/capita* $ 3,065 Opportunity for Kenya to join the ranks of Middleincome countries by 2030 Nigeria ( ) 4.4 South Africa ( ) % Kenya today 464 Kenya ( ) % * Assuming 2% population growth rate similar to period Source: McKinsey; Global Insight 4

6 HOWEVER, A COMPELLING VISION ON ITS OWN IS NOT ENOUGH 1 Developing an aspirational, directional, and inspiring vision around which all stakeholders can rally is a critical first step Vision 5 yrs Destination A Today The strategy must be supported by a realistic and concrete action plan that will ensure that the strategy is delivered Vision 10 yrs Destination B 2 The supporting strategy and plans are crucial to achieve a vision Vision 15 yrs Destination C This vision must absolutely be complemented by a robust and integrated strategy that will help achieve the vision 5

7 A NUMBER OF FACTORS MAKE THIS AN IDEAL TIME TO ACT Positive momentum created by recent economic successes Strong desire to show additional concrete results, especially in the short term THIS IS AN IDEAL TIME TO ACT Clear window of opportunity to rally the country behind a common vision Need for alignment within Country leadership Source: Interviews; Press release 6

8 A MIXED APPROACH BETWEEN PURE STRATEGY AND TACTICS IS CALLED FOR Recommended approach Spectrum of interventions Nature of output End products Advantages Disadvantages Purely tactical Communication campaign 1 month Effective packaging and communication of successes to date and existing projects Can be accomplished quickly Could be beneficial in the short term Not related to the vision Very tactical in nature Shorter term high profile economic intervention 5-6 months Robust diagnostic, contours of sector strategy, and identification of landmark projects Launch of quick wins in the short term Ensures link between the strategy and projects and the vision Will lead to short term (9-12 months) tangible results Economic insights not as deep and comprehensive as in a full country strategy Purely strategic Full country strategy months Comprehensive Significant and diagnostic, robust sustained strategy and detailed economic action plans to impact in the stimulate growth long term across all key sectors of economy Long lead times to tangible improvement results 7

9 OUTLINE Context and objectives Proposed approach Project organisation Next steps 8

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11 PHASE I HIGH LEVEL DIAGNOSTIC AND BENCHMARKING Module Activities End products Portfolio M1 M2 Implications of Vision High level portfolio diagnostic Cascade down macro vision to implications at portfolio and sector levels (e.g., growth, employment, productivity, etc.) Understand key success factors to achieve the vision based on experience from other countries Analyse key socio-economic indicators Benchmark economy to a relevant "peer group as well as relevant aspirational group Identify main barriers to growth by sector PF1 Vision implications for the country and by sector PF2 Portfolio diagnostic with main growth barriers Sectors M3 High level diagnostic of 3-4 key sectors M4 Diagnostic of quick win projects Gather and analyse basic sector data, Leveraging available resources and prior diagnostic studies Understand key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of 3-4 key sectors Define key breakthrough actions for each sector Create shortlist of existing and potential quick win projects across all key sectors Understand progress of each project and key bottlenecks Select 3-5 quick win projects to accelerate (e.g., based on potential impact and level of visibility PF3 High level sector diagnostic PF4 Quick win projects to accelerate 10

12 PHASE II HIGH LEVEL STRATEGIES Module Activities End products Portfolio M5 Portfolio objectives and priorities Prioritise sectors, e.g., based on competitiveness and attractiveness Develop high-level portfolio strategy to achieve overarching vision Understand key linkages, bottlenecks, and inter-dependencies across the identified key sectors (e.g., transversal themes) PF5 Priority sectors and portfolio strategy M6 Contours of sector strategy 3-4 key sectors Perform gap analysis for 3-4 key sectors comparing status quo to overall targets Formulate contours of strategy for 3-4 key sectors in order to close gaps (e.g., key levers, impact of each lever, priority actions) based on international experience and best practices PF6 Contours of strategy for 3-4 key sectors (key levers, impact, and priority actions) for key sectors Sectors M7 Strategy and plans to deliver quick wins Perform in-depth analysis of selected quick win projects to identify actions required to accelerate project Develop robust strategy and concrete implementation plan to ensure successful delivery of project in the short term Align all key stakeholders behind recommended strategy and plan PF7 Robust strategy and concrete plans to successfully deliver on quick win projects 11

13 Phase III MASTERPLAN AND COMMUNICATION/SYNDICATION Module Activities End products M8 Master plan and management approach Develop a detailed master project plan, including activity list, roles and responsibilities, and milestones PF8 Master plan M9 Monitoring and implementation dashboard Create tools to track progress of implementation, with initial focus on quick win projects Monitor results versus targets for quick win projects PF9 Monitoring dashboard focus on quick win projects M10 Resources Analyse required human and financial resources to deliver on the vision Develop options to source required resources PF10 Required resources and options to source them M11 Communication plan Develop overall communication strategy and plan Develop communication material Ensure alignment of all key stakeholders behing strategy, plan, and material Launch communication PF11a Communication strategy, materials and plan PF11b Launch of communication M12 Launch of quick win projects Provide in-depth support to champions of selected quick win projects with project launch Oversee communication campaign surrounding quick wins PF 12 Quick win projects successfully launched 12

14 OUTLINE Context and objectives Proposed approach Project organisation Next steps 13

15 A HIGHLY PARTICIPATIVE PROCESS WILL BE FOLLOWED Decision National Steering Committee (public/private sector members) Relevant Ministers and NESC members Key sector/economic opinion leaders Inter-ministerial Committee key Ministries and Departments Execution 5-10 key managers External support? Core/Technical Team Support Ad hoc sector teams Working team dedicated to specific industries as & When needed Industry specific Sounding Board Relevant administration Opinion leaders 14

16 ASSIGNED ROLES OF THE VARIOUS STAKEHOLDER GROUPS Frequency of Steering committee Decide general orientation, priorities and framework of the project Provide direction to Operational committee Review project progress every 4-6 wks Evaluate the recommendations from the project interventions Once per 4-6 wks Interministerial committee Define the content of the project and provide direction to the Core team Evaluate project progress regularly (every 3-4 weeks) Prepare the communication to the Steering committee Once per 3-4 wks Core/Techn ical Team Assume overall responsibility for quality of recommendations Establish contact with the various parties involved and act as coordinator Actively participate in the day-to-day work and the preparation of recommendations Ensure skill transfer is taking place Interface with experts to obtain views on industry developments and use experts as a sounding board for recommendations Liaise with experts to arrange participation in key meetings and forums Continuous 15

17 OUTLINE Context and objectives Proposed approach Project organisation Progress Made To Date 16

18 Progress To Date We are in the process of putting together the Three Committees to Lead & Supervise the Project; We have advertised a Call for Expression of Interest Inviting leading international Strategic Consulting firms; Are in the process of recruiting a Project Director for the day to day management of the Vision 2030 Project. 17

19 NEXT STEPS Finalize the recruitment of an international firm with extensive experience in helping Governments to transform socio-economically Finalize the Hiring of the Project Director and a Core Team housed at the NESC Finalize the appointment of the National Steering Committee to take charge of the over all leadership of the Vision 2030 project under the chairmanship of H.E. The President 18

20 What is Your Orgns Role of in Vision 2030? Advocacy? Leadership? Support? Planning? Planning? Support? Implementation? Monitoring and and Evaluation? THANK YOU ALL 19